September 19, 2026
UFC 331: Van vs. Pantoja 2
Live: 2 of 12 results in. Picks are marked hit or miss as each bout ends.
The Genie's read
Van and Pantoja run it back, Tsarukyan draws a puncher, and the prelims are full of fading names
UFC 331 on September 19 is headlined by the flyweight title rematch between Joshua Van, 24 and on a five-fight winning streak, and Alexandre Pantoja, 36 and coming off the first-round knockout loss that cost him the belt. Arman Tsarukyan meets Mauricio Ruffy at lightweight in the co-main, with Ruffy carrying 2026 knockouts of Fiziev and Chandler into a fight against a grappler. Below that the card is defined by long layoffs and short samples: Patricio Pitbull, Gable Steveson, Robelis Despaigne, Casey O'Neill and Dooho Choi all arrive with either thin UFC data or months to years away from the cage.
For bettors
Good spotSeveral bouts have both models and the market on the same favorite at prices between 55% and 75%: Tsarukyan, Choi, Baraniewski, Jourdain and O'Neill. The record says Claude's favorites hit 71.2% at an average 68% price, so this is roughly break-even territory rather than an edge, and there are no double locks at 75% or above on this card. Play favorites at fair prices only and leave the short ones alone.
- Arman Tsarukyan in Arman Tsarukyan vs Mauricio Ruffy: Models 70% and 71%, market 73%. Ruffy's one UFC loss came by submission after being taken down, and Tsarukyan is the better wrestler with a +2.05 strike differential.
- Casey O'Neill in Casey O'Neill vs Eduarda Moura: Models 63% and 66% sit above the 62.5% price. O'Neill triples Moura's striking output and defends 70% of takedowns against a 34% converter.
- Charles Jourdain in Marlon Vera vs Charles Jourdain: Models 62% and 64%, market 66%. Vera has lost four straight decisions, the last two to fighters below the level he used to beat.
- Despaigne at 81% is far above both models (58%, 56%); an 870-day layoff and known cardio issues make this a trap, not a lock.
- Steveson (89.5%) and Gandra (78.6%) are priced on one- and two-fight samples; neither model reaches the market number.
- Elo still favors Pantoja, Vera and Menifield and calls Chikadze-Brito even, so four favorites carry real model disagreement.
- O'Neill (919 days) and Choi (646 days) are favorites returning from very long layoffs; the data cannot price ring rust.
Bout by bout
Joshua Van vs Alexandre PantojaBoth models like Van (57%, 61%), market 54%. Elo still leans Pantoja. Decided by whether Van's 83% takedown defense holds against Pantoja's grappling.
Arman Tsarukyan vs Mauricio RuffyModels 70% and 71% Tsarukyan, market 73%. Ruffy's 86% takedown defense versus Tsarukyan's wrestling decides it; Ruffy's only UFC loss came by rear-naked choke.
Patricio Pitbull vs Dooho ChoiModels 60% and 66% Choi, market 68.5%. Pitbull's -1.84 strike differential against Choi's 646-day layoff. Pitbull needs takedowns on Choi's 59% defense.
Alonzo Menifield vs Iwo BaraniewskiModels 58% and 64% Baraniewski, market 68.5%, Elo favors Menifield. Baraniewski absorbs 8.65 per minute; whether Menifield can counter before getting stopped.
Gable Steveson vs Sean SharafModels 65% and 78% Steveson, market 89.5%. Steveson's one-fight sample versus Sharaf absorbing 15 per minute. Price is too short for the data.
Marlon Vera vs Charles JourdainModels 62% and 64% Jourdain, market 66%, Elo still says Vera. Four straight Vera decision losses versus Jourdain's 46% takedown defense.
Tai Tuivasa vs Robelis DespaigneModels 58% and 56% Despaigne, market 81%. Both models well under the price. Despaigne's 870-day layoff and cardio against Tuivasa's five-fight skid.
Edmen Shahbazyan vs Brunno FerreiraModels 57% and 60% Shahbazyan, market 59%, Elo dead even. Shahbazyan's takedowns against Ferreira's 50% takedown defense decide a genuine coin flip.
Giga Chikadze vs Joanderson BritoModels 66% and 63% Brito, market 75.5%, Elo calls it even. Brito's 67% takedown accuracy against Chikadze's 65% defense and 38-year-old legs.
Casey O'Neill vs Eduarda MouraModels 63% and 66% O'Neill, market 62.5%. O'Neill's 7.89 strikes per minute against Moura's 34% takedown conversion; the 919-day layoff is the risk.
Ryan Gandra vs Ozzy DiazModels 65% and 73% Gandra, market 78.6%. Three straight knockouts by punches on a small sample. Price runs ahead of both models.
Michael Aswell Jr. vs JooSang YooModels 60% and 61% Yoo, no price posted. Aswell's volume and four decision losses against Yoo's accuracy and defense. Watch only.
For the couch
- Van vs Pantoja 2: Van won the first meeting by first-round KO and then went five rounds with Taira. Watch whether Pantoja can get the fight to the mat early, because Van has defended 83% of takedowns.
- Tsarukyan vs Ruffy is the card's clearest style clash. Ruffy has knocked out Fiziev and Chandler this year; Saint Denis showed the counter, take him down and hunt the back.
- Baraniewski is 9-0 with four straight first-round finishes but absorbs 8.65 strikes per minute. Menifield, 38, has the power to make that reckless approach cost him.
- The prelims are a referendum on aging names: Vera on four straight losses, Tuivasa on five, Chikadze 38 and on a three-fight skid. Each faces a younger or fresher opponent.
- Pitbull's UFC numbers (2.77 landed, 4.61 absorbed per minute) are poor; his route against Choi is the takedown, and Choi only defends 59% of them.
Written by claude-fable-5-1 from the picks, prices, form and Elo on this page and Fight Genie's graded record; it is rewritten when the card or the picks change. Not betting advice.
Both models agree 12 of 12 fights
Gable Steveson over Sean Sharaf
Both call KO/TKO
Claude 65%
GPT 78%
GPT 78%
Arman Tsarukyan over Mauricio Ruffy
Claude 70%
GPT 71%
GPT 71%
Ryan Gandra over Ozzy Diaz
Both call KO/TKO
Claude 65%
GPT 73%
GPT 73%
Joanderson Brito over Giga Chikadze
Both call Decision
Claude 66%
GPT 63%
GPT 63%
Casey O'Neill over Eduarda Moura
Both call Decision
Claude 63%
GPT 66%
GPT 66%
Dooho Choi over Patricio Pitbull
Both call Decision
Claude 60%
GPT 66%
GPT 66%
Charles Jourdain over Marlon Vera
Both call Decision
Claude 62%
GPT 64%
GPT 64%
Iwo Baraniewski over Alonzo Menifield
Both call KO/TKO
Claude 58%
GPT 64%
GPT 64%
JooSang Yoo over Michael Aswell Jr.
Both call Decision
Claude 60%
GPT 61%
GPT 61%
Joshua Van over Alexandre Pantoja
Both call Decision
Claude 57%
GPT 61%
GPT 61%
Edmen Shahbazyan over Brunno Ferreira
Claude 57%
GPT 60%
GPT 60%
Robelis Despaigne over Tai Tuivasa
Both call KO/TKO
Claude 58%
GPT 56%
GPT 56%
Double locks: both at 75% or higher 0 fights
Nothing clears the 75% bar from both models. The genie is hedging tonight.
Build your own list 12 match
Gable Steveson over Sean Sharaf
Both call KO/TKO
Claude 65%
GPT 78%
GPT 78%
Arman Tsarukyan over Mauricio Ruffy
Claude 70%
GPT 71%
GPT 71%
Ryan Gandra over Ozzy Diaz
Both call KO/TKO
Claude 65%
GPT 73%
GPT 73%
Joanderson Brito over Giga Chikadze
Both call Decision
Claude 66%
GPT 63%
GPT 63%
Casey O'Neill over Eduarda Moura
Both call Decision
Claude 63%
GPT 66%
GPT 66%
Dooho Choi over Patricio Pitbull
Both call Decision
Claude 60%
GPT 66%
GPT 66%
Charles Jourdain over Marlon Vera
Both call Decision
Claude 62%
GPT 64%
GPT 64%
Iwo Baraniewski over Alonzo Menifield
Both call KO/TKO
Claude 58%
GPT 64%
GPT 64%
JooSang Yoo over Michael Aswell Jr.
Both call Decision
Claude 60%
GPT 61%
GPT 61%
Joshua Van over Alexandre Pantoja
Both call Decision
Claude 57%
GPT 61%
GPT 61%
Edmen Shahbazyan over Brunno Ferreira
Claude 57%
GPT 60%
GPT 60%
Robelis Despaigne over Tai Tuivasa
Both call KO/TKO
Claude 58%
GPT 56%
GPT 56%
Win confidence is the model's probability that its pick wins: 55 to 64 is a shrug, 65 to 74 is confident, 75 and up is the model betting its reputation.
KO/TKO, Submission, Decision is how the model splits the ways the fight ends, out of 100.
Odds are the sportsbook moneyline with the bookmaker margin removed, so the two percentages sum to 100. When a model's confidence beats the market's implied number, that gap is the value.
Elo is an opponent adjusted rating built from every UFC fight since 1994. Click any Elo number on the card for the full explanation, including what the star means.
In the cage now, or up next2 of 12 bouts decided
Jr. Yoo LW 350d out last 5
Michael Aswell Jr. no UFC fights on record
JooSang Yoo last fought 350 days ago
L
vs Daniel Santos · KO/TKO Punch2025-10-04
W
vs Jeka Saragih · KO/TKO Punch2025-06-07
Claude
JooSang Yoo
60%win confidence
KO/TKO 37%
Submission 5%
Decision 58%
Aswell's dataCompleteness block says debut, but his log shows four UFC-era bouts and a DWCS appearance, so again the per-minute numbers are small-sample. Still, the picture across those fights is consistent: he is 1-4 in that stretch with four decision losses (Bolanos, Riley, Oki, Grad), and his sta...
GPT
JooSang Yoo
61%win confidence
KO/TKO 35%
Submission 3%
Decision 62%
Yoo's higher striking accuracy, stronger defense and better strike differential favor him in a predominantly standing matchup. Aswell's greater output provides a credible path to winning rounds, but he also absorbs substantially more strikes. Limited grappling activity supports a striking-led decisi...
Joshua Van -136 (54.277743335399876%)
Alexandre Pantoja +106 (45.722256664600124%)
fanduel line
Van WWWWW 133d out Pantoja LWWWW 287d out last 5
Joshua Van last fought 133 days ago
W
vs Tatsuro Taira · KO/TKO Punches2026-05-09
W
vs Alexandre Pantoja · KO/TKO2025-12-06
W
vs Brandon Royval · U-DEC2025-06-28
W
vs Bruno Silva · KO/TKO Punches2025-06-07
W
vs Rei Tsuruya · U-DEC2025-03-08
Alexandre Pantoja last fought 287 days ago
L
vs Joshua Van · KO/TKO2025-12-06
W
vs Kai Kara-France · SUB Rear Naked Choke2025-06-28
W
vs Kai Asakura · SUB Rear Naked Choke2024-12-07
W
vs Brandon Royval · U-DEC2023-12-16
W
vs Steve Erceg · U-DEC2023-12-09
Claude
Joshua Van
57%win confidence
KO/TKO 33%
Submission 17%
Decision 50%
The first meeting ended in a first-round KO for Van, and everything since has widened the gap: Van followed it by stopping Tatsuro Taira in the fifth round of a title defense, while Pantoja will be 36 years old and returning from a 274-day layoff off the first knockout loss of his UFC run. Elo still...
GPT
Joshua Van
61%win confidence
KO/TKO 29%
Submission 1%
Decision 70%
Van's higher striking output and superior striking differential favor him if exchanges remain standing. His 83% takedown defense supports that path, although Pantoja's higher takedown rate and submission activity create meaningful uncertainty. Van's high absorption rate limits confidence. Method pro...
Arman Tsarukyan -340 (73.00613496932515%)
Mauricio Ruffy +250 (26.99386503067484%)
fanduel line
Tsarukyan WWWWW 301d out Ruffy WLWWW 231d out last 5
Arman Tsarukyan last fought 301 days ago
W
vs Dan Hooker · SUB Arm Triangle2025-11-22
W
vs Charles Oliveira · S-DEC2024-04-13
W
vs Beneil Dariush · KO/TKO2023-12-02
W
vs Joaquim Silva · KO/TKO2023-06-17
W
vs Damir Ismagulov · U-DEC2022-12-17
Mauricio Ruffy last fought 231 days ago
W
vs Rafael Fiziev · KO/TKO Punches2026-01-31
L
vs Benoit Saint Denis · SUB Rear Naked Choke2025-09-06
W
vs King Green · KO/TKO Kick2025-03-08
W
vs James Llontop · 2024-11-16
W
vs Jamie Mullarkey · KO/TKO2023-12-09
Claude
Arman Tsarukyan
70%win confidence
KO/TKO 25%
Submission 32%
Decision 43%
Ruffy is the most dangerous pure striker Tsarukyan has faced since Oliveira, and his knockouts of Fiziev and Chandler in 2026 are legitimate top-15 wins, not padding. But his only UFC loss is the blueprint for this fight: Benoit Saint Denis took him down, took his back and choked him in round two. T...
GPT
Arman Tsarukyan
71%win confidence
KO/TKO 23%
Submission 7%
Decision 70%
Tsarukyan's stronger striking differential (+2.05 versus +0.36) and takedown output offer more routes to winning rounds. Ruffy's 86% takedown defense and superior striking accuracy make him competitive, but his higher absorption favors Tsarukyan over time. Round assumes a three-round bout; method pr...
Patricio Pitbull +200 (31.46551724137931%)
Dooho Choi -265 (68.5344827586207%)
fanduel line
Pitbull Choi WWWLL 651d out last 5
Patricio Pitbull no UFC fights on record
Dooho Choi last fought 651 days ago, long layoff
W
vs Nate Landwehr · KO/TKO Elbows2024-12-07
W
vs Bill Algeo · KO/TKO2024-02-10
W
vs Kyle Nelson · M-DEC2023-02-04
L
vs Charles Jourdain · KO/TKO2019-12-21
L
vs Jeremy Stephens · KO/TKO2018-01-14
Claude
Dooho Choi
60%win confidence
KO/TKO 35%
Submission 10%
Decision 55%
Note on data: the dataCompleteness block flags Pitbull as a UFC debutant, but the recent-form log shows three UFC bouts (Rodriguez, Ige, Pico), so his stats are a real if small sample. Those numbers are the story - 2.77 significant strikes landed per minute against 4.61 absorbed is a -1.84 different...
GPT
Dooho Choi
66%win confidence
KO/TKO 38%
Submission 10%
Decision 52%
Choi's higher striking output and accuracy favor him in sustained exchanges, with a +0.57 strike differential versus Pitbull's -1.84. Pitbull can exploit Choi's 59% takedown defense, but his 33% takedown accuracy makes consistent control uncertain. Limited finish and fight-history data temper confid...
Alonzo Menifield +200 (31.46551724137931%)
Iwo Baraniewski -265 (68.5344827586207%)
fanduel line
Menifield WLWWL 112d out Baraniewski W 287d out last 5
Alonzo Menifield last fought 112 days ago
W
vs Zhang Mingyang · KO/TKO Punch2026-05-30
L
vs Volkan Oezdemir · KO/TKO Punches2025-11-22
W
vs Oumar Sy · U-DEC2025-06-14
W
vs Julius Walker · S-DEC2025-02-22
L
vs Azamat Murzakanov · KO/TKO2024-02-24
Iwo Baraniewski last fought 287 days ago
W
vs Ibo Aslan · KO/TKO Punches2025-12-06
Claude
Iwo Baraniewski
58%win confidence
KO/TKO 74%
Submission 6%
Decision 20%
Genuine tension between the two priors here: the market has Baraniewski at 67%, Elo has Menifield at 55%, but Baraniewski's rating is provisional on one rated bout so the Elo number is mostly Menifield's own 18-fight baseline. I side with the market but not at its price. Baraniewski is 9-0 with four...
GPT
Iwo Baraniewski
64%win confidence
KO/TKO 77%
Submission 4%
Decision 19%
Baraniewski's higher striking output and +2.70 significant-strike differential favor him in exchanges against Menifield's nearly even differential. His 8.65 strikes absorbed per minute gives Menifield a substantial counterstriking opportunity. Missing sample sizes limit confidence in the extreme rat...
Gable Steveson -1800 (89.50276243093923%)
Sean Sharaf +800 (10.497237569060774%)
fanduel line
Steveson Sharaf LL 280d out last 5
Gable Steveson no UFC fights on record
Sean Sharaf last fought 280 days ago
L
vs Steven Asplund · KO/TKO Punches2025-12-13
L
vs Junior Tafa · KO/TKO2024-04-27
Claude
Gable Steveson
65%win confidence
KO/TKO 65%
Submission 15%
Decision 20%
The data pipeline flags Steveson as having no completed UFC fights on record, while the enrichment log shows a KO win over Elisha Ellison at UFC 329 (Jul. 2026). Either way, the UFCStats per-minute numbers (16.29 SLPM, 71% accuracy) come from at most one bout and the 0% TD figures are empty fields, ...
GPT
Gable Steveson
78%win confidence
KO/TKO 83%
Submission 5%
Decision 12%
Steveson's higher striking output and accuracy match favorably against Sharaf's 15 significant strikes absorbed per minute and 42% striking defense, supporting an early stoppage. Sharaf's height and reach advantages offer some resistance. Missing sample sizes and incomplete grappling data limit conf...
Marlon Vera +176 (34.20398009950249%)
Charles Jourdain -230 (65.79601990049751%)
fanduel line
Vera LLLWL 336d out Jourdain WWLLL 154d out last 5
Marlon Vera last fought 336 days ago
L
vs Aiemann Zahabi · S-DEC2025-10-18
L
vs Sean O'Malley · U-DEC2024-03-09
L
vs Deiveson Figueiredo · U-DEC2024-02-24
W
vs Pedro Munhoz · U-DEC2023-08-19
L
vs Cory Sandhagen · S-DEC2023-03-25
Charles Jourdain last fought 154 days ago
W
vs Kyler Phillips · U-DEC2026-04-18
W
vs Davey Grant · SUB Guillotine Choke2025-10-18
L
vs win · 2024-11-02
L
vs Jean Silva · KO/TKO2024-01-27
L
vs Sean Woodson · S-DEC2024-01-20
Claude
Charles Jourdain
62%win confidence
KO/TKO 20%
Submission 15%
Decision 65%
This is the clearest model-vs-market tension on the card. Elo still favors Vera 57-43 because his rating was built against O'Malley, Sandhagen, Figueiredo and Munhoz, but the -37 recent trend tells the real story: four straight decision losses, the last two to Aiemann Zahabi and David Martinez, figh...
GPT
Charles Jourdain
64%win confidence
KO/TKO 21%
Submission 12%
Decision 67%
Jourdain's higher striking output, better defense and positive strike differential favor him in a predominantly standing fight. Vera has a grappling opportunity against Jourdain's 46% takedown defense, but his low takedown rate limits that advantage. Missing recent form and reliable finishing data t...
Tai Tuivasa +400 (18.848167539267017%)
Robelis Despaigne -620 (81.15183246073299%)
fanduel line
Tuivasa LLLLL 231d out Despaigne LWL 875d out last 5
Tai Tuivasa last fought 231 days ago
L
vs Tallison Teixeira · U-DEC2026-01-31
L
vs Marcin Tybura · SUB2024-03-16
L
vs Jairzinho Rozenstruik · S-DEC2024-03-09
L
vs Alexander Volkov · SUB2023-09-09
L
vs Sergei Pavlovich · KO/TKO2022-12-03
Robelis Despaigne last fought 875 days ago, long layoff
L
vs Austen Lane · U-DEC2024-04-27
W
vs Josh Parisian · KO/TKO2024-03-09
L
vs Waldo Cortes-Acosta · U-DEC2023-12-16
Claude
Robelis Despaigne
58%win confidence
KO/TKO 55%
Submission 5%
Decision 40%
The market prices Despaigne at 79% and I disagree by roughly 19 points; my read is closer to 60-40. The factor the market appears to be underweighting is Despaigne's 687-day layoff, which lands squarely beyond the 450-day risk threshold, stacked on top of a documented cardio problem. In his two UFC ...
GPT
Robelis Despaigne
56%win confidence
KO/TKO 62%
Submission 2%
Decision 36%
Despaigne's nine-inch reach advantage and higher striking accuracy favor him against Tuivasa's 42% striking defense and 4.61 significant strikes absorbed per minute. Tuivasa's higher output and supplied win rate make this a narrow lean. Neither fighter records offensive grappling production, suggest...
Edmen Shahbazyan -170 (59.36183022275737%)
Brunno Ferreira +132 (40.638169777242624%)
fanduel line
Shahbazyan WWWWL 350d out Ferreira LWWWW 196d out last 5
Edmen Shahbazyan last fought 350 days ago
W
vs Andre Muniz · KO/TKO Elbows2025-10-04
W
vs Andre Petroski · U-DEC2025-06-14
W
vs Dylan Budka · KO/TKO Punch2025-02-15
W
vs AJ Dobson · KO/TKO2024-03-23
L
vs Gerald Meerschaert · SUB2024-03-16
Brunno Ferreira last fought 196 days ago
L
vs Gregory Rodrigues · KO/TKO Punch2026-03-07
W
vs Marvin Vettori · U-DEC2025-12-06
W
vs Jackson McVey · SUB Armbar2025-07-19
W
vs Armen Petrosyan · SUB Armbar2025-03-08
W
vs Phil Hawes · KO/TKO2024-01-13
Claude
Edmen Shahbazyan
57%win confidence
KO/TKO 52%
Submission 16%
Decision 32%
This is a coin flip dressed up as a moderate favorite. The market has Shahbazyan at 59% but the opponent-adjusted Elo is dead even (1573 vs 1578, 49/51), and Ferreira's rating held despite back-to-back losses because Rodrigues and Aliskerov are top-15 caliber. Shahbazyan's own last loss was a decisi...
GPT
Edmen Shahbazyan
60%win confidence
KO/TKO 40%
Submission 12%
Decision 48%
Shahbazyan's higher striking output and positive strike differential favor him in sustained exchanges. Better takedown accuracy and defense offer additional routes to winning rounds against Ferreira's 50% takedown defense. Ferreira's higher supplied win rate tempers confidence; the missing finish hi...
FINAL: Joanderson Brito by KO/TKO Punches
Giga Chikadze +285 (24.509803921568626%)
Joanderson Brito -400 (75.49019607843138%)
fanduel line
Chikadze LLLLW 0d out Brito WLLWW 0d out last 5
Giga Chikadze last fought 0 days ago
L
vs Joanderson Brito · KO/TKO Punches2026-09-19
L
vs Kevin Vallejos · KO/TKO Spinning Back Fist2025-12-13
L
vs David Onama · U-DEC2025-04-26
L
vs Arnold Allen · U-DEC2024-02-17
W
vs Alex Caceres · U-DEC2023-08-26
Joanderson Brito last fought 0 days ago
W
vs Giga Chikadze · KO/TKO Punches2026-09-19
L
vs Pat Sabatini · U-DEC2025-04-05
L
vs William Gomis · S-DEC2024-04-06
W
vs Jack Shore · KO/TKO2023-12-09
W
vs Jonathan Pearce · SUB2023-11-18
Claude HIT
Joanderson Brito
66%win confidence
KO/TKO 28%
Submission 30%
Decision 42%
The Elo model says this is a pick'em (Chikadze 51%) and the market says Brito is a -340 favorite. I side with the market and it isn't close - Elo is carrying Chikadze's 2020-21 kick-boxing peak (1621) and hasn't fully priced the -43 trend of a 38-year-old on a three-fight skid who was knocked out by...
GPT HIT
Joanderson Brito
63%win confidence
KO/TKO 22%
Submission 34%
Decision 44%
Brito's stronger takedown production and 67% takedown accuracy offer a route to winning rounds against Chikadze's 65% takedown defense. Chikadze has higher striking volume, better striking defense and a slight reach advantage, making prolonged standing exchanges a risk for Brito. Brito's grappling a...
FINAL: Casey O'Neill by SUB Armbar
Casey O'Neill -196 (62.52785092161231%)
Eduarda Moura +152 (37.47214907838768%)
fanduel line
O'Neill WWLLW 0d out Moura LLWLL 0d out last 5
Casey O'Neill last fought 0 days ago
W
vs Eduarda Moura · SUB Armbar2026-09-19
W
vs Luana Santos · U-DEC2024-03-09
L
vs Ariane da Silva · SUB2023-12-16
L
vs Jennifer Maia · U-DEC2023-03-18
W
vs Roxanne Modafferi · S-DEC2022-02-12
Eduarda Moura last fought 0 days ago
L
vs Casey O'Neill · SUB Armbar2026-09-19
L
vs Wang Cong · U-DEC2026-02-07
W
vs Lauren Murphy · U-DEC2025-07-12
L
vs Veronica Hardy · 2024-11-16
L
vs Denise Gomes · S-DEC2024-01-06
Claude HIT
Casey O'Neill
63%win confidence
KO/TKO 22%
Submission 13%
Decision 65%
Market (62%) and Elo (59%) agree here and my read lands in the same band. O'Neill's defining trait is pace: 7.89 significant strikes per minute at 52% accuracy is elite for the division and roughly three times Moura's 2.57 SLPM at 37%. Moura's entire game is the takedown (3.58 per 15) but she only c...
GPT HIT
Casey O'Neill
66%win confidence
KO/TKO 18%
Submission 10%
Decision 72%
O'Neill's higher striking output and accuracy favor her in standing exchanges: 7.89 significant strikes landed per minute at 52% accuracy versus Moura's 2.57 at 37%. Moura's higher takedown rate offers a credible path to victory, but O'Neill's 70% takedown defense supports a narrow decision pick. Li...
Ryan Gandra -500 (78.57142857142858%)
Ozzy Diaz +340 (21.42857142857143%)
fanduel line
Gandra Diaz LWL 133d out last 5
Ryan Gandra no UFC fights on record
Ozzy Diaz last fought 133 days ago
L
vs Ateba Gautier · KO/TKO Punch2026-05-09
W
vs Djorden Santos · U-DEC2025-03-08
L
vs Zhang Mingyang · 2024-11-23
Claude
Ryan Gandra
65%win confidence
KO/TKO 68%
Submission 4%
Decision 28%
The dataCompleteness block flags Gandra as a debutant, yet his fight log shows two UFC stoppage wins (Reese, Medina) on top of a DWCS KO, so the underlying stats are a tiny sample and I treat them as directional only. What is not noise is the pattern: three straight knockouts, all by punches, and a ...
GPT
Ryan Gandra
73%win confidence
KO/TKO 62%
Submission 3%
Decision 35%
Gandra's higher striking output and stronger defense favor him against Diaz, who absorbs more significant strikes than he lands. Sustained offense makes a second-round stoppage plausible, though unknown sample sizes and missing finishing history limit confidence. Diaz's reach advantage offers a coun...