September 13, 2025
UFC Fight Night: Lopes vs. Silva
Card complete. GPT 5/13 (38%) · Claude 8/13 (62%)
All results
Both models agree 9 of 14 fights
Dusko Todorovic over Jose Medina
Both call KO/TKO
Claude 78%
GPT 81%
GPT 81%
Tatiana Suarez over Amanda Lemos
Both call Submission
Claude 78%
GPT 80%
GPT 80%
Alessandro Costa over Alden Coria
Claude 78%
GPT 78%
GPT 78%
Kelvin Gastelum over Dustin Stoltzfus
Both call Decision
Claude 72%
GPT 78%
GPT 78%
Zachary Reese over Sedriques Dumas
Both call Submission
Claude 72%
GPT 71%
GPT 71%
Montse Rendon over Alice Pereira
Both call Decision
Claude 65%
GPT 75%
GPT 75%
Diego Ferreira over Alexander Hernandez
Both call Decision
Claude 72%
GPT 67%
GPT 67%
Jean Silva over Diego Lopes
Claude 62%
GPT 67%
GPT 67%
Jared Gordon over Rafa Garcia
Both call Decision
Claude 58%
GPT 70%
GPT 70%
Double locks: both at 75% or higher 3 fights
Dusko Todorovic over Jose Medina
Both call KO/TKO
Claude 78%
GPT 81%
GPT 81%
Tatiana Suarez over Amanda Lemos
Both call Submission
Claude 78%
GPT 80%
GPT 80%
Alessandro Costa over Alden Coria
Claude 78%
GPT 78%
GPT 78%
Build your own list 9 match
Dusko Todorovic over Jose Medina
Both call KO/TKO
Claude 78%
GPT 81%
GPT 81%
Tatiana Suarez over Amanda Lemos
Both call Submission
Claude 78%
GPT 80%
GPT 80%
Alessandro Costa over Alden Coria
Claude 78%
GPT 78%
GPT 78%
Kelvin Gastelum over Dustin Stoltzfus
Both call Decision
Claude 72%
GPT 78%
GPT 78%
Zachary Reese over Sedriques Dumas
Both call Submission
Claude 72%
GPT 71%
GPT 71%
Montse Rendon over Alice Pereira
Both call Decision
Claude 65%
GPT 75%
GPT 75%
Diego Ferreira over Alexander Hernandez
Both call Decision
Claude 72%
GPT 67%
GPT 67%
Jean Silva over Diego Lopes
Claude 62%
GPT 67%
GPT 67%
Jared Gordon over Rafa Garcia
Both call Decision
Claude 58%
GPT 70%
GPT 70%
Win confidence is the model's probability that its pick wins: 55 to 64 is a shrug, 65 to 74 is confident, 75 and up is the model betting its reputation.
KO/TKO, Submission, Decision is how the model splits the ways the fight ends, out of 100.
Odds are the sportsbook moneyline with the bookmaker margin removed, so the two percentages sum to 100. When a model's confidence beats the market's implied number, that gap is the value.
Elo is an opponent adjusted rating built from every UFC fight since 1994. Click any Elo number on the card for the full explanation, including what the star means.
FINAL: Diego Lopes by KO/TKO Punches
Lopes LWWWW 154d out Silva WWWWW 154d out last 5
Diego Lopes last fought 154 days ago
L
vs Alexander Volkanovski · U-DEC2025-04-12
W
vs Sodiq Yusuff · KO/TKO2024-04-13
W
vs Brian Ortega · U-DEC2024-03-30
W
vs Dan Ige · U-DEC2024-01-27
W
vs Pat Sabatini · KO/TKO2023-11-11
Jean Silva last fought 154 days ago
W
vs Bryce Mitchell · SUB Guillotine Choke2025-04-12
W
vs Melsik Baghdasaryan · KO/TKO Punch2025-02-22
W
vs Drew Dober · KO/TKO2024-02-03
W
vs Charles Jourdain · KO/TKO2024-01-27
W
vs Westin Wilson · KO/TKO2024-01-13
Claude MISS
Jean Silva
62%win confidence
KO/TKO 48%
Submission 22%
Decision 30%
Silva's superior striking volume (5.37 vs 4.2 SLPM) and defensive efficiency (57% vs 50%) create a significant advantage in this striker vs submission specialist matchup. Lopes' 72" reach gives him 3 inches, but Silva's 100% win rate with 5 consecutive KO/TKO victories shows elite finishing ability....
GPT MISS
Jean Silva
67%win confidence
KO/TKO 20%
Submission 13%
Decision 67%
Jean Silva's higher striking volume, superior striking defense, and excellent takedown defense should allow him to control the pace and range of the fight. Lopes has a dangerous submission game, but Silva's 80% takedown defense and zero submissions allowed indicate he can likely keep the fight stand...
FINAL: David Martinez by U-DEC
Font WWLLW 202d out Martinez W 168d out last 5
Rob Font last fought 202 days ago
W
vs Jean Matsumoto · S-DEC2025-02-22
W
vs Kyler Phillips · U-DEC2024-04-27
L
vs Deiveson Figueiredo · U-DEC2023-12-02
L
vs Cory Sandhagen · U-DEC2023-08-05
W
vs Adrian Yanez · KO/TKO2023-04-08
David Martinez last fought 168 days ago
W
vs Saimon Oliveira · KO/TKO Knee2025-03-29
Claude MISS
Rob Font
71%win confidence
KO/TKO 25%
Submission 8%
Decision 67%
Font's significant experience advantage (19 UFC fights vs Martinez's debut) combined with his 5-inch reach advantage creates a clear path to victory. Font's recent form shows 3-2 in last 5 with quality opposition, while Martinez lacks any UFC-level data. Font's balanced striking (5.44 SLPM) and impr...
GPT HIT
David Martinez
67%win confidence
KO/TKO 16%
Submission 2%
Decision 82%
Martinez holds statistical advantages in striking accuracy, defensive metrics, and takedown defense. Font's volume is slightly higher, but his takedown threat is minimal and his takedown accuracy is low versus Martinez's perfect takedown defense. Martinez absorbs fewer strikes per minute and has a s...
FINAL: Rafa Garcia by KO/TKO Elbows
Garcia WLWWL 168d out Gordon WLWLL 119d out last 5
Rafa Garcia last fought 168 days ago
W
vs Vinc Pichel · U-DEC2025-03-29
L
vs Grant Dawson · KO/TKO2024-04-27
W
vs Clay Guida · U-DEC2023-04-15
W
vs Maheshate · U-DEC2022-12-17
L
vs Drakkar Klose · U-DEC2022-07-30
Jared Gordon last fought 119 days ago
W
vs Thiago Moises · KO/TKO Punch2025-05-17
L
vs Nasrat Haqparast · S-DEC2024-01-20
W
vs Mark Madsen · KO/TKO2023-11-11
L
vs Bobby Green · CNC2023-04-22
L
vs Paddy Pimblett · U-DEC2022-12-10
Claude MISS
Jared Gordon
58%win confidence
KO/TKO 28%
Submission 15%
Decision 57%
Gordon's striking volume advantage (5.75 vs 3.97 SLPM) and superior accuracy (55% vs 42%) create consistent scoring opportunities. While Garcia averages 3.38 takedowns per fight, his 44% accuracy against Gordon's 62% defense suggests limited success. Common opponent analysis shows both lost to Grant...
GPT MISS
Jared Gordon
70%win confidence
KO/TKO 10%
Submission 5%
Decision 85%
Jared Gordon holds significant advantages in striking volume, accuracy, and striking differential. Garcia is more wrestling-oriented with better takedown stats and defense, but Gordon's superior output and overall striking effectiveness make him likely to outpoint Garcia over three rounds. Gordon's ...
FINAL: Kelvin Gastelum by U-DEC
Gastelum LWLWL 98d out Stoltzfus LLLWL 119d out last 5
Kelvin Gastelum last fought 98 days ago
L
vs Joe Pyfer · U-DEC2025-06-07
W
vs Daniel Rodriguez · U-DEC2024-01-20
L
vs Sean Brady · SUB2023-12-02
W
vs Chris Curtis · U-DEC2023-04-08
L
vs Jared Cannonier · U-DEC2021-08-21
Dustin Stoltzfus last fought 119 days ago
L
vs Nursulton Ruziboev · U-DEC2025-05-17
L
vs win · 2024-11-02
L
vs Brunno Ferreira · KO/TKO2024-01-06
W
vs Punahele Soriano · SUB2023-12-02
L
vs Abus Magomedov · KO/TKO2022-09-03
Claude HIT
Kelvin Gastelum
72%win confidence
KO/TKO 28%
Submission 12%
Decision 60%
Gastelum's superior striking defense (57% vs 47%) and recent form momentum give him a clear edge. Stoltzfus is on a 3-fight losing streak with 2 KO/TKO losses, indicating declining durability. Gastelum's southpaw stance creates awkward angles against Stoltzfus's orthodox approach, and his experience...
GPT HIT
Kelvin Gastelum
78%win confidence
KO/TKO 18%
Submission 7%
Decision 75%
Gastelum holds a significant edge in striking defense (57% vs 47%) and has consistently faced higher-tier opposition. While Stoltzfus averages more takedowns and submissions, his takedown accuracy and defense are both lower than Gastelum's historical defensive metrics. Gastelum's durability, higher ...
FINAL: Alexander Hernandez by KO/TKO Punches
Hernandez WWWLL 28d out Ferreira LWWLL 237d out last 5
Alexander Hernandez last fought 28 days ago
W
vs Chase Hooper · KO/TKO Punch2025-08-16
W
vs Kurt Holobaugh · U-DEC2025-03-15
W
vs Austin Hubbard · S-DEC2024-04-13
L
vs Damon Jackson · S-DEC2024-04-06
L
vs Bill Algeo · U-DEC2023-10-07
Diego Ferreira last fought 237 days ago
L
vs Grant Dawson · U-DEC2025-01-18
W
vs Mateusz Rebecki · KO/TKO2023-12-16
W
vs Michael Johnson · KO/TKO2023-05-20
L
vs Mateusz Gamrot · KO/TKO2021-12-18
L
vs Gregor Gillespie · KO/TKO2021-05-08
Claude MISS
Diego Ferreira
72%win confidence
KO/TKO 35%
Submission 15%
Decision 50%
Ferreira's superior striking volume (5.04 vs 4.38 SLPM) and defensive metrics create a significant advantage. His recent 3-fight KO streak shows improved power, while Hernandez's frequent weight class changes (3 in recent fights) suggest potential conditioning issues. Ferreira's 74-inch reach advant...
GPT MISS
Diego Ferreira
67%win confidence
KO/TKO 12%
Submission 18%
Decision 70%
Ferreira's higher striking volume, superior strike differential (+1.61 vs -0.24), and greater submission threat (0.6 subs per fight vs 0.1) provide clear statistical advantages. While Hernandez has better takedown defense (71% vs 60%) and a notable win over a shared opponent, Ferreira's ability to a...
FINAL: Santiago Luna by KO/TKO Punch
Luna Le WLL 133d out last 5
Santiago Luna no UFC fights on record
Quang Le last fought 133 days ago
W
vs Gaston Bolanos · SUB Rear Naked Choke2025-05-03
L
vs Xiao Long · 2024-11-23
L
vs Chris Gutierrez · U-DEC2024-03-02
Claude HIT
Santiago Luna
58%win confidence
KO/TKO 25%
Submission 20%
Decision 55%
Despite Luna's lack of UFC data, Le's concerning statistics (23% striking accuracy, 24% defense, 0-3 recent record) suggest severe technical deficiencies. Luna's youth advantage (20 vs 33 years old) and orthodox stance matching indicate he can exploit Le's poor defensive metrics. Le's 18% takedown a...
GPT MISS
Quang Le
60%win confidence
KO/TKO 10%
Submission 10%
Decision 80%
Quang Le has limited but existent UFC-level data, showing moderate offensive wrestling output (2 takedowns per fight) and slightly higher striking volume than zero-data debutant Santiago Luna. While Le's defensive metrics are poor (24% striking defense, 0% takedown defense) and his negative striking...
FINAL: Dusko Todorovic by SUB Rear Naked Choke
Medina Todorovic LWLWL 910d out last 5
Jose Medina no UFC fights on record
Dusko Todorovic last fought 910 days ago, long layoff
L
vs Christian Leroy Duncan · KO/TKO2023-03-18
W
vs Jordan Wright · KO/TKO2022-10-15
L
vs Chidi Njokuani · KO/TKO2022-05-21
W
vs Maki Pitolo · KO/TKO2021-12-04
L
vs Gregory Rodrigues · U-DEC2021-06-05
Claude HIT
Dusko Todorovic
78%win confidence
KO/TKO 65%
Submission 10%
Decision 25%
Todorovic's massive striking advantages (5.54 vs 1.6 SLPM, 57% vs 26% accuracy) combined with recent KO power make this a severe mismatch. Medina's 0% striking defense and -3.27 differential indicate extreme defensive liabilities. Todorovic's 4 finishes in 5 recent fights, with 3 KOs, align perfectl...
GPT HIT
Dusko Todorovic
81%win confidence
KO/TKO 65%
Submission 5%
Decision 30%
Dusko Todorovic holds major statistical advantages in striking volume, accuracy, and defensive efficiency. Medina's extremely low output, poor striking defense, and abysmal takedown defense (14%) make him highly vulnerable to Todorovic's aggressive and accurate offense. While Todorovic is hittable h...
FINAL: Joaquim Silva by S-DEC
Puelles LLWWW 566d out Silva LWLWL 643d out last 5
Claudio Puelles last fought 566 days ago, long layoff
L
vs Fares Ziam · S-DEC2024-02-24
L
vs Dan Hooker · KO/TKO2022-11-12
W
vs Clay Guida · SUB2022-04-23
W
vs Chris Gruetzemacher · SUB2021-12-04
W
vs Jordan Leavitt · U-DEC2021-06-05
Joaquim Silva last fought 643 days ago, long layoff
L
vs Drakkar Klose · U-DEC2023-12-09
W
vs Clay Guida · U-DEC2023-12-02
L
vs Arman Tsarukyan · KO/TKO2023-06-17
W
vs Jesse Ronson · KO/TKO2022-10-01
L
vs Ricky Glenn · KO/TKO2021-06-19
Claude HIT
Joaquim Silva
62%win confidence
KO/TKO 25%
Submission 20%
Decision 55%
Silva's significant striking volume advantage (3.66 vs 1.56 SLPM) and superior striking defense (53% vs 46%) should control the standup exchanges. While Puelles has the grappling edge with 3.17 takedowns per fight, Silva's 69% takedown defense and ability to scramble back to his feet will limit cont...
GPT MISS
Claudio Puelles
62%win confidence
KO/TKO 8%
Submission 54%
Decision 38%
Puelles has a significant grappling advantage with much higher takedown and submission averages. While Silva is more active on the feet and has a reach edge, he absorbs more strikes than he lands and has historically struggled with strong grapplers. Puelles' clear path to victory is to get the fight...
FINAL: Tatiana Suarez by U-DEC
Suarez LWWWW 216d out Lemos WWLLW 188d out last 5
Tatiana Suarez last fought 216 days ago
L
vs Zhang Weili · U-DEC2025-02-08
W
vs Jessica Andrade · SUB2023-08-05
W
vs Montana De La Rosa · SUB2023-02-25
W
vs Nina Nunes · U-DEC2019-06-08
W
vs Carla Esparza · KO/TKO2018-09-08
Amanda Lemos last fought 188 days ago
W
vs Iasmin Lucindo · U-DEC2025-03-08
W
vs Mackenzie Dern · U-DEC2024-02-17
L
vs Virna Jandiroba · SUB2024-02-10
L
vs Zhang Weili · U-DEC2023-08-19
W
vs Marina Rodriguez · KO/TKO2022-11-05
Claude HIT
Tatiana Suarez
78%win confidence
KO/TKO 15%
Submission 65%
Decision 20%
Suarez's elite wrestling (6.2 takedowns per fight at 61% accuracy) combined with her perfect takedown defense (100%) creates a nightmare matchup for Lemos. The common opponent analysis shows Suarez submitted Jessica Andrade while Lemos lost to her by submission, indicating a clear grappling hierarch...
GPT HIT
Tatiana Suarez
80%win confidence
KO/TKO 10%
Submission 55%
Decision 35%
Suarez holds a significant grappling edge, averaging 6.2 takedowns per fight with 61% accuracy and perfect takedown defense, while Lemos struggles to defend takedowns (61% TDDef). Suarez's striking is more accurate and defensively sound, and she has performed better against common opponents. Lemos i...
FINAL: Jesus Aguilar by U-DEC
Aguilar LWWWL 209d out Gurule L 161d out last 5
Jesus Aguilar last fought 209 days ago
L
vs Rafael Estevam · U-DEC2025-02-15
W
vs Stewart Nicoll · SUB2024-03-09
W
vs Mateus Mendonca · S-DEC2024-02-24
W
vs Shannon Ross · KO/TKO2023-07-08
L
vs Tatsuro Taira · SUB2023-02-04
Luis Gurule last fought 161 days ago
L
vs Ode Osbourne · KO/TKO Punch2025-04-05
Claude HIT
Jesus Aguilar
71%win confidence
KO/TKO 20%
Submission 60%
Decision 20%
Aguilar's exceptional submission game (1.8 subs per fight) against a striker with zero grappling offense creates a clear path to victory. Gurule's 50% takedown defense and lack of UFC experience (0% win rate) suggests vulnerability to Aguilar's wrestling. Aguilar's 4-fight win streak with 2 recent f...
GPT MISS
Luis Gurule
65%win confidence
KO/TKO 18%
Submission 12%
Decision 70%
Gurule's significant striking volume (7 SLpM) and solid accuracy (50%) present a high-paced threat against Aguilar, who is much less active offensively. Aguilar's grappling is a risk but his takedown accuracy is low (33%) and Gurule's takedown defense (50%) should be sufficient to keep the fight sta...
Reese WW 546d out Dumas LLWWW 154d out last 5
Zachary Reese last fought 546 days ago, long layoff
W
vs Jose Daniel Medina · U-DEC2024-03-16
W
vs Julian Marquez · KO/TKO2024-01-06
Sedriques Dumas last fought 154 days ago
L
vs Michal Oleksiejczuk · KO/TKO Punches2025-04-12
L
vs Nursulton Ruziboev · KO/TKO2024-03-30
W
vs Denis Tiuliulin · U-DEC2024-02-24
W
vs Abu Azaitar · U-DEC2023-10-21
W
vs Cody Brundage · U-DEC2023-06-24
Claude
Zachary Reese
72%win confidence
KO/TKO 25%
Submission 45%
Decision 30%
Reese's aggressive grappling approach (4.08 takedowns per fight, 2.5 submissions per fight) presents significant problems for Dumas, who has shown vulnerability on the ground with only 40% takedown defense. Reese's 6'4" frame and switch stance create unpredictable angles, while his recent KO victori...
GPT
Zachary Reese
71%win confidence
KO/TKO 12%
Submission 58%
Decision 30%
Reese possesses a significant grappling advantage, as indicated by his much higher takedown average (4.08 per fight vs 1.31), superior takedown accuracy (55% vs 35%), and an extremely high submission rate (2.5 per fight vs 0.3). Dumas has shown vulnerability in takedown defense (40%) and is particul...
FINAL: Alden Coria by KO/TKO Punches
Costa WLWL 643d out Coria last 5
Alessandro Costa last fought 643 days ago, long layoff
W
vs Kevin Borjas · KO/TKO2023-12-09
L
vs Steve Erceg · U-DEC2023-11-11
W
vs Jimmy Flick · KO/TKO2023-06-17
L
vs Amir Albazi · KO/TKO2022-12-17
Alden Coria no UFC fights on record
Claude MISS
Alessandro Costa
78%win confidence
KO/TKO 55%
Submission 10%
Decision 35%
Costa faces a UFC debutant in Coria who has no recorded statistics in the UFC database. Costa's recent form shows 3 KO/TKO finishes in his last 5 fights, demonstrating legitimate power at flyweight. His 90% takedown defense will likely neutralize any wrestling attempts from the inexperienced Coria. ...
GPT MISS
Alessandro Costa
78%win confidence
KO/TKO 18%
Submission 7%
Decision 75%
Costa has significant UFC experience and statistical advantages in striking and defensive grappling. Coria is making his UFC debut with no available high-level metrics, suggesting a large gap in proven ability and competition level. Costa's striking accuracy, output, and takedown defense should allo...
FINAL: Montse Rendon by S-DEC
Claude HIT
Montse Rendon
65%win confidence
KO/TKO 15%
Submission 20%
Decision 65%
Both fighters are making their UFC debuts, but Rendon shows more complete statistics including a 100% takedown defense and 54% takedown accuracy. The 16-year age difference (36 vs 19) suggests Rendon has significantly more overall MMA experience. Rendon's wrestling-heavy approach (3 takedowns per fi...
GPT HIT
Montse Rendon
75%win confidence
KO/TKO 10%
Submission 15%
Decision 75%
Montse Rendon has significant statistical advantages with proven UFC-level grappling and striking output, while Alice Pereira has no measurable UFC data. Rendon's takedown accuracy and defense suggest control, and her work rate is likely to edge rounds against an unknown quantity.
FINAL: Daniil Donchenko by KO/TKO Punches
Claude HIT
Daniil Donchenko
58%win confidence
KO/TKO 25%
Submission 20%
Decision 55%
This UFC debut matchup between two prospects lacks statistical data, making it a coin flip. Donchenko gets the slight edge due to his younger age (24 vs 27) suggesting potentially better athleticism and recovery. Both fighters share orthodox stances, making this a technical mirror match. The lack of...
GPT MISS
Rodrigo Sezinando
55%win confidence
KO/TKO 10%
Submission 10%
Decision 80%
With no UFC statistical data for either fighter, the analysis is based entirely on stylistic factors and presumed parity. Both fighters have balanced styles and no clear physical advantage, suggesting a competitive, closely contested fight likely to go the distance. In such debut or data-absent matc...