April 25, 2026
UFC Fight Night: Sterling vs. Zalal
Card complete. GPT 3/13 (23%)
All results
Win confidence is the model's probability that its pick wins: 55 to 64 is a shrug, 65 to 74 is confident, 75 and up is the model betting its reputation.
KO/TKO, Submission, Decision is how the model splits the ways the fight ends, out of 100.
Odds are the sportsbook moneyline with the bookmaker margin removed, so the two percentages sum to 100. When a model's confidence beats the market's implied number, that gap is the value.
Elo is an opponent adjusted rating built from every UFC fight since 1994. Click any Elo number on the card for the full explanation, including what the star means.
FINAL: Aljamain Sterling by U-DEC
Sterling WLWLW 245d out Zalal WWLWW 203d out last 5
Aljamain Sterling last fought 245 days ago
W
vs Brian Ortega · U-DEC2025-08-23
L
vs Movsar Evloev · U-DEC2024-12-07
W
vs Calvin Kattar · U-DEC2024-04-13
L
vs Sean O'Malley · KO/TKO2023-08-19
W
vs Henry Cejudo · S-DEC2023-05-06
Youssef Zalal last fought 203 days ago
W
vs Josh Emmett · SUB Armbar2025-10-04
W
vs Calvin Kattar · U-DEC2025-02-15
L
vs win · 2024-11-02
W
vs Billy Quarantillo · SUB2024-03-23
W
vs Jarno Errens · SUB2024-03-02
GPT HIT
Aljamain Sterling
68%win confidence
KO/TKO 18%
Submission 17%
Decision 65%
Sterling's higher output and striking accuracy, combined with his proven ability to win minutes with volume and clinch/wrestling pressure, should edge the scorecards against Zalal's more measured, defensively sound style. Zalal's superior defensive metrics and submission rate make a finish against h...
FINAL: Joselyne Edwards by U-DEC
Dumont WWWWW 175d out Edwards WWWWL 62d out last 5
Norma Dumont last fought 175 days ago
W
vs Ketlen Vieira · S-DEC2025-11-01
W
vs Germaine de Randamie · U-DEC2024-04-06
W
vs Irene Aldana · U-DEC2024-03-30
W
vs Chelsea Chandler · U-DEC2023-07-15
W
vs Karol Rosa · U-DEC2023-04-22
Joselyne Edwards last fought 62 days ago
W
vs Nora Cornolle · SUB Rear Naked Choke2026-02-21
W
vs Priscila Cachoeira · KO/TKO Punch2025-08-09
W
vs Chelsea Chandler · KO/TKO Punches2025-04-26
W
vs Tamires Vidal · SUB2024-04-27
L
vs Ailin Perez · U-DEC2024-01-01
GPT MISS
Norma Dumont
73%win confidence
KO/TKO 12%
Submission 8%
Decision 80%
Dumont is the more defensively sound and efficient fighter, with superior strike defense (65% vs 49%), lower damage absorbed (2.16 vs 3.19 SApM), and better takedown accuracy and defense. Edwards throws more volume but is easier to hit and more prone to being controlled. Over three rounds, Dumont's ...
FINAL: Rafa Garcia by U-DEC
Garcia WWLWW 224d out Hernandez WWWWL 224d out last 5
Rafa Garcia last fought 224 days ago
W
vs Jared Gordon · KO/TKO Elbows2025-09-13
W
vs Vinc Pichel · U-DEC2025-03-29
L
vs Grant Dawson · KO/TKO2024-04-27
W
vs Clay Guida · U-DEC2023-04-15
W
vs Maheshate · U-DEC2022-12-17
Alexander Hernandez last fought 224 days ago
W
vs Diego Ferreira · KO/TKO Punches2025-09-13
W
vs Chase Hooper · KO/TKO Punch2025-08-16
W
vs Kurt Holobaugh · U-DEC2025-03-15
W
vs Austin Hubbard · S-DEC2024-04-13
L
vs Damon Jackson · S-DEC2024-04-06
GPT HIT
Rafa Garcia
63%win confidence
KO/TKO 18%
Submission 14%
Decision 68%
Garcia's higher takedown volume, superior takedown defense, and more disciplined defensive striking profile position him to neutralize Hernandez's early explosiveness, bank control time, and edge rounds in a competitive but grindy fight. Hernandez's tendency to slow and his negative striking differe...
FINAL: Davey Grant by U-DEC
Grant LWLWW 189d out Martinetti last 5
Davey Grant last fought 189 days ago
L
vs Charles Jourdain · SUB Guillotine Choke2025-10-18
W
vs Ramon Taveras · U-DEC2024-12-14
L
vs Daniel Marcos · S-DEC2023-07-22
W
vs Raphael Assuncao · SUB2023-03-11
W
vs Louis Smolka · KO/TKO2022-05-14
Adrian Luna Martinetti no UFC fights on record
GPT MISS
Adrian Luna Martinetti
68%win confidence
KO/TKO 32%
Submission 8%
Decision 60%
Luna Martinetti's pace and efficiency (11 SLpM at 65% with a +3.2 differential) plus higher takedown output should allow him to outwork the older, more hittable Grant over three rounds. Grant's power and veteran craft make him live for a knockdown or late finish, but Luna's volume, mixed grappling t...
FINAL: Raoni Barcelos by S-DEC
Jackson LWWWW 196d out Barcelos WWWWL 167d out last 5
Montel Jackson last fought 196 days ago
L
vs Deiveson Figueiredo · S-DEC2025-10-11
W
vs Daniel Marcos · U-DEC2025-05-03
W
vs Da'Mon Blackshear · KO/TKO2024-02-03
W
vs Rani Yahya · KO/TKO2023-04-22
W
vs Julio Arce · U-DEC2022-11-12
Raoni Barcelos last fought 167 days ago
W
vs Ricky Simon · U-DEC2025-11-08
W
vs Cody Garbrandt · U-DEC2025-06-14
W
vs Payton Talbott · U-DEC2025-01-18
W
vs Cristian Quinonez · SUB2024-02-24
L
vs Kyler Phillips · U-DEC2023-08-05
GPT MISS
Montel Jackson
72%win confidence
KO/TKO 26%
Submission 9%
Decision 65%
Jackson's superior defensive metrics (1.42 SApM vs 4.79, 63% vs 61% striking defense) and elite efficiency (53% striking accuracy, 71% TD accuracy) match up well against Barcelos' higher but more hittable volume. Barcelos' 85% takedown defense likely limits Jackson's top control and submission threa...
FINAL: Ryan Spann by KO/TKO Punch
Buchecha Spann WLWLL 280d out last 5
Marcus Buchecha no UFC fights on record
Ryan Spann last fought 280 days ago
W
vs Lukasz Brzeski · SUB Guillotine Choke2025-07-19
L
vs Bogdan Guskov · KO/TKO2024-04-27
W
vs Ovince Saint Preux · SUB2024-04-13
L
vs Anthony Smith · S-DEC2023-08-26
L
vs Nikita Krylov · SUB2023-03-11
GPT HIT
Ryan Spann
72%win confidence
KO/TKO 47%
Submission 20%
Decision 33%
Spann brings far greater UFC experience, a much higher striking output, and proven finishing ability both on the feet and via submissions. Buchecha's UFC metrics show low offensive volume, poor takedown success (9%), and 0% takedown defense, which is a major red flag against a long, opportunistic fi...
FINAL: Eric McConico by U-DEC
Vieira LLWWL 160d out McConico LWL 160d out last 5
Rodolfo Vieira last fought 160 days ago
L
vs Bo Nickal · KO/TKO Kick2025-11-15
L
vs Andre Petroski · U-DEC2025-02-15
W
vs Armen Petrosyan · SUB2024-02-10
W
vs Cody Brundage · SUB2023-04-29
L
vs Chris Curtis · U-DEC2022-06-25
Eric McConico last fought 160 days ago
L
vs Baisangur Susurkaev · KO/TKO Punch2025-11-15
W
vs Cody Brundage · S-DEC2025-08-09
L
vs Nursulton Ruziboev · KO/TKO Punch2025-02-22
GPT MISS
Rodolfo Vieira
82%win confidence
KO/TKO 12%
Submission 63%
Decision 25%
Vieira is an elite BJJ specialist with very high takedown volume (4.18 TDs per fight) and strong offensive grappling metrics against established UFC competition. McConico has no proven UFC-level data, offering major uncertainty and suggesting a significant experience and skill gap, especially defens...
FINAL: Jackson McVey by SUB D'Arce Choke
McVey LL 167d out Dumas LLLWW 175d out last 5
Jackson McVey last fought 167 days ago
L
vs Zach Reese · SUB Rear Naked Choke2025-11-08
L
vs Brunno Ferreira · SUB Armbar2025-07-19
Sedriques Dumas last fought 175 days ago
L
vs Donte Johnson · SUB Guillotine Choke2025-11-01
L
vs Michal Oleksiejczuk · KO/TKO Punches2025-04-12
L
vs Nursulton Ruziboev · KO/TKO2024-03-30
W
vs Denis Tiuliulin · U-DEC2024-02-24
W
vs Abu Azaitar · U-DEC2023-10-21
GPT MISS
Sedriques Dumas
69%win confidence
KO/TKO 27%
Submission 13%
Decision 60%
Dumas has established UFC-level experience, measured but efficient striking metrics, and functional wrestling against a debuting McVey with no available UFC stats. McVey is an unknown quantity at this level, while Dumas has shown improving composure, better shot selection, and the ability to mix in ...
FINAL: Michelle Montague by U-DEC
Silva LLLLL 167d out Montague W 210d out last 5
Mayra Bueno Silva last fought 167 days ago
L
vs Jacqueline Cavalcanti · U-DEC2025-11-08
L
vs Jasmine Jasudavicius · U-DEC2025-02-01
L
vs Macy Chiasson · KO/TKO2024-01-27
L
vs Raquel Pennington · U-DEC2024-01-20
L
vs Holly Holm · Overturned2023-07-15
Michelle Montague last fought 210 days ago
W
vs Luana Carolina · U-DEC2025-09-27
GPT MISS
Mayra Bueno Silva
72%win confidence
KO/TKO 13%
Submission 47%
Decision 40%
Bueno Silva brings proven UFC-level finishing grappling and a very high submission rate against established bantamweight opposition, while Montague is an unproven debutant at this level with no available UFC stats; Montague's best regional path is also grappling-based, which likely forces her into B...
FINAL: Cody Durden by U-DEC
Filho WLWWL 196d out Durden LLLWL 48d out last 5
Jafel Filho last fought 196 days ago
W
vs Clayton Carpenter · SUB Kimura2025-10-11
L
vs Allan Nascimento · U-DEC2025-05-31
W
vs Ode Osbourne · SUB2024-03-16
W
vs Daniel Barez · SUB2023-07-22
L
vs Muhammad Mokaev · SUB2023-03-18
Cody Durden last fought 48 days ago
L
vs Nyamjargal Tumendemberel · U-DEC2026-03-07
L
vs Jose Ochoa · KO/TKO Punch2025-06-14
L
vs Joshua Van · U-DEC2024-12-07
W
vs Matt Schnell · SUB2024-03-23
L
vs Bruno Silva · KO/TKO2024-02-10
GPT MISS
Jafel Filho
64%win confidence
KO/TKO 10%
Submission 48%
Decision 42%
Durden's wrestling volume and 4.36 TDs per 15 minutes mean he will proactively engage the grappling, which plays directly into Filho's strongest win condition: an aggressive submission game (2.6 subs per 15) and opportunistic front-chokes/back-takes. Durden's historically strong top control can win ...
FINAL: Francis Marshall by U-DEC
Marshall LWLLW 412d out Brennan last 5
Francis Marshall last fought 412 days ago
L
vs Mairon Santos · S-DEC2025-03-08
W
vs Dennis Buzukja · S-DEC2024-03-16
L
vs Isaac Dulgarian · KO/TKO2023-08-12
L
vs William Gomis · S-DEC2023-04-22
W
vs Marcelo Rojo · KO/TKO2022-12-03
Lucas Brennan no UFC fights on record
GPT MISS
Lucas Brennan
72%win confidence
KO/TKO 12%
Submission 48%
Decision 40%
Marshall's UFC stats show a wrestle-boxing approach with moderate takedown volume (2.68 TDs per fight at 41% accuracy) but only average defensive metrics (53% striking defense, 50% TD defense) and a negative striking differential (-0.47). Brennan, coming in as a highly credentialed submission grappl...
FINAL: Victor Valenzuela by U-DEC
Griffin LLWLW 287d out Valenzuela last 5
Max Griffin last fought 287 days ago
L
vs Chris Curtis · S-DEC2025-07-12
L
vs Michael Chiesa · SUB Rear Naked Choke2024-12-07
W
vs Jeremiah Wells · S-DEC2024-02-10
L
vs Michael Morales · U-DEC2023-07-01
W
vs Tim Means · S-DEC2022-10-29
Victor Valenzuela no UFC fights on record
GPT MISS
Max Griffin
77%win confidence
KO/TKO 28%
Submission 7%
Decision 65%
Griffin has a massive experience edge at the UFC level, far higher output, significantly better defensive metrics, and a proven wrestling game. Valenzuela's numbers (low volume, negative striking differential, 0% recorded defense, no takedown offense or defense shown) suggest limited UFC sample and ...
FINAL: Talita Alencar by U-DEC
Alencar WWLW 175d out Polastri WLWL 196d out last 5
Talita Alencar last fought 175 days ago
W
vs Ariane Carnelossi · SUB Rear Naked Choke2025-11-01
W
vs Vanessa Demopoulos · U-DEC2025-04-05
L
vs Stephanie Luciano · U-DEC2024-03-02
W
vs Rayanne dos Santos · S-DEC2023-12-09
Julia Polastri last fought 196 days ago
W
vs Karolina Kowalkiewicz · KO/TKO Punches2025-10-11
L
vs Loopy Godinez · U-DEC2025-03-29
W
vs Cory McKenna · S-DEC2024-04-27
L
vs Josefine Knutsson · U-DEC2024-01-13
GPT MISS
Julia Polastri
76%win confidence
KO/TKO 18%
Submission 17%
Decision 65%
Polastri has a massive striking edge in both volume and accuracy, nearly doubling Alencar's output while landing at 54% and defending at 58%. Alencar's negative strike differential and high damage intake (4.8 absorbed per minute) against a far more efficient and busier striker is a red flag over thr...