May 30, 2026
UFC Fight Night: Song vs. Figueiredo
Card complete. GPT 4/7 (57%)
All results
Win confidence is the model's probability that its pick wins: 55 to 64 is a shrug, 65 to 74 is confident, 75 and up is the model betting its reputation.
KO/TKO, Submission, Decision is how the model splits the ways the fight ends, out of 100.
Odds are the sportsbook moneyline with the bookmaker margin removed, so the two percentages sum to 100. When a model's confidence beats the market's implied number, that gap is the value.
Elo is an opponent adjusted rating built from every UFC fight since 1994. Click any Elo number on the card for the full explanation, including what the star means.
FINAL: Song Yadong by SUB Guillotine Choke
Yadong LWLWW 125d out Figueiredo LWLLW 125d out last 5
Song Yadong last fought 125 days ago
L
vs Sean O'Malley · U-DEC2026-01-24
W
vs Henry Cejudo · U-DEC2025-02-22
L
vs Petr Yan · U-DEC2024-03-09
W
vs Chris Gutierrez · U-DEC2023-12-09
W
vs Ricky Simon · KO/TKO2023-04-29
Deiveson Figueiredo last fought 125 days ago
L
vs Umar Nurmagomedov · U-DEC2026-01-24
W
vs Montel Jackson · S-DEC2025-10-11
L
vs Cory Sandhagen · KO/TKO2025-05-03
L
vs Petr Yan · 2024-11-23
W
vs Cody Garbrandt · SUB2024-04-13
GPT HIT
Song Yadong
68%win confidence
KO/TKO 32%
Submission 6%
Decision 62%
At bantamweight, Song's size, youth, and pace advantage combined with superior striking differential (4.49 SLpM vs 3.01, +0.53 vs -0.38) and better defensive metrics (55% vs 51% striking defense, 72% vs 58% TD defense) should allow him to keep the fight largely standing and outwork Figueiredo over t...
FINAL: Alonzo Menifield by KO/TKO Punch
Mingyang LWWW 280d out Menifield LWWLW 188d out last 5
Zhang Mingyang last fought 280 days ago
L
vs Johnny Walker · KO/TKO Punches2025-08-23
W
vs Anthony Smith · KO/TKO Elbows2025-04-26
W
vs Ozzy Diaz · 2024-11-23
W
vs Brendson Ribeiro · KO/TKO2024-02-17
Alonzo Menifield last fought 188 days ago
L
vs Volkan Oezdemir · KO/TKO Punches2025-11-22
W
vs Oumar Sy · U-DEC2025-06-14
W
vs Julius Walker · S-DEC2025-02-22
L
vs Azamat Murzakanov · KO/TKO2024-02-24
W
vs Dustin Jacoby · U-DEC2023-12-16
GPT MISS
Zhang Mingyang
63%win confidence
KO/TKO 63%
Submission 5%
Decision 32%
Zhang's early-round power, pace (9.23 SLpM at 57% accuracy), and pressure striking are likely to overwhelm Menifield's lower-volume, more measured approach. Menifield's best path is mixing in takedowns (0.63 per fight at 33% accuracy) and clinch control, but his tendency to slow and get hittable lat...
FINAL: Sergei Pavlovich by KO/TKO Punch
Pavlovich WLLWW 482d out Teixeira WLW 118d out last 5
Sergei Pavlovich last fought 482 days ago, long layoff
W
vs Jairzinho Rozenstruik · U-DEC2025-02-01
L
vs Alexander Volkov · U-DEC2024-01-20
L
vs Tom Aspinall · KO/TKO2023-11-11
W
vs Curtis Blaydes · KO/TKO2023-04-22
W
vs Tai Tuivasa · KO/TKO2022-12-03
Tallison Teixeira last fought 118 days ago
W
vs Tai Tuivasa · U-DEC2026-01-31
L
vs Derrick Lewis · KO/TKO Punches2025-07-12
W
vs Justin Tafa · KO/TKO Elbow2025-02-08
GPT HIT
Sergei Pavlovich
72%win confidence
KO/TKO 68%
Submission 2%
Decision 30%
Despite Teixeira's inflated offensive metrics over a tiny sample, Pavlovich is the proven UFC-level heavyweight with elite early power, better-tested durability, and superior strength of schedule. Teixeira's extremely high SLpM and SApM suggest an aggressive but very hittable style that is dangerous...
FINAL: Kai Asakura by KO/TKO Punch
Asakura LL 287d out Smotherman LW 392d out last 5
Kai Asakura last fought 287 days ago
L
vs Tim Elliott · SUB Guillotine Choke2025-08-16
L
vs Alexandre Pantoja · SUB Rear Naked Choke2024-12-07
Cameron Smotherman last fought 392 days ago
L
vs Serhiy Sidey · U-DEC2025-05-03
W
vs Jake Hadley · U-DEC2024-04-27
GPT HIT
Kai Asakura
72%win confidence
KO/TKO 58%
Submission 4%
Decision 38%
Despite Smotherman's higher UFC striking volume and better defensive metrics, Asakura is an elite, proven finisher at the highest regional level with significantly more high-level experience and power. Smotherman's pressure and willingness to exchange create the kind of firefight where Asakura's cou...
Salikhov LLWLL 202d out Matthews LWWWL 245d out last 5
Muslim Salikhov last fought 202 days ago
L
vs Uros Medic · KO/TKO Punch2025-11-08
L
vs Song Kenan · 2024-11-23
W
vs Santiago Ponzinibbio · S-DEC2024-02-03
L
vs Randy Brown · KO/TKO2024-02-03
L
vs Nicolas Dalby · U-DEC2023-06-17
Jake Matthews last fought 245 days ago
L
vs Neil Magny · SUB D'Arce Choke2025-09-27
W
vs Chidi Njokuani · SUB Rear Naked Choke2025-07-12
W
vs Francisco Prado · U-DEC2025-02-08
W
vs Phil Rowe · U-DEC2024-01-01
L
vs Michael Morales · U-DEC2023-11-18
GPT
Jake Matthews
68%win confidence
KO/TKO 24%
Submission 18%
Decision 58%
Matthews is the younger, more durable athlete at this stage and has a more complete MMA game. His slightly higher output, better strike differential, and stronger offensive wrestling/submission threat give him more paths to win over three rounds. Salikhov remains dangerous with counter striking and ...
Perez WLWLL 125d out Sumudaerji WWWLL 83d out last 5
Alex Perez last fought 125 days ago
W
vs Charles Johnson · KO/TKO Punch2026-01-24
L
vs Asu Almabayev · SUB Guillotine Choke2025-11-22
W
vs Matheus Nicolau · KO/TKO2024-04-27
L
vs Muhammad Mokaev · U-DEC2024-03-02
L
vs Tatsuro Taira · KO/TKO2024-01-13
Sumudaerji last fought 83 days ago
W
vs Jesus Aguilar · U-DEC2026-03-07
W
vs Kevin Borjas · U-DEC2025-08-23
W
vs Mitch Raposo · S-DEC2025-04-12
L
vs Charles Johnson · U-DEC2024-04-27
L
vs Tim Elliott · SUB2023-12-09
GPT
Alex Perez
69%win confidence
KO/TKO 22%
Submission 18%
Decision 60%
Perez is the more proven, well-rounded fighter with a strong wrestling base (2.04 TD avg, 46% TD accuracy, 77% TD defense) and solid defensive striking (58% StrDef, positive strike differential). Sumudaerji has the cleaner, longer-range southpaw striking (higher SLpM, 53% accuracy, 7-inch reach edge...
GPT
Luis Felipe Dias
58%win confidence
KO/TKO 18%
Submission 27%
Decision 55%
With no UFC sample or clear statistical edge available, the lean is toward Dias based on the typical profile of Brazilian regional prospects-more developed grappling/wrestling and submission threats-against a debuting East Asian striker/grappler hybrid in front of a home-region crowd. In low-informa...
GPT
Ding Meng
63%win confidence
KO/TKO 23%
Submission 4%
Decision 73%
Both men show negative striking differentials and limited grappling, but Meng is more efficient everywhere: better strike accuracy (50% vs 43%), slightly lower output but far lower damage absorbed (3.87 vs 5.79 SApM), and a much smaller negative differential (-0.47 vs -2.34). Henrique's reach edge i...
FINAL: Cody Haddon by KO/TKO Knee
Aoriqileng WLLWL 224d out Haddon W 763d out last 5
Aoriqileng last fought 224 days ago
W
vs Cody Gibson · KO/TKO Punch2025-10-18
L
vs Raul Rosas Jr. · U-DEC2024-03-30
L
vs Daniel Marcos · CNC2024-02-10
W
vs Johnny Munoz · U-DEC2023-10-07
L
vs Aiemann Zahabi · KO/TKO2023-06-10
Cody Haddon last fought 763 days ago, long layoff
W
vs Dan Argueta · U-DEC2024-04-27
GPT HIT
Cody Haddon
74%win confidence
KO/TKO 32%
Submission 18%
Decision 50%
Haddon profiles as the much more efficient, higher-volume, and better-defending all-rounder. His SLpM is roughly double with superior accuracy and a massive positive strike differential, while Aoriqileng is negative in that metric and absorbs more than he lands. Haddon also owns a strong takedown-de...
Tsuruya LW 447d out Aguilar LWLWW 83d out last 5
Rei Tsuruya last fought 447 days ago
L
vs Joshua Van · U-DEC2025-03-08
W
vs Carlos Hernandez · U-DEC2024-01-27
Jesus Aguilar last fought 83 days ago
L
vs Sumudaerji · U-DEC2026-03-07
W
vs Luis Gurule · U-DEC2025-09-13
L
vs Rafael Estevam · U-DEC2025-02-15
W
vs Stewart Nicoll · SUB2024-03-09
W
vs Mateus Mendonca · S-DEC2024-02-24
GPT
Rei Tsuruya
72%win confidence
KO/TKO 12%
Submission 26%
Decision 62%
Tsuruya's much higher takedown volume and efficiency (5.45 TDs per fight at 50% vs Aguilar's 1.75 at 33%) projects sustained top-time and control, while his superior offensive grappling output (2.5 subs per fight) forces Aguilar to defend rather than attack. Aguilar's better strike defense and 6-inc...
FINAL: Angela Hill by U-DEC
Hill LLWLW 195d out Jingnan last 5
Angela Hill last fought 195 days ago
L
vs Fatima Kline · U-DEC2025-11-15
L
vs Iasmin Lucindo · U-DEC2025-08-09
W
vs Ketlen Souza · S-DEC2025-02-15
L
vs Tabatha Ricci · U-DEC2024-03-16
W
vs Luana Pinheiro · SUB2023-12-23
Xiong Jingnan no UFC fights on record
GPT MISS
Xiong Jingnan
68%win confidence
KO/TKO 22%
Submission 3%
Decision 75%
Hill is a high-volume but low-finishing striker with a nearly even striking differential and modest wrestling. Xiong is an elite, defensively sound power-boxer in MMA with better shot selection, heavier hands, and strong takedown defense from strawweight title-level competition. Over three rounds in...
Kangjie L 552d out Taveras LLW 245d out last 5
Zhu Kangjie last fought 552 days ago, long layoff
L
vs Xie Bin · 2024-11-23
Ramon Taveras last fought 245 days ago
L
vs Jack Jenkins · U-DEC2025-09-27
L
vs Davey Grant · U-DEC2024-12-14
W
vs Serhiy Sidey · S-DEC2024-01-20
GPT
Ramon Taveras
63%win confidence
KO/TKO 28%
Submission 7%
Decision 65%
Taveras brings higher offensive volume and proven durability, while Zhu's numbers are inflated by a small sample and a low-paced style. Taveras' pressure and output should win rounds despite a negative strike differential, as Zhu's low SLpM and modest wrestling volume make it unlikely he can consist...
FINAL: Jaqueline Amorim by SUB Armbar
Lookboonmee LWWWW 245d out Amorim LWWWW 217d out last 5
Loma Lookboonmee last fought 245 days ago
L
vs Alexia Thainara · U-DEC2025-09-27
W
vs Istela Nunes · U-DEC2025-04-05
W
vs Bruna Brasil · U-DEC2024-02-10
W
vs Elise Reed · SUB2023-02-11
W
vs Denise Gomes · U-DEC2022-09-17
Jaqueline Amorim last fought 217 days ago
L
vs Mizuki · U-DEC2025-10-25
W
vs Polyana Viana · SUB Rear Naked Choke2025-04-26
W
vs Vanessa Demopoulos · SUB2024-03-23
W
vs Cory McKenna · SUB2024-03-16
W
vs Montserrat Conejo Ruiz · KO/TKO2023-08-12
GPT MISS
Loma Lookboonmee
69%win confidence
KO/TKO 12%
Submission 8%
Decision 80%
Lookboonmee's superior defensive wrestling, clinch balance, and high-percentage Muay Thai striking should allow her to survive Amorim's early submission threats, gradually take over with volume and body/leg attacks, and bank rounds as Amorim's grappling explosiveness fades after the first. Amorim is...