June 21, 2025
UFC Fight Night: Hill vs. Rountree Jr.
Card complete. GPT 6/12 (50%) · Claude 6/12 (50%)
All results
Both models agree 10 of 12 fights
Irina Alekseeva over Klaudia Sygula
Claude 75%
GPT 85%
GPT 85%
Oban Elliott over Seokhyeon Ko
Both call Decision
Claude 75%
GPT 65%
GPT 65%
Tagir Ulanbekov over Azat Maksum
Claude 75%
GPT 65%
GPT 65%
Jamahal Hill over Khalil Rountree Jr.
Both call KO/TKO
Claude 65%
GPT 70%
GPT 70%
Nazim Sadykhov over Nikolas Motta
Claude 65%
GPT 70%
GPT 70%
JunYong Park over Ismail Naurdiev
Both call Decision
Claude 70%
GPT 65%
GPT 65%
Hamdy Abdelwahab over Mohammed Usman
Both call Decision
Claude 65%
GPT 70%
GPT 70%
Muhammad Naimov over Bogdan Grad
Claude 70%
GPT 60%
GPT 60%
Daria Zhelezniakova over Melissa Mullins
Both call Decision
Claude 65%
GPT 60%
GPT 60%
Ignacio Bahamondes over Rafael Fiziev
Both call Decision
Claude 60%
GPT 60%
GPT 60%
Double locks: both at 75% or higher 1 fight
Irina Alekseeva over Klaudia Sygula
Claude 75%
GPT 85%
GPT 85%
Build your own list 10 match
Irina Alekseeva over Klaudia Sygula
Claude 75%
GPT 85%
GPT 85%
Oban Elliott over Seokhyeon Ko
Both call Decision
Claude 75%
GPT 65%
GPT 65%
Tagir Ulanbekov over Azat Maksum
Claude 75%
GPT 65%
GPT 65%
Jamahal Hill over Khalil Rountree Jr.
Both call KO/TKO
Claude 65%
GPT 70%
GPT 70%
Nazim Sadykhov over Nikolas Motta
Claude 65%
GPT 70%
GPT 70%
JunYong Park over Ismail Naurdiev
Both call Decision
Claude 70%
GPT 65%
GPT 65%
Hamdy Abdelwahab over Mohammed Usman
Both call Decision
Claude 65%
GPT 70%
GPT 70%
Muhammad Naimov over Bogdan Grad
Claude 70%
GPT 60%
GPT 60%
Daria Zhelezniakova over Melissa Mullins
Both call Decision
Claude 65%
GPT 60%
GPT 60%
Ignacio Bahamondes over Rafael Fiziev
Both call Decision
Claude 60%
GPT 60%
GPT 60%
Win confidence is the model's probability that its pick wins: 55 to 64 is a shrug, 65 to 74 is confident, 75 and up is the model betting its reputation.
KO/TKO, Submission, Decision is how the model splits the ways the fight ends, out of 100.
Odds are the sportsbook moneyline with the bookmaker margin removed, so the two percentages sum to 100. When a model's confidence beats the market's implied number, that gap is the value.
Elo is an opponent adjusted rating built from every UFC fight since 1994. Click any Elo number on the card for the full explanation, including what the star means.
FINAL: Khalil Rountree Jr. by U-DEC
Hill LLWWW 153d out Jr. LWWWW 434d out last 5
Jamahal Hill last fought 153 days ago
L
vs Jiri Prochazka · KO/TKO Punches2025-01-18
L
vs Alex Pereira · KO/TKO2024-04-13
W
vs Glover Teixeira · U-DEC2023-01-21
W
vs Thiago Santos · KO/TKO2022-08-06
W
vs Johnny Walker · KO/TKO2022-02-19
Khalil Rountree Jr. last fought 434 days ago
L
vs Alex Pereira · KO/TKO2024-04-13
W
vs Anthony Smith · KO/TKO2023-12-09
W
vs Chris Daukaus · KO/TKO2023-08-12
W
vs Dustin Jacoby · S-DEC2022-10-29
W
vs Karl Roberson · KO/TKO2022-03-12
Claude MISS
Jamahal Hill
65%win confidence
KO/TKO 65%
Submission 5%
Decision 30%
Hill's superior striking accuracy (54% vs 38%) and significant strike differential (+3.67 vs -0.78) give him a clear technical edge in this matchup. Both fighters are southpaws with knockout power, but Hill's more efficient striking and 3-inch reach advantage will allow him to control distance more ...
GPT MISS
Jamahal Hill
70%win confidence
KO/TKO 60%
Submission 5%
Decision 35%
Jamahal Hill has a significantly higher striking volume (SLPM) and striking accuracy than Khalil Rountree Jr. Although both fighters have similar striking styles, Hill's superior defensive efficiency and takedown defense also gives him an edge in this matchup.
FINAL: Rafael Fiziev by U-DEC
Fiziev LLLWW 104d out Bahamondes WWWLW 104d out last 5
Rafael Fiziev last fought 104 days ago
L
vs Justin Gaethje · U-DEC2025-03-08
L
vs Mateusz Gamrot · KO/TKO2023-09-23
L
vs Justin Gaethje · M-DEC2023-03-18
W
vs Rafael Dos Anjos · KO/TKO2022-07-09
W
vs Brad Riddell · KO/TKO2021-12-04
Ignacio Bahamondes last fought 104 days ago
W
vs Jalin Turner · SUB Triangle Choke2025-03-08
W
vs Christos Giagos · KO/TKO2024-04-06
W
vs Manuel Torres · KO/TKO2024-03-30
L
vs Ludovit Klein · U-DEC2023-08-05
W
vs Trey Ogden · U-DEC2023-04-08
Claude MISS
Ignacio Bahamondes
60%win confidence
KO/TKO 35%
Submission 10%
Decision 55%
Bahamondes enters this fight with significant physical advantages (7-inch height and 4-inch reach) that will be crucial against Fiziev's pressure-heavy style. Bahamondes' striking volume (7.17 vs Fiziev's 4.9) and defensive metrics (57% vs 49%) give him a statistical edge in a matchup likely to rema...
GPT MISS
Ignacio Bahamondes
60%win confidence
KO/TKO 30%
Submission 10%
Decision 60%
Bahamondes has the striking volume advantage with an SLPM of 7.17 compared to Fiziev's 4.9. Despite Fiziev's higher takedown accuracy, Bahamondes has a strong takedown defense of 85%. Also, Bahamondes has the physical advantage with a reach and height advantage.
FINAL: Curtis Blaydes by S-DEC
Blaydes WLLWW 468d out Kuniev last 5
Curtis Blaydes last fought 468 days ago, long layoff
W
vs Jailton Almeida · KO/TKO2024-03-09
L
vs Tom Aspinall · KO/TKO2024-02-17
L
vs Sergei Pavlovich · KO/TKO2023-04-22
W
vs Tom Aspinall · KO/TKO2022-07-23
W
vs Chris Daukaus · KO/TKO2022-03-26
Rizvan Kuniev no UFC fights on record
Claude HIT
Curtis Blaydes
70%win confidence
KO/TKO 35%
Submission 10%
Decision 55%
Despite Kuniev's impressive statistical profile, his UFC experience is limited compared to Blaydes' extensive high-level competition. Blaydes' wrestling pedigree (5.69 takedowns per fight) will test Kuniev's perfect but unproven 100% takedown defense at the UFC level. While Kuniev shows better strik...
GPT MISS
Rizvan Kuniev
70%win confidence
KO/TKO 55%
Submission 0%
Decision 45%
Kuniev has a significant striking advantage in terms of both accuracy and volume, which could give him the upper hand in this matchup. His takedown defense is also superior, which could neutralize Blaydes' grappling strategy.
FINAL: Myktybek Orolbai by SUB Kimura
Musayev Orolbai WW 559d out last 5
Tofiq Musayev no UFC fights on record
Myktybek Orolbai last fought 559 days ago, long layoff
W
vs Elves Brener · U-DEC2023-12-09
W
vs Uros Medic · SUB2023-11-18
Claude MISS
Tofiq Musayev
68%win confidence
KO/TKO 55%
Submission 8%
Decision 37%
Despite limited UFC data on Musayev, his extensive background in RIZIN and ONE Championship showcases elite striking credentials with devastating power. Orolbai's high takedown rate (7.44 per fight) and submission attempts (0.6 per fight) signal a clear grappling-heavy approach, but his 44% takedown...
GPT HIT
Myktybek Orolbai
75%win confidence
KO/TKO 20%
Submission 15%
Decision 65%
Given the available stats, Myktybek Orolbai seems to have a significant advantage in terms of striking accuracy and takedowns per fight. Since there is no data available for Tofiq Musayev, it is difficult to make a detailed analysis. However, based on the information available, Orolbai appears to be...
FINAL: Nazim Sadykhov by KO/TKO Punches
Sadykhov WWWW 125d out Motta LWLLW 209d out last 5
Nazim Sadykhov last fought 125 days ago
W
vs Ismael Bonfim · KO/TKO2025-02-15
W
vs Viacheslav Borshchev · M-DEC2023-11-11
W
vs Terrance McKinney · SUB2023-07-15
W
vs Evan Elder · KO/TKO2023-02-18
Nikolas Motta last fought 209 days ago
L
vs Maheshate · 2024-11-23
W
vs Tom Nolan · KO/TKO2024-01-13
L
vs Trey Ogden · Overturned2023-11-18
L
vs Manuel Torres · KO/TKO2023-06-17
W
vs Cameron VanCamp · KO/TKO2022-09-17
Claude HIT
Nazim Sadykhov
65%win confidence
KO/TKO 55%
Submission 15%
Decision 30%
Sadykhov holds significant advantages in this matchup despite both being strikers. His southpaw stance creates problematic angles for the orthodox Motta, who has shown defensive vulnerabilities with a 51% strike defense. Sadykhov's higher volume striking (4.94 SLPM vs Motta's 3.08) combined with his...
GPT HIT
Nazim Sadykhov
70%win confidence
KO/TKO 20%
Submission 10%
Decision 70%
Sadykhov has a higher striking volume, superior takedown accuracy, and better takedown defense. Despite Motta having a slightly better strike defense, his striking accuracy and volume are lower. The lack of takedown ability could also be detrimental against Sadykhov's strong takedown defense.
FINAL: Muhammad Naimov by U-DEC
Naimov WWLWW 139d out Grad W 139d out last 5
Muhammad Naimov last fought 139 days ago
W
vs Kaan Ofli · U-DEC2025-02-01
W
vs Erik Silva · KO/TKO2024-02-24
L
vs Felipe Lima · SUB2024-01-20
W
vs Nathaniel Wood · U-DEC2023-10-21
W
vs Jamie Mullarkey · KO/TKO2023-06-03
Bogdan Grad last fought 139 days ago
W
vs Lucas Alexander · KO/TKO Punches2025-02-01
Claude HIT
Muhammad Naimov
70%win confidence
KO/TKO 65%
Submission 15%
Decision 20%
This matchup heavily favors Naimov due to Grad's alarming defensive liabilities. While Grad shows high volume striking (6.35 SLPM), his defense is catastrophically poor, absorbing 10.25 strikes per minute with only 49% defense. Naimov, despite his own defensive issues, has proven finishing power wit...
GPT HIT
Muhammad Naimov
60%win confidence
KO/TKO 20%
Submission 0%
Decision 80%
Although Bogdan Grad has a higher strike rate, he absorbs significantly more strikes than he delivers. Naimov has better takedown defense and accuracy, which could limit Grad's offensive grappling attempts. This fight will likely go to decision, with Naimov's superior defensive skills giving him the...
FINAL: Seokhyeon Ko by U-DEC
Ko Elliott LWW 216d out last 5
Seokhyeon Ko no UFC fights on record
Oban Elliott last fought 216 days ago
L
vs Bassil Hafez · 2024-11-16
W
vs Preston Parsons · U-DEC2024-02-17
W
vs Val Woodburn · U-DEC2024-02-17
Claude MISS
Oban Elliott
75%win confidence
KO/TKO 20%
Submission 15%
Decision 65%
Elliott holds multiple statistical advantages that should translate to a clear victory. His striking differential (+1.58) significantly outperforms Ko's (+0.27), demonstrating superior offensive efficiency while absorbing fewer strikes. Elliott's grappling metrics are superior across the board with ...
GPT MISS
Oban Elliott
65%win confidence
KO/TKO 20%
Submission 10%
Decision 70%
Oban Elliott has a higher strike rate, better defensive efficiency, and superior takedown accuracy and defense. Although both fighters show similar styles, Elliott's statistical advantage in key areas suggests a higher probability of winning.
FINAL: JunYong Park by U-DEC
Naurdiev LWLW 1938d out Park WLWWW 420d out last 5
Ismail Naurdiev last fought 1938 days ago, long layoff
L
vs Sean Brady · U-DEC2020-02-29
W
vs Siyar Bahadurzada · U-DEC2019-09-28
L
vs Chance Rencountre · U-DEC2019-07-06
W
vs Michel Prazeres · U-DEC2019-02-23
JunYong Park last fought 420 days ago
W
vs Brad Tavares · S-DEC2024-04-27
L
vs Andre Muniz · S-DEC2023-12-09
W
vs Albert Duraev · SUB2023-07-15
W
vs Denis Tiuliulin · SUB2023-02-04
W
vs Joseph Holmes · SUB2022-10-29
Claude HIT
JunYong Park
70%win confidence
KO/TKO 25%
Submission 30%
Decision 45%
Park enters this matchup with significant momentum, having won 4 of his last 5 fights including two submission victories. While Naurdiev has better defensive striking metrics (68% defense vs Park's 54%), Park's volume advantage (4.77 SLPM vs Naurdiev's 3.17) and superior submission threat (0.9 submi...
GPT HIT
JunYong Park
65%win confidence
KO/TKO 20%
Submission 30%
Decision 50%
JunYong Park's higher strike volume, combined with a better win rate and more submissions per fight, suggest he has a slight edge in this matchup. Naurdiev's higher defense stats may help him avoid significant damage, but Park's overall effectiveness is likely to carry the fight.
FINAL: Daria Zhelezniakova by U-DEC
Zhelezniakova LW 441d out Mullins LLW 223d out last 5
Daria Zhelezniakova last fought 441 days ago
L
vs Ailin Perez · SUB2024-04-06
W
vs Montserrat Rendon · U-DEC2024-03-23
Melissa Mullins last fought 223 days ago
L
vs win · 2024-11-09
L
vs Nora Cornolle · KO/TKO2024-04-06
W
vs Irina Alekseeva · U-DEC2023-10-14
Claude HIT
Daria Zhelezniakova
65%win confidence
KO/TKO 15%
Submission 10%
Decision 75%
Zhelezniakova holds significant statistical advantages in striking efficiency with a positive differential (+1.59) compared to Mullins' negative differential (-0.91). Her superior striking defense (79% vs Mullins' 47%) is particularly telling. While both fighters have mixed recent results, Zheleznia...
GPT HIT
Daria Zhelezniakova
60%win confidence
KO/TKO 20%
Submission 0%
Decision 80%
Zhelezniakova's higher strike accuracy and defense as well as her takedown accuracy give her an edge in this fight.
FINAL: Klaudia Sygula by U-DEC
Alekseeva LW 616d out Sygula last 5
Irina Alekseeva last fought 616 days ago, long layoff
L
vs Melissa Mullins · U-DEC2023-10-14
W
vs Stephanie Egger · SUB2023-04-29
Klaudia Sygula no UFC fights on record
Claude MISS
Irina Alekseeva
75%win confidence
KO/TKO 15%
Submission 55%
Decision 30%
This matchup heavily favors Alekseeva based on experience and proven UFC-level skills against Sygula's UFC debut. Alekseeva demonstrates well-rounded abilities with 3.84 SLPM and 0.9 submissions per fight, providing multiple paths to victory. Her 100% takedown defense suggests strong wrestling funda...
GPT MISS
Irina Alekseeva
85%win confidence
KO/TKO 20%
Submission 15%
Decision 65%
Based on available stats, Alekseeva has the advantage in striking and grappling. Sygula has no recorded stats making it difficult to gauge her performance.
FINAL: Tagir Ulanbekov by U-DEC
Ulanbekov WWWLW 153d out Maksum LW 503d out last 5
Tagir Ulanbekov last fought 153 days ago
W
vs Clayton Carpenter · U-DEC2025-01-18
W
vs Cody Durden · SUB2023-12-16
W
vs Nate Maness · SUB2022-11-05
L
vs Tim Elliott · U-DEC2022-03-05
W
vs Allan Nascimento · S-DEC2021-10-30
Azat Maksum last fought 503 days ago, long layoff
L
vs Charles Johnson · U-DEC2024-02-03
W
vs Tyson Nam · S-DEC2023-07-15
Claude HIT
Tagir Ulanbekov
75%win confidence
KO/TKO 15%
Submission 45%
Decision 40%
Ulanbekov holds significant advantages in grappling efficiency and submission threat that will likely dictate the fight's trajectory. His 46% takedown accuracy compared to Maksum's 22% suggests he'll control where the fight takes place. While both fighters operate from southpaw stances, Ulanbekov's ...
GPT HIT
Tagir Ulanbekov
65%win confidence
KO/TKO 20%
Submission 30%
Decision 50%
Tagir Ulanbekov shows superior stats in terms of striking and grappling, with a higher striking accuracy and takedown average. Although Azat Maksum has a slight edge in strike defense and takedown defense, Ulanbekov's overall win rate is significantly higher.
FINAL: Mohammed Usman by U-DEC
Abdelwahab WL 139d out Usman LLWWW 455d out last 5
Hamdy Abdelwahab last fought 139 days ago
W
vs Jamal Pogues · S-DEC2025-02-01
L
vs Don'Tale Mayes · Overturned2022-07-30
Mohammed Usman last fought 455 days ago, long layoff
L
vs Mick Parkin · U-DEC2024-03-23
L
vs Thomas Petersen · U-DEC2024-02-10
W
vs Jake Collier · U-DEC2023-09-23
W
vs Junior Tafa · U-DEC2023-04-22
W
vs Zac Pauga · KO/TKO2022-08-06
Claude MISS
Hamdy Abdelwahab
65%win confidence
KO/TKO 30%
Submission 5%
Decision 65%
Abdelwahab presents a more efficient striking profile with a +0.74 differential compared to Usman's -1.0, suggesting he'll be more effective in exchanges. His 75% takedown accuracy versus Usman's 17% indicates a significant advantage in phase transitions, though Usman's 60% takedown defense could mi...
GPT MISS
Hamdy Abdelwahab
70%win confidence
KO/TKO 20%
Submission 10%
Decision 70%
Hamdy Abdelwahab has a higher striking accuracy, volume, and significant striking differential compared to Mohammed Usman. Furthermore, Abdelwahab's takedown accuracy is significantly higher than Usman's, indicating a strong grappling game that could control the fight's pace and location.