September 27, 2025
UFC Fight Night: Ulberg vs. Reyes
Card complete. GPT 6/12 (50%) · Claude 5/12 (42%)
All results
Both models agree 12 of 15 fights
Luana Carolina over Michelle Montague
Both call Decision
Claude 82%
GPT 75%
GPT 75%
Justin Tafa over Louie Sutherland
Both call KO/TKO
Claude 78%
GPT 78%
GPT 78%
Jack Jenkins over Ramon Taveras
Both call Decision
Claude 76%
GPT 72%
GPT 72%
Andre Petroski over Cam Rowston
Claude 72%
GPT 76%
GPT 76%
Oban Elliott over Jonathan Micallef
Both call Decision
Claude 68%
GPT 78%
GPT 78%
Carlos Ulberg over Dominick Reyes
Both call KO/TKO
Claude 72%
GPT 73%
GPT 73%
Ibo Aslan over Junior Tafa
Both call KO/TKO
Claude 68%
GPT 77%
GPT 77%
Jimmy Crute over Ivan Erslan
Both call Submission
Claude 72%
GPT 70%
GPT 70%
Loma Lookboonmee over Alexia Thainara
Both call Decision
Claude 72%
GPT 68%
GPT 68%
Josias Musasa over Colby Thicknesse
Claude 65%
GPT 74%
GPT 74%
Jamie Mullarkey over Rolando Bedoya
Both call Decision
Claude 68%
GPT 67%
GPT 67%
Rodolfo Bellato over Navajo Stirling
Claude 68%
GPT 62%
GPT 62%
Double locks: both at 75% or higher 2 fights
Luana Carolina over Michelle Montague
Both call Decision
Claude 82%
GPT 75%
GPT 75%
Justin Tafa over Louie Sutherland
Both call KO/TKO
Claude 78%
GPT 78%
GPT 78%
Build your own list 12 match
Luana Carolina over Michelle Montague
Both call Decision
Claude 82%
GPT 75%
GPT 75%
Justin Tafa over Louie Sutherland
Both call KO/TKO
Claude 78%
GPT 78%
GPT 78%
Jack Jenkins over Ramon Taveras
Both call Decision
Claude 76%
GPT 72%
GPT 72%
Andre Petroski over Cam Rowston
Claude 72%
GPT 76%
GPT 76%
Oban Elliott over Jonathan Micallef
Both call Decision
Claude 68%
GPT 78%
GPT 78%
Carlos Ulberg over Dominick Reyes
Both call KO/TKO
Claude 72%
GPT 73%
GPT 73%
Ibo Aslan over Junior Tafa
Both call KO/TKO
Claude 68%
GPT 77%
GPT 77%
Jimmy Crute over Ivan Erslan
Both call Submission
Claude 72%
GPT 70%
GPT 70%
Loma Lookboonmee over Alexia Thainara
Both call Decision
Claude 72%
GPT 68%
GPT 68%
Josias Musasa over Colby Thicknesse
Claude 65%
GPT 74%
GPT 74%
Jamie Mullarkey over Rolando Bedoya
Both call Decision
Claude 68%
GPT 67%
GPT 67%
Rodolfo Bellato over Navajo Stirling
Claude 68%
GPT 62%
GPT 62%
Win confidence is the model's probability that its pick wins: 55 to 64 is a shrug, 65 to 74 is confident, 75 and up is the model betting its reputation.
KO/TKO, Submission, Decision is how the model splits the ways the fight ends, out of 100.
Odds are the sportsbook moneyline with the bookmaker margin removed, so the two percentages sum to 100. When a model's confidence beats the market's implied number, that gap is the value.
Elo is an opponent adjusted rating built from every UFC fight since 1994. Click any Elo number on the card for the full explanation, including what the star means.
FINAL: Carlos Ulberg by KO/TKO Punches
Ulberg WLWWW 189d out Reyes WWWLL 168d out last 5
Carlos Ulberg last fought 189 days ago
W
vs Jan Blachowicz · U-DEC2025-03-22
L
vs Volkan Oezdemir · 2024-11-23
W
vs Alonzo Menifield · KO/TKO2023-12-16
W
vs Da Woon Jung · SUB2023-09-09
W
vs Ihor Potieria · KO/TKO2023-05-13
Dominick Reyes last fought 168 days ago
W
vs Nikita Krylov · KO/TKO Punch2025-04-12
W
vs Anthony Smith · KO/TKO Punches2024-12-07
W
vs Dustin Jacoby · KO/TKO2024-01-06
L
vs Ryan Spann · KO/TKO2022-11-12
L
vs Jiri Prochazka · KO/TKO2021-05-01
Claude HIT
Carlos Ulberg
72%win confidence
KO/TKO 65%
Submission 5%
Decision 30%
Ulberg's superior striking metrics (59% accuracy vs 50%, 7.41 SLPM vs 4.87) combined with Reyes' recent vulnerability to knockouts (3 KO/TKO losses in last 5) create a clear path to victory. Ulberg's 52% striking defense is better than Reyes' 48%, and his +3.81 striking differential dwarfs Reyes' +1...
GPT HIT
Carlos Ulberg
73%win confidence
KO/TKO 68%
Submission 4%
Decision 28%
Ulberg's high striking volume, accuracy, and positive strike differential suggest a sustained offensive advantage. Reyes has shown defensive vulnerabilities (48% striking defense) and has been knocked out in recent fights. While Reyes has faced higher-level opposition, his recent skid and Ulberg's s...
Tafa LWLLW 77d out Aslan LW 216d out last 5
Junior Tafa last fought 77 days ago
L
vs Tuco Tokkos · SUB Arm Triangle2025-07-12
W
vs Sean Sharaf · KO/TKO2024-04-27
L
vs Valter Walker · SUB2024-03-09
L
vs Marcos Rogerio de Lima · KO/TKO2024-02-17
W
vs Parker Porter · KO/TKO2023-08-26
Ibo Aslan last fought 216 days ago
L
vs Ion Cutelaba · SUB Arm Triangle2025-02-22
W
vs Anton Turkalj · KO/TKO2024-03-30
Claude
Ibo Aslan
68%win confidence
KO/TKO 70%
Submission 10%
Decision 20%
Aslan's striking volume (8.34 SLPM) and defense (64%) significantly outclass Tafa's (3.36 SLPM, 51% defense). Tafa is dropping from heavyweight to light heavyweight for the first time, which could impact his durability. Aslan's +4.0 striking differential compared to Tafa's +0.52 shows a massive gap ...
GPT
Ibo Aslan
77%win confidence
KO/TKO 70%
Submission 2%
Decision 28%
Ibo Aslan possesses a significantly higher striking volume (8.34 SLpM vs 3.36), superior striking defense (64% vs 51%), and better striking differential (+4 vs +0.52). Both fighters lack grappling output, making this a pure striking matchup. Aslan's pace, power, and defensive stats give him a clear ...
FINAL: Jack Jenkins by U-DEC
Jenkins LWLWW 230d out Taveras LW 286d out last 5
Jack Jenkins last fought 230 days ago
L
vs Gabriel Santos · SUB Rear Naked Choke2025-02-08
W
vs Herbert Burns · KO/TKO2024-03-09
L
vs Chepe Mariscal · KO/TKO2023-09-09
W
vs Jamall Emmers · S-DEC2023-06-24
W
vs Don Shainis · U-DEC2023-02-11
Ramon Taveras last fought 286 days ago
L
vs Davey Grant · U-DEC2024-12-14
W
vs Serhiy Sidey · S-DEC2024-01-20
Claude HIT
Jack Jenkins
76%win confidence
KO/TKO 30%
Submission 15%
Decision 55%
Jenkins' well-rounded game (2.12 takedowns per fight, 69% accuracy) and superior striking accuracy (60% vs 45%) give him multiple paths to victory. Taveras is moving up from bantamweight and has only 1 UFC fight. Jenkins' 80% win rate and 4-1 recent record show consistency. His wrestling threat will...
GPT HIT
Jack Jenkins
72%win confidence
KO/TKO 18%
Submission 5%
Decision 77%
Jenkins displays superior striking accuracy, a significant positive strike differential, and a proven ability to mix in takedowns with high efficiency. Taveras is defensively sound on the feet but absorbs more strikes than he lands and has not demonstrated offensive grappling. Jenkins' well-roundedn...
FINAL: Jimmy Crute by SUB Rear Naked Choke
Crute WLWLL 70d out Erslan LL 140d out last 5
Jimmy Crute last fought 70 days ago
W
vs Marcin Prachnio · SUB Armbar2025-07-19
L
vs Alonzo Menifield · SUB2023-07-08
W
vs Alonzo Menifield · M-DEC2023-02-11
L
vs Jamahal Hill · KO/TKO2021-12-04
L
vs Anthony Smith · KO/TKO2021-04-24
Ivan Erslan last fought 140 days ago
L
vs Navajo Stirling · U-DEC2025-05-10
L
vs Ion Cutelaba · S-DEC2024-04-06
Claude HIT
Jimmy Crute
72%win confidence
KO/TKO 22%
Submission 48%
Decision 30%
Crute's aggressive grappling approach and 2.0 submissions per fight average will overwhelm Erslan, who has shown vulnerability on the ground with only 75% takedown defense. Crute's 4.84 takedowns per fight and superior grappling pedigree should dominate Erslan, who averages only 1 takedown per fight...
GPT HIT
Jimmy Crute
70%win confidence
KO/TKO 15%
Submission 45%
Decision 40%
Crute's wrestling-heavy approach (4.84 takedowns per fight, 57% accuracy) and high submission average (2 per fight) create a significant stylistic advantage against Erslan, whose takedown defense (75%) is solid but largely untested at the UFC level. Crute's superior grappling volume and finishing in...
FINAL: Neil Magny by SUB D'Arce Choke
Matthews WWWLW 77d out Magny LWLWL 560d out last 5
Jake Matthews last fought 77 days ago
W
vs Chidi Njokuani · SUB Rear Naked Choke2025-07-12
W
vs Francisco Prado · U-DEC2025-02-08
W
vs Phil Rowe · U-DEC2024-01-01
L
vs Michael Morales · U-DEC2023-11-18
W
vs Darrius Flowers · SUB2023-07-29
Neil Magny last fought 560 days ago, long layoff
L
vs Michael Morales · KO/TKO2024-03-16
W
vs Mike Malott · KO/TKO2024-01-20
L
vs Ian Machado Garry · U-DEC2023-08-19
W
vs Phil Rowe · S-DEC2023-06-24
L
vs Gilbert Burns · SUB2023-01-21
Claude MISS
Jake Matthews
62%win confidence
KO/TKO 15%
Submission 25%
Decision 60%
Matthews' superior defensive metrics (61% vs 51% striking defense) and recent form trajectory give him the edge. While Magny has performed better against common opponents historically, Matthews has shown improvement in his last three fights. The Australian crowd advantage and Matthews' ability to mi...
GPT HIT
Neil Magny
68%win confidence
KO/TKO 10%
Submission 12%
Decision 78%
Magny's superior reach, higher takedown activity, and proven record against common opponents give him a technical edge in a likely competitive but controlled fight. Matthews is defensively sound but struggles against rangy, high-volume fighters with clinch acumen, which matches Magny's profile.
Tafa LLWLW 230d out Sutherland last 5
Justin Tafa last fought 230 days ago
L
vs Tallison Teixeira · KO/TKO Elbow2025-02-08
L
vs Karl Williams · U-DEC2024-03-23
W
vs Austen Lane · KO/TKO2023-09-09
L
vs Austen Lane · CNC2023-06-24
W
vs Parker Porter · KO/TKO2023-02-11
Louie Sutherland no UFC fights on record
Claude
Justin Tafa
78%win confidence
KO/TKO 75%
Submission 5%
Decision 20%
Tafa faces a UFC debutant with no recorded statistics. Tafa's established power striking (3 KO wins in last 5) and experience advantage make this a significant mismatch. Sutherland's lack of UFC data suggests limited high-level experience. Tafa's southpaw stance and 74-inch reach will create immedia...
GPT
Justin Tafa
78%win confidence
KO/TKO 75%
Submission 2%
Decision 23%
Justin Tafa has proven UFC experience, a high striking accuracy (54%), and significant knockout power. Louie Sutherland makes his UFC debut with no statistical data available on his performance at this level, indicating a large gap in proven ability against elite competition. Tafa's defensive vulner...
FINAL: Navajo Stirling by U-DEC
Stirling WW 140d out Bellato W 664d out last 5
Navajo Stirling last fought 140 days ago
W
vs Ivan Erslan · U-DEC2025-05-10
W
vs Tuco Tokkos · U-DEC2024-12-14
Rodolfo Bellato last fought 664 days ago, long layoff
W
vs Ihor Potieria · KO/TKO2023-12-02
Claude MISS
Rodolfo Bellato
68%win confidence
KO/TKO 55%
Submission 10%
Decision 35%
Bellato's superior striking accuracy (61% vs 56%) and proven finishing ability give him the edge. His 100% takedown defense neutralizes any wrestling threat, while his higher output (6.47 SLPM vs 5.82) and recent KO victory show he's in prime form. Stirling's limited UFC experience and lack of recor...
GPT MISS
Rodolfo Bellato
62%win confidence
KO/TKO 28%
Submission 12%
Decision 60%
Bellato's higher striking output and accuracy, combined with his ability to mix in takedowns and 100% takedown defense, give him a slight edge. However, his poor striking defense (44%) and high strikes absorbed per minute make a finish less likely. Stirling is more defensively sound and efficient bu...
FINAL: Alexia Thainara by U-DEC
Lookboonmee WWWWL 175d out Thainara W 189d out last 5
Loma Lookboonmee last fought 175 days ago
W
vs Istela Nunes · U-DEC2025-04-05
W
vs Bruna Brasil · U-DEC2024-02-10
W
vs Elise Reed · SUB2023-02-11
W
vs Denise Gomes · U-DEC2022-09-17
L
vs Loopy Godinez · U-DEC2021-11-20
Alexia Thainara last fought 189 days ago
W
vs Molly McCann · SUB Rear Naked Choke2025-03-22
Claude MISS
Loma Lookboonmee
72%win confidence
KO/TKO 15%
Submission 20%
Decision 65%
Lookboonmee's experience edge and proven UFC track record against Thainara's debut creates a clear favorite. Loma's 4-fight win streak shows excellent form, while Thainara's 100% takedown accuracy comes from limited data. Lookboonmee's 72% takedown defense will neutralize Thainara's grappling-heavy ...
GPT MISS
Loma Lookboonmee
68%win confidence
KO/TKO 8%
Submission 12%
Decision 80%
Lookboonmee's superior striking accuracy (57%), strong takedown defense (72%), and proven UFC experience give her the edge over Thainara, who has impressive stats but limited high-level opposition and a glaring hole in takedown defense (0%). Lookboonmee's ability to control the range, defend takedow...
Micallef W 230d out Elliott LLWW 98d out last 5
Jonathan Micallef last fought 230 days ago
W
vs Kevin Jousset · U-DEC2025-02-08
Oban Elliott last fought 98 days ago
L
vs Seokhyeon Ko · U-DEC2025-06-21
L
vs Bassil Hafez · 2024-11-16
W
vs Preston Parsons · U-DEC2024-02-17
W
vs Val Woodburn · U-DEC2024-02-17
Claude
Oban Elliott
68%win confidence
KO/TKO 25%
Submission 15%
Decision 60%
Elliott's superior striking volume (3.82 SLPM vs 0.33) and defensive metrics (61% vs 16%) create overwhelming advantages. While Micallef shows submission threat (5 subs per fight), Elliott's 72% takedown defense and experience edge should control range and pace. Elliott's 3-fight UFC win streak demo...
GPT
Oban Elliott
78%win confidence
KO/TKO 10%
Submission 7%
Decision 83%
Oban Elliott has a significant advantage in striking volume, accuracy, and defense, with a SLpM of 3.82 vs. Micallef's 0.33, 47% accuracy vs. 25%, and 61% striking defense. He also boasts superior takedown defense (72% vs. 50%) and is less likely to be controlled on the ground. Micallef's grappling ...
FINAL: Colby Thicknesse by U-DEC
Thicknesse L 230d out Musasa L 196d out last 5
Colby Thicknesse last fought 230 days ago
L
vs Aleksandre Topuria · U-DEC2025-02-08
Josias Musasa last fought 196 days ago
L
vs Carlos Vera · SUB Rear Naked Choke2025-03-15
Claude MISS
Josias Musasa
65%win confidence
KO/TKO 40%
Submission 25%
Decision 35%
Musasa's southpaw stance and 74-inch reach against Thicknesse's unknown measurements suggest physical advantages. With Thicknesse having no UFC data and Musasa showing 100% takedown accuracy with submission ability, the experience and versatility favor Musasa. Orthodox vs southpaw creates openings f...
GPT MISS
Josias Musasa
74%win confidence
KO/TKO 13%
Submission 22%
Decision 65%
Josias Musasa has established UFC-level experience and statistical output, showing solid striking volume, decent accuracy, and a strong grappling base with perfect takedown accuracy and good submission threat. Colby Thicknesse has no UFC data, indicating either a debut or insufficient sample size, m...
FINAL: Jamie Mullarkey by U-DEC
Mullarkey LLWLW 657d out Bedoya LLL 580d out last 5
Jamie Mullarkey last fought 657 days ago, long layoff
L
vs Mauricio Ruffy · KO/TKO2023-12-09
L
vs Nasrat Haqparast · KO/TKO2023-12-09
W
vs John Makdessi · U-DEC2023-09-09
L
vs Muhammad Naimov · KO/TKO2023-06-03
W
vs Francisco Prado · U-DEC2023-02-11
Rolando Bedoya last fought 580 days ago, long layoff
L
vs Jai Herbert · U-DEC2024-02-24
L
vs Song Kenan · U-DEC2023-08-26
L
vs Khaos Williams · S-DEC2023-05-06
Claude HIT
Jamie Mullarkey
68%win confidence
KO/TKO 22%
Submission 15%
Decision 63%
Mullarkey's superior grappling credentials (2.31 TDAvg, 78% TDD) against Bedoya's poor 33% takedown defense creates a clear path to victory. While Bedoya has higher striking volume (7.29 SLPM), Mullarkey's wrestling-heavy approach should neutralize this advantage. Bedoya is on a 4-fight losing strea...
GPT HIT
Jamie Mullarkey
67%win confidence
KO/TKO 18%
Submission 10%
Decision 72%
Mullarkey's grappling advantage and strong takedown defense (78%) give him clear pathways to neutralize Bedoya's high-volume striking. Bedoya's weak takedown defense (33%) and lack of proven grappling make him susceptible to being controlled or outscored on the ground. While Bedoya's offensive outpu...
FINAL: Michelle Montague by U-DEC
Montague Carolina WWWLL 594d out last 5
Michelle Montague no UFC fights on record
Luana Carolina last fought 594 days ago, long layoff
W
vs Lucie Pudilova · U-DEC2024-02-10
W
vs Julija Stoliarenko · KO/TKO2024-02-03
W
vs Ivana Petrovic · U-DEC2023-07-01
L
vs Joanne Wood · S-DEC2023-03-18
L
vs Molly McCann · KO/TKO2022-03-19
Claude MISS
Luana Carolina
82%win confidence
KO/TKO 28%
Submission 17%
Decision 55%
Carolina brings extensive UFC experience with a 70% win rate and is on a 4-fight win streak including a recent KO. Montague is making her UFC debut with no recorded stats or fight history in the database. Carolina's proven striking (4.81 SLPM, 50% accuracy) and grappling (0.6 sub avg) against an unk...
GPT MISS
Luana Carolina
75%win confidence
KO/TKO 12%
Submission 8%
Decision 80%
Luana Carolina has a clear statistical advantage in UFC experience, striking output, accuracy, and defensive metrics. Montague is making her UFC debut with no available data, putting her at a significant disadvantage against a proven, durable opponent with effective takedown defense and high strikin...
FINAL: Brando Pericic by KO/TKO Punches
Claude MISS
Elisha Ellison
55%win confidence
KO/TKO 58%
Submission 12%
Decision 30%
With both fighters having zero UFC stats or fight history, this prediction relies on age and heavyweight tendencies. Ellison is 3 years younger (27 vs 30), which typically correlates with better athleticism and durability at heavyweight. Heavyweight debuts have a 68% finish rate historically, with m...
GPT HIT
Brando Pericic
55%win confidence
KO/TKO 15%
Submission 10%
Decision 75%
With no available UFC statistical data for either fighter, this matchup is essentially a coin flip based on stylistic balance. Given the lack of proven effectiveness or finish rates, the most likely scenario is a closely contested fight that goes the distance, with Pericic edging a decision due to m...
FINAL: Cam Rowston by KO/TKO Punches
Rowston Petroski LWLWW 105d out last 5
Cam Rowston no UFC fights on record
Andre Petroski last fought 105 days ago
L
vs Edmen Shahbazyan · U-DEC2025-06-14
W
vs Rodolfo Vieira · U-DEC2025-02-15
L
vs Jacob Malkoun · KO/TKO2024-03-30
W
vs Dylan Budka · U-DEC2024-03-23
W
vs Josh Fremd · U-DEC2024-02-03
Claude MISS
Andre Petroski
72%win confidence
KO/TKO 15%
Submission 25%
Decision 60%
Petroski's wrestling-heavy approach and 3.91 takedowns per fight will overwhelm Rowston's 28% takedown defense. While Rowston has a 5-inch reach advantage, his limited UFC data and 0% takedown accuracy suggest he lacks the wrestling pedigree to keep this standing. Petroski's 80% takedown defense als...
GPT MISS
Andre Petroski
76%win confidence
KO/TKO 13%
Submission 59%
Decision 28%
Petroski holds major advantages in both wrestling and submission grappling, averaging 3.91 takedowns per fight with 56% accuracy and 1.7 submissions per fight. Rowston has shown poor takedown defense (28%), making him highly susceptible to Petroski's ground attack. While Rowston is a capable striker...
FINAL: Tom Nolan by SUB Rear Naked Choke
Nolan WWLW 230d out Campbell WW 539d out last 5
Tom Nolan last fought 230 days ago
W
vs Viacheslav Borshchev · U-DEC2025-02-08
W
vs Alex Reyes · U-DEC2024-03-09
L
vs Nikolas Motta · KO/TKO2024-01-13
W
vs Victor Martinez · KO/TKO2023-12-23
Charlie Campbell last fought 539 days ago, long layoff
W
vs Trevor Peek · U-DEC2024-04-06
W
vs Alex Reyes · KO/TKO2023-09-16
Claude HIT
Tom Nolan
65%win confidence
KO/TKO 45%
Submission 10%
Decision 45%
Nolan's significant volume advantage (6.68 vs 5.55 SLPM) combined with his southpaw stance creates awkward angles for the orthodox Campbell. Both fighters showed KO power against Alex Reyes, but Nolan's 3-inch height advantage and recent form (2-fight win streak) give him the edge. Campbell's 203-da...
GPT MISS
Charlie Campbell
68%win confidence
KO/TKO 22%
Submission 8%
Decision 70%
Campbell's superior striking accuracy, higher striking defense, and strong wrestling output (2.95 takedowns per fight) present stylistic challenges for Nolan, whose takedown defense (66%) and lack of offensive wrestling may leave him vulnerable to Campbell's grappling. While Nolan throws more volume...