GPTSterling's higher output and striking accuracy, combined with his proven ability to win minutes with volume and clinch/wrestling pressure, should edge the scorecards against Zalal's more measured, defensively sound style. Zalal's superior defensive metrics and submission rate make a finish against him less likely, but he is unlikely to consistently outwork or control Sterling over three to five rounds.
GPTDumont is the more defensively sound and efficient fighter, with superior strike defense (65% vs 49%), lower damage absorbed (2.16 vs 3.19 SApM), and better takedown accuracy and defense. Edwards throws more volume but is easier to hit and more prone to being controlled. Over three rounds, Dumont's cleaner boxing, clinch control, and more reliable wrestling should edge the minutes and limit Edwards' ability to outwork her.
GPTGarcia's higher takedown volume, superior takedown defense, and more disciplined defensive striking profile position him to neutralize Hernandez's early explosiveness, bank control time, and edge rounds in a competitive but grindy fight. Hernandez's tendency to slow and his negative striking differential against pressure wrestlers align poorly with Garcia's durable, pressure-heavy style.
GPTLuna Martinetti's pace and efficiency (11 SLpM at 65% with a +3.2 differential) plus higher takedown output should allow him to outwork the older, more hittable Grant over three rounds. Grant's power and veteran craft make him live for a knockdown or late finish, but Luna's volume, mixed grappling threats, and 100% TD defense profile suggest he controls where the fight takes place and wins minutes more consistently.
GPTJackson's superior defensive metrics (1.42 SApM vs 4.79, 63% vs 61% striking defense) and elite efficiency (53% striking accuracy, 71% TD accuracy) match up well against Barcelos' higher but more hittable volume. Barcelos' 85% takedown defense likely limits Jackson's top control and submission threats, shifting this toward a largely striking-based fight where Jackson's 8-inch reach edge, southpaw stance, and much better strike differential (+1.97 vs +0.43) favor him over three rounds. Barcelos' offensive grappling and finishing instincts keep him live, but durability concerns and defensive leakage against a long, accurate southpaw make a Jackson decision the most probable outcome.
GPTSpann brings far greater UFC experience, a much higher striking output, and proven finishing ability both on the feet and via submissions. Buchecha's UFC metrics show low offensive volume, poor takedown success (9%), and 0% takedown defense, which is a major red flag against a long, opportunistic finisher like Spann. Unless Buchecha can consistently force advantageous grappling exchanges and translate his BJJ credentials into dominant top control, Spann's pace, power, and ability to hurt or club-and-sub opponents should take over, with Buchecha's defensive liabilities making an early or mid-fight stoppage more likely than a drawn-out decision.
GPTVieira is an elite BJJ specialist with very high takedown volume (4.18 TDs per fight) and strong offensive grappling metrics against established UFC competition. McConico has no proven UFC-level data, offering major uncertainty and suggesting a significant experience and skill gap, especially defensively on the ground. Given Vieira's historical path to victory and McConico's lack of demonstrated takedown defense or submission awareness at this level, an early-to-mid fight submission is the likeliest outcome.
GPTDumas has established UFC-level experience, measured but efficient striking metrics, and functional wrestling against a debuting McVey with no available UFC stats. McVey is an unknown quantity at this level, while Dumas has shown improving composure, better shot selection, and the ability to mix in takedowns, which should allow him to control the tempo and bank rounds even if he cannot consistently finish.
GPTBueno Silva brings proven UFC-level finishing grappling and a very high submission rate against established bantamweight opposition, while Montague is an unproven debutant at this level with no available UFC stats; Montague's best regional path is also grappling-based, which likely forces her into Bueno Silva's strongest domain where Silva's experience, opportunistic front chokes, and comfort in chaotic scrambles should create multiple submission opportunities over three rounds.
GPTDurden's wrestling volume and 4.36 TDs per 15 minutes mean he will proactively engage the grappling, which plays directly into Filho's strongest win condition: an aggressive submission game (2.6 subs per 15) and opportunistic front-chokes/back-takes. Durden's historically strong top control can win minutes, but his submission defense has been penetrable against high-level grapplers, and Filho is significantly more dangerous off his back than Durden is on his. On the feet Durden is slightly busier and more accurate, but not enough of a knockout threat to deter Filho from exchanging and creating scrambles. Over three rounds, the repeated wrestling entries and scrambles favor Filho finding a neck or back at some point, especially as Durden's pace taxes his gas tank.
GPTMarshall's UFC stats show a wrestle-boxing approach with moderate takedown volume (2.68 TDs per fight at 41% accuracy) but only average defensive metrics (53% striking defense, 50% TD defense) and a negative striking differential (-0.47). Brennan, coming in as a highly credentialed submission grappler from Bellator, is most dangerous exactly where Marshall tends to operate, shooting and grappling-heavy sequences. Marshall's willingness to wrestle and his defensive lapses create high-percentage back-take and front-headlock opportunities for Brennan, who historically excels at punishing shots with chokes and controlling scrambles. Over 3 rounds, Marshall's volume and cardio give him some decision equity, but the most likely script is Marshall initiating wrestling, Brennan creating scrambles, taking the back, and finishing a choke.
GPTGriffin has a massive experience edge at the UFC level, far higher output, significantly better defensive metrics, and a proven wrestling game. Valenzuela's numbers (low volume, negative striking differential, 0% recorded defense, no takedown offense or defense shown) suggest limited UFC sample and clear vulnerabilities that a well-rounded veteran like Griffin can exploit. However, Griffin's historical tendency to go to decisions and manage risk rather than overextend makes a points win more likely than a finish.
GPTPolastri has a massive striking edge in both volume and accuracy, nearly doubling Alencar's output while landing at 54% and defending at 58%. Alencar's negative strike differential and high damage intake (4.8 absorbed per minute) against a far more efficient and busier striker is a red flag over three rounds. While Alencar is an elite grappler by background, her UFC takedown numbers (13% accuracy, 2 TDs per fight, 50% TD defense) indicate difficulty translating that game to MMA. In contrast, Polastri's 80% takedown accuracy and 0.6 subs per fight suggest she can both dictate where the grappling happens and threaten from top if it goes there. Given Polastri's output, accuracy, and superior MMA grappling metrics, she is favored to win a high-volume decision, with some chance of a late finish if Alencar fades under pressure.
0