July 12, 2025
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Teixeira
Card complete. GPT 7/12 (58%) · Claude 6/12 (50%)
All results
Both models agree 9 of 12 fights
Mike Davis over Mitch Ramirez
Both call KO/TKO
Claude 82%
GPT 75%
GPT 75%
Steve Garcia over Calvin Kattar
Claude 75%
GPT 70%
GPT 70%
Junior Tafa over Tuco Tokkos
Claude 78%
GPT 65%
GPT 65%
Gabriel Bonfim over Stephen Thompson
Both call Submission
Claude 70%
GPT 70%
GPT 70%
Vitor Petrino over Austen Lane
Claude 72%
GPT 65%
GPT 65%
Chidi Njokuani over Jake Matthews
Both call Decision
Claude 65%
GPT 68%
GPT 68%
Kennedy Nzechukwu over Valter Walker
Claude 60%
GPT 70%
GPT 70%
Melissa Martinez over Fatima Kline
Both call Decision
Claude 68%
GPT 60%
GPT 60%
Chris Curtis over Max Griffin
Both call Decision
Claude 65%
GPT 60%
GPT 60%
Double locks: both at 75% or higher 1 fight
Mike Davis over Mitch Ramirez
Both call KO/TKO
Claude 82%
GPT 75%
GPT 75%
Build your own list 9 match
Mike Davis over Mitch Ramirez
Both call KO/TKO
Claude 82%
GPT 75%
GPT 75%
Steve Garcia over Calvin Kattar
Claude 75%
GPT 70%
GPT 70%
Junior Tafa over Tuco Tokkos
Claude 78%
GPT 65%
GPT 65%
Gabriel Bonfim over Stephen Thompson
Both call Submission
Claude 70%
GPT 70%
GPT 70%
Vitor Petrino over Austen Lane
Claude 72%
GPT 65%
GPT 65%
Chidi Njokuani over Jake Matthews
Both call Decision
Claude 65%
GPT 68%
GPT 68%
Kennedy Nzechukwu over Valter Walker
Claude 60%
GPT 70%
GPT 70%
Melissa Martinez over Fatima Kline
Both call Decision
Claude 68%
GPT 60%
GPT 60%
Chris Curtis over Max Griffin
Both call Decision
Claude 65%
GPT 60%
GPT 60%
Win confidence is the model's probability that its pick wins: 55 to 64 is a shrug, 65 to 74 is confident, 75 and up is the model betting its reputation.
KO/TKO, Submission, Decision is how the model splits the ways the fight ends, out of 100.
Odds are the sportsbook moneyline with the bookmaker margin removed, so the two percentages sum to 100. When a model's confidence beats the market's implied number, that gap is the value.
Elo is an opponent adjusted rating built from every UFC fight since 1994. Click any Elo number on the card for the full explanation, including what the star means.
FINAL: Derrick Lewis by KO/TKO Punches
Lewis WLWLL 573d out Teixeira W 153d out last 5
Derrick Lewis last fought 573 days ago, long layoff
W
vs Rodrigo Nascimento · KO/TKO2023-12-16
L
vs Jailton Almeida · U-DEC2023-11-04
W
vs Marcos Rogerio de Lima · KO/TKO2023-07-29
L
vs Serghei Spivac · SUB2023-02-04
L
vs Sergei Pavlovich · KO/TKO2022-07-30
Tallison Teixeira last fought 153 days ago
W
vs Justin Tafa · KO/TKO Elbow2025-02-08
Claude HIT
Derrick Lewis
65%win confidence
KO/TKO 65%
Submission 5%
Decision 30%
Lewis brings vastly superior UFC experience against a UFC debutant in Teixeira. While Teixeira shows impressive striking volume (14.87 SLPM), his defensive metrics (58% defense) suggest vulnerability to Lewis's one-punch knockout power. Lewis's recent form shows a moderate upward trend with two KO/T...
GPT MISS
Tallison Teixeira
75%win confidence
KO/TKO 70%
Submission 0%
Decision 30%
Teixeira's striking volume and accuracy outweigh Lewis's stats significantly, making him the likely winner via knockout or technical knockout.
FINAL: Gabriel Bonfim by S-DEC
Thompson LLWLL 455d out Bonfim WWLWW 146d out last 5
Stephen Thompson last fought 455 days ago, long layoff
L
vs Joaquin Buckley · KO/TKO2024-04-13
L
vs Shavkat Rakhmonov · SUB2023-12-16
W
vs Kevin Holland · KO/TKO2022-12-03
L
vs Belal Muhammad · U-DEC2021-12-18
L
vs Gilbert Burns · U-DEC2021-07-10
Gabriel Bonfim last fought 146 days ago
W
vs Khaos Williams · SUB D'Arce Choke2025-02-15
W
vs Ange Loosa · U-DEC2024-02-03
L
vs Nicolas Dalby · KO/TKO2023-11-04
W
vs Trevin Giles · SUB2023-07-29
W
vs Mounir Lazzez · SUB2023-01-21
Claude HIT
Gabriel Bonfim
70%win confidence
KO/TKO 25%
Submission 55%
Decision 20%
Thompson enters this fight on a concerning downward trajectory with three consecutive losses, including back-to-back KO/TKO defeats. At 41 years old, his durability has visibly declined. Bonfim presents a dangerous stylistic challenge with superior grappling metrics (2.92 TDAvg vs Thompson's 0.25) a...
GPT HIT
Gabriel Bonfim
70%win confidence
KO/TKO 15%
Submission 50%
Decision 35%
Bonfim's superior takedown accuracy and submissions per fight suggest a ground-based strategy. While Thompson has decent takedown defense, Bonfim's high volume of strikes could create openings for takedowns, leading to submission opportunities.
FINAL: Steve Garcia by U-DEC
Kattar LLLLW 146d out Garcia WWWWW 476d out last 5
Calvin Kattar last fought 146 days ago
L
vs Youssef Zalal · U-DEC2025-02-15
L
vs Aljamain Sterling · U-DEC2024-04-13
L
vs Arnold Allen · KO/TKO2022-10-29
L
vs Josh Emmett · S-DEC2022-06-18
W
vs Giga Chikadze · U-DEC2022-01-15
Steve Garcia last fought 476 days ago, long layoff
W
vs Kyle Nelson · KO/TKO2024-03-23
W
vs SeungWoo Choi · KO/TKO2024-02-10
W
vs Melquizael Costa · KO/TKO2023-12-09
W
vs Shayilan Nuerdanbieke · KO/TKO2023-04-08
W
vs Chase Hooper · KO/TKO2022-10-29
Claude HIT
Steve Garcia
75%win confidence
KO/TKO 65%
Submission 10%
Decision 25%
Kattar enters this matchup on a troubling four-fight losing streak with diminishing performances, while Garcia rides a five-fight win streak with all recent victories coming via KO/TKO. The statistical comparison reveals Garcia's significant striking differential advantage (+2.7 vs Kattar's -1.99), ...
GPT HIT
Steve Garcia
70%win confidence
KO/TKO 30%
Submission 20%
Decision 50%
Steve Garcia has a higher striking accuracy, volume, and defensive efficiency. He also has a better win rate and more effective strike rate. The physical advantage due to height and reach differentials also favor Garcia.
FINAL: Morgan Charriere by KO/TKO Punch
Landwehr LWLWW 216d out Charriere LLWW 112d out last 5
Nate Landwehr last fought 216 days ago
L
vs Dooho Choi · KO/TKO Elbows2024-12-07
W
vs Jamall Emmers · KO/TKO2024-03-30
L
vs Dan Ige · U-DEC2023-06-10
W
vs Austin Lingo · SUB2023-03-25
W
vs David Onama · M-DEC2022-08-13
Morgan Charriere last fought 112 days ago
L
vs Nathaniel Wood · U-DEC2025-03-22
L
vs Chepe Mariscal · S-DEC2024-04-06
W
vs Gabriel Miranda · KO/TKO2024-04-06
W
vs Manolo Zecchini · KO/TKO2023-09-02
Claude MISS
Nate Landwehr
62%win confidence
KO/TKO 25%
Submission 15%
Decision 60%
Landwehr's significantly higher striking volume (6.25 SLPM vs Charriere's 3.87) will be the determining factor in this matchup. While both fighters have similar defensive metrics, Landwehr's ability to overwhelm opponents with pressure and output should allow him to edge rounds on the scorecards. Ch...
GPT HIT
Morgan Charriere
65%win confidence
KO/TKO 25%
Submission 20%
Decision 55%
Morgan Charriere has a higher striking accuracy and takedown accuracy which can be a game changer in this fight. Moreover, he has a higher win rate which signifies his ability to perform under pressure.
FINAL: Vitor Petrino by SUB Rear Naked Choke
Petrino LWLWW 209d out Lane LWLLW 132d out last 5
Vitor Petrino last fought 209 days ago
L
vs Dustin Jacoby · KO/TKO Punch2024-12-14
W
vs Tyson Pedro · U-DEC2024-03-02
L
vs Anthony Smith · SUB2023-12-09
W
vs Modestas Bukauskas · KO/TKO2023-11-04
W
vs Marcin Prachnio · SUB2023-07-08
Austen Lane last fought 132 days ago
L
vs Mario Pinto · KO/TKO Punch2025-03-01
W
vs Robelis Despaigne · U-DEC2024-04-27
L
vs Jhonata Diniz · KO/TKO2024-04-27
L
vs Justin Tafa · KO/TKO2023-09-09
W
vs Justin Tafa · CNC2023-06-24
Claude HIT
Vitor Petrino
72%win confidence
KO/TKO 55%
Submission 20%
Decision 25%
Petrino possesses significant technical advantages in this matchup despite moving up to heavyweight. His striking differential (+0.24) contrasts sharply with Lane's minimal differential (+0.03), and Petrino's grappling credentials (66% TD accuracy, 71% TD defense) give him multiple paths to victory....
GPT HIT
Vitor Petrino
65%win confidence
KO/TKO 30%
Submission 10%
Decision 60%
Vitor Petrino has superior grappling stats, with higher takedown accuracy, defense and average takedowns per fight. In addition, Petrino's striking defense is slightly better than Lane's. Given these stats, it's likely that Petrino will be able to control the fight and win by decision.
FINAL: Tuco Tokkos by SUB Arm Triangle
Tafa WLLWL 441d out Tokkos LL 209d out last 5
Junior Tafa last fought 441 days ago
W
vs Sean Sharaf · KO/TKO2024-04-27
L
vs Valter Walker · SUB2024-03-09
L
vs Marcos Rogerio de Lima · KO/TKO2024-02-17
W
vs Parker Porter · KO/TKO2023-08-26
L
vs Mohammed Usman · U-DEC2023-04-22
Tuco Tokkos last fought 209 days ago
L
vs Navajo Stirling · U-DEC2024-12-14
L
vs Oumar Sy · SUB2023-12-23
Claude MISS
Junior Tafa
78%win confidence
KO/TKO 70%
Submission 5%
Decision 25%
This matchup heavily favors Tafa's striking-centric approach against Tokkos' defensive vulnerabilities. Tafa maintains a positive striking differential (+0.52) while Tokkos has been absorbing significantly more strikes than he lands (-1.31). Tafa's recent form shows improvement with back-to-back KO ...
GPT MISS
Junior Tafa
65%win confidence
KO/TKO 30%
Submission 5%
Decision 65%
Given the data, Tafa's better striking defense and higher takedown defense seem to give him the edge. Although Tokkos has a perfect takedown accuracy, he may struggle to execute this against Tafa's solid takedown defense. Furthermore, Tafa has a higher significant strikes landed per minute (SLPM) an...
FINAL: Chris Curtis by S-DEC
Griffin LWLWL 216d out Curtis LLWLL 181d out last 5
Max Griffin last fought 216 days ago
L
vs Michael Chiesa · SUB Rear Naked Choke2024-12-07
W
vs Jeremiah Wells · S-DEC2024-02-10
L
vs Michael Morales · U-DEC2023-07-01
W
vs Tim Means · S-DEC2022-10-29
L
vs Neil Magny · S-DEC2022-03-26
Chris Curtis last fought 181 days ago
L
vs Roman Kopylov · KO/TKO Kick2025-01-11
L
vs Brendan Allen · S-DEC2024-04-06
W
vs Marc-Andre Barriault · S-DEC2024-01-20
L
vs Nassourdine Imavov · CNC2023-06-10
L
vs Kelvin Gastelum · U-DEC2023-04-08
Claude HIT
Chris Curtis
65%win confidence
KO/TKO 25%
Submission 10%
Decision 65%
This matchup features Curtis dropping to welterweight against the veteran Griffin in what projects as a primarily striking affair. Curtis brings superior volume (5.76 SLPM vs Griffin's 3.92) and slightly better striking accuracy (51% vs 49%), though both fighters have similar defensive metrics. Grif...
GPT HIT
Chris Curtis
60%win confidence
KO/TKO 30%
Submission 10%
Decision 60%
Based on the provided statistics, Chris Curtis has a slight edge over Max Griffin. Curtis has a higher volume of strikes per minute and better takedown defense, despite having a slightly lower striking accuracy and defense. Neither fighter has shown strong ground control or submission skills, sugges...
FINAL: Jake Matthews by SUB Rear Naked Choke
Matthews WWLWL 153d out Njokuani WWWLL 119d out last 5
Jake Matthews last fought 153 days ago
W
vs Francisco Prado · U-DEC2025-02-08
W
vs Phil Rowe · U-DEC2024-01-01
L
vs Michael Morales · U-DEC2023-11-18
W
vs Darrius Flowers · SUB2023-07-29
L
vs Matthew Semelsberger · U-DEC2022-12-17
Chidi Njokuani last fought 119 days ago
W
vs Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos · KO/TKO Knee2025-03-15
W
vs Jared Gooden · U-DEC2024-04-27
W
vs Rhys McKee · S-DEC2024-03-30
L
vs Michal Oleksiejczuk · KO/TKO2023-08-26
L
vs Albert Duraev · S-DEC2023-03-25
Claude MISS
Chidi Njokuani
65%win confidence
KO/TKO 25%
Submission 10%
Decision 65%
Njokuani holds significant striking advantages that should prove decisive in this matchup. His superior striking accuracy (63% vs Matthews' 44%) combined with higher volume (4.59 SLPM vs 3.38) gives him a clear edge in the standup exchanges. While Matthews has shown decent takedown ability (1.56 per...
GPT MISS
Chidi Njokuani
68%win confidence
KO/TKO 25%
Submission 10%
Decision 65%
Chidi Njokuani has a superior strike rate and defensive efficiency compared to Jake Matthews. He also holds a physical advantage in terms of height and reach, which could play a significant role in the fight. Although Matthews has a higher takedown average, Njokuani's takedown defense is solid, maki...
FINAL: Eduarda Moura by U-DEC
Murphy LWLWW 902d out Moura LLW 237d out last 5
Lauren Murphy last fought 902 days ago, long layoff
L
vs Jessica Andrade · U-DEC2023-01-21
W
vs Miesha Tate · U-DEC2022-07-16
L
vs Valentina Shevchenko · KO/TKO2021-09-25
W
vs Joanne Wood · S-DEC2021-06-12
W
vs Liliya Shakirova · SUB2020-10-24
Eduarda Moura last fought 237 days ago
L
vs Veronica Hardy · 2024-11-16
L
vs Denise Gomes · S-DEC2024-01-06
W
vs Montserrat Conejo Ruiz · KO/TKO2023-11-04
Claude MISS
Lauren Murphy
70%win confidence
KO/TKO 15%
Submission 10%
Decision 75%
Despite Murphy's negative striking differential (-1.20) and defensive vulnerabilities, her experience and veteran savvy should overcome Moura's inconsistency. Murphy's striking volume (4.05 SLPM) significantly outpaces Moura's (3.09), which will be crucial in a standup battle. While Moura shows impr...
GPT HIT
Eduarda Moura
70%win confidence
KO/TKO 20%
Submission 10%
Decision 70%
Moura has a superior striking accuracy and takedown average, which could allow her to control the pace of the fight and rack up points on the judges' scorecards.
FINAL: Valter Walker by SUB Heel Hook
Nzechukwu WLLWW 216d out Walker WLW 146d out last 5
Kennedy Nzechukwu last fought 216 days ago
W
vs Lukasz Brzeski · KO/TKO Punch2024-12-07
L
vs Ovince Saint Preux · S-DEC2024-03-16
L
vs Dustin Jacoby · KO/TKO2023-08-05
W
vs Devin Clark · SUB2023-05-06
W
vs Ion Cutelaba · KO/TKO2022-11-19
Valter Walker last fought 146 days ago
W
vs Don'Tale Mayes · SUB Heel Hook2025-02-15
L
vs Lukasz Brzeski · U-DEC2024-04-06
W
vs Junior Tafa · SUB2024-03-09
Claude MISS
Kennedy Nzechukwu
60%win confidence
KO/TKO 55%
Submission 10%
Decision 35%
This heavyweight clash presents a classic striker vs. grappler matchup. Nzechukwu's striking advantages are substantial - he lands 5.34 significant strikes per minute compared to Walker's 1.86, with better defensive metrics (51% vs 42%). While Walker shows impressive grappling credentials with 4.52 ...
GPT MISS
Kennedy Nzechukwu
70%win confidence
KO/TKO 30%
Submission 10%
Decision 60%
Kennedy Nzechukwu has a significantly higher significant strikes landed per minute rate and a higher striking accuracy. Even though Valter Walker has a higher takedown average, Nzechukwu has an excellent takedown defense. This fight is likely to be primarily contested on the feet, where Nzechukwu ha...
FINAL: Mike Davis by KO/TKO Punches
Ramirez L 483d out Davis LWWWW 160d out last 5
Mitch Ramirez last fought 483 days ago, long layoff
L
vs Thiago Moises · KO/TKO2024-03-16
Mike Davis last fought 160 days ago
L
vs Fares Ziam · U-DEC2025-02-01
W
vs Natan Levy · SUB2024-03-16
W
vs Viacheslav Borshchev · U-DEC2022-10-01
W
vs Mason Jones · U-DEC2021-01-20
W
vs Thomas Gifford · KO/TKO2019-10-12
Claude HIT
Mike Davis
82%win confidence
KO/TKO 65%
Submission 20%
Decision 15%
Davis holds significant advantages across all key metrics. His striking volume (5.35 SLPM vs Ramirez's 2.37) gives him a massive output edge, while his grappling superiority (2.77 TDAvg vs 0.91) allows him to dictate where the fight takes place. Ramirez's 0% TDD is particularly concerning against Da...
GPT HIT
Mike Davis
75%win confidence
KO/TKO 70%
Submission 20%
Decision 10%
Mike Davis has a higher strike volume and accuracy, better defensive efficiency and a greater takedown average. Furthermore, Mitch Ramirez's takedown defense is poor, which could be exploited by Davis.
FINAL: Fatima Kline by KO/TKO Kick
Kline WL 181d out Martinez WL 441d out last 5
Fatima Kline last fought 181 days ago
W
vs Viktoriia Dudakova · KO/TKO Elbows2025-01-11
L
vs Jasmine Jasudavicius · U-DEC2024-02-03
Melissa Martinez last fought 441 days ago
W
vs Alice Ardelean · U-DEC2024-04-27
L
vs Elise Reed · U-DEC2022-09-10
Claude MISS
Melissa Martinez
68%win confidence
KO/TKO 15%
Submission 10%
Decision 75%
Martinez brings superior striking volume (3.9 SLPM vs Kline's 2.6) with better accuracy (52% vs 48%), giving her a significant edge in striking exchanges. While Kline has shown better takedown accuracy (100% vs 50%), Martinez's higher activity rate and southpaw stance will create angles that neutral...
GPT MISS
Melissa Martinez
60%win confidence
KO/TKO 20%
Submission 10%
Decision 70%
Melissa Martinez has a higher significant strikes landed per minute (SLPM) and striking accuracy than Fatima Kline, indicating she may have the upper hand in stand-up exchanges. Despite both fighters having similar defensive efficiency, Melissa's higher volume of strikes could lead to more points in...