The record
Every pick. Graded.
65 cards, 1454 picks since November 16, 2024. Nothing removed.
60.5%
Claude, 425 of 703
57.4%
GPT, 431 of 751
61.5%
Both agree, 569 fights
72.5%
Double locks, 51 fights
Accuracy over time
ClaudeGPTMarket favorite
Dashed: sportsbook favorite.
Calibration
| Confidence | Claude | GPT |
|---|---|---|
| Says 0-59% | 57.8% 90 | 64.7% 51 |
| Says 60-64% | 52.3% 130 | 49.6% 115 |
| Says 65-69% | 61.9% 226 | 55.3% 264 |
| Says 70-74% | 60.4% 149 | 55.4% 184 |
| Says 75-79% | 68.2% 88 | 68.2% 110 |
| Says 80-100% | 75.0% 20 | 66.7% 27 |
| When they split | 55.5% 128 | 44.5% 128 |
Says 70, hits 60: overconfident.
By card slot
| Model | Main card | Prelims | Locks (75%+) | Brier |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Claude | 64.7% 154/238 | 58.3% 271/465 | 69.4% 75/108 | 0.242 |
| GPT | 57.8% 149/258 | 57.2% 282/493 | 67.9% 93/137 | 0.257 |
Brier: lower is better. Coin flip 0.250.
Against the market
| Picks | Bets | Hit | Avg price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Market favorite reference | 136 | 66.2% | 66% | -3.2% |
| Claude, favorites | 102 | 67.6% | 67% | -2.5% |
| Claude, underdogs | 19 | 36.8% | 39% | -10.6% |
| GPT, favorites | 95 | 65.3% | 68% | -6.5% |
| GPT, underdogs | 19 | 36.8% | 39% | -10.0% |
Hypothetical, at de-vigged sportsbook prices. Not Kalshi returns. Claude Brier 0.227 vs market 0.217, blend weight 0.3; GPT Brier 0.239 vs market 0.225, blend weight 0.2.
Hypothetical $1,000 bankroll
Claude favoritesGPT favoritesAll Claude picksMarket favorite
Sportsbook prices, assumed fees. No real fills.
| Top in hindsight | Bets | Hit | ROI | $1,000 became |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both models agree · Only when there is a calibrated edge · Aggressive | 39 | 62% | +9.5% | $1,279 |
| Double locks (both 75%+) · Only when the pick is the favorite · Aggressive | 14 | 86% | +9.0% | $1,093 |
| Both models agree · Only when there is a calibrated edge · Medium | 28 | 61% | +8.0% | $1,090 |
| Both models agree · Only when the pick is the favorite · Medium | 57 | 68% | +2.4% | $1,028 |
| All Claude picks · Every pick · Medium | 72 | 61% | +1.7% | $1,024 |
| Market favorite reference | 84 | 68% | -0.9% | $985 |
Ranked in hindsight. More on the desk.
Best and worst nights
Best
10/10ClaudeUFC Fight Night: Burns vs. MoralesMay 17, 2025 · 100%
12/14ClaudeUFC 332: Silva vs. WangOctober 3, 2026 · 86%
10/12GPTUFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. NolanOctober 31, 2026 · 83%
10/12ClaudeUFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. NolanOctober 31, 2026 · 83%
10/12ClaudeUFC Fight Night: Bonfim vs. BrownNovember 8, 2025 · 83%
Worst
2/11GPTUFC Fight Night: Oliveira vs. GamrotOctober 11, 2025 · 18%
3/13GPTUFC Fight Night: Sterling vs. ZalalApril 25, 2026 · 23%
3/11GPTUFC Fight Night: Burns vs. MalottApril 18, 2026 · 27%
3/10GPTUFC 321: Aspinall vs. GaneOctober 25, 2025 · 30%
4/12GPTUFC 311: Makhachev vs. Tsarukyan 2January 18, 2025 · 33%
Cards with 6+ fights.
Every card
UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. Nolan
October 31, 2026
Claude