October 11, 2025
UFC Fight Night: Oliveira vs. Gamrot
Card complete. GPT 2/11 (18%) · Claude 4/11 (36%)
All results
Both models agree 9 of 13 fights
Ricardo Ramos over Kaan Ofli
Both call Submission
Claude 78%
GPT 78%
GPT 78%
Mario Pinto over Jhonata Diniz
Both call KO/TKO
Claude 72%
GPT 81%
GPT 81%
Montel Jackson over Deiveson Figueiredo
Claude 72%
GPT 74%
GPT 74%
Clayton Carpenter over Jafel Filho
Claude 72%
GPT 72%
GPT 72%
Irina Alekseeva over Bia Mesquita
Claude 72%
GPT 72%
GPT 72%
Stewart Nicoll over Lucas Rocha
Both call Decision
Claude 65%
GPT 78%
GPT 78%
Valter Walker over Mohammed Usman
Claude 72%
GPT 67%
GPT 67%
Michael Aswell over Lucas Almeida
Both call Decision
Claude 65%
GPT 70%
GPT 70%
Thomas Petersen over Vitor Petrino
Both call Decision
Claude 68%
GPT 62%
GPT 62%
Double locks: both at 75% or higher 1 fight
Ricardo Ramos over Kaan Ofli
Both call Submission
Claude 78%
GPT 78%
GPT 78%
Build your own list 9 match
Ricardo Ramos over Kaan Ofli
Both call Submission
Claude 78%
GPT 78%
GPT 78%
Mario Pinto over Jhonata Diniz
Both call KO/TKO
Claude 72%
GPT 81%
GPT 81%
Montel Jackson over Deiveson Figueiredo
Claude 72%
GPT 74%
GPT 74%
Clayton Carpenter over Jafel Filho
Claude 72%
GPT 72%
GPT 72%
Irina Alekseeva over Bia Mesquita
Claude 72%
GPT 72%
GPT 72%
Stewart Nicoll over Lucas Rocha
Both call Decision
Claude 65%
GPT 78%
GPT 78%
Valter Walker over Mohammed Usman
Claude 72%
GPT 67%
GPT 67%
Michael Aswell over Lucas Almeida
Both call Decision
Claude 65%
GPT 70%
GPT 70%
Thomas Petersen over Vitor Petrino
Both call Decision
Claude 68%
GPT 62%
GPT 62%
Win confidence is the model's probability that its pick wins: 55 to 64 is a shrug, 65 to 74 is confident, 75 and up is the model betting its reputation.
KO/TKO, Submission, Decision is how the model splits the ways the fight ends, out of 100.
Odds are the sportsbook moneyline with the bookmaker margin removed, so the two percentages sum to 100. When a model's confidence beats the market's implied number, that gap is the value.
Elo is an opponent adjusted rating built from every UFC fight since 1994. Click any Elo number on the card for the full explanation, including what the star means.
FINAL: Charles Oliveira by SUB Rear Naked Choke
Oliveira LWLWL 105d out Gamrot WLWWW 133d out last 5
Charles Oliveira last fought 105 days ago
L
vs Ilia Topuria · KO/TKO Punch2025-06-28
W
vs Michael Chandler · 2024-11-16
L
vs Arman Tsarukyan · S-DEC2024-04-13
W
vs Beneil Dariush · KO/TKO2023-06-10
L
vs Islam Makhachev · SUB2022-10-22
Mateusz Gamrot last fought 133 days ago
W
vs Ludovit Klein · U-DEC2025-05-31
L
vs Dan Hooker · S-DEC2024-03-09
W
vs Rafael Dos Anjos · U-DEC2024-03-09
W
vs Rafael Fiziev · KO/TKO2023-09-23
W
vs Jalin Turner · S-DEC2023-03-04
Claude HIT
Charles Oliveira
65%win confidence
KO/TKO 20%
Submission 45%
Decision 35%
Oliveira's elite submission game (2.7 subs/fight) and 4-inch reach advantage will be decisive. While Gamrot has excellent takedown defense (90%), Oliveira's opportunistic submission style doesn't require traditional takedowns. Fighting in Rio provides massive crowd support, and Oliveira's recent win...
GPT MISS
Mateusz Gamrot
65%win confidence
KO/TKO 10%
Submission 20%
Decision 70%
Gamrot's elite wrestling, high takedown output (5.25 per fight), and 90% takedown defense make it very difficult for Oliveira to impose his submission-heavy grappling. While Oliveira is more dangerous with submissions (2.7 per fight) and has a slight striking volume edge, Gamrot is much harder to co...
FINAL: Deiveson Figueiredo by S-DEC
Figueiredo LLWWW 161d out Jackson WWWWW 161d out last 5
Deiveson Figueiredo last fought 161 days ago
L
vs Cory Sandhagen · KO/TKO2025-05-03
L
vs Petr Yan · 2024-11-23
W
vs Cody Garbrandt · SUB2024-04-13
W
vs Marlon Vera · U-DEC2024-02-24
W
vs Rob Font · U-DEC2023-12-02
Montel Jackson last fought 161 days ago
W
vs Daniel Marcos · U-DEC2025-05-03
W
vs Da'Mon Blackshear · KO/TKO2024-02-03
W
vs Rani Yahya · KO/TKO2023-04-22
W
vs Julio Arce · U-DEC2022-11-12
W
vs JP Buys · U-DEC2021-09-18
Claude MISS
Montel Jackson
72%win confidence
KO/TKO 55%
Submission 15%
Decision 30%
Jackson's significant physical advantages (5 inches height, 7 inches reach) combined with his superior striking defense (63% vs 51%) create a nightmare matchup for Figueiredo. Jackson's 5-fight win streak with 3 recent KOs shows finishing momentum, while Figueiredo is coming off a loss and has absor...
GPT MISS
Montel Jackson
74%win confidence
KO/TKO 18%
Submission 10%
Decision 72%
Montel Jackson holds significant advantages in reach, defensive striking, and grappling efficiency. His striking defense (63%) and low strikes absorbed per minute (1.42) will mitigate Figueiredo's power, while his takedown accuracy (71%) and output (3.41 TDAvg) make him difficult to out-grapple. Fig...
FINAL: Joel Alvarez by U-DEC
Luque LWLWL 126d out Alvarez WWWLW 300d out last 5
Vicente Luque last fought 126 days ago
L
vs Kevin Holland · SUB Anaconda Choke2025-06-07
W
vs Themba Gorimbo · SUB Anaconda Choke2024-12-07
L
vs Joaquin Buckley · KO/TKO2024-03-30
W
vs Rafael Dos Anjos · U-DEC2023-08-12
L
vs Geoff Neal · KO/TKO2022-08-06
Joel Alvarez last fought 300 days ago
W
vs Drakkar Klose · KO/TKO Knee2024-12-14
W
vs Elves Brener · KO/TKO2024-02-24
W
vs Marc Diakiese · SUB2023-07-22
L
vs Arman Tsarukyan · KO/TKO2022-02-26
W
vs Thiago Moises · KO/TKO2021-11-13
Claude HIT
Joel Alvarez
68%win confidence
KO/TKO 48%
Submission 22%
Decision 30%
Alvarez's massive size advantage moving up from lightweight (6'3" with 77" reach) combined with his 4-fight win streak creates a difficult puzzle for Luque. Alvarez's striking differential (+1.03) significantly outpaces Luque's (-0.14), and his recent finishing streak (3 KOs, 1 sub) shows elite mome...
GPT MISS
Vicente Luque
68%win confidence
KO/TKO 54%
Submission 16%
Decision 30%
Luque's proven striking power, higher level of competition, and superior takedown defense (62% vs. Alvarez's 0% TD accuracy/42% TD defense) give him advantages in both standup and grappling exchanges. Alvarez is dangerous with submissions (1.2 per fight), but his low takedown defense and lower outpu...
FINAL: Mario Pinto by KO/TKO Punches
Diniz WLWW 105d out Pinto W 223d out last 5
Jhonata Diniz last fought 105 days ago
W
vs Alvin Hines · U-DEC2025-06-28
L
vs Marcin Tybura · 2024-11-16
W
vs Austen Lane · KO/TKO2024-04-27
W
vs Karl Williams · U-DEC2024-03-02
Mario Pinto last fought 223 days ago
W
vs Austen Lane · KO/TKO Punch2025-03-01
Claude HIT
Mario Pinto
72%win confidence
KO/TKO 65%
Submission 5%
Decision 30%
Pinto's massive striking volume advantage (8.16 SLPM vs 4.09) combined with elite accuracy (93% vs 53%) creates a nightmare matchup for Diniz. While Diniz has shown KO power, his recent loss and defensive vulnerabilities (55% strike defense) against Pinto's overwhelming output suggests he'll be over...
GPT HIT
Mario Pinto
81%win confidence
KO/TKO 68%
Submission 2%
Decision 30%
Mario Pinto's statistical profile demonstrates an exceptionally high striking volume (8.16 SLpM) with an elite accuracy rate (93%), far surpassing Diniz in both metrics. While neither fighter shows grappling activity, Pinto's superior defensive numbers (61% StrDef) and positive strike differential (...
FINAL: Kaan Ofli by SUB Rear Naked Choke
Ramos LLWLW 223d out Ofli LL 251d out last 5
Ricardo Ramos last fought 223 days ago
L
vs Chepe Mariscal · U-DEC2025-03-01
L
vs Julian Erosa · SUB2024-03-23
W
vs Josh Culibao · S-DEC2024-03-09
L
vs Charles Jourdain · SUB2023-09-23
W
vs Danny Chavez · KO/TKO2022-06-18
Kaan Ofli last fought 251 days ago
L
vs Muhammad Naimov · U-DEC2025-02-01
L
vs Mairon Santos · KO/TKO2024-03-16
Claude MISS
Ricardo Ramos
78%win confidence
KO/TKO 20%
Submission 55%
Decision 25%
Ramos holds massive advantages in both grappling and experience. Ofli's 0% takedown defense and two consecutive KO losses indicate severe defensive liabilities. Ramos averages 2.77 takedowns and 0.8 submissions per fight, while Ofli has shown zero grappling ability in limited UFC action. The 6-inch ...
GPT MISS
Ricardo Ramos
78%win confidence
KO/TKO 12%
Submission 53%
Decision 35%
Ricardo Ramos holds major statistical advantages in grappling and overall UFC experience. Ramos averages 2.77 takedowns per fight with high accuracy (61%) and solid submission activity (0.8 per fight), while Ofli has no recorded takedown or submission attempts and absorbs significantly more strikes ...
Almeida LWLLW 223d out Aswell last 5
Lucas Almeida last fought 223 days ago
L
vs Danny Silva · S-DEC2025-03-01
W
vs Timmy Cuamba · U-DEC2024-01-13
L
vs Andre Fili · KO/TKO2023-12-16
L
vs Pat Sabatini · SUB2023-06-17
W
vs Michael Trizano · KO/TKO2022-06-04
Michael Aswell no UFC fights on record
Claude
Michael Aswell
65%win confidence
KO/TKO 25%
Submission 10%
Decision 65%
Aswell's striking volume advantage (10.33 vs 4.94 SLPM) and superior striking differential (+3.53 vs +0.02) should overwhelm Almeida over three rounds. While Almeida has more UFC experience, his recent form shows vulnerability to both strikes and submissions. Aswell's 50% striking accuracy with doub...
GPT
Michael Aswell
70%win confidence
KO/TKO 25%
Submission 5%
Decision 70%
Michael Aswell possesses a significant edge in striking volume (10.33 SLpM vs 4.94 SLpM) and accuracy (50% vs 43%), along with a better striking differential (+3.53 vs +0.02). Both fighters lack grappling threats, making this likely a stand-up battle. Aswell's higher output and strike defense (52% v...
FINAL: Jafel Filho by SUB Kimura
Filho LWWL 133d out Carpenter LWW 265d out last 5
Jafel Filho last fought 133 days ago
L
vs Allan Nascimento · U-DEC2025-05-31
W
vs Ode Osbourne · SUB2024-03-16
W
vs Daniel Barez · SUB2023-07-22
L
vs Muhammad Mokaev · SUB2023-03-18
Clayton Carpenter last fought 265 days ago
L
vs Tagir Ulanbekov · U-DEC2025-01-18
W
vs Lucas Rocha · SUB2024-04-27
W
vs Juancamilo Ronderos · SUB2023-02-18
Claude MISS
Clayton Carpenter
72%win confidence
KO/TKO 15%
Submission 60%
Decision 25%
This grappling chess match favors Carpenter's superior wrestling and submission game. Carpenter's 55% takedown accuracy and 2.95 TD average edges Filho's 33% and 1.77. More critically, Carpenter has finished all three UFC wins by submission while maintaining better striking metrics. Filho's 55% take...
GPT MISS
Clayton Carpenter
72%win confidence
KO/TKO 12%
Submission 28%
Decision 60%
Carpenter's superior striking volume, accuracy, and defensive metrics give him an edge in both stand-up exchanges and grappling scrambles. Although both fighters are submission threats, Carpenter's pace, offensive wrestling, and striking differential are likely to control the fight's tempo. Filho is...
FINAL: Vitor Petrino by KO/TKO Punch
Petrino WLWLW 91d out Petersen WLWL 161d out last 5
Vitor Petrino last fought 91 days ago
W
vs Austen Lane · SUB Rear Naked Choke2025-07-12
L
vs Dustin Jacoby · KO/TKO Punch2024-12-14
W
vs Tyson Pedro · U-DEC2024-03-02
L
vs Anthony Smith · SUB2023-12-09
W
vs Modestas Bukauskas · KO/TKO2023-11-04
Thomas Petersen last fought 161 days ago
W
vs Don'Tale Mayes · U-DEC2025-05-03
L
vs Shamil Gaziev · KO/TKO Punch2025-02-01
W
vs Mohammed Usman · U-DEC2024-02-10
L
vs Jamal Pogues · U-DEC2024-02-03
Claude MISS
Thomas Petersen
68%win confidence
KO/TKO 25%
Submission 15%
Decision 60%
Petersen's superior striking volume (4.32 SLPM vs 2.82) and accuracy (61% vs 45%) should dominate the standup exchanges. While Petrino has a grappling advantage with 3.98 takedowns per fight, Petersen's perfect 100% takedown defense negates this threat. Petersen's southpaw stance creates awkward ang...
GPT MISS
Thomas Petersen
62%win confidence
KO/TKO 22%
Submission 10%
Decision 68%
Petersen holds significant advantages in striking accuracy (61% vs. 45%), striking volume (4.32 SLpM vs. 2.82), and striking defense (57% vs. 45%). His perfect 100% takedown defense, though from a small sample, suggests Petrino's high takedown average may be blunted. While Petrino is more aggressive...
FINAL: Bia Mesquita by SUB Rear Naked Choke
Mesquita Alekseeva LLW 112d out last 5
Bia Mesquita no UFC fights on record
Irina Alekseeva last fought 112 days ago
L
vs Klaudia Sygula · U-DEC2025-06-21
L
vs Melissa Mullins · U-DEC2023-10-14
W
vs Stephanie Egger · SUB2023-04-29
Claude MISS
Irina Alekseeva
72%win confidence
KO/TKO 20%
Submission 45%
Decision 35%
Alekseeva brings proven UFC experience with established striking metrics (3.84 SLPM, 43% accuracy) against Mesquita who has zero recorded UFC statistics. Alekseeva's 0.9 submissions per fight and recent submission victory demonstrate active ground threats. The 67-inch reach advantage for Alekseeva c...
GPT MISS
Irina Alekseeva
72%win confidence
KO/TKO 10%
Submission 18%
Decision 72%
Irina Alekseeva has proven UFC experience, measurable striking output, and strong takedown defense. Bia Mesquita, despite her elite BJJ background, has no UFC stats or evidence of MMA effectiveness, creating significant uncertainty about her ability to translate grappling into MMA success. Alekseeva...
FINAL: Lucas Rocha by U-DEC
Rocha L 532d out Nicoll L 580d out last 5
Lucas Rocha last fought 532 days ago, long layoff
L
vs Clayton Carpenter · SUB2024-04-27
Stewart Nicoll last fought 580 days ago, long layoff
L
vs Jesus Aguilar · SUB2024-03-09
Claude MISS
Stewart Nicoll
65%win confidence
KO/TKO 15%
Submission 25%
Decision 60%
Nicoll's wrestling dominance with 5.66 takedowns per fight at 100% accuracy should control this matchup against Rocha's 61% takedown defense. While both fighters are coming off submission losses, Nicoll's superior striking differential (+1.89 vs -2.48) and volume advantage (3.02 vs 2.0 SLPM) provide...
GPT MISS
Stewart Nicoll
78%win confidence
KO/TKO 14%
Submission 6%
Decision 80%
Stewart Nicoll holds clear statistical advantages in both striking and grappling metrics. He lands more strikes per minute with higher accuracy, absorbs significantly fewer strikes, and averages 5.66 takedowns per fight with perfect takedown accuracy. Rocha has shown defensive vulnerabilities, absor...
Walker WWLW 91d out Usman WLLWW 112d out last 5
Valter Walker last fought 91 days ago
W
vs Kennedy Nzechukwu · SUB Heel Hook2025-07-12
W
vs Don'Tale Mayes · SUB Heel Hook2025-02-15
L
vs Lukasz Brzeski · U-DEC2024-04-06
W
vs Junior Tafa · SUB2024-03-09
Mohammed Usman last fought 112 days ago
W
vs Hamdy Abdelwahab · U-DEC2025-06-21
L
vs Mick Parkin · U-DEC2024-03-23
L
vs Thomas Petersen · U-DEC2024-02-10
W
vs Jake Collier · U-DEC2023-09-23
W
vs Junior Tafa · U-DEC2023-04-22
Claude
Valter Walker
72%win confidence
KO/TKO 15%
Submission 55%
Decision 30%
Walker's elite grappling credentials (75% takedown accuracy, 4.52 takedowns per fight) present a nightmare matchup for Usman's poor takedown defense (60%). Walker has submitted both common opponents (Junior Tafa twice), while Usman went to decisions. The massive grappling differential and Walker's s...
GPT
Valter Walker
67%win confidence
KO/TKO 10%
Submission 18%
Decision 72%
Walker holds a decisive grappling advantage with high takedown volume (4.52 per fight) and exceptional accuracy (75%), while Usman has shown vulnerability to takedowns (60% TD Def) and offers little on the ground. Usman is the higher-volume striker, but his low striking accuracy (36%) and negative d...
FINAL: Julia Polastri by KO/TKO Punches
Polastri LWL 196d out Kowalkiewicz LWWWW 671d out last 5
Julia Polastri last fought 196 days ago
L
vs Loopy Godinez · U-DEC2025-03-29
W
vs Cory McKenna · S-DEC2024-04-27
L
vs Josefine Knutsson · U-DEC2024-01-13
Karolina Kowalkiewicz last fought 671 days ago, long layoff
L
vs Iasmin Lucindo · U-DEC2023-12-09
W
vs Diana Belbita · U-DEC2023-10-07
W
vs Vanessa Demopoulos · U-DEC2023-05-20
W
vs Silvana Gomez Juarez · U-DEC2022-11-12
W
vs Felice Herrig · SUB2022-06-04
Claude HIT
Julia Polastri
63%win confidence
KO/TKO 10%
Submission 25%
Decision 65%
Polastri's superior grappling (80% takedown accuracy vs Kowalkiewicz's 23%) and recent momentum (2-fight win streak) give her the edge. Kowalkiewicz's 38-year-old legs have shown vulnerability to wrestlers, and Polastri's 3x submission threat advantage (0.6 vs 0.2 per fight) forces Kowalkiewicz to d...
GPT MISS
Karolina Kowalkiewicz
62%win confidence
KO/TKO 7%
Submission 5%
Decision 88%
Kowalkiewicz holds a slight edge in striking volume and experience at the UFC level, combined with better takedown defense (73% vs 61%) which should help neutralize Polastri's superior takedown accuracy. Both fighters are defensively similar and have comparable output, but Kowalkiewicz's durability ...
FINAL: Luan Lacerda by SUB Armbar
Lacerda LL 861d out Oliveira LLL 196d out last 5
Luan Lacerda last fought 861 days ago, long layoff
L
vs Da'Mon Blackshear · KO/TKO2023-06-03
L
vs Cody Stamann · U-DEC2023-01-21
Saimon Oliveira last fought 196 days ago
L
vs David Martinez · KO/TKO Knee2025-03-29
L
vs Daniel Marcos · KO/TKO2023-01-21
L
vs Tony Gravely · U-DEC2022-01-22
Claude MISS
Saimon Oliveira
58%win confidence
KO/TKO 20%
Submission 45%
Decision 35%
Despite both fighters coming off losses, Oliveira's superior submission game (1.6 subs per fight vs Lacerda's 0.6) and better takedown defense differential create opportunities. Lacerda's recent KO loss raises durability concerns, while Oliveira's grappling-heavy approach avoids striking exchanges. ...
GPT HIT
Luan Lacerda
65%win confidence
KO/TKO 12%
Submission 18%
Decision 70%
Lacerda holds notable advantages in striking output, accuracy, and defensive metrics, while Oliveira's high submission average is offset by his low takedown accuracy and poor takedown defense. Lacerda's superior defensive grappling (75% TDDef) should allow him to keep the fight standing, where his h...