December 13, 2025
UFC Fight Night: Royval vs. Kape
Card complete. GPT 5/9 (56%) · Claude 6/9 (67%)
All results
Both models agree 9 of 12 fights
Steven Asplund over Sean Sharaf
Both call KO/TKO
Claude 78%
GPT 78%
GPT 78%
Yaroslav Amosov over Neil Magny
Both call Decision
Claude 72%
GPT 74%
GPT 74%
Kennedy Nzechukwu over Marcus Buchecha
Both call KO/TKO
Claude 72%
GPT 71%
GPT 71%
Luana Santos over Melissa Croden
Both call Decision
Claude 68%
GPT 74%
GPT 74%
Morgan Charriere over Melquizael Costa
Claude 68%
GPT 69%
GPT 69%
Tereza Bleda over Jamey-Lyn Horth
Both call Decision
Claude 64%
GPT 68%
GPT 68%
Cesar Almeida over Cezary Oleksiejczuk
Both call KO/TKO
Claude 62%
GPT 68%
GPT 68%
Manel Kape over Brandon Royval
Both call Decision
Claude 65%
GPT 63%
GPT 63%
Guilherme Pat over Allen Frye Jr.
Claude 58%
GPT 60%
GPT 60%
Double locks: both at 75% or higher 1 fight
Steven Asplund over Sean Sharaf
Both call KO/TKO
Claude 78%
GPT 78%
GPT 78%
Build your own list 9 match
Steven Asplund over Sean Sharaf
Both call KO/TKO
Claude 78%
GPT 78%
GPT 78%
Yaroslav Amosov over Neil Magny
Both call Decision
Claude 72%
GPT 74%
GPT 74%
Kennedy Nzechukwu over Marcus Buchecha
Both call KO/TKO
Claude 72%
GPT 71%
GPT 71%
Luana Santos over Melissa Croden
Both call Decision
Claude 68%
GPT 74%
GPT 74%
Morgan Charriere over Melquizael Costa
Claude 68%
GPT 69%
GPT 69%
Tereza Bleda over Jamey-Lyn Horth
Both call Decision
Claude 64%
GPT 68%
GPT 68%
Cesar Almeida over Cezary Oleksiejczuk
Both call KO/TKO
Claude 62%
GPT 68%
GPT 68%
Manel Kape over Brandon Royval
Both call Decision
Claude 65%
GPT 63%
GPT 63%
Guilherme Pat over Allen Frye Jr.
Claude 58%
GPT 60%
GPT 60%
Win confidence is the model's probability that its pick wins: 55 to 64 is a shrug, 65 to 74 is confident, 75 and up is the model betting its reputation.
KO/TKO, Submission, Decision is how the model splits the ways the fight ends, out of 100.
Odds are the sportsbook moneyline with the bookmaker margin removed, so the two percentages sum to 100. When a model's confidence beats the market's implied number, that gap is the value.
Elo is an opponent adjusted rating built from every UFC fight since 1994. Click any Elo number on the card for the full explanation, including what the star means.
FINAL: Manel Kape by KO/TKO Punches
Royval LWWWL 168d out Kape WWLWW 287d out last 5
Brandon Royval last fought 168 days ago
L
vs Joshua Van · U-DEC2025-06-28
W
vs Tatsuro Taira · S-DEC2024-04-27
W
vs Tatsuro Taira · S-DEC2024-04-20
W
vs Brandon Moreno · S-DEC2024-02-24
L
vs Alexandre Pantoja · U-DEC2023-12-16
Manel Kape last fought 287 days ago
W
vs Asu Almabayev · KO/TKO Punches2025-03-01
W
vs Bruno Silva · KO/TKO Punches2024-12-14
L
vs Muhammad Mokaev · U-DEC2024-02-17
W
vs Felipe dos Santos · U-DEC2023-09-09
W
vs David Dvorak · U-DEC2022-12-17
Claude HIT
Manel Kape
65%win confidence
KO/TKO 30%
Submission 15%
Decision 55%
Kape's recent finishing streak (2 straight TKOs) and superior striking defense (59% vs 47%) give him the edge. While Royval has better grappling metrics, Kape's improved takedown defense (73%) and power striking advantage should control the fight. Both are southpaws, neutralizing stance advantages. ...
GPT HIT
Manel Kape
63%win confidence
KO/TKO 32%
Submission 18%
Decision 50%
Kape's superior striking accuracy, better defensive metrics, and strong takedown defense should allow him to control the stand-up over three rounds, limiting Royval's scrambling and submission opportunities despite Royval's higher grappling threat and chaos-based style.
FINAL: Kevin Vallejos by KO/TKO Spinning Back Fist
Chikadze LLWLW 231d out Vallejos W 273d out last 5
Giga Chikadze last fought 231 days ago
L
vs David Onama · U-DEC2025-04-26
L
vs Arnold Allen · U-DEC2024-02-17
W
vs Alex Caceres · U-DEC2023-08-26
L
vs Calvin Kattar · U-DEC2022-01-15
W
vs Edson Barboza · KO/TKO2021-08-28
Kevin Vallejos last fought 273 days ago
W
vs SeungWoo Choi · KO/TKO Punches2025-03-15
Claude HIT
Kevin Vallejos
58%win confidence
KO/TKO 25%
Submission 10%
Decision 65%
Major upset potential. Vallejos brings a 16-1 record with 4 straight finishes, while Chikadze has lost 3 of 5. Vallejos' superior volume (6.85 SLPM vs 3.92) and better striking accuracy (51% vs 42%) could overwhelm the declining Chikadze. The 6-inch reach disadvantage is concerning, but Vallejos' sw...
GPT MISS
Giga Chikadze
69%win confidence
KO/TKO 32%
Submission 3%
Decision 65%
Chikadze's technical kickboxing, range management, and 6-inch reach edge should let him control distance and scoring against Vallejos' higher-volume but more hittable style. Vallejos' 6.85 SLpM with 51% accuracy is impressive, but his 5.81 SApM and 55% defense suggest he will be very available for G...
FINAL: Cezary Oleksiejczuk by U-DEC
Almeida WWWL 336d out Oleksiejczuk last 5
Cesar Almeida last fought 336 days ago
W
vs Abdul Razak Alhassan · KO/TKO Punch2025-01-11
W
vs Ihor Potieria · U-DEC2024-04-13
W
vs Dylan Budka · KO/TKO2024-04-06
L
vs Roman Kopylov · S-DEC2024-01-01
Cezary Oleksiejczuk no UFC fights on record
Claude MISS
Cesar Almeida
62%win confidence
KO/TKO 45%
Submission 10%
Decision 45%
Limited data on Oleksiejczuk, but Almeida's kickboxing pedigree and 3-fight win streak give him momentum. His 57% striking accuracy and orthodox vs southpaw matchup favor his counter-striking style. Almeida's experience edge and recent form trajectory suggest he can handle the unknown quantity of Ol...
GPT MISS
Cesar Almeida
68%win confidence
KO/TKO 58%
Submission 5%
Decision 37%
Despite the skewed early stats for Oleksiejczuk, Almeida is the far more proven, high-level striker with elite kickboxing credentials, better composure over three rounds, and sufficient takedown defense to keep this largely standing. Oleksiejczuk's inflated numbers come from a tiny sample size and a...
FINAL: Melquizael Costa by KO/TKO Kick
Costa WWWWL 210d out Charriere WLLWW 154d out last 5
Melquizael Costa last fought 210 days ago
W
vs Julian Erosa · U-DEC2025-05-17
W
vs Christian Rodriguez · U-DEC2025-03-29
W
vs Andre Fili · SUB Guillotine Choke2025-02-22
W
vs Shayilan Nuerdanbieke · SUB2024-01-13
L
vs Steve Garcia · KO/TKO2023-12-09
Morgan Charriere last fought 154 days ago
W
vs Nate Landwehr · KO/TKO Punch2025-07-12
L
vs Nathaniel Wood · U-DEC2025-03-22
L
vs Chepe Mariscal · S-DEC2024-04-06
W
vs Gabriel Miranda · KO/TKO2024-04-06
W
vs Manolo Zecchini · KO/TKO2023-09-02
Claude MISS
Morgan Charriere
68%win confidence
KO/TKO 48%
Submission 15%
Decision 37%
Charriere's superior striking volume (3.87 SLPM vs 3.46) and knockout power (75% recent KO rate) create significant advantages against Costa's vulnerable striking defense (58%). Costa's frequent weight class changes (4 in recent fights) and history of being finished by strikes suggest compromised du...
GPT MISS
Morgan Charriere
69%win confidence
KO/TKO 22%
Submission 13%
Decision 65%
Charriere appears to be the more efficient and complete fighter at this stage: he has higher striking accuracy and volume, a positive but controlled strike differential, and significantly better takedown accuracy and takedown defense. Costa's numbers suggest he is hittable in wrestling exchanges (52...
Nzechukwu LWLLW 154d out Buchecha last 5
Kennedy Nzechukwu last fought 154 days ago
L
vs Valter Walker · SUB Heel Hook2025-07-12
W
vs Lukasz Brzeski · KO/TKO Punch2024-12-07
L
vs Ovince Saint Preux · S-DEC2024-03-16
L
vs Dustin Jacoby · KO/TKO2023-08-05
W
vs Devin Clark · SUB2023-05-06
Marcus Buchecha no UFC fights on record
Claude
Kennedy Nzechukwu
72%win confidence
KO/TKO 65%
Submission 10%
Decision 25%
Nzechukwu's significant advantages in striking volume (5.34 vs 1.6 SLPM), accuracy (47% vs 40%), and reach (83" vs 77") should overwhelm Buchecha's limited MMA striking experience. Buchecha's elite BJJ background is negated by his abysmal 9% takedown accuracy and Nzechukwu's 80% TDD. The 6-inch reac...
GPT
Kennedy Nzechukwu
71%win confidence
KO/TKO 55%
Submission 4%
Decision 41%
Nzechukwu's far higher striking volume and efficiency, combined with a 6-inch reach advantage and 80% takedown defense, pose a serious problem for Buchecha's wrestling-centric approach. Buchecha's 9% takedown accuracy and low striking output suggest he will struggle to consistently get this to the m...
Lemos LWWLL 91d out Robertson WLWWL 224d out last 5
Amanda Lemos last fought 91 days ago
L
vs Tatiana Suarez · U-DEC2025-09-13
W
vs Iasmin Lucindo · U-DEC2025-03-08
W
vs Mackenzie Dern · U-DEC2024-02-17
L
vs Virna Jandiroba · SUB2024-02-10
L
vs Zhang Weili · U-DEC2023-08-19
Gillian Robertson last fought 224 days ago
W
vs Marina Rodriguez · KO/TKO Punches2025-05-03
L
vs win · 2024-11-09
W
vs Michelle Waterson-Gomez · U-DEC2024-01-27
W
vs Polyana Viana · KO/TKO2024-01-20
L
vs Tabatha Ricci · U-DEC2023-06-24
Claude
Gillian Robertson
64%win confidence
KO/TKO 20%
Submission 45%
Decision 35%
Robertson's superior grappling metrics (2.48 TDAvg vs 0.9, 1.1 SubAvg vs 0.8) and Lemos' vulnerability to submissions (2 sub losses in last 5) create a clear path to victory. While Lemos has better striking accuracy (54% vs 48%), Robertson's improved striking defense (56% vs 44%) and consistent take...
GPT
Amanda Lemos
69%win confidence
KO/TKO 47%
Submission 8%
Decision 45%
Lemos is the far more dangerous and explosive striker with superior power and 54% accuracy, while Robertson is hittable on the feet and heavily reliant on volume takedowns against a physically stronger opponent with solid 63% offensive wrestling and serviceable 61% takedown defense. Robertson's path...
Brito LLWWW 252d out Baghdasaryan LWLWW 294d out last 5
Joanderson Brito last fought 252 days ago
L
vs Pat Sabatini · U-DEC2025-04-05
L
vs William Gomis · S-DEC2024-04-06
W
vs Jack Shore · KO/TKO2023-12-09
W
vs Jonathan Pearce · SUB2023-11-18
W
vs Westin Wilson · KO/TKO2023-07-01
Melsik Baghdasaryan last fought 294 days ago
L
vs Jean Silva · KO/TKO Punch2025-02-22
W
vs Tucker Lutz · U-DEC2023-07-15
L
vs Josh Culibao · SUB2023-02-11
W
vs Bruno Souza · U-DEC2021-11-06
W
vs Collin Anglin · KO/TKO2021-07-31
Claude
Melsik Baghdasaryan
58%win confidence
KO/TKO 25%
Submission 15%
Decision 60%
Baghdasaryan's superior striking metrics (5.28 SLPM vs 3.02, 61% accuracy vs 50%) and defensive striking (58% vs 44%) should allow him to outpoint Brito over three rounds. While Brito's wrestling (3.08 TDAvg) poses a threat, both fighters show identical 72% TDD, and Baghdasaryan's southpaw stance cr...
GPT
Joanderson Brito
69%win confidence
KO/TKO 28%
Submission 37%
Decision 35%
Brito's aggressive wrestling and high-percentage takedowns (3.08 TDs per fight at 68% accuracy) directly target Baghdasaryan's striking-centric style and lack of offensive grappling. While Melsik is the cleaner, higher-volume striker with superior striking defense and accuracy, he does his best work...
FINAL: Yaroslav Amosov by SUB Anaconda Choke
Magny WLWLW 77d out Amosov last 5
Neil Magny last fought 77 days ago
W
vs Jake Matthews · SUB D'Arce Choke2025-09-27
L
vs Michael Morales · KO/TKO2024-03-16
W
vs Mike Malott · KO/TKO2024-01-20
L
vs Ian Machado Garry · U-DEC2023-08-19
W
vs Phil Rowe · S-DEC2023-06-24
Yaroslav Amosov no UFC fights on record
Claude HIT
Yaroslav Amosov
72%win confidence
KO/TKO 25%
Submission 15%
Decision 60%
While Amosov lacks UFC data, he enters as an undefeated Bellator champion (27-0) with elite wrestling credentials. Magny's recent form shows vulnerability to power strikers (KO losses in 2 of last 3), and his 54% takedown defense against 2.15 takedowns per fight suggests defensive wrestling issues. ...
GPT HIT
Yaroslav Amosov
74%win confidence
KO/TKO 14%
Submission 23%
Decision 63%
Amosov's elite wrestling, top control, and physical strength should consistently beat Magny's clinch-and-volume game over three rounds. Magny's length, cardio, and veteran savvy make him durable and hard to finish, but his historically average takedown defense and tendency to be controlled by strong...
FINAL: Steven Asplund by KO/TKO Punches
Sharaf L 595d out Asplund last 5
Sean Sharaf last fought 595 days ago, long layoff
L
vs Junior Tafa · KO/TKO2024-04-27
Steven Asplund no UFC fights on record
Claude HIT
Steven Asplund
78%win confidence
KO/TKO 75%
Submission 5%
Decision 20%
Asplund shows massive striking advantages with 41.25 strikes landed per minute vs Sharaf's 7.31, plus superior accuracy (64% vs 44%) and defense (71% vs 44%). Sharaf's recent form shows consecutive first-round KO losses, indicating serious durability issues. The striking differential of +33.75 for A...
GPT HIT
Steven Asplund
78%win confidence
KO/TKO 62%
Submission 3%
Decision 35%
Asplund's striking metrics (41.25 SLpM at 64% with 71% defense) are clearly inflated by tiny sample size but still indicate a massive efficiency and volume edge over Sharaf, who absorbs far more than he lands (7.31 SLpM vs 9.79 SApM, 44% defense) and has almost no demonstrated takedown success (12% ...
FINAL: Luana Santos by U-DEC
Croden W 56d out Santos WLWWW 210d out last 5
Melissa Croden last fought 56 days ago
W
vs Tainara Lisboa · KO/TKO Punches2025-10-18
Luana Santos last fought 210 days ago
W
vs Tainara Lisboa · SUB Keylock2025-05-17
L
vs Casey O'Neill · U-DEC2024-03-09
W
vs Mariya Agapova · SUB2024-02-03
W
vs Stephanie Egger · U-DEC2023-12-09
W
vs Juliana Miller · KO/TKO2023-08-12
Claude HIT
Luana Santos
68%win confidence
KO/TKO 20%
Submission 35%
Decision 45%
Santos brings proven UFC experience with a 66.7% win rate and complete statistical profile, while Croden debuts with no available data. Santos' well-rounded game includes 4.28 SLPM, 80% takedown defense, and 1.2 submissions per fight, showing multiple paths to victory. Her recent submission wins dem...
GPT HIT
Luana Santos
74%win confidence
KO/TKO 22%
Submission 18%
Decision 60%
Santos brings proven UFC metrics and a well-rounded game-high striking accuracy (51%), solid defensive numbers (61% striking defense, 80% takedown defense), and consistent offensive wrestling (1.62 TDs per fight, 1.2 subs per fight). Croden enters with no UFC sample and unknown efficiency at this le...
FINAL: Guilherme Pat by U-DEC
Claude HIT
Guilherme Pat
58%win confidence
KO/TKO 35%
Submission 15%
Decision 50%
This heavyweight debut matchup lacks UFC data for both fighters, making it highly unpredictable. Pat has a 4-year age advantage and likely more regional experience. Heavyweight debuts often favor more seasoned competitors who can manage the pace and avoid early mistakes. Both share orthodox stances,...
GPT HIT
Guilherme Pat
60%win confidence
KO/TKO 48%
Submission 7%
Decision 45%
With no UFC stat sample for either man, the lean comes from regional tape: Pat shows more polished, layered striking, better shot selection in exchanges, and cleaner defensive responsibility, while Frye Jr. is more hittable and tends to brawl in the pocket. Over three rounds, Pat's sharper boxing an...
FINAL: Jamey-Lyn Horth by KO/TKO Punches
Horth WLLLW 182d out Bleda WL 910d out last 5
Jamey-Lyn Horth last fought 182 days ago
W
vs Vanessa Demopoulos · U-DEC2025-06-14
L
vs Miranda Maverick · U-DEC2024-12-14
L
vs win · 2024-11-02
L
vs Veronica Hardy · S-DEC2023-12-02
W
vs Hailey Cowan · U-DEC2023-04-29
Tereza Bleda last fought 910 days ago, long layoff
W
vs Gabriella Fernandes · U-DEC2023-06-17
L
vs Natalia Silva · KO/TKO2022-11-19
Claude MISS
Tereza Bleda
64%win confidence
KO/TKO 20%
Submission 25%
Decision 55%
Bleda holds significant physical advantages with 2 inches in height and 5 inches in reach, crucial at flyweight. Her superior grappling metrics (1.81 takedowns per fight vs Horth's 1.0) and submission threat (0.7 sub attempts per fight) create multiple paths to victory. Horth's recent 2-fight losing...
GPT MISS
Tereza Bleda
68%win confidence
KO/TKO 15%
Submission 20%
Decision 65%
Bleda's higher takedown volume, strong 83% takedown defense, and superior strike differential suggest she can dictate where the fight takes place. Horth is the cleaner, more accurate striker, but Bleda's wrestling pace and submission threat should allow her to bank control-heavy rounds even if excha...