November 22, 2025
UFC Fight Night: Tsarukyan vs. Hooker
Card complete. GPT 5/9 (56%) · Claude 8/13 (62%)
All results
Both models agree 8 of 14 fights
Ryan Loder over Ismail Naurdiev
Claude 72%
GPT 78%
GPT 78%
Abdul Rakhman Yakhyaev over Rafael Cerquiera
Both call KO/TKO
Claude 68%
GPT 81%
GPT 81%
Nurullo Aliev over Shem Rock
Both call Decision
Claude 68%
GPT 80%
GPT 80%
Asu Almabayev over Alex Perez
Both call Decision
Claude 78%
GPT 68%
GPT 68%
Saygid Izagakhmaev over Nicolas Dalby
Both call Decision
Claude 72%
GPT 65%
GPT 65%
Waldo Cortes Acosta over Shamil Gaziev
Both call Decision
Claude 68%
GPT 67%
GPT 67%
Bogdan Grad over Luke Riley
Both call Decision
Claude 58%
GPT 70%
GPT 70%
Denzel Freeman over Marek Bujlo
Both call Decision
Claude 62%
GPT 55%
GPT 55%
Double locks: both at 75% or higher 0 fights
Nothing clears the 75% bar from both models. The genie is hedging tonight.
Build your own list 8 match
Ryan Loder over Ismail Naurdiev
Claude 72%
GPT 78%
GPT 78%
Abdul Rakhman Yakhyaev over Rafael Cerquiera
Both call KO/TKO
Claude 68%
GPT 81%
GPT 81%
Nurullo Aliev over Shem Rock
Both call Decision
Claude 68%
GPT 80%
GPT 80%
Asu Almabayev over Alex Perez
Both call Decision
Claude 78%
GPT 68%
GPT 68%
Saygid Izagakhmaev over Nicolas Dalby
Both call Decision
Claude 72%
GPT 65%
GPT 65%
Waldo Cortes Acosta over Shamil Gaziev
Both call Decision
Claude 68%
GPT 67%
GPT 67%
Bogdan Grad over Luke Riley
Both call Decision
Claude 58%
GPT 70%
GPT 70%
Denzel Freeman over Marek Bujlo
Both call Decision
Claude 62%
GPT 55%
GPT 55%
Win confidence is the model's probability that its pick wins: 55 to 64 is a shrug, 65 to 74 is confident, 75 and up is the model betting its reputation.
KO/TKO, Submission, Decision is how the model splits the ways the fight ends, out of 100.
Odds are the sportsbook moneyline with the bookmaker margin removed, so the two percentages sum to 100. When a model's confidence beats the market's implied number, that gap is the value.
Elo is an opponent adjusted rating built from every UFC fight since 1994. Click any Elo number on the card for the full explanation, including what the star means.
FINAL: Arman Tsarukyan by SUB Arm Triangle
Tsarukyan WWWWL 588d out Hooker WWWLL 623d out last 5
Arman Tsarukyan last fought 588 days ago, long layoff
W
vs Charles Oliveira · S-DEC2024-04-13
W
vs Beneil Dariush · KO/TKO2023-12-02
W
vs Joaquim Silva · KO/TKO2023-06-17
W
vs Damir Ismagulov · U-DEC2022-12-17
L
vs Mateusz Gamrot · U-DEC2022-06-25
Dan Hooker last fought 623 days ago, long layoff
W
vs Mateusz Gamrot · S-DEC2024-03-09
W
vs Jalin Turner · S-DEC2023-07-08
W
vs Claudio Puelles · KO/TKO2022-11-12
L
vs Arnold Allen · KO/TKO2022-03-19
L
vs Islam Makhachev · SUB2021-10-30
Claude HIT
Arman Tsarukyan
75%win confidence
KO/TKO 25%
Submission 15%
Decision 60%
Tsarukyan's superior wrestling (3.25 takedowns per fight vs 0.73) and excellent takedown defense (75%) will neutralize Hooker's striking volume advantage. While Hooker lands 5.03 strikes per minute compared to Tsarukyan's 3.79, Arman's 53% striking defense and ability to mix in takedowns will disrup...
FINAL: Ian Machado Garry by U-DEC
Muhammad LWWWW 196d out Garry WLWWW 210d out last 5
Belal Muhammad last fought 196 days ago
L
vs Jack Della Maddalena · U-DEC2025-05-10
W
vs Leon Edwards · U-DEC2024-02-17
W
vs Gilbert Burns · U-DEC2023-05-06
W
vs Sean Brady · KO/TKO2022-10-22
W
vs Vicente Luque · U-DEC2022-04-16
Ian Machado Garry last fought 210 days ago
W
vs Carlos Prates · U-DEC2025-04-26
L
vs Shavkat Rakhmonov · U-DEC2024-12-07
W
vs Geoff Neal · S-DEC2024-02-17
W
vs Michael Page · U-DEC2024-01-27
W
vs Neil Magny · U-DEC2023-08-19
Claude MISS
Belal Muhammad
68%win confidence
KO/TKO 10%
Submission 15%
Decision 75%
Muhammad's elite takedown defense (89%) and relentless pressure wrestling (2.28 takedowns per fight) present significant problems for Garry's striking-heavy approach. While Garry has better striking metrics (55% accuracy vs 43%, 5.5 SLPM vs 4.39), Muhammad's experience edge and proven ability to neu...
FINAL: Volkan Oezdemir by KO/TKO Punches
Oezdemir WWWLW 364d out Menifield WWLWL 161d out last 5
Volkan Oezdemir last fought 364 days ago
W
vs Carlos Ulberg · 2024-11-23
W
vs Johnny Walker · KO/TKO2024-01-20
W
vs Bogdan Guskov · SUB2023-09-02
L
vs Nikita Krylov · U-DEC2022-10-22
W
vs Paul Craig · U-DEC2022-07-23
Alonzo Menifield last fought 161 days ago
W
vs Oumar Sy · U-DEC2025-06-14
W
vs Julius Walker · S-DEC2025-02-22
L
vs Azamat Murzakanov · KO/TKO2024-02-24
W
vs Dustin Jacoby · U-DEC2023-12-16
L
vs Carlos Ulberg · KO/TKO2023-12-16
Claude HIT
Volkan Oezdemir
72%win confidence
KO/TKO 65%
Submission 10%
Decision 25%
Oezdemir's technical striking superiority and momentum advantage make him a strong favorite. He's on a 4-fight win streak with 2 KOs and a submission, while Menifield has lost 4 of his last 5, all by KO/TKO. Volkan's 55% striking defense compared to Menifield's 49% shows better defensive responsibil...
FINAL: Myktybek Orolbai by KO/TKO Punch
Hermansson LWLWL 147d out Orolbai WWW 154d out last 5
Jack Hermansson last fought 147 days ago
L
vs Gregory Rodrigues · KO/TKO Punch2025-06-28
W
vs Joe Pyfer · U-DEC2024-02-10
L
vs Roman Dolidze · KO/TKO2022-12-03
W
vs Chris Curtis · U-DEC2022-07-23
L
vs Sean Strickland · S-DEC2022-02-05
Myktybek Orolbai last fought 154 days ago
W
vs Tofiq Musayev · SUB Kimura2025-06-21
W
vs Elves Brener · U-DEC2023-12-09
W
vs Uros Medic · SUB2023-11-18
Claude HIT
Myktybek Orolbai
72%win confidence
KO/TKO 15%
Submission 25%
Decision 60%
This is a fascinating clash between a veteran middleweight dropping to welterweight and an undefeated prospect. Hermansson's significant weight cut from 185 to 170 is extremely concerning - that's a 15-pound drop for a 36-year-old fighter. Orolbai's elite wrestling (7.44 takedowns per fight at 44% a...
FINAL: Waldo Cortes Acosta by KO/TKO Punch
Acosta Gaziev WLWW 294d out last 5
Waldo Cortes Acosta no UFC fights on record
Shamil Gaziev last fought 294 days ago
W
vs Thomas Petersen · KO/TKO Punch2025-02-01
L
vs Jairzinho Rozenstruik · KO/TKO2024-03-02
W
vs Don'Tale Mayes · U-DEC2024-02-24
W
vs Martin Buday · KO/TKO2023-12-16
Claude HIT
Waldo Cortes Acosta
68%win confidence
KO/TKO 25%
Submission 10%
Decision 65%
Cortes Acosta holds significant striking volume advantage (5.53 vs 2.43 SLPM) and better defensive metrics (55% vs 44%). While Gaziev has shown knockout power and better takedown success, his recent KO loss raises durability concerns. Cortes Acosta's 2-inch reach advantage and superior output should...
GPT HIT
Waldo Cortes Acosta
67%win confidence
KO/TKO 18%
Submission 7%
Decision 75%
Cortes Acosta's superior striking volume, accuracy, and defensive efficiency give him a statistical edge over Gaziev, who absorbs more strikes than he lands and has lower striking defense. While Gaziev's grappling is more active, his low takedown accuracy and Acosta's solid takedown defense (72%) li...
FINAL: Kyoji Horiguchi by SUB Rear Naked Choke
Ulanbekov WWWWL 154d out Horiguchi WWWLW 3290d out last 5
Tagir Ulanbekov last fought 154 days ago
W
vs Azat Maksum · U-DEC2025-06-21
W
vs Clayton Carpenter · U-DEC2025-01-18
W
vs Cody Durden · SUB2023-12-16
W
vs Nate Maness · SUB2022-11-05
L
vs Tim Elliott · U-DEC2022-03-05
Kyoji Horiguchi last fought 3290 days ago, long layoff
W
vs Ali Bagautinov · U-DEC2016-11-19
W
vs Neil Seery · U-DEC2016-05-08
W
vs Chico Camus · U-DEC2015-09-26
L
vs Demetrious Johnson · SUB2015-04-25
W
vs Louis Gaudinot · U-DEC2015-01-03
Claude MISS
Tagir Ulanbekov
72%win confidence
KO/TKO 15%
Submission 55%
Decision 30%
Ulanbekov's grappling-heavy approach (3.71 TDAvg, 2.1 SubAvg) presents major problems for Horiguchi, who hasn't competed in UFC since 2016. The 8-year layoff is massive at flyweight. Ulanbekov's recent submission victories show his ground game is sharp, while Horiguchi's 55% TDD and zero submission ...
GPT HIT
Kyoji Horiguchi
67%win confidence
KO/TKO 14%
Submission 10%
Decision 76%
Kyoji Horiguchi holds a significant striking differential (+1.15 vs -0.08), better striking defense (62% vs 51%), and a 4-inch reach advantage. While Ulanbekov offers higher submission threat (2.1 submissions per fight) and more takedown volume, Horiguchi's superior footwork, speed, and proven abili...
FINAL: Luke Riley by KO/TKO Punches
Grad LW 154d out Riley last 5
Bogdan Grad last fought 154 days ago
L
vs Muhammad Naimov · U-DEC2025-06-21
W
vs Lucas Alexander · KO/TKO Punches2025-02-01
Luke Riley no UFC fights on record
Claude MISS
Bogdan Grad
58%win confidence
KO/TKO 20%
Submission 15%
Decision 65%
Limited data on Riley makes this difficult, but Grad's 15-3 record and UFC experience provide the edge. Grad's 6.35 SLPM output and 2.75 TDAvg suggest a well-rounded approach. Riley being undefeated (11-0) is impressive but untested at UFC level. Grad's poor defensive metrics (49% StrDef, 0% TDD) ar...
GPT MISS
Bogdan Grad
70%win confidence
KO/TKO 20%
Submission 10%
Decision 70%
Bogdan Grad has significant statistical advantages in striking volume, accuracy, and grappling activity, while Luke Riley's UFC-level data is unavailable. Grad's high output (6.35 SLPM) and aggressive takedown attempts (2.75 per fight) suggest he can dictate the pace. However, Grad's poor defensive ...
FINAL: Nicolas Dalby by S-DEC
Dalby LLWWW 210d out Izagakhmaev last 5
Nicolas Dalby last fought 210 days ago
L
vs Randy Brown · KO/TKO Punch2025-04-26
L
vs Rinat Fakhretdinov · S-DEC2024-01-20
W
vs Gabriel Bonfim · KO/TKO2023-11-04
W
vs Muslim Salikhov · U-DEC2023-06-17
W
vs Warlley Alves · S-DEC2023-01-21
Saygid Izagakhmaev no UFC fights on record
Claude MISS
Saygid Izagakhmaev
72%win confidence
KO/TKO 15%
Submission 25%
Decision 60%
Despite limited UFC stats data for Izagakhmaev, his 22-2 record and recent form suggest elite-level skills. Dalby shows vulnerability with back-to-back decision losses and inconsistent striking accuracy (43%). Izagakhmaev's wrestling-heavy background from the Caucasus region typically translates to ...
GPT MISS
Saygid Izagakhmaev
65%win confidence
KO/TKO 5%
Submission 15%
Decision 80%
Dalby is a durable, high-volume striker with decent takedown defense, but his 58% TD defense is exploitable. Izagakhmaev, despite no UFC stats, is a proven elite grappler in other promotions (notably under Khabib's tutelage). Dalby has struggled against strong wrestlers and can be controlled on the ...
FINAL: Asu Almabayev by SUB Guillotine Choke
Perez WLLLL 574d out Almabayev LWWWW 266d out last 5
Alex Perez last fought 574 days ago, long layoff
W
vs Matheus Nicolau · KO/TKO2024-04-27
L
vs Muhammad Mokaev · U-DEC2024-03-02
L
vs Tatsuro Taira · KO/TKO2024-01-13
L
vs Alexandre Pantoja · SUB2022-07-30
L
vs Deiveson Figueiredo · SUB2020-11-21
Asu Almabayev last fought 266 days ago
L
vs Manel Kape · KO/TKO Punches2025-03-01
W
vs Matheus Nicolau · U-DEC2024-04-27
W
vs CJ Vergara · U-DEC2024-03-09
W
vs Jose Johnson · U-DEC2024-01-13
W
vs Ode Osbourne · SUB2023-08-05
Claude HIT
Asu Almabayev
78%win confidence
KO/TKO 10%
Submission 30%
Decision 60%
Almabayev's perfect 5-0 UFC record with dominant wrestling (5.08 takedowns per fight at 50% accuracy) presents a nightmare matchup for Perez. While Perez has superior striking volume (4.19 vs 2.11 SLPM), Almabayev's 1.7 submissions per fight and relentless grappling pressure will likely dictate the ...
GPT HIT
Asu Almabayev
68%win confidence
KO/TKO 8%
Submission 22%
Decision 70%
Almabayev's superior grappling volume and submission threat should allow him to control most positions. While Perez is the more experienced UFC fighter with better striking output and takedown defense, Almabayev's relentless wrestling pace (5.08 TDs per fight, 1.7 subs per fight) and high striking a...
Claude
Abdul Rakhman Yakhyaev
68%win confidence
KO/TKO 65%
Submission 5%
Decision 30%
Yakhyaev's striking metrics are extraordinary - 32 SLPM with 88% accuracy and 66% defense compared to Cerquiera's poor 1.61 SLPM with 44% accuracy and 36% defense. The southpaw vs orthodox matchup favors Yakhyaev's superior volume and accuracy. Cerquiera absorbs 4.88 strikes per minute while landing...
GPT
Abdul Rakhman Yakhyaev
81%win confidence
KO/TKO 65%
Submission 2%
Decision 33%
Yakhyaev's overwhelming striking output (32 SLpM, 88% accuracy, +30 differential) and strong defensive statistics (66% striking defense, 100% takedown defense) indicate a dominant stand-up performance. Cerquiera absorbs far more strikes than he lands (4.88 SApM vs 1.61 SLpM, 36% defense), suggesting...
FINAL: Aleksandre Topuria by U-DEC
Almakhan WL 196d out Topuria W 287d out last 5
Bekzat Almakhan last fought 196 days ago
W
vs Brad Katona · KO/TKO Punch2025-05-10
L
vs Umar Nurmagomedov · U-DEC2024-03-02
Aleksandre Topuria last fought 287 days ago
W
vs Colby Thicknesse · U-DEC2025-02-08
Claude HIT
Aleksandre Topuria
65%win confidence
KO/TKO 25%
Submission 20%
Decision 55%
This matchup presents significant data limitations, but Almakhan's concerning 18% striking accuracy and -4.33 striking differential from his lone UFC appearance suggests major technical deficiencies. While Topuria lacks UFC data, his brother Ilia's elite pedigree and the Topuria family's strong wres...
GPT MISS
Bekzat Almakhan
60%win confidence
KO/TKO 5%
Submission 5%
Decision 90%
Both fighters have extremely limited UFC data, but Almakhan has at least some offensive activity and cage experience at this level, whereas Topuria has no measurable output or demonstrated effectiveness. Almakhan's minuscule striking output and low defense are concerning, but with Topuria showing no...
FINAL: Ismail Naurdiev by KO/TKO Punch
Naurdiev LLWLW 154d out Loder LW 203d out last 5
Ismail Naurdiev last fought 154 days ago
L
vs JunYong Park · U-DEC2025-06-21
L
vs Sean Brady · U-DEC2020-02-29
W
vs Siyar Bahadurzada · U-DEC2019-09-28
L
vs Chance Rencountre · U-DEC2019-07-06
W
vs Michel Prazeres · U-DEC2019-02-23
Ryan Loder last fought 203 days ago
L
vs Azamat Bekoev · KO/TKO Punch2025-05-03
W
vs Robert Valentin · KO/TKO2024-03-16
Claude MISS
Ryan Loder
72%win confidence
KO/TKO 55%
Submission 15%
Decision 30%
Loder's striking metrics are exceptional - 80% accuracy with 6.16 strikes landed per minute and a +6.01 differential. His recent KO victories demonstrate finishing power at middleweight. Naurdiev's 52% accuracy and lower volume (3.17 SLPM) combined with just 68% striking defense makes him vulnerable...
GPT MISS
Ryan Loder
78%win confidence
KO/TKO 10%
Submission 55%
Decision 35%
Loder's statistical profile is dominant across key areas: he lands strikes at nearly double the rate of Naurdiev with vastly higher accuracy (80% vs 52%), absorbs almost no damage (SApM 0.15 vs 1.3), and boasts a perfect 100% takedown defense. Critically, his submission average (2.2 per fight) far e...
FINAL: Nurullo Aliev by U-DEC
Aliev WW 315d out Rock last 5
Nurullo Aliev last fought 315 days ago
W
vs Joe Solecki · U-DEC2025-01-11
W
vs Rafael Alves · M-DEC2023-02-25
Shem Rock no UFC fights on record
Claude HIT
Nurullo Aliev
68%win confidence
KO/TKO 15%
Submission 25%
Decision 60%
Aliev brings proven UFC experience with a 100% win rate and well-rounded skillset. His 3.06 takedowns per fight at 44% accuracy gives him a clear grappling path against Rock, who has zero UFC data. Aliev's +2.04 striking differential and 59% defense show competent standup to complement his wrestling...
GPT HIT
Nurullo Aliev
80%win confidence
KO/TKO 10%
Submission 15%
Decision 75%
Nurullo Aliev has a significant statistical edge, showing a strong wrestling base (3.06 takedowns per fight, 44% accuracy) and excellent defensive metrics (0.46 SApM, 59% striking defense). Shem Rock has no verifiable UFC data, indicating a lack of proven performance at this level. Aliev's control a...
FINAL: Denzel Freeman by U-DEC
Claude HIT
Denzel Freeman
62%win confidence
KO/TKO 25%
Submission 10%
Decision 65%
This heavyweight debut presents limited UFC data, but Freeman's 6-1 regional record provides crucial insight. His recent split with Kelton Sneve (1-1) and draws with Sheeley suggest competitive fights at the regional level. The southpaw vs orthodox dynamic favors Freeman's awkward angles against a d...
GPT HIT
Denzel Freeman
55%win confidence
KO/TKO 25%
Submission 20%
Decision 55%
With both fighters lacking UFC-level statistical data, the prediction leans very slightly toward Denzel Freeman due to the stylistic note that both have balanced games and there is no clear physical or technical edge. The lack of data and neutral matchup means this is a low-confidence, decision-base...