June 14, 2025
UFC Fight Night: Usman vs. Buckley
Card complete. GPT 6/10 (60%) · Claude 2/4 (50%)
All results
Both models agree 3 of 13 fights
Andre Petroski over Edmen Shahbazyan
Both call Submission
Claude 70%
GPT 75%
GPT 75%
Raoni Barcelos over Cody Garbrandt
Both call Decision
Claude 65%
GPT 65%
GPT 65%
Rose Namajunas over Miranda Maverick
Both call Decision
Claude 65%
GPT 60%
GPT 60%
Double locks: both at 75% or higher 0 fights
Nothing clears the 75% bar from both models. The genie is hedging tonight.
Build your own list 3 match
Andre Petroski over Edmen Shahbazyan
Both call Submission
Claude 70%
GPT 75%
GPT 75%
Raoni Barcelos over Cody Garbrandt
Both call Decision
Claude 65%
GPT 65%
GPT 65%
Rose Namajunas over Miranda Maverick
Both call Decision
Claude 65%
GPT 60%
GPT 60%
Win confidence is the model's probability that its pick wins: 55 to 64 is a shrug, 65 to 74 is confident, 75 and up is the model betting its reputation.
KO/TKO, Submission, Decision is how the model splits the ways the fight ends, out of 100.
Odds are the sportsbook moneyline with the bookmaker margin removed, so the two percentages sum to 100. When a model's confidence beats the market's implied number, that gap is the value.
Elo is an opponent adjusted rating built from every UFC fight since 1994. Click any Elo number on the card for the full explanation, including what the star means.
FINAL: Kamaru Usman by U-DEC
Usman LLLWW 602d out Buckley WWWWW 181d out last 5
Kamaru Usman last fought 602 days ago, long layoff
L
vs Khamzat Chimaev · M-DEC2023-10-21
L
vs Leon Edwards · M-DEC2023-03-18
L
vs Leon Edwards · KO/TKO2022-08-20
W
vs Colby Covington · U-DEC2021-11-06
W
vs Jorge Masvidal · KO/TKO2021-04-24
Joaquin Buckley last fought 181 days ago
W
vs Colby Covington · KO/TKO2024-12-14
W
vs Stephen Thompson · KO/TKO2024-04-13
W
vs Vicente Luque · KO/TKO2024-03-30
W
vs Nursulton Ruziboev · U-DEC2023-12-16
W
vs Alex Morono · U-DEC2023-10-07
Claude MISS
Joaquin Buckley
60%win confidence
KO/TKO 60%
Submission 5%
Decision 35%
Buckley enters this matchup with tremendous momentum, riding a five-fight win streak with three recent KO/TKO finishes. Usman, while historically dominant, has lost three consecutive fights and showed diminishing durability. Buckley's southpaw stance creates problematic angles for Usman's switch sta...
GPT HIT
Kamaru Usman
80%win confidence
KO/TKO 30%
Submission 10%
Decision 60%
Usman has a higher strike accuracy, takedown accuracy, and takedown defense. His defensive efficiency is also significantly better than Buckley's. Despite similar striking styles, Usman's stats suggest a more effective overall performance.
FINAL: Rose Namajunas by U-DEC
Namajunas WWLLW 448d out Maverick WWWWL 181d out last 5
Rose Namajunas last fought 448 days ago
W
vs Amanda Ribas · U-DEC2024-03-23
W
vs Tracy Cortez · U-DEC2024-02-03
L
vs Manon Fiorot · U-DEC2023-09-02
L
vs Carla Esparza · S-DEC2022-05-07
W
vs Zhang Weili · S-DEC2021-11-06
Miranda Maverick last fought 181 days ago
W
vs Jamey-Lyn Horth · U-DEC2024-12-14
W
vs Andrea Lee · U-DEC2024-02-17
W
vs Dione Barbosa · U-DEC2024-02-10
W
vs Priscila Cachoeira · SUB2023-07-29
L
vs Jasmine Jasudavicius · U-DEC2023-06-10
Claude HIT
Rose Namajunas
65%win confidence
KO/TKO 20%
Submission 15%
Decision 65%
Namajunas brings superior technical striking and defensive movement to this matchup, with a 64% striking defense compared to Maverick's 59%. While both fighters have similar striking volume (3.7 vs 3.59 SLPM), Namajunas's orthodox stance creates favorable angles against Maverick's southpaw approach....
GPT HIT
Rose Namajunas
60%win confidence
KO/TKO 20%
Submission 15%
Decision 65%
Namajunas has a higher strike accuracy and defense, and her grappling statistics are also superior. Despite Maverick's slightly better win rate, Namajunas' overall statistics suggest she may have the edge in this match.
FINAL: Edmen Shahbazyan by U-DEC
Shahbazyan WWLLW 118d out Petroski WLWWL 118d out last 5
Edmen Shahbazyan last fought 118 days ago
W
vs Dylan Budka · KO/TKO Punch2025-02-15
W
vs AJ Dobson · KO/TKO2024-03-23
L
vs Gerald Meerschaert · SUB2024-03-16
L
vs Anthony Hernandez · KO/TKO2023-05-20
W
vs Dalcha Lungiambula · KO/TKO2022-12-10
Andre Petroski last fought 118 days ago
W
vs Rodolfo Vieira · U-DEC2025-02-15
L
vs Jacob Malkoun · KO/TKO2024-03-30
W
vs Dylan Budka · U-DEC2024-03-23
W
vs Josh Fremd · U-DEC2024-02-03
L
vs Michel Pereira · KO/TKO2023-10-14
Claude MISS
Andre Petroski
70%win confidence
KO/TKO 20%
Submission 55%
Decision 25%
Petroski holds a decisive grappling advantage with 3.91 takedowns per fight (vs Shahbazyan's 2.01) and superior 80% TDD (vs Shahbazyan's 65%). Critically, Petroski averages 1.7 submissions per fight, targeting Shahbazyan's documented submission vulnerability (2 recent submission losses). While Shahb...
GPT MISS
Andre Petroski
75%win confidence
KO/TKO 20%
Submission 60%
Decision 20%
Andre Petroski's superior takedown accuracy and defense, coupled with his higher submission average suggest that he has a better grappling game than Edmen Shahbazyan. Additionally, performance insights show that Petroski has performed better against common opponents.
FINAL: Raoni Barcelos by U-DEC
Garbrandt LWWLL 427d out Barcelos WWLLW 146d out last 5
Cody Garbrandt last fought 427 days ago
L
vs Deiveson Figueiredo · SUB2024-04-13
W
vs Brian Kelleher · KO/TKO2023-12-16
W
vs Trevin Jones · U-DEC2023-03-04
L
vs Kai Kara-France · KO/TKO2021-12-11
L
vs Rob Font · U-DEC2021-05-22
Raoni Barcelos last fought 146 days ago
W
vs Payton Talbott · U-DEC2025-01-18
W
vs Cristian Quinonez · SUB2024-02-24
L
vs Kyler Phillips · U-DEC2023-08-05
L
vs Umar Nurmagomedov · KO/TKO2023-01-14
W
vs Trevin Jones · U-DEC2022-10-01
Claude HIT
Raoni Barcelos
65%win confidence
KO/TKO 25%
Submission 20%
Decision 55%
Barcelos presents a significant stylistic challenge for Garbrandt due to his superior volume striking (5.22 vs 2.98 SLPM) and more diverse offensive toolkit. While Garbrandt possesses the one-shot KO power that's always dangerous, his defensive vulnerabilities (absorbing 3.76 strikes per minute) mak...
GPT HIT
Raoni Barcelos
65%win confidence
KO/TKO 20%
Submission 15%
Decision 65%
Based on the statistics, Barcelos has a higher strike volume and accuracy, which might give him an edge in the stand-up exchanges. Although Garbrandt has a higher takedown defense, Barcelos has a decent takedown accuracy and more takedowns per fight, which may allow him to control the fight on the g...
Abdul-Malik WL 111d out Brundage WLLWW 104d out last 5
Mansur Abdul-Malik last fought 111 days ago
W
vs Nick Klein · KO/TKO Punches2025-02-22
L
vs win · 2024-11-09
Cody Brundage last fought 104 days ago
W
vs Julian Marquez · KO/TKO Punches2025-03-01
L
vs Bo Nickal · SUB2024-04-13
L
vs Abdul Razak Alhassan · CNC2024-02-03
W
vs Zach Reese · KO/TKO2023-12-02
W
vs Jacob Malkoun · DQ2023-09-23
GPT
Mansur Abdul-Malik
60%win confidence
KO/TKO 45%
Submission 15%
Decision 40%
Mansur Abdul-Malik has a superior striking game, with a significantly higher Significant Strikes Landed Per Minute (SLPM) and a better striking defense. The striking differential also favors Abdul-Malik.
FINAL: Alonzo Menifield by U-DEC
Menifield WLWLW 111d out Sy WW 434d out last 5
Alonzo Menifield last fought 111 days ago
W
vs Julius Walker · S-DEC2025-02-22
L
vs Azamat Murzakanov · KO/TKO2024-02-24
W
vs Dustin Jacoby · U-DEC2023-12-16
L
vs Carlos Ulberg · KO/TKO2023-12-16
W
vs Jimmy Crute · SUB2023-07-08
Oumar Sy last fought 434 days ago
W
vs Da Woon Jung · U-DEC2024-04-06
W
vs Tuco Tokkos · SUB2023-12-23
GPT MISS
Oumar Sy
75%win confidence
KO/TKO 25%
Submission 15%
Decision 60%
Oumar Sy has superior striking volume and accuracy, significantly better strike defense, and a superior takedown average. Menifield's takedown defense is decent but may not hold up against Sy's takedown volume. Reach advantage also favors Sy.
Craig LLLWL 209d out Bellato W 559d out last 5
Paul Craig last fought 209 days ago
L
vs Bo Nickal · 2024-11-16
L
vs Caio Borralho · KO/TKO2023-12-09
L
vs Brendan Allen · SUB2023-11-18
W
vs Andre Muniz · KO/TKO2023-07-22
L
vs Johnny Walker · KO/TKO2023-01-21
Rodolfo Bellato last fought 559 days ago, long layoff
W
vs Ihor Potieria · KO/TKO2023-12-02
GPT
Rodolfo Bellato
70%win confidence
KO/TKO 60%
Submission 10%
Decision 30%
Bellato's superior striking volume and accuracy could overwhelm Craig. While Craig has a decent submission game, Bellato's 100% takedown defense would make it difficult for Craig to bring the fight to the ground.
FINAL: Michael Chiesa by U-DEC
Chiesa WWLLL 188d out McGee WLLLW 427d out last 5
Michael Chiesa last fought 188 days ago
W
vs Max Griffin · SUB Rear Naked Choke2024-12-07
W
vs Tony Ferguson · SUB2024-02-24
L
vs Kevin Holland · SUB2023-07-29
L
vs Sean Brady · U-DEC2021-11-20
L
vs Vicente Luque · SUB2021-08-07
Court McGee last fought 427 days ago
W
vs Tim Means · SUB2024-04-13
L
vs Alex Morono · U-DEC2024-04-06
L
vs Matt Brown · KO/TKO2023-05-13
L
vs Jeremiah Wells · KO/TKO2022-06-18
W
vs Ramiz Brahimaj · U-DEC2022-01-15
GPT HIT
Michael Chiesa
65%win confidence
KO/TKO 15%
Submission 50%
Decision 35%
Chiesa's superior grappling and submission skills give him the edge. Also, his performance against common opponents has been better than McGee's.
FINAL: Malcolm Wellmaker by KO/TKO Punch
Wellmaker W 49d out Moutinho LL 1189d out last 5
Malcolm Wellmaker last fought 49 days ago
W
vs Cameron Saaiman · KO/TKO Punch2025-04-26
Kris Moutinho last fought 1189 days ago, long layoff
L
vs Guido Cannetti · KO/TKO2022-03-12
L
vs Sean O'Malley · KO/TKO2021-07-10
GPT HIT
Malcolm Wellmaker
75%win confidence
KO/TKO 60%
Submission 0%
Decision 40%
Malcolm Wellmaker's significant advantage in striking metrics and defensive efficiency indicates a higher likelihood of him controlling the stand-up game and potentially scoring a knockout.
FINAL: Jose Ochoa by KO/TKO Punch
Durden LWLLW 188d out Ochoa L 202d out last 5
Cody Durden last fought 188 days ago
L
vs Joshua Van · U-DEC2024-12-07
W
vs Matt Schnell · SUB2024-03-23
L
vs Bruno Silva · KO/TKO2024-02-10
L
vs Tagir Ulanbekov · SUB2023-12-16
W
vs Jake Hadley · U-DEC2023-08-05
Jose Ochoa last fought 202 days ago
L
vs Lone'er Kavanagh · 2024-11-23
GPT MISS
Cody Durden
80%win confidence
KO/TKO 20%
Submission 30%
Decision 50%
Based on available data, Cody Durden has a significantly higher statistical performance in striking and grappling. Jose Ochoa's data is largely unavailable, indicating lack of experience or record in UFC fights. Cody also has a high takedown average and accuracy, which could play a crucial role in t...
Simon WLLLW 111d out Jourdain LLLWW 224d out last 5
Ricky Simon last fought 111 days ago
W
vs Javid Basharat · KO/TKO Punch2025-02-22
L
vs Vinicius Oliveira · U-DEC2024-01-27
L
vs Mario Bautista · U-DEC2024-01-13
L
vs Song Yadong · KO/TKO2023-04-29
W
vs Jack Shore · SUB2022-07-16
Charles Jourdain last fought 224 days ago
L
vs win · 2024-11-02
L
vs Jean Silva · KO/TKO2024-01-27
L
vs Sean Woodson · S-DEC2024-01-20
W
vs Ricardo Ramos · SUB2023-09-23
W
vs Kron Gracie · U-DEC2023-05-06
GPT
Ricky Simon
65%win confidence
KO/TKO 20%
Submission 15%
Decision 65%
Ricky Simon has a significant advantage in takedowns and takedown defense, which could negate Jourdain's striking volume. Although Jourdain has a higher SLPM, his takedown defense is significantly lower than Simon's takedown average. This could allow Simon to control the fight and potentially win by...
FINAL: Phil Rowe by KO/TKO Punches
Rowe LLWWW 529d out Loosa LLWWL 455d out last 5
Phil Rowe last fought 529 days ago, long layoff
L
vs Jake Matthews · U-DEC2024-01-01
L
vs Neil Magny · S-DEC2023-06-24
W
vs Niko Price · KO/TKO2022-12-03
W
vs Jason Witt · KO/TKO2022-02-05
W
vs Orion Cosce · KO/TKO2021-07-31
Ange Loosa last fought 455 days ago, long layoff
L
vs Bryan Battle · CNC2024-03-16
L
vs Gabriel Bonfim · U-DEC2024-02-03
W
vs Rhys McKee · U-DEC2023-09-02
W
vs AJ Fletcher · U-DEC2022-08-20
L
vs Mounir Lazzez · U-DEC2022-04-16
GPT MISS
Ange Loosa
65%win confidence
KO/TKO 20%
Submission 10%
Decision 70%
Ange Loosa has a higher significant strikes per minute rate and better takedown defense which may prove advantageous in a long fight.
FINAL: Jamey-Lyn Horth by U-DEC
Horth LLLW 181d out Demopoulos LLWWL 70d out last 5
Jamey-Lyn Horth last fought 181 days ago
L
vs Miranda Maverick · U-DEC2024-12-14
L
vs win · 2024-11-02
L
vs Veronica Hardy · S-DEC2023-12-02
W
vs Hailey Cowan · U-DEC2023-04-29
Vanessa Demopoulos last fought 70 days ago
L
vs Talita Alencar · U-DEC2025-04-05
L
vs Jaqueline Amorim · SUB2024-03-23
W
vs Emily Ducote · S-DEC2023-12-23
W
vs Kanako Murata · U-DEC2023-10-07
L
vs Karolina Kowalkiewicz · U-DEC2023-05-20
GPT HIT
Jamey-Lyn Horth
65%win confidence
KO/TKO 20%
Submission 10%
Decision 70%
Jamey-Lyn Horth has superior striking accuracy and defense, as well as a higher takedown defense. Despite Vanessa's higher striking volume, her lower accuracy and defense may not be enough to secure the win.