August 29, 2026
UFC Fight Night: Nurmagomedov vs. Song
Card complete. Claude 9/13 (69%) · GPT 7/13 (54%)
All results
Both models agree 11 of 13 fights
Umar Nurmagomedov over Song Yadong
Both call Decision
Claude 76%
GPT 76%
GPT 76%
Rei Tsuruya over Kevin Borjas
Claude 72%
GPT 78%
GPT 78%
Bilal Hasan over Nilson Rojas
Both call KO/TKO
Claude 65%
GPT 67%
GPT 67%
Lawrence Lui over Hector Santiago
Both call Decision
Claude 64%
GPT 67%
GPT 67%
Andre Lima over Namsrai Batbayar
Both call Decision
Claude 62%
GPT 68%
GPT 68%
Kai Asakura over Aoriqileng
Both call KO/TKO
Claude 61%
GPT 68%
GPT 68%
Liu Ce over Levi Rodrigues Jr.
Both call KO/TKO
Claude 58%
GPT 70%
GPT 70%
Alex Perez over Sumudaerji
Claude 59%
GPT 67%
GPT 67%
Julia Polastri over Xiong Jingnan
Both call Decision
Claude 61%
GPT 64%
GPT 64%
Sean Woodson over Jack Jenkins
Both call Decision
Claude 57%
GPT 67%
GPT 67%
Ding Meng over Cam Nelson
Both call Decision
Claude 56%
GPT 58%
GPT 58%
Double locks: both at 75% or higher 1 fight
Umar Nurmagomedov over Song Yadong
Both call Decision
Claude 76%
GPT 76%
GPT 76%
Build your own list 11 match
Umar Nurmagomedov over Song Yadong
Both call Decision
Claude 76%
GPT 76%
GPT 76%
Rei Tsuruya over Kevin Borjas
Claude 72%
GPT 78%
GPT 78%
Bilal Hasan over Nilson Rojas
Both call KO/TKO
Claude 65%
GPT 67%
GPT 67%
Lawrence Lui over Hector Santiago
Both call Decision
Claude 64%
GPT 67%
GPT 67%
Andre Lima over Namsrai Batbayar
Both call Decision
Claude 62%
GPT 68%
GPT 68%
Kai Asakura over Aoriqileng
Both call KO/TKO
Claude 61%
GPT 68%
GPT 68%
Liu Ce over Levi Rodrigues Jr.
Both call KO/TKO
Claude 58%
GPT 70%
GPT 70%
Alex Perez over Sumudaerji
Claude 59%
GPT 67%
GPT 67%
Julia Polastri over Xiong Jingnan
Both call Decision
Claude 61%
GPT 64%
GPT 64%
Sean Woodson over Jack Jenkins
Both call Decision
Claude 57%
GPT 67%
GPT 67%
Ding Meng over Cam Nelson
Both call Decision
Claude 56%
GPT 58%
GPT 58%
Win confidence is the model's probability that its pick wins: 55 to 64 is a shrug, 65 to 74 is confident, 75 and up is the model betting its reputation.
KO/TKO, Submission, Decision is how the model splits the ways the fight ends, out of 100.
Odds are the sportsbook moneyline with the bookmaker margin removed, so the two percentages sum to 100. When a model's confidence beats the market's implied number, that gap is the value.
Elo is an opponent adjusted rating built from every UFC fight since 1994. Click any Elo number on the card for the full explanation, including what the star means.
FINAL: Song Yadong by KO/TKO Punch
Umar Nurmagomedov -520 (79.05405405405406%)
Song Yadong +350 (20.945945945945947%)
fanduel line
Nurmagomedov WWLWW 216d out Yadong WLWLW 91d out last 5
Umar Nurmagomedov last fought 216 days ago
W
vs Deiveson Figueiredo · U-DEC2026-01-24
W
vs Mario Bautista · U-DEC2025-10-25
L
vs Merab Dvalishvili · U-DEC2025-01-18
W
vs Bekzat Almakhan · U-DEC2024-03-02
W
vs Cory Sandhagen · U-DEC2024-02-24
Song Yadong last fought 91 days ago
W
vs Deiveson Figueiredo · SUB Guillotine Choke2026-05-30
L
vs Sean O'Malley · U-DEC2026-01-24
W
vs Henry Cejudo · U-DEC2025-02-22
L
vs Petr Yan · U-DEC2024-03-09
W
vs Chris Gutierrez · U-DEC2023-12-09
Claude MISS
Umar Nurmagomedov
76%win confidence
KO/TKO 10%
Submission 15%
Decision 75%
The market (-520, 79% de-vigged) and Elo (54%) disagree sharply here, and the truth sits closer to the market. Elo underrates Umar because his 10-fight UFC sample is short but loaded with elite names, and his lone loss came in a competitive five-rounder against Merab Dvalishvili - the best bantamwei...
GPT MISS
Umar Nurmagomedov
76%win confidence
KO/TKO 14%
Submission 16%
Decision 70%
Nurmagomedov's superior defensive striking, accuracy, and high-frequency wrestling should allow him to dictate range and control extended portions of the fight. He absorbs only 1.86 significant strikes per minute compared with Song's 3.81 and owns a much stronger striking differential of +2.00 versu...
FINAL: Denise Gomes by KO/TKO Elbow
Yan Xiaonan -170 (59.36183022275737%)
Denise Gomes +132 (40.638169777242624%)
fanduel line
Xiaonan LWLWW 504d out Gomes WWLWL 293d out last 5
Yan Xiaonan last fought 504 days ago, long layoff
L
vs Virna Jandiroba · U-DEC2025-04-12
W
vs Tabatha Ricci · 2024-11-23
L
vs Zhang Weili · U-DEC2024-04-13
W
vs Jessica Andrade · KO/TKO2023-05-06
W
vs Mackenzie Dern · M-DEC2022-10-01
Denise Gomes last fought 293 days ago
W
vs Tecia Pennington · U-DEC2025-11-08
W
vs Elise Reed · KO/TKO Punches2025-05-17
L
vs win · 2024-11-09
W
vs Eduarda Moura · S-DEC2024-01-06
L
vs Angela Hill · U-DEC2023-11-04
Claude HIT
Denise Gomes
56%win confidence
KO/TKO 24%
Submission 6%
Decision 70%
This is my one deliberate disagreement with the market (Yan -170, 59%). The factor being underweighted is the compound of age and inactivity: Yan is 37 years old and enters on a 498-day layoff - well past the ~450-day threshold where ring rust becomes a material, measurable risk - and her last outin...
GPT MISS
Yan Xiaonan
69%win confidence
KO/TKO 16%
Submission 6%
Decision 78%
Yan Xiaonan's cleaner distance striking, nine-point advantage in significant-strike defense, and slightly stronger striking differential should allow her to win exchanges while limiting Gomes' power. Gomes offers more takedown and submission activity, but her 34% takedown accuracy makes sustained co...
FINAL: Kai Asakura by KO/TKO Punches
Aoriqileng LWLLW 91d out Asakura WLL 91d out last 5
Aoriqileng last fought 91 days ago
L
vs Cody Haddon · KO/TKO Knee2026-05-30
W
vs Cody Gibson · KO/TKO Punch2025-10-18
L
vs Raul Rosas Jr. · U-DEC2024-03-30
L
vs Daniel Marcos · CNC2024-02-10
W
vs Johnny Munoz · U-DEC2023-10-07
Kai Asakura last fought 91 days ago
W
vs Cameron Smotherman · KO/TKO Punch2026-05-30
L
vs Tim Elliott · SUB Guillotine Choke2025-08-16
L
vs Alexandre Pantoja · SUB Rear Naked Choke2024-12-07
Claude HIT
Kai Asakura
61%win confidence
KO/TKO 55%
Submission 8%
Decision 37%
No market line provided, so this leans on Elo (52/48 Asakura, though his rating is provisional at 3 UFC fights) and the stylistic read. This is a pure striker-vs-striker matchup, and it favors Asakura's cleaner weapons against Aoriqileng's deteriorating durability. Aoriqileng absorbs a brutal 5.66 S...
GPT HIT
Kai Asakura
68%win confidence
KO/TKO 55%
Submission 7%
Decision 38%
Asakura's UFC statistics come from a limited and difficult sample, but his speed, counterpunching, and proven finishing power outside the UFC give him the higher offensive ceiling. Aoriqileng lands at greater volume, yet absorbs 5.66 significant strikes per minute with only 46% defense and a -1.26 s...
FINAL: Sumudaerji by U-DEC
Perez WLWLL 216d out Sumudaerji WWWLL 174d out last 5
Alex Perez last fought 216 days ago
W
vs Charles Johnson · KO/TKO Punch2026-01-24
L
vs Asu Almabayev · SUB Guillotine Choke2025-11-22
W
vs Matheus Nicolau · KO/TKO2024-04-27
L
vs Muhammad Mokaev · U-DEC2024-03-02
L
vs Tatsuro Taira · KO/TKO2024-01-13
Sumudaerji last fought 174 days ago
W
vs Jesus Aguilar · U-DEC2026-03-07
W
vs Kevin Borjas · U-DEC2025-08-23
W
vs Mitch Raposo · S-DEC2025-04-12
L
vs Charles Johnson · U-DEC2024-04-27
L
vs Tim Elliott · SUB2023-12-09
Claude MISS
Alex Perez
59%win confidence
KO/TKO 45%
Submission 11%
Decision 44%
This is an immediate rematch of their May 2026 no-contest, and the underlying matchup data leans toward Perez despite Sumudaerji's home-region advantage in Shanghai. The common-opponent evidence is the sharpest signal available: Perez knocked out Charles Johnson in round one in January 2026, while S...
GPT MISS
Alex Perez
67%win confidence
KO/TKO 20%
Submission 42%
Decision 38%
Sumudaerji owns the cleaner long-range striking profile, landing 4.40 significant strikes per minute with a +2.11 differential and a seven-inch reach advantage. Perez, however, has the stronger matchup-specific path through pressure wrestling, averaging 2.07 takedowns with 45% accuracy and 0.8 submi...
FINAL: Liu Ce by KO/TKO Punch
Claude HIT
Liu Ce
58%win confidence
KO/TKO 57%
Submission 14%
Decision 29%
Data is minimal here and both fighters are effectively debutants from a UFC statistical standpoint, so confidence must be capped and this read is built from context rather than metrics. What we do know cuts against Rodrigues: he was knocked out by Felipe Franco with punches just 38 days before this ...
GPT HIT
Liu Ce
70%win confidence
KO/TKO 65%
Submission 8%
Decision 27%
The available data are limited, but Rodrigues' defensive profile is a major concern: he absorbs 4.6 significant strikes per minute while landing 2.6, producing a -2.0 differential, and his 29% striking defense leaves him highly vulnerable in sustained exchanges. Liu is favored to exploit those defen...
FINAL: Andre Lima by SUB Guillotine Choke
Namsrai Batbayar +200 (31.46551724137931%)
Andre Lima -265 (68.5344827586207%)
fanduel line
Batbayar Lima WWWW 532d out last 5
Namsrai Batbayar no UFC fights on record
Andre Lima last fought 532 days ago, long layoff
W
vs Daniel Barez · SUB Rear Naked Choke2025-03-15
W
vs Felipe dos Santos · U-DEC2024-03-23
W
vs Igor Severino · DQ2024-03-23
W
vs Mitch Raposo · S-DEC2024-01-01
Claude HIT
Andre Lima
62%win confidence
KO/TKO 15%
Submission 13%
Decision 72%
Batbayar is a UFC debutant coming off the Road to UFC pipeline with three straight finishes (KO by knee, RNC, KO by punch), so his statistical profile must be treated as unverified against UFC-level opposition - none of his listed metrics carry meaningful sample weight. Lima, despite dropping a deci...
GPT HIT
Andre Lima
68%win confidence
KO/TKO 24%
Submission 12%
Decision 64%
Lima projects as the cleaner and more defensively responsible striker. He holds advantages in significant-strike accuracy (56% to 45%), striking defense (58% to 48%), strikes absorbed per minute (2.66 to 3.42), and striking differential (+1.28 to +1.02). Batbayar's higher volume and takedown activit...
FINAL: Sean Woodson by S-DEC
Jack Jenkins +128 (41.38449962377727%)
Sean Woodson -164 (58.61550037622273%)
fanduel line
Jenkins WLWLW 336d out Woodson LWWWW 504d out last 5
Jack Jenkins last fought 336 days ago
W
vs Ramon Taveras · U-DEC2025-09-27
L
vs Gabriel Santos · SUB Rear Naked Choke2025-02-08
W
vs Herbert Burns · KO/TKO2024-03-09
L
vs Chepe Mariscal · KO/TKO2023-09-09
W
vs Jamall Emmers · S-DEC2023-06-24
Sean Woodson last fought 504 days ago, long layoff
L
vs Dan Ige · KO/TKO Punches2025-04-12
W
vs Fernando Padilla · KO/TKO Punches2024-12-14
W
vs Charles Jourdain · S-DEC2024-01-20
W
vs Alex Caceres · U-DEC2023-12-16
W
vs Dennis Buzukja · U-DEC2023-08-05
Claude HIT
Sean Woodson
57%win confidence
KO/TKO 22%
Submission 8%
Decision 70%
This is closer than the -164 line suggests, and the single biggest red flag sits on the favorite's side: Woodson enters off a 498-day layoff following a KO loss to Dan Ige - the exact profile (long absence + last memory is getting finished) that produces ring rust and hesitancy. That said, the struc...
GPT HIT
Sean Woodson
67%win confidence
KO/TKO 20%
Submission 5%
Decision 75%
Woodson's 10-inch reach advantage, higher striking output, and strong 84% takedown defense should allow him to control range and win exchanges over three rounds. Jenkins is more accurate and can threaten with wrestling, but his 1.98 takedowns per fight may be difficult to sustain against Woodson's d...
FINAL: Rei Tsuruya by SUB Rear Naked Choke
Rei Tsuruya -650 (81.84019370460048%)
Kevin Borjas +420 (18.159806295399516%)
fanduel line
Tsuruya LW 538d out Borjas LWLL 371d out last 5
Rei Tsuruya last fought 538 days ago, long layoff
L
vs Joshua Van · U-DEC2025-03-08
W
vs Carlos Hernandez · U-DEC2024-01-27
Kevin Borjas last fought 371 days ago
L
vs Sumudaerji · U-DEC2025-08-23
W
vs Ronaldo Rodriguez · U-DEC2025-03-29
L
vs Alessandro Costa · KO/TKO2023-12-09
L
vs Joshua Van · U-DEC2023-11-11
Claude HIT
Rei Tsuruya
72%win confidence
KO/TKO 10%
Submission 45%
Decision 45%
There is real tension here between the market (-650, 82% Tsuruya) and Elo (56% Tsuruya, both ratings provisional), and the resolution lies in the stylistic read the Elo model cannot see. Tsuruya is a relentless chain wrestler averaging 5.03 takedowns per fight with a 2.0 submission average, coming o...
GPT HIT
Rei Tsuruya
78%win confidence
KO/TKO 10%
Submission 34%
Decision 56%
Tsuruya's high-frequency wrestling and submission threat should dictate the matchup. He averages 5.03 takedowns and 2.0 submission attempts per 15 minutes, while Borjas offers no offensive grappling and absorbs 5.27 significant strikes per minute with a -1.40 striking differential. Borjas' 72% taked...
FINAL: Julia Polastri by KO/TKO Kick
Jingnan L 91d out Polastri LWLWL 126d out last 5
Xiong Jingnan last fought 91 days ago
L
vs Angela Hill · U-DEC2026-05-30
Julia Polastri last fought 126 days ago
L
vs Talita Alencar · U-DEC2026-04-25
W
vs Karolina Kowalkiewicz · KO/TKO Punches2025-10-11
L
vs Loopy Godinez · U-DEC2025-03-29
W
vs Cory McKenna · S-DEC2024-04-27
L
vs Josefine Knutsson · U-DEC2024-01-13
Claude HIT
Julia Polastri
61%win confidence
KO/TKO 15%
Submission 7%
Decision 78%
Xiong arrives with a huge name from her ONE Championship title reign, but her lone UFC data point was sobering: she was out-pointed by Angela Hill while absorbing a massive 8.13 significant strikes per minute with only 38% striking defense and 34% accuracy - a -3.6 strike differential. At 38 years o...
GPT HIT
Julia Polastri
64%win confidence
KO/TKO 20%
Submission 10%
Decision 70%
Polastri owns the stronger statistical profile, landing at a higher rate and accuracy while absorbing substantially fewer strikes. Her positive striking differential contrasts sharply with Xiong's negative differential, and her takedown threat should further disrupt Xiong's boxing rhythm. Xiong's ex...
FINAL: Bilal Hasan by KO/TKO Punch
Bilal Hasan -650 (81.84019370460048%)
Nilson Rojas +420 (18.159806295399516%)
fanduel line
Claude HIT
Bilal Hasan
65%win confidence
KO/TKO 48%
Submission 17%
Decision 35%
This is a matchup of two undefeated fighters where neither has a completed UFC bout, so statistical inference must lean on the market, DWCS footage, and physical profile rather than UFCStats fields. The market is emphatic: Hasan -650 (82% de-vigged), a strong-consensus 64-point spread. Hasan just bl...
GPT HIT
Bilal Hasan
67%win confidence
KO/TKO 57%
Submission 10%
Decision 33%
Hasan is the pick based on the only meaningful statistical evidence available: exceptionally high reported striking output, 80% accuracy, and a +24 striking differential. His switch stance should also create favorable angles against Rojas' orthodox stance. Rojas has no usable UFC striking or grappli...
FINAL: Francesco Nuzzi by KO/TKO Punches
Long LLWL 174d out Nuzzi last 5
Xiao Long last fought 174 days ago
L
vs Cody Garbrandt · U-DEC2026-03-07
L
vs SuYoung You · U-DEC2025-08-23
W
vs Quang Le · 2024-11-23
L
vs ChangHo Lee · S-DEC2024-01-20
Francesco Nuzzi no UFC fights on record
Claude HIT
Francesco Nuzzi
58%win confidence
KO/TKO 22%
Submission 10%
Decision 68%
Xiao Long's UFC ledger tells a consistent story: a durable, decent-volume striker (5.06 SLpM, 47% accuracy, 82% TD defense) who keeps fights competitive but loses the decisive exchanges - he's 1-3 in the UFC and rides two straight decision losses to Garbrandt and SuYoung You. His 20% finish rate and...
GPT MISS
Xiao Long
64%win confidence
KO/TKO 24%
Submission 11%
Decision 65%
Xiao Long has the stronger measurable UFC-level profile, producing 5.06 significant strikes per minute with a positive +1.21 striking differential and solid 82% takedown defense. His 50% striking defense leaves openings, particularly in the orthodox-versus-southpaw matchup, but Nuzzi's absent UFC st...
FINAL: Hector Santiago by KO/TKO Punch
Lawrence Lui -310 (71.38869504535938%)
Hector Santiago +230 (28.611304954640616%)
fanduel line
Lui W 209d out Santiago last 5
Lawrence Lui last fought 209 days ago
W
vs Sulangrangbo · S-DEC2026-01-31
Hector Santiago no UFC fights on record
Claude MISS
Lawrence Lui
64%win confidence
KO/TKO 15%
Submission 12%
Decision 73%
Lui enters with genuine momentum: a 3-fight win streak including a UFC 325 decision over Sulangrangbo and a Road to UFC knockout, and his profile (5.3 takedowns per fight attempted, 100% takedown defense in his lone UFC outing, +0.40 striking differential) points to a control-grappler who imposes pa...
GPT MISS
Lawrence Lui
67%win confidence
KO/TKO 24%
Submission 10%
Decision 66%
Lui is the more supportable pick because he has demonstrated positive striking defense and differential alongside a high-output wrestling game. His 5.3 takedown average, 40% takedown accuracy, and reported 100% takedown defense give him multiple ways to control rounds. Santiago has no meaningful UFC...
FINAL: Cam Nelson by U-DEC
Claude MISS
Ding Meng
56%win confidence
KO/TKO 25%
Submission 10%
Decision 65%
This is a low-information fight with no market line and neither man holding a completed UFC bout on record. Ding Meng brings enormous professional volume - a 35-10 record with 45 wins-and-losses of cage time - but the recency picture is troubling: decision losses on DWCS (2024) and to Jose Souza thi...
GPT MISS
Ding Meng
58%win confidence
KO/TKO 24%
Submission 8%
Decision 68%
Ding Meng is the more supportable pick because he has measurable UFC striking output and lands 3.8 significant strikes per minute at 45% accuracy, while Cam Nelson has no meaningful statistical sample. Meng's negative striking differential and unproven takedown defense make this a low-confidence for...