August 23, 2025
UFC Fight Night: Walker vs. Zhang
Card complete. Claude 3/8 (38%) · GPT 6/11 (55%)
All results
Both models agree 5 of 12 fights
Diyar Nurgozhay over Uran Satybaldiev
Both call Decision
Claude 75%
GPT 70%
GPT 70%
Yizha over Westin Wilson
Both call Decision
Claude 61.06%
GPT 75%
GPT 75%
Gauge Young over Maheshate
Both call Decision
Claude 69.185%
GPT 65%
GPT 65%
Lone'er Kavanagh over Charles Johnson
Both call Decision
Claude 63.1%
GPT 63%
GPT 63%
Michel Pereira over Kyle Daukaus
Both call Decision
Claude 56.120000000000005%
GPT 68%
GPT 68%
Double locks: both at 75% or higher 0 fights
Nothing clears the 75% bar from both models. The genie is hedging tonight.
Build your own list 5 match
Diyar Nurgozhay over Uran Satybaldiev
Both call Decision
Claude 75%
GPT 70%
GPT 70%
Yizha over Westin Wilson
Both call Decision
Claude 61.06%
GPT 75%
GPT 75%
Gauge Young over Maheshate
Both call Decision
Claude 69.185%
GPT 65%
GPT 65%
Lone'er Kavanagh over Charles Johnson
Both call Decision
Claude 63.1%
GPT 63%
GPT 63%
Michel Pereira over Kyle Daukaus
Both call Decision
Claude 56.120000000000005%
GPT 68%
GPT 68%
Win confidence is the model's probability that its pick wins: 55 to 64 is a shrug, 65 to 74 is confident, 75 and up is the model betting its reputation.
KO/TKO, Submission, Decision is how the model splits the ways the fight ends, out of 100.
Odds are the sportsbook moneyline with the bookmaker margin removed, so the two percentages sum to 100. When a model's confidence beats the market's implied number, that gap is the value.
Elo is an opponent adjusted rating built from every UFC fight since 1994. Click any Elo number on the card for the full explanation, including what the star means.
FINAL: Johnny Walker by KO/TKO Punches
Walker LLLWW 580d out Mingyang WWW 119d out last 5
Johnny Walker last fought 580 days ago, long layoff
L
vs Volkan Oezdemir · KO/TKO2024-01-20
L
vs Magomed Ankalaev · KO/TKO2024-01-13
L
vs Magomed Ankalaev · CNC2023-10-21
W
vs Anthony Smith · U-DEC2023-05-13
W
vs Paul Craig · KO/TKO2023-01-21
Zhang Mingyang last fought 119 days ago
W
vs Anthony Smith · KO/TKO Elbows2025-04-26
W
vs Ozzy Diaz · 2024-11-23
W
vs Brendson Ribeiro · KO/TKO2024-02-17
GPT MISS
Zhang Mingyang
67%win confidence
KO/TKO 70%
Submission 5%
Decision 25%
Zhang Mingyang's striking output (9.23 SLPM at 57% accuracy) is significantly higher and more accurate than Johnny Walker's, and Zhang absorbs more but defends at a higher rate. Walker's durability has been questionable against powerful strikers, and Zhang's aggressive style and finishing instinct a...
FINAL: Aljamain Sterling by U-DEC
Ortega LWLLW 511d out Sterling LWLWW 258d out last 5
Brian Ortega last fought 511 days ago, long layoff
L
vs Diego Lopes · U-DEC2024-03-30
W
vs Yair Rodriguez · SUB2024-02-24
L
vs Yair Rodriguez · KO/TKO2022-07-16
L
vs Alexander Volkanovski · U-DEC2021-09-25
W
vs Chan Sung Jung · U-DEC2020-10-17
Aljamain Sterling last fought 258 days ago
L
vs Movsar Evloev · U-DEC2024-12-07
W
vs Calvin Kattar · U-DEC2024-04-13
L
vs Sean O'Malley · KO/TKO2023-08-19
W
vs Henry Cejudo · S-DEC2023-05-06
W
vs TJ Dillashaw · KO/TKO2022-10-22
GPT HIT
Aljamain Sterling
77%win confidence
KO/TKO 10%
Submission 18%
Decision 72%
Sterling holds clear statistical advantages in strike differential (+2.31 vs Ortega's -2.51), striking accuracy (52% vs 37%), and striking defense (58% vs 49%). His higher output and superior ability to avoid damage (SApM 2.3 vs 6.59) suggest he will control the pace at range. While Ortega is danger...
Pavlovich WLLWW 202d out Cortes-Acosta WWWLW 587d out last 5
Sergei Pavlovich last fought 202 days ago
W
vs Jairzinho Rozenstruik · U-DEC2025-02-01
L
vs Alexander Volkov · U-DEC2024-01-20
L
vs Tom Aspinall · KO/TKO2023-11-11
W
vs Curtis Blaydes · KO/TKO2023-04-22
W
vs Tai Tuivasa · KO/TKO2022-12-03
Waldo Cortes-Acosta last fought 587 days ago, long layoff
W
vs Andrei Arlovski · U-DEC2024-01-13
W
vs Robelis Despaigne · U-DEC2023-12-16
W
vs Lukasz Brzeski · KO/TKO2023-08-26
L
vs Marcos Rogerio de Lima · U-DEC2023-04-29
W
vs Chase Sherman · U-DEC2022-11-19
GPT
Sergei Pavlovich
72%win confidence
KO/TKO 65%
Submission 3%
Decision 32%
Pavlovich is an elite power puncher with a proven track record of early knockouts against top-tier heavyweights. While Cortes-Acosta displays solid striking volume, high accuracy, and a positive strike differential, he has not faced anyone with Pavlovich's finishing ability. Pavlovich's reach advant...
FINAL: Sumudaerji by U-DEC
Sumudaerji WLLLW 133d out Borjas WLL 147d out last 5
Sumudaerji last fought 133 days ago
W
vs Mitch Raposo · S-DEC2025-04-12
L
vs Charles Johnson · U-DEC2024-04-27
L
vs Tim Elliott · SUB2023-12-09
L
vs Matt Schnell · SUB2022-07-16
W
vs Zarrukh Adashev · U-DEC2021-01-20
Kevin Borjas last fought 147 days ago
W
vs Ronaldo Rodriguez · U-DEC2025-03-29
L
vs Alessandro Costa · KO/TKO2023-12-09
L
vs Joshua Van · U-DEC2023-11-11
GPT HIT
Sumudaerji
74%win confidence
KO/TKO 18%
Submission 7%
Decision 75%
Sumudaerji holds a significant edge in striking accuracy, strike differential, and defensive metrics. He absorbs far fewer strikes than Borjas and lands at a higher accuracy rate. Borjas' defensive liabilities, high strikes absorbed per minute, and lack of grappling or submission threat make it like...
FINAL: Taiyilake Nueraji by KO/TKO Elbows
Nueraji Crosbie LL 552d out last 5
Taiyilake Nueraji no UFC fights on record
Kiefer Crosbie last fought 552 days ago, long layoff
L
vs Sam Patterson · SUB2024-02-17
L
vs Kevin Jousset · SUB2023-09-09
Claude MISS
Kiefer Crosbie
60.629999999999995%win confidence
KO/TKO 25%
Submission 15%
Decision 60%
Simplified prediction due to API limitations. Basic statistical comparison used.
GPT HIT
Taiyilake Nueraji
63%win confidence
KO/TKO 18%
Submission 2%
Decision 80%
Nueraji's significantly higher striking volume (11.01 SLpM) and superior striking differential (+3.62) suggest he can outwork Crosbie over three rounds. While Crosbie is more accurate (64% vs 48%), Nueraji's pace and defensive edge (58% vs 54% StrDef) give him the upper hand in a pure striking affai...
FINAL: Gauge Young by U-DEC
Maheshate WWLLW 272d out Young L 119d out last 5
Maheshate last fought 272 days ago
W
vs Nikolas Motta · 2024-11-23
W
vs Gabriel Benitez · S-DEC2024-04-27
L
vs Viacheslav Borshchev · KO/TKO2023-05-20
L
vs Rafa Garcia · U-DEC2022-12-17
W
vs Steve Garcia · KO/TKO2022-06-11
Gauge Young last fought 119 days ago
L
vs Evan Elder · U-DEC2025-04-26
Claude HIT
Gauge Young
69.185%win confidence
KO/TKO 25%
Submission 15%
Decision 60%
Simplified prediction due to API limitations. Basic statistical comparison used.
GPT HIT
Gauge Young
65%win confidence
KO/TKO 20%
Submission 5%
Decision 75%
Gauge Young enters with a significant striking accuracy advantage (56% vs 28%) and higher output (4.27 SLpM). Both fighters are defensively vulnerable, absorbing over 5 strikes per minute, but Young's accuracy and volume should allow him to outpoint Maheshate in a likely striking battle, given neith...
FINAL: Charles Johnson by KO/TKO Punch
Johnson LWWWW 174d out Kavanagh WW 154d out last 5
Charles Johnson last fought 174 days ago
L
vs Ramazan Temirov · U-DEC2025-03-01
W
vs Sumudaerji · U-DEC2024-04-27
W
vs Azat Maksum · U-DEC2024-02-03
W
vs Joshua Van · KO/TKO2024-02-03
W
vs Jake Hadley · U-DEC2023-12-16
Lone'er Kavanagh last fought 154 days ago
W
vs Felipe dos Santos · U-DEC2025-03-22
W
vs Jose Ochoa · 2024-11-23
Claude MISS
Lone'er Kavanagh
63.1%win confidence
KO/TKO 25%
Submission 15%
Decision 60%
Simplified prediction due to API limitations. Basic statistical comparison used.
GPT MISS
Lone'er Kavanagh
63%win confidence
KO/TKO 16%
Submission 2%
Decision 82%
Kavanagh's superior striking accuracy (66%) and higher strike output (4.97 SLpM) give him an edge in a likely standup battle, especially since neither fighter is a significant grappling threat. Johnson is more defensively sound and has some wrestling ability, but his low takedown accuracy (23%) and ...
FINAL: Rongzhu by U-DEC
Rongzhu WLLWL 195d out Hubbard LWLLL 147d out last 5
Rongzhu last fought 195 days ago
W
vs Kody Steele · U-DEC2025-02-08
L
vs Chris Padilla · KO/TKO2024-03-23
L
vs Ignacio Bahamondes · SUB2022-02-26
W
vs Brandon Jenkins · KO/TKO2021-09-18
L
vs Kazula Vargas · U-DEC2021-04-24
Austin Hubbard last fought 147 days ago
L
vs MarQuel Mederos · S-DEC2025-03-29
W
vs Michal Figlak · U-DEC2024-04-27
L
vs Alexander Hernandez · S-DEC2024-04-13
L
vs Kurt Holobaugh · SUB2023-08-19
L
vs Vinc Pichel · U-DEC2021-08-21
Claude HIT
Rongzhu
59.665000000000006%win confidence
KO/TKO 25%
Submission 15%
Decision 60%
Simplified prediction due to API limitations. Basic statistical comparison used.
GPT MISS
Austin Hubbard
65%win confidence
KO/TKO 10%
Submission 5%
Decision 85%
Hubbard's superior striking defense and more favorable strike differential suggest he will absorb less damage while maintaining competitive output. Rongzhu is more aggressive but absorbs more strikes than he lands, and Hubbard's takedown defense should limit Rongzhu's wrestling success. Both have lo...
FINAL: Kyle Daukaus by KO/TKO Elbows
Pereira LLWWW 119d out Daukaus LLWLL 993d out last 5
Michel Pereira last fought 119 days ago
L
vs Abus Magomedov · U-DEC2025-04-26
L
vs Anthony Hernandez · KO/TKO2024-04-27
W
vs Michal Oleksiejczuk · SUB2024-03-09
W
vs Ihor Potieria · SUB2023-12-09
W
vs Andre Petroski · KO/TKO2023-10-14
Kyle Daukaus last fought 993 days ago, long layoff
L
vs Eryk Anders · KO/TKO2022-12-03
L
vs Roman Dolidze · KO/TKO2022-06-18
W
vs Jamie Pickett · SUB2022-02-19
L
vs Kevin Holland · Overturned2021-10-02
L
vs Phil Hawes · U-DEC2021-05-08
Claude MISS
Michel Pereira
56.120000000000005%win confidence
KO/TKO 25%
Submission 15%
Decision 60%
Simplified prediction due to API limitations. Basic statistical comparison used.
GPT MISS
Michel Pereira
68%win confidence
KO/TKO 18%
Submission 12%
Decision 70%
Pereira's superior striking accuracy, volume, and defensive metrics give him an advantage in a likely standup-heavy fight. Daukaus presents a significant submission threat, but his low takedown accuracy and Pereira's strong takedown defense reduce his chances of controlling the fight on the ground. ...
FINAL: Yizha by KO/TKO Punches
Yizha LL 518d out Wilson LWL 587d out last 5
Yizha last fought 518 days ago, long layoff
L
vs Gabriel Santos · U-DEC2024-03-23
L
vs JeongYeong Lee · S-DEC2023-02-04
Westin Wilson last fought 587 days ago, long layoff
L
vs Jean Silva · KO/TKO2024-01-13
W
vs Jeka Saragih · SUB2024-01-13
L
vs Joanderson Brito · KO/TKO2023-07-01
Claude HIT
Yizha
61.06%win confidence
KO/TKO 25%
Submission 15%
Decision 60%
Simplified prediction due to API limitations. Basic statistical comparison used.
GPT HIT
Yizha
75%win confidence
KO/TKO 10%
Submission 15%
Decision 75%
Yizha shows better striking metrics, higher takedown accuracy and defense, and absorbs significantly less damage than Wilson. Wilson's high submission average is offset by low takedown accuracy and poor defensive stats, making it unlikely he can control Yizha long enough to secure a finish. Yizha's ...
FINAL: SuYoung You by U-DEC
Long WL 272d out You WL 161d out last 5
Xiao Long last fought 272 days ago
W
vs Quang Le · 2024-11-23
L
vs ChangHo Lee · S-DEC2024-01-20
SuYoung You last fought 161 days ago
W
vs AJ Cunningham · U-DEC2025-03-15
L
vs Baergeng Jieleyisi · 2024-11-23
Claude MISS
Xiao Long
63.605000000000004%win confidence
KO/TKO 25%
Submission 15%
Decision 60%
Simplified prediction due to API limitations. Basic statistical comparison used.
GPT HIT
SuYoung You
74%win confidence
KO/TKO 7%
Submission 19%
Decision 74%
SuYoung You's elite grappling volume (6 takedowns per fight, 63% accuracy) should dictate the pace and location of the fight. While Xiao Long has a clear striking advantage in both volume and accuracy, his takedown defense (78%) will be tested at a much higher frequency than he's faced before. You's...
FINAL: Uran Satybaldiev by SUB Ezekiel Choke
Satybaldiev L 140d out Nurgozhay L 161d out last 5
Uran Satybaldiev last fought 140 days ago
L
vs Martin Buday · U-DEC2025-04-05
Diyar Nurgozhay last fought 161 days ago
L
vs Brendson Ribeiro · SUB Kimura2025-03-15
Claude MISS
Diyar Nurgozhay
75%win confidence
KO/TKO 25%
Submission 15%
Decision 60%
Simplified prediction due to API limitations. Basic statistical comparison used.
GPT MISS
Diyar Nurgozhay
70%win confidence
KO/TKO 18%
Submission 7%
Decision 75%
Diyar Nurgozhay has a substantial statistical edge, with proven UFC-level output (3.52 SLpM at 52% accuracy, 66% striking defense), excellent distance management, and perfect takedown defense. Satybaldiev's complete lack of UFC stats introduces significant uncertainty about his readiness and effecti...