February 21, 2026
UFC Fight Night: Strickland vs. Hernandez
Card complete. Claude 9/13 (69%) · GPT 8/13 (62%)
All results
Both models agree 11 of 14 fights
Michel Pereira over Zach Reese
Both call KO/TKO
Claude 80%
GPT 78%
GPT 78%
Chidi Njokuani over Carlos Leal
Both call KO/TKO
Claude 85%
GPT 72%
GPT 72%
Jacobe Smith over Josiah Harrell
Both call Decision
Claude 75%
GPT 72%
GPT 72%
Serghei Spivac over Ante Delija
Both call Submission
Claude 72%
GPT 73%
GPT 73%
Carli Judice over Juliana Miller
Both call Decision
Claude 72%
GPT 72%
GPT 72%
Punahele Soriano over Ramiz Brahimaj
Claude 72%
GPT 69%
GPT 69%
Luis Gurule over Alden Coria
Both call Decision
Claude 68%
GPT 72%
GPT 72%
Joselyne Edwards over Nora Cornolle
Both call Decision
Claude 71%
GPT 68%
GPT 68%
Yadier del Valle over Jordan Leavitt
Both call Decision
Claude 65%
GPT 74%
GPT 74%
Jean-Paul Lebosnoyani over Phil Rowe
Claude 68%
GPT 69%
GPT 69%
Ode Osbourne over Alibi Idiris
Both call Decision
Claude 62%
GPT 69%
GPT 69%
Double locks: both at 75% or higher 1 fight
Michel Pereira over Zach Reese
Both call KO/TKO
Claude 80%
GPT 78%
GPT 78%
Build your own list 11 match
Michel Pereira over Zach Reese
Both call KO/TKO
Claude 80%
GPT 78%
GPT 78%
Chidi Njokuani over Carlos Leal
Both call KO/TKO
Claude 85%
GPT 72%
GPT 72%
Jacobe Smith over Josiah Harrell
Both call Decision
Claude 75%
GPT 72%
GPT 72%
Serghei Spivac over Ante Delija
Both call Submission
Claude 72%
GPT 73%
GPT 73%
Carli Judice over Juliana Miller
Both call Decision
Claude 72%
GPT 72%
GPT 72%
Punahele Soriano over Ramiz Brahimaj
Claude 72%
GPT 69%
GPT 69%
Luis Gurule over Alden Coria
Both call Decision
Claude 68%
GPT 72%
GPT 72%
Joselyne Edwards over Nora Cornolle
Both call Decision
Claude 71%
GPT 68%
GPT 68%
Yadier del Valle over Jordan Leavitt
Both call Decision
Claude 65%
GPT 74%
GPT 74%
Jean-Paul Lebosnoyani over Phil Rowe
Claude 68%
GPT 69%
GPT 69%
Ode Osbourne over Alibi Idiris
Both call Decision
Claude 62%
GPT 69%
GPT 69%
Win confidence is the model's probability that its pick wins: 55 to 64 is a shrug, 65 to 74 is confident, 75 and up is the model betting its reputation.
KO/TKO, Submission, Decision is how the model splits the ways the fight ends, out of 100.
Odds are the sportsbook moneyline with the bookmaker margin removed, so the two percentages sum to 100. When a model's confidence beats the market's implied number, that gap is the value.
Elo is an opponent adjusted rating built from every UFC fight since 1994. Click any Elo number on the card for the full explanation, including what the star means.
FINAL: Sean Strickland by KO/TKO Punches
Strickland LLWWW 378d out Hernandez WWWWW 196d out last 5
Sean Strickland last fought 378 days ago
L
vs Dricus Du Plessis · U-DEC2025-02-08
L
vs Dricus Du Plessis · S-DEC2024-01-20
W
vs Paulo Costa · S-DEC2024-01-01
W
vs Israel Adesanya · U-DEC2023-09-09
W
vs Abus Magomedov · KO/TKO2023-07-01
Anthony Hernandez last fought 196 days ago
W
vs Roman Dolidze · SUB Rear Naked Choke2025-08-09
W
vs Brendan Allen · U-DEC2025-02-22
W
vs Michel Pereira · KO/TKO2024-04-27
W
vs Roman Kopylov · SUB2024-02-17
W
vs Edmen Shahbazyan · KO/TKO2023-05-20
Claude MISS
Anthony Hernandez
65%win confidence
KO/TKO 20%
Submission 25%
Decision 55%
Hernandez's elite grappling pressure (6.64 takedowns per fight vs Strickland's 0.78) and superior submission threat (2.3 subs per fight) present major problems for Strickland's primarily striking-based approach. While Strickland has better striking defense (61% vs 46%), Hernandez's relentless pace a...
GPT HIT
Sean Strickland
68%win confidence
KO/TKO 28%
Submission 7%
Decision 65%
Hernandez's relentless wrestling (6.64 TD avg, high sub rate) is dangerous, but Strickland's elite takedown defense (77%), cardio, and pace-heavy jab/pressure striking should allow him to stuff or quickly scramble from many attempts and pile up damage over five rounds. Strickland's superior defensiv...
FINAL: Uros Medic by KO/TKO Punch
Neal LLLWW 189d out Medic WWLWL 105d out last 5
Geoff Neal last fought 189 days ago
L
vs Carlos Prates · KO/TKO Spinning Back Elbow2025-08-16
L
vs Ian Machado Garry · S-DEC2024-02-17
L
vs Shavkat Rakhmonov · SUB2023-03-04
W
vs Vicente Luque · KO/TKO2022-08-06
W
vs Santiago Ponzinibbio · S-DEC2021-12-11
Uros Medic last fought 105 days ago
W
vs Muslim Salikhov · KO/TKO Punch2025-11-08
W
vs Gilbert Urbina · KO/TKO Punch2025-08-09
L
vs Punahele Soriano · KO/TKO Punch2025-01-11
W
vs Tim Means · KO/TKO2024-04-27
L
vs Myktybek Orolbai · SUB2023-11-18
Claude HIT
Uros Medic
58%win confidence
KO/TKO 45%
Submission 10%
Decision 45%
Medic's superior striking metrics (60% accuracy vs Neal's 51%, better striking differential at +2.33 vs Neal's -0.39) combined with his recent finishing streak gives him the edge. Neal has lost 3 of his last 5, including TKO losses to Carlos Prates and submission to Rakhmonov, showing vulnerability ...
GPT MISS
Geoff Neal
68%win confidence
KO/TKO 58%
Submission 4%
Decision 38%
Neal has faced and finished far higher-caliber opposition at welterweight, carries proven one-shot power late into fights, and owns a major defensive edge in takedown defense that should keep this almost entirely standing. Medic's offensive metrics are inflated against lower-level, smaller opponents...
FINAL: Melquizael Costa by KO/TKO Spinning Back Kick
Ige WWLLW 315d out Costa WWWWW 70d out last 5
Dan Ige last fought 315 days ago
W
vs Sean Woodson · KO/TKO Punches2025-04-12
W
vs Andre Fili · KO/TKO2024-02-10
L
vs Diego Lopes · U-DEC2024-01-27
L
vs Bryce Mitchell · U-DEC2023-09-23
W
vs Nate Landwehr · U-DEC2023-06-10
Melquizael Costa last fought 70 days ago
W
vs Morgan Charriere · KO/TKO Kick2025-12-13
W
vs Julian Erosa · U-DEC2025-05-17
W
vs Christian Rodriguez · U-DEC2025-03-29
W
vs Andre Fili · SUB Guillotine Choke2025-02-22
W
vs Shayilan Nuerdanbieke · SUB2024-01-13
Claude HIT
Melquizael Costa
62%win confidence
KO/TKO 25%
Submission 40%
Decision 35%
Costa's 5-fight winning streak with 2 recent submissions showcases his evolving ground game against Ige's 2-3 recent record. Costa's superior grappling metrics (2.5 takedowns per fight, 1.1 submissions per fight) create constant threats that Ige's 58% takedown defense may struggle with. While Ige ha...
GPT MISS
Dan Ige
63%win confidence
KO/TKO 18%
Submission 7%
Decision 75%
Ige's proven durability and five-round experience against elite featherweights, combined with slightly better striking efficiency and defensive metrics, should allow him to edge the stand-up over three rounds. Costa's higher takedown and submission output is notable, but his weaker takedown defense ...
FINAL: Serghei Spivac by U-DEC
Spivac LWLWW 399d out Delija W 168d out last 5
Serghei Spivac last fought 399 days ago
L
vs Jailton Almeida · KO/TKO Punches2025-01-18
W
vs Marcin Tybura · SUB2024-03-02
L
vs Ciryl Gane · KO/TKO2023-09-02
W
vs Derrick Lewis · SUB2023-02-04
W
vs Augusto Sakai · KO/TKO2022-08-06
Ante Delija last fought 168 days ago
W
vs Marcin Tybura · KO/TKO Punches2025-09-06
Claude HIT
Serghei Spivac
72%win confidence
KO/TKO 15%
Submission 55%
Decision 30%
Spivac's grappling-heavy approach and submission expertise create significant problems for Delija. Despite recent losses to elite competition (Gane, Almeida), Spivac has shown consistent submission threat against mid-tier heavyweights. Delija's recent TKO losses to Cortes-Acosta and Moldavsky expose...
GPT HIT
Serghei Spivac
73%win confidence
KO/TKO 30%
Submission 38%
Decision 32%
Spivac is a proven UFC heavyweight with a strong wrestling and top-control game (4.6 TDs per 15 minutes at 65% accuracy) and consistent finishing ability on the mat. Delija is debuting in the UFC and historically has struggled when forced to defend prolonged grappling sequences. Over three rounds, S...
FINAL: Jacobe Smith by KO/TKO Punches
Smith WW 238d out Harrell last 5
Jacobe Smith last fought 238 days ago
W
vs Niko Price · SUB Rear Naked Choke2025-06-28
W
vs Preston Parsons · KO/TKO Punch2025-01-11
Josiah Harrell no UFC fights on record
Claude HIT
Jacobe Smith
75%win confidence
KO/TKO 15%
Submission 25%
Decision 60%
Smith shows significant statistical advantages despite limited UFC data. His 76% striking accuracy and elite 87% takedown accuracy suggest a well-rounded skill set. With 13.26 takedowns per fight average, he'll likely dominate the grappling exchanges against Harrell who has no recorded stats. Smith'...
GPT HIT
Jacobe Smith
72%win confidence
KO/TKO 22%
Submission 18%
Decision 60%
Smith's early UFC stats show extreme wrestling volume and efficiency (13+ TDs per 15 with 87% accuracy and very high striking accuracy), indicating a control-heavy, takedown-centric approach. Harrell has no recorded UFC stats and historically relies more on aggression and scrambling than structured ...
FINAL: Michel Pereira by S-DEC
Reese WL 105d out Pereira LLLWW 182d out last 5
Zach Reese last fought 105 days ago
W
vs Jackson McVey · SUB Rear Naked Choke2025-11-08
L
vs Cody Brundage · KO/TKO2023-12-02
Michel Pereira last fought 182 days ago
L
vs Kyle Daukaus · KO/TKO Elbows2025-08-23
L
vs Abus Magomedov · U-DEC2025-04-26
L
vs Anthony Hernandez · KO/TKO2024-04-27
W
vs Michal Oleksiejczuk · SUB2024-03-09
W
vs Ihor Potieria · SUB2023-12-09
Claude HIT
Michel Pereira
80%win confidence
KO/TKO 55%
Submission 20%
Decision 25%
Pereira's experience and recent form heavily favor him despite coming off two losses. His 4.46 SLPM output and 52% striking defense significantly outclass Reese's 3.93 SLPM with 0% recorded defense. Reese's lone UFC fight ended in a KO loss, while Pereira has shown finishing ability with 3 submissio...
GPT HIT
Michel Pereira
78%win confidence
KO/TKO 55%
Submission 8%
Decision 37%
Pereira brings a large sample of UFC-level experience, more balanced offense, and proven durability against higher-tier competition, while Reese's UFC stats are extremely limited and show major defensive red flags (very high SApM, 0% listed TD defense, and reliance on opportunistic submissions). Per...
FINAL: Carlos Leal by U-DEC
Njokuani LWWWL 224d out Leal W 350d out last 5
Chidi Njokuani last fought 224 days ago
L
vs Jake Matthews · SUB Rear Naked Choke2025-07-12
W
vs Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos · KO/TKO Knee2025-03-15
W
vs Jared Gooden · U-DEC2024-04-27
W
vs Rhys McKee · S-DEC2024-03-30
L
vs Michal Oleksiejczuk · KO/TKO2023-08-26
Carlos Leal last fought 350 days ago
W
vs Alex Morono · KO/TKO Punches2025-03-08
Claude MISS
Chidi Njokuani
85%win confidence
KO/TKO 65%
Submission 5%
Decision 30%
Njokuani presents an overwhelming mismatch against Leal who has zero recorded UFC statistics. Njokuani's 3-fight win streak at welterweight shows excellent form after dropping from middleweight. His massive 6-inch reach advantage (80" vs 74") combined with 4.59 SLPM output and 63% accuracy creates a...
GPT MISS
Chidi Njokuani
72%win confidence
KO/TKO 58%
Submission 5%
Decision 37%
Njokuani's proven UFC-level striking efficiency (4.59 SLpM at 63% accuracy, positive differential, and solid 74% takedown defense) combined with clear height and reach advantages strongly favors him in a predominantly stand-up matchup against Leal, whose UFC statistical profile is effectively unknow...
Osbourne LWLLL 196d out Idiris L 189d out last 5
Ode Osbourne last fought 196 days ago
L
vs Steve Erceg · U-DEC2025-08-09
W
vs Luis Gurule · KO/TKO Punch2025-04-05
L
vs Ronaldo Rodriguez · U-DEC2024-03-30
L
vs Jafel Filho · SUB2024-03-16
L
vs Asu Almabayev · SUB2023-08-05
Alibi Idiris last fought 189 days ago
L
vs Joseph Morales · SUB Triangle Choke2025-08-16
Claude
Ode Osbourne
62%win confidence
KO/TKO 25%
Submission 15%
Decision 60%
Osbourne enters with concerning form (4-fight losing streak) but faces a UFC debutant with zero recorded stats. Despite his struggles, Osbourne's 73-inch reach advantage and southpaw stance create immediate problems for Idiris. His 3.26 SLPM output and 40% accuracy aren't elite, but against an unkno...
GPT
Ode Osbourne
69%win confidence
KO/TKO 32%
Submission 18%
Decision 40%
Osbourne has substantial UFC experience, proven finishing ability, and a functional southpaw striking/grappling game, while Idiris enters with no UFC data and unknown durability at this level. However, Osbourne's negative strike differential, inconsistent defense, and tendency to slow late slightly ...
FINAL: Alden Coria by U-DEC
Coria W 161d out Gurule LL 161d out last 5
Alden Coria last fought 161 days ago
W
vs Alessandro Costa · KO/TKO Punches2025-09-13
Luis Gurule last fought 161 days ago
L
vs Jesus Aguilar · U-DEC2025-09-13
L
vs Ode Osbourne · KO/TKO Punch2025-04-05
Claude MISS
Luis Gurule
68%win confidence
KO/TKO 30%
Submission 10%
Decision 60%
Gurule's striking metrics paint a clear picture - 7.0 SLPM with 50% accuracy and 58% defense creates a massive advantage over Coria's non-existent UFC stats. The 64-inch reach gives Gurule compact power and defensive responsibility. His +2.73 striking differential showcases offensive output while ma...
GPT MISS
Luis Gurule
72%win confidence
KO/TKO 33%
Submission 7%
Decision 60%
Gurule brings proven UFC-level output and efficiency (7 SLpM on 50% accuracy with positive differential) against an essentially unknown sample in Coria, whose UFC stats are blank. Unless Coria is a significantly above-average finisher or wrestler, Gurule's pace, accuracy, and defensive metrics shoul...
FINAL: Joselyne Edwards by SUB Rear Naked Choke
Cornolle WLWW 315d out Edwards WWWLL 196d out last 5
Nora Cornolle last fought 315 days ago
W
vs Hailey Cowan · SUB Rear Naked Choke2025-04-12
L
vs Jacqueline Cavalcanti · S-DEC2024-04-06
W
vs Melissa Mullins · KO/TKO2024-04-06
W
vs Joselyne Edwards · U-DEC2023-09-02
Joselyne Edwards last fought 196 days ago
W
vs Priscila Cachoeira · KO/TKO Punch2025-08-09
W
vs Chelsea Chandler · KO/TKO Punches2025-04-26
W
vs Tamires Vidal · SUB2024-04-27
L
vs Ailin Perez · U-DEC2024-01-01
L
vs Nora Cornolle · U-DEC2023-09-02
Claude HIT
Joselyne Edwards
71%win confidence
KO/TKO 15%
Submission 35%
Decision 50%
Edwards holds significant advantages across multiple domains. Her 4.48 SLPM output exceeds Cornolle's 3.41, while her grappling threat (1.23 takedowns per fight, 0.6 submissions) creates constant danger. Edwards' recent submission victories showcase evolved grappling, addressing her previous decisio...
GPT HIT
Joselyne Edwards
68%win confidence
KO/TKO 17%
Submission 18%
Decision 65%
Edwards' higher output, more proven offensive wrestling, and superior submission threat give her more paths to win over three rounds. Cornolle is the cleaner, more efficient striker with better defense, but her low takedown accuracy and limited finishing metrics suggest she may struggle to deter Edw...
FINAL: Punahele Soriano by U-DEC
Brahimaj WLLWL 140d out Soriano WWWLL 140d out last 5
Ramiz Brahimaj last fought 140 days ago
W
vs Austin Vanderford · SUB Guillotine Choke2025-10-04
L
vs Mickey Gall · 2024-11-16
L
vs Themba Gorimbo · U-DEC2023-12-23
W
vs Micheal Gillmore · SUB2022-02-26
L
vs Court McGee · U-DEC2022-01-15
Punahele Soriano last fought 140 days ago
W
vs Nikolay Veretennikov · U-DEC2025-10-04
W
vs Uros Medic · KO/TKO Punch2025-01-11
W
vs Miguel Baeza · U-DEC2024-01-06
L
vs Dustin Stoltzfus · SUB2023-12-02
L
vs Roman Kopylov · KO/TKO2023-01-14
Claude HIT
Punahele Soriano
72%win confidence
KO/TKO 25%
Submission 15%
Decision 60%
Soriano's significant striking volume advantage (4.89 vs 1.74 SLPM) and superior accuracy (53% vs 41%) should overwhelm Brahimaj's low-output style. While Brahimaj has submission threats (1.6 sub avg), Soriano's recent move to welterweight has revitalized him with back-to-back wins. Brahimaj is on a...
GPT HIT
Punahele Soriano
69%win confidence
KO/TKO 55%
Submission 7%
Decision 38%
Soriano's much higher striking volume and accuracy (4.89 SLpM at 53%) against Brahimaj's negative striking differential (-1.95, 1.74 SLpM, 3.69 SApM) strongly favor Puna in extended stand-up exchanges. Brahimaj's best path is grappling and submissions, but his takedown accuracy (35%) and TD defense ...
FINAL: Jean-Paul Lebosnoyani by S-DEC
Rowe LWLLW 112d out Lebosnoyani last 5
Phil Rowe last fought 112 days ago
L
vs Seokhyeon Ko · U-DEC2025-11-01
W
vs Ange Loosa · KO/TKO Punches2025-06-14
L
vs Jake Matthews · U-DEC2024-01-01
L
vs Neil Magny · S-DEC2023-06-24
W
vs Niko Price · KO/TKO2022-12-03
Jean-Paul Lebosnoyani no UFC fights on record
Claude HIT
Jean-Paul Lebosnoyani
68%win confidence
KO/TKO 45%
Submission 10%
Decision 45%
Lebosnoyani's extraordinary striking output (9.71 SLPM) and accuracy (78%) presents a nightmare matchup for Rowe, who has lost 3 straight and only lands at 49% accuracy. The 29% striking accuracy differential is massive. While Rowe has an 8-inch reach advantage, his defensive striking (55% defense) ...
GPT HIT
Jean-Paul Lebosnoyani
69%win confidence
KO/TKO 32%
Submission 8%
Decision 60%
Lebosnoyani's early UFC stats indicate extremely high pace and accuracy (9.7 SLpM at 78% with +4.4 differential) combined with better strike defense (64% vs Rowe's 55%). Rowe has the height/reach edge and more UFC experience, but his negative striking differential (-0.69), higher damage intake (4.34...
FINAL: Jordan Leavitt by U-DEC
Leavitt WLWLW 266d out Valle W 112d out last 5
Jordan Leavitt last fought 266 days ago
W
vs Kurt Holobaugh · SUB Anaconda Choke2025-05-31
L
vs Chase Hooper · SUB2023-11-18
W
vs Victor Martinez · KO/TKO2023-02-25
L
vs Paddy Pimblett · SUB2022-07-23
W
vs Trey Ogden · S-DEC2022-04-16
Yadier del Valle last fought 112 days ago
W
vs Isaac Dulgarian · SUB Rear Naked Choke2025-11-01
Claude MISS
Yadier del Valle
65%win confidence
KO/TKO 20%
Submission 25%
Decision 55%
Del Valle's massive striking volume advantage (7.49 vs 2.55 SLPM) and superior defensive metrics give him the edge in this southpaw mirror match. While both are submission threats, del Valle's 66% takedown defense should neutralize Leavitt's wrestling (25% accuracy). Del Valle lands nearly 5 more st...
GPT MISS
Yadier del Valle
74%win confidence
KO/TKO 18%
Submission 27%
Decision 55%
Del Valle's metrics point to a much higher offensive ceiling: he triples Leavitt's output (7.49 vs 2.55 SLpM) with better accuracy (67% vs 61%) while still holding a positive defensive edge in wrestling (66% TD defense vs Leavitt's 25% TD accuracy). Both are submission-oriented, but Del Valle attemp...
FINAL: Carli Judice by U-DEC
Miller WLLW 294d out Judice WWL 217d out last 5
Juliana Miller last fought 294 days ago
W
vs Ivana Petrovic · U-DEC2025-05-03
L
vs Luana Santos · KO/TKO2023-08-12
L
vs Veronica Hardy · U-DEC2023-03-18
W
vs Brogan Walker · KO/TKO2022-08-06
Carli Judice last fought 217 days ago
W
vs Nicolle Caliari · KO/TKO Knee2025-07-19
W
vs Yuneisy Duben · KO/TKO Kick2025-03-15
L
vs Gabriella Fernandes · S-DEC2024-01-13
Claude HIT
Carli Judice
72%win confidence
KO/TKO 15%
Submission 10%
Decision 75%
Judice's massive striking volume advantage (11.23 SLPM vs 3.31) and superior defensive metrics create a nightmare matchup for Miller. While Miller has shown knockout power and submission skills, her 45% striking accuracy and poor 32% defense will be exposed by Judice's high-volume southpaw attack. M...
GPT HIT
Carli Judice
72%win confidence
KO/TKO 32%
Submission 6%
Decision 62%
Judice's pace and volume striking (11.23 SLpM, +1.13 differential, 54% accuracy) combined with solid 70% takedown defense should allow her to keep the fight standing and outwork Miller over three rounds. Miller's path is largely grappling-based, but her 0% takedown defense and negative striking diff...