September 5, 2026
UFC Fight Night: Hooker vs. Parnasse
Card complete. Claude 8/14 (57%) · GPT 8/14 (57%)
All results
Both models agree 12 of 14 fights
Nathaniel Wood over Pavel Andrusca
Both call Decision
Claude 65%
GPT 78%
GPT 78%
Mario Pinto over Ryan Spann
Both call KO/TKO
Claude 66%
GPT 70%
GPT 70%
Kurtis Campbell over Trevor Peek
Claude 64%
GPT 69%
GPT 69%
Fares Ziam over Axel Sola
Both call Decision
Claude 63%
GPT 67%
GPT 67%
Luis Felipe Dias over Matthieu Duclos
Claude 58%
GPT 72%
GPT 72%
Salahdine Parnasse over Dan Hooker
Both call Decision
Claude 62%
GPT 67%
GPT 67%
Losene Keita over Muhammad Naimov
Both call KO/TKO
Claude 62%
GPT 67%
GPT 67%
Oumar Sy over Modestas Bukauskas
Both call Decision
Claude 60%
GPT 69%
GPT 69%
Michael Page over Nursulton Ruziboev
Both call Decision
Claude 58%
GPT 68%
GPT 68%
Daniil Donchenko over Punahele Soriano
Claude 63%
GPT 61%
GPT 61%
Felipe Lima over Morgan Charriere
Both call Decision
Claude 60%
GPT 62%
GPT 62%
Klaudia Sygula over Nora Cornolle
Both call Decision
Claude 58%
GPT 62%
GPT 62%
Double locks: both at 75% or higher 0 fights
Nothing clears the 75% bar from both models. The genie is hedging tonight.
Build your own list 12 match
Nathaniel Wood over Pavel Andrusca
Both call Decision
Claude 65%
GPT 78%
GPT 78%
Mario Pinto over Ryan Spann
Both call KO/TKO
Claude 66%
GPT 70%
GPT 70%
Kurtis Campbell over Trevor Peek
Claude 64%
GPT 69%
GPT 69%
Fares Ziam over Axel Sola
Both call Decision
Claude 63%
GPT 67%
GPT 67%
Luis Felipe Dias over Matthieu Duclos
Claude 58%
GPT 72%
GPT 72%
Salahdine Parnasse over Dan Hooker
Both call Decision
Claude 62%
GPT 67%
GPT 67%
Losene Keita over Muhammad Naimov
Both call KO/TKO
Claude 62%
GPT 67%
GPT 67%
Oumar Sy over Modestas Bukauskas
Both call Decision
Claude 60%
GPT 69%
GPT 69%
Michael Page over Nursulton Ruziboev
Both call Decision
Claude 58%
GPT 68%
GPT 68%
Daniil Donchenko over Punahele Soriano
Claude 63%
GPT 61%
GPT 61%
Felipe Lima over Morgan Charriere
Both call Decision
Claude 60%
GPT 62%
GPT 62%
Klaudia Sygula over Nora Cornolle
Both call Decision
Claude 58%
GPT 62%
GPT 62%
Win confidence is the model's probability that its pick wins: 55 to 64 is a shrug, 65 to 74 is confident, 75 and up is the model betting its reputation.
KO/TKO, Submission, Decision is how the model splits the ways the fight ends, out of 100.
Odds are the sportsbook moneyline with the bookmaker margin removed, so the two percentages sum to 100. When a model's confidence beats the market's implied number, that gap is the value.
Elo is an opponent adjusted rating built from every UFC fight since 1994. Click any Elo number on the card for the full explanation, including what the star means.
FINAL: Salahdine Parnasse by KO/TKO Punch
Hooker LLWWW 216d out Parnasse last 5
Dan Hooker last fought 216 days ago
L
vs Benoit Saint Denis · KO/TKO Punches2026-01-31
L
vs Arman Tsarukyan · SUB Arm Triangle2025-11-22
W
vs Mateusz Gamrot · S-DEC2024-03-09
W
vs Jalin Turner · S-DEC2023-07-08
W
vs Claudio Puelles · KO/TKO2022-11-12
Salahdine Parnasse no UFC fights on record
Claude HIT
Salahdine Parnasse
62%win confidence
KO/TKO 20%
Submission 15%
Decision 65%
This is a classic crossroads booking: a 36-year-old Hooker riding consecutive stoppage losses against a 28-year-old debutant who is 23-2 and was the dominant two-division champion in KSW, Europe's top regional promotion. Parnasse has no UFC data on file, so every statistical field must be treated as...
GPT HIT
Salahdine Parnasse
67%win confidence
KO/TKO 27%
Submission 12%
Decision 61%
Parnasse's speed, southpaw movement, kicking variety and opportunistic wrestling should let him score at multiple ranges while limiting Hooker's preferred pressure exchanges. Hooker owns the UFC experience, likely size advantage and strong durability, but his 4.94 significant strikes absorbed per mi...
FINAL: Axel Sola by KO/TKO Punch
Fares Ziam -144 (56.2661313449957%)
Axel Sola +118 (43.7338686550043%)
fanduel line
Ziam WWWWW 272d out Sola W 364d out last 5
Fares Ziam last fought 272 days ago
W
vs Nazim Sadykhov · KO/TKO Punches2025-12-06
W
vs Mike Davis · U-DEC2025-02-01
W
vs Matt Frevola · KO/TKO2024-04-06
W
vs Claudio Puelles · S-DEC2024-02-24
W
vs Jai Herbert · U-DEC2023-07-22
Axel Sola last fought 364 days ago
W
vs Rhys McKee · KO/TKO Punch2025-09-06
Claude MISS
Fares Ziam
63%win confidence
KO/TKO 22%
Submission 10%
Decision 68%
An all-French lightweight bout where the market (-144, 56% de-vigged) and Elo (59% for Ziam, 1585 vs a provisional 1521) point the same direction, and I agree with both. Ziam is the far more proven commodity: 8-2 in the UFC with wins over Frevola, Davis, Sadykhov and Puelles, built on a low-output b...
GPT MISS
Fares Ziam
67%win confidence
KO/TKO 15%
Submission 10%
Decision 75%
Ziam's superior defensive striking profile and proven efficiency favor him in a competitive, technical fight. He absorbs only 1.58 significant strikes per minute while maintaining a +1.10 striking differential, compared with Sola's nearly neutral -0.03 differential and 4.53 strikes absorbed per minu...
FINAL: Michael Page by U-DEC
Page WWWL 385d out Ruziboev WWWLW 476d out last 5
Michael Page last fought 385 days ago
W
vs Jared Cannonier · U-DEC2025-08-16
W
vs Shara Magomedov · U-DEC2025-02-01
W
vs Kevin Holland · U-DEC2024-03-09
L
vs Ian Machado Garry · U-DEC2024-01-27
Nursulton Ruziboev last fought 476 days ago, long layoff
W
vs Dustin Stoltzfus · U-DEC2025-05-17
W
vs Eric McConico · KO/TKO Punch2025-02-22
W
vs Sedriques Dumas · KO/TKO2024-03-30
L
vs Joaquin Buckley · U-DEC2023-12-16
W
vs Brunno Ferreira · KO/TKO2023-07-01
Claude HIT
Michael Page
58%win confidence
KO/TKO 25%
Submission 8%
Decision 67%
Elo marginally favors Ruziboev (52-48), but Page's rating is provisional off only 4 rated fights and badly undersells the quality of his run - decisions over Jared Cannonier, Shara Magomedov and Kevin Holland are materially stronger scalps than Ruziboev's wins over Stoltzfus, McConico, Dumas and Pul...
GPT HIT
Michael Page
68%win confidence
KO/TKO 29%
Submission 11%
Decision 60%
Page's long-range, low-volume counterstriking projects well against Ruziboev's more hittable approach. Page holds advantages in striking accuracy (58% to 46%), defense (62% to 49%), absorption (1.51 to 2.68 significant strikes per minute), and reach. Ruziboev's best route is sustained grappling, but...
FINAL: Kurtis Campbell by SUB Rear Naked Choke
Kurtis Campbell -370 (74.1829167811041%)
Trevor Peek +265 (25.817083218895903%)
fanduel line
Campbell Peek LLWLW 882d out last 5
Kurtis Campbell no UFC fights on record
Trevor Peek last fought 882 days ago, long layoff
L
vs Charlie Campbell · U-DEC2024-04-06
L
vs Yanal Ashmouz · U-DEC2024-03-23
W
vs Mohammad Yahya · U-DEC2023-10-21
L
vs Chepe Mariscal · U-DEC2023-06-24
W
vs Erick Gonzalez · KO/TKO2023-02-25
Claude HIT
Kurtis Campbell
64%win confidence
KO/TKO 42%
Submission 13%
Decision 45%
The market's -370 on Campbell despite his KO loss to Danny Silva in his debut tells you how the books view Peek's current state: a 722-day layoff, a two-fight losing skid, and a drop from lightweight to featherweight at age 31 after a career of brawling decisions. Peek's style - wild, chin-out press...
GPT HIT
Kurtis Campbell
69%win confidence
KO/TKO 18%
Submission 12%
Decision 70%
Campbell's major advantage is his wrestling volume, averaging 8.76 takedowns against Peek's modest 52% takedown defense. Peek is the more active and accurate striker, but his 43% striking defense and aggressive style create openings for level changes and prolonged control. Campbell's positive striki...
FINAL: Daniil Donchenko by U-DEC
Daniil Donchenko -215 (64.99222049344299%)
Punahele Soriano +172 (35.007779506557014%)
fanduel line
Donchenko WW 209d out Soriano WWWWL 195d out last 5
Daniil Donchenko last fought 209 days ago
W
vs Alex Morono · U-DEC2026-02-07
W
vs Rodrigo Sezinando · KO/TKO Punches2025-09-13
Punahele Soriano last fought 195 days ago
W
vs Ramiz Brahimaj · U-DEC2026-02-21
W
vs Nikolay Veretennikov · U-DEC2025-10-04
W
vs Uros Medic · KO/TKO Punch2025-01-11
W
vs Miguel Baeza · U-DEC2024-01-06
L
vs Dustin Stoltzfus · SUB2023-12-02
Claude HIT
Daniil Donchenko
63%win confidence
KO/TKO 38%
Submission 12%
Decision 50%
Elo calls this 50/50 while the market has Donchenko at 65%, but the Elo figure is provisional off only 2 rated UFC fights and lags a fast-rising 25-year-old prospect - his +46 trend, first-round KO of Sezinando, a clean decision over durable veteran Alex Morono, and a June 2026 KO of Berggren (three...
GPT HIT
Daniil Donchenko
61%win confidence
KO/TKO 36%
Submission 7%
Decision 57%
Donchenko is the less statistically documented fighter, but his cleaner, more mobile orthodox striking can exploit Soriano's 48% significant-strike defense and tendency to slow when forced into extended exchanges. Soriano carries the greater proven power, lands 4.89 significant strikes per minute at...
FINAL: Felipe Lima by U-DEC
Morgan Charriere +160 (36.58536585365854%)
Felipe Lima -200 (63.414634146341456%)
fanduel line
Charriere LWLLW 265d out Lima LWW 434d out last 5
Morgan Charriere last fought 265 days ago
L
vs Melquizael Costa · KO/TKO Kick2025-12-13
W
vs Nate Landwehr · KO/TKO Punch2025-07-12
L
vs Nathaniel Wood · U-DEC2025-03-22
L
vs Chepe Mariscal · S-DEC2024-04-06
W
vs Gabriel Miranda · KO/TKO2024-04-06
Felipe Lima last fought 434 days ago
L
vs Payton Talbott · U-DEC2025-06-28
W
vs Miles Johns · U-DEC2024-12-14
W
vs Muhammad Naimov · SUB2024-01-20
Claude HIT
Felipe Lima
60%win confidence
KO/TKO 22%
Submission 18%
Decision 60%
The market prices Lima at -200 (63% de-vigged) while opponent-adjusted Elo has this a virtual coin flip (51/49). That tension matters. Lima is the more well-rounded fighter: his 64% striking defense (vs Charriere's 53%), 85% takedown defense, and submission threat (0.7 SubAvg, RNC finish of Naimov) ...
GPT HIT
Felipe Lima
62%win confidence
KO/TKO 17%
Submission 18%
Decision 65%
Lima's superior striking defense, lower absorption rate, and slightly stronger takedown defense should help him neutralize Charriere's higher output and more accurate takedowns. Charriere can win minutes through pressure and volume, particularly with the Paris crowd behind him, but his negative stri...
FINAL: Losene Keita by KO/TKO Punch
Keita Naimov LWWWL 272d out last 5
Losene Keita no UFC fights on record
Muhammad Naimov last fought 272 days ago
L
vs Mairon Santos · KO/TKO Punches2025-12-06
W
vs Bogdan Grad · U-DEC2025-06-21
W
vs Kaan Ofli · U-DEC2025-02-01
W
vs Erik Silva · KO/TKO2024-02-24
L
vs Felipe Lima · SUB2024-01-20
Claude HIT
Losene Keita
62%win confidence
KO/TKO 40%
Submission 8%
Decision 52%
Keita's UFC statistical profile is a one-fight sample (split-decision loss to Nathaniel Wood in his debut), so his numbers must be treated as near-null - but his 16-2 overall record built as a two-division OKTAGON champion is meaningful pedigree, and the Wood loss was razor-thin against a legitimate...
GPT HIT
Losene Keita
67%win confidence
KO/TKO 49%
Submission 4%
Decision 47%
Keita is the faster and more dangerous striker, with advantages in output, accuracy, and striking defense. Naimov's wrestling is his clearest route to success, but his 30% takedown accuracy may struggle against Keita's reported 100% takedown defense. Naimov also absorbs more than he lands and owns o...
FINAL: Mario Pinto by KO/TKO Punches
Mario Pinto -295 (70.50037341299478%)
Ryan Spann +220 (29.499626587005228%)
fanduel line
Pinto WW 329d out Spann WWLWL 133d out last 5
Mario Pinto last fought 329 days ago
W
vs Jhonata Diniz · KO/TKO Punches2025-10-11
W
vs Austen Lane · KO/TKO Punch2025-03-01
Ryan Spann last fought 133 days ago
W
vs Marcus Buchecha · KO/TKO Punch2026-04-25
W
vs Lukasz Brzeski · SUB Guillotine Choke2025-07-19
L
vs Bogdan Guskov · KO/TKO2024-04-27
W
vs Ovince Saint Preux · SUB2024-04-13
L
vs Anthony Smith · S-DEC2023-08-26
Claude HIT
Mario Pinto
66%win confidence
KO/TKO 58%
Submission 7%
Decision 35%
This is a genuine market-vs-Elo tension: the book prices Pinto at 71% while opponent-adjusted Elo gives Spann 54%. I side closer to the market than Elo here, because Pinto's rating is provisional (2 rated fights) and structurally lags a 12-0 fighter on a steep upward trend (+49), while Spann's 1577 ...
GPT HIT
Mario Pinto
70%win confidence
KO/TKO 58%
Submission 17%
Decision 25%
Pinto projects as the more efficient and defensively reliable fighter. He lands with 69% accuracy, maintains a +0.92 striking differential, and absorbs 1.93 significant strikes per minute, while Spann has a -0.81 differential and absorbs 3.92 per minute with only 43% striking defense. Spann remains ...
FINAL: Modestas Bukauskas by KO/TKO Knee
Oumar Sy -215 (64.30999320190347%)
Modestas Bukauskas +164 (35.69000679809653%)
fanduel line
Sy WLWW 364d out Bukauskas LWWWW 223d out last 5
Oumar Sy last fought 364 days ago
W
vs Brendson Ribeiro · KO/TKO Punches2025-09-06
L
vs Alonzo Menifield · U-DEC2025-06-14
W
vs Da Woon Jung · U-DEC2024-04-06
W
vs Tuco Tokkos · SUB2023-12-23
Modestas Bukauskas last fought 223 days ago
L
vs Nikita Krylov · KO/TKO Punch2026-01-24
W
vs Paul Craig · KO/TKO Elbow2025-09-06
W
vs Ion Cutelaba · S-DEC2025-05-10
W
vs Rafael Cerqueira · KO/TKO Punches2025-02-22
W
vs Marcin Prachnio · SUB2024-02-17
Claude MISS
Oumar Sy
60%win confidence
KO/TKO 22%
Submission 13%
Decision 65%
The market prices Sy at 64% but the Elo model (53%) and the common-opponent thread both suggest this is much closer. Bukauskas beat Ion Cutelaba over three rounds in May 2025; Sy was submitted by the same Cutelaba in his last outing. That said, Sy's raw tools are the real edge here: a 7-inch reach a...
GPT MISS
Oumar Sy
69%win confidence
KO/TKO 25%
Submission 10%
Decision 65%
Sy has the stronger statistical profile, landing more while absorbing substantially less and holding advantages in accuracy, striking defense, and overall win rate. Bukauskas' 82% takedown defense should prevent prolonged control in some exchanges, but Sy's higher wrestling volume can still create c...
FINAL: Nora Cornolle by U-DEC
Cornolle LWLWW 195d out Sygula WW 209d out last 5
Nora Cornolle last fought 195 days ago
L
vs Joselyne Edwards · SUB Rear Naked Choke2026-02-21
W
vs Hailey Cowan · SUB Rear Naked Choke2025-04-12
L
vs Jacqueline Cavalcanti · S-DEC2024-04-06
W
vs Melissa Mullins · KO/TKO2024-04-06
W
vs Joselyne Edwards · U-DEC2023-09-02
Klaudia Sygula last fought 209 days ago
W
vs Priscila Cachoeira · U-DEC2026-02-07
W
vs Irina Alekseeva · U-DEC2025-06-21
Claude MISS
Klaudia Sygula
58%win confidence
KO/TKO 18%
Submission 10%
Decision 72%
No market line was provided, so this leans on Elo (52-48 Sygula) and trajectory. The common-opponent signal actually favors Cornolle - she KO'd Melissa Mullins with a knee, while Sygula was TKO'd by Mullins in her debut - but that Sygula loss is nearly two years old and she has clearly rebuilt since...
GPT MISS
Klaudia Sygula
62%win confidence
KO/TKO 24%
Submission 6%
Decision 70%
Sygula's substantially higher striking output and stronger positive strike differential give her the clearer path to winning rounds in a matchup likely to remain primarily on the feet. Cornolle is more accurate and may be dangerous in the clinch, but her low volume and 47% takedown defense could all...
FINAL: Matthieu Duclos by KO/TKO Punch
Matthieu Duclos -120 (52.17391304347826%)
Luis Felipe Dias +100 (47.82608695652174%)
fanduel line
Claude MISS
Luis Felipe Dias
58%win confidence
KO/TKO 25%
Submission 38%
Decision 37%
Both men are effectively UFC newcomers so statistical fields carry little weight, but the observable facts favor the underdog. Duclos enters off a 733-day layoff - more than double the ring-rust threshold - and his last appearance was a KO loss to Marco Tulio on DWCS in August 2024. Two years of ina...
GPT MISS
Luis Felipe Dias
72%win confidence
KO/TKO 14%
Submission 25%
Decision 61%
Dias has the more sustainable statistical profile, combining a positive striking differential with substantially better striking defense and a major grappling advantage. Duclos lands at higher volume but absorbs 6.81 significant strikes per minute and carries a -2.88 differential, making him vulnera...
FINAL: Fabia Sintes by U-DEC
Michael Aljarouj -148 (56.08443122255278%)
Fabia Sintes +114 (43.915568777447234%)
fanduel line
Claude MISS
Michael Aljarouj
58%win confidence
KO/TKO 25%
Submission 15%
Decision 60%
This is a double-debut flyweight bout with essentially no UFC statistical footprint for either man, so the analysis rests on the market line, records, and age. Aljarouj (13-3, 2 NC) carries a slightly deeper professional resume than Sintes (11-3) and is three years younger at 29 versus 32 - a meanin...
GPT HIT
Fabia Sintes
55%win confidence
KO/TKO 24%
Submission 18%
Decision 58%
The supplied dataset contains no usable striking, grappling, physical, or historical performance statistics for either fighter, and there are no common opponents. With the matchup described as stylistically balanced and physically mixed, there is insufficient evidence to project a reliable finishing...
FINAL: Delphine Benouaich by SUB Rear Naked Choke
Delphine Benouaich -162 (58.28822517990193%)
Sofia Montenegro +126 (41.71177482009807%)
fanduel line
Claude HIT
Delphine Benouaich
60%win confidence
KO/TKO 18%
Submission 14%
Decision 68%
Benouaich (7-2) gets the French homecoming in Paris against Montenegro (6-2), whose only trackable data point is a split-decision loss to Jeisla Chaves on DWCS in September 2025 followed by a 341-day layoff. That Contender Series tape is instructive: Montenegro landed 4.27 significant strikes per mi...
GPT MISS
Sofia Montenegro
58%win confidence
KO/TKO 17%
Submission 8%
Decision 75%
Montenegro is the more supportable pick because she has demonstrated measurable UFC-level output, strong recorded takedown defense, and some offensive wrestling. Her negative striking differential and 48% striking defense make this a low-confidence selection, while the absence of usable data for Ben...
FINAL: Pavel Andrusca by U-DEC
Wood WWWLW 315d out Andrusca last 5
Nathaniel Wood last fought 315 days ago
W
vs Jose Delgado · U-DEC2025-10-25
W
vs Morgan Charriere · U-DEC2025-03-22
W
vs Daniel Pineda · U-DEC2024-02-17
L
vs Muhammad Naimov · U-DEC2023-10-21
W
vs Andre Fili · U-DEC2023-07-22
Pavel Andrusca no UFC fights on record
Claude MISS
Nathaniel Wood
65%win confidence
KO/TKO 15%
Submission 8%
Decision 77%
This is the classic proven-veteran-versus-undefeated-prospect trap fight, and the data strongly backs the veteran. Wood is riding a four-fight win streak (Keita, Delgado, Charriere, Pineda) - all decisions, all against legitimate UFC featherweights, including a March 2026 split over the highly toute...
GPT MISS
Nathaniel Wood
78%win confidence
KO/TKO 22%
Submission 13%
Decision 65%
Wood is the substantially more proven UFC commodity and owns a strong statistical profile: 5.64 significant strikes landed per minute at 51% accuracy, a +1.39 striking differential, and 73% takedown defense. His pace, combination striking, and ability to mix in efficient takedowns should let him con...