August 22, 2026
UFC Fight Night: Hernandez vs. Rodrigues
Card complete. Claude 6/13 (46%) · GPT 5/13 (38%)
All results
Both models agree 12 of 13 fights
Shanelle Dyer over Elise Reed
Claude 80%
GPT 69%
GPT 69%
Anthony Hernandez over Gregory Rodrigues
Claude 66%
GPT 72%
GPT 72%
Carli Judice over Jeisla Chaves
Claude 65%
GPT 68%
GPT 68%
Reinier de Ridder over Roman Dolidze
Both call Submission
Claude 62%
GPT 67%
GPT 67%
Marcio Barbosa over Ryan Kuse
Claude 65%
GPT 63%
GPT 63%
Lerryan Douglas over Jamall Emmers
Both call KO/TKO
Claude 62%
GPT 63%
GPT 63%
Serghei Spivac over Vitor Petrino
Claude 59%
GPT 64%
GPT 64%
Anthony Wint over Terrance Chatman
Both call KO/TKO
Claude 65%
GPT 58%
GPT 58%
Gauge Young over Stan Dorsainvil
Both call Decision
Claude 61%
GPT 62%
GPT 62%
Kennedy Nzechukwu over Shamil Gaziev
Both call KO/TKO
Claude 58%
GPT 64%
GPT 64%
Mason Jones over MarQuel Mederos
Both call Decision
Claude 58%
GPT 62%
GPT 62%
Wes Schultz over Jackson McVey
Both call Submission
Claude 57%
GPT 62%
GPT 62%
Double locks: both at 75% or higher 0 fights
Nothing clears the 75% bar from both models. The genie is hedging tonight.
Build your own list 12 match
Shanelle Dyer over Elise Reed
Claude 80%
GPT 69%
GPT 69%
Anthony Hernandez over Gregory Rodrigues
Claude 66%
GPT 72%
GPT 72%
Carli Judice over Jeisla Chaves
Claude 65%
GPT 68%
GPT 68%
Reinier de Ridder over Roman Dolidze
Both call Submission
Claude 62%
GPT 67%
GPT 67%
Marcio Barbosa over Ryan Kuse
Claude 65%
GPT 63%
GPT 63%
Lerryan Douglas over Jamall Emmers
Both call KO/TKO
Claude 62%
GPT 63%
GPT 63%
Serghei Spivac over Vitor Petrino
Claude 59%
GPT 64%
GPT 64%
Anthony Wint over Terrance Chatman
Both call KO/TKO
Claude 65%
GPT 58%
GPT 58%
Gauge Young over Stan Dorsainvil
Both call Decision
Claude 61%
GPT 62%
GPT 62%
Kennedy Nzechukwu over Shamil Gaziev
Both call KO/TKO
Claude 58%
GPT 64%
GPT 64%
Mason Jones over MarQuel Mederos
Both call Decision
Claude 58%
GPT 62%
GPT 62%
Wes Schultz over Jackson McVey
Both call Submission
Claude 57%
GPT 62%
GPT 62%
Win confidence is the model's probability that its pick wins: 55 to 64 is a shrug, 65 to 74 is confident, 75 and up is the model betting its reputation.
KO/TKO, Submission, Decision is how the model splits the ways the fight ends, out of 100.
Odds are the sportsbook moneyline with the bookmaker margin removed, so the two percentages sum to 100. When a model's confidence beats the market's implied number, that gap is the value.
Elo is an opponent adjusted rating built from every UFC fight since 1994. Click any Elo number on the card for the full explanation, including what the star means.
FINAL: Gregory Rodrigues by U-DEC
Anthony Hernandez -215 (65.64885496183206%)
Gregory Rodrigues +180 (34.351145038167935%)
fanduel line
Hernandez LWWWW 181d out Rodrigues WWWLW 167d out last 5
Anthony Hernandez last fought 181 days ago
L
vs Sean Strickland · KO/TKO Punches2026-02-21
W
vs Roman Dolidze · SUB Rear Naked Choke2025-08-09
W
vs Brendan Allen · U-DEC2025-02-22
W
vs Michel Pereira · KO/TKO2024-04-27
W
vs Roman Kopylov · SUB2024-02-17
Gregory Rodrigues last fought 167 days ago
W
vs Brunno Ferreira · KO/TKO Punch2026-03-07
W
vs Roman Kopylov · U-DEC2025-11-15
W
vs Jack Hermansson · KO/TKO Punch2025-06-28
L
vs Jared Cannonier · KO/TKO Punches2025-02-15
W
vs Christian Leroy Duncan · U-DEC2024-02-17
Claude MISS
Anthony Hernandez
66%win confidence
KO/TKO 18%
Submission 33%
Decision 49%
This is a classic pressure-grappler-versus-power-puncher matchup, and the deciding variable is the gap between Hernandez's takedown volume and Rodrigues's ability to keep the fight vertical for 25 minutes. Hernandez averages an enormous 5.88 takedowns per 15 minutes with a 1.6 sub average, and he co...
GPT MISS
Anthony Hernandez
72%win confidence
KO/TKO 42%
Submission 18%
Decision 40%
Hernandez's relentless wrestling, clinch pressure, and pace are well suited to neutralizing Rodrigues's superior one-shot power. Rodrigues owns solid 75% takedown defense and is dangerous early, but Hernandez attempts takedowns at a much higher rate, lands strikes more accurately, absorbs fewer sign...
FINAL: Vitor Petrino by U-DEC
Spivac WLWLW 181d out Petrino WWLWL 315d out last 5
Serghei Spivac last fought 181 days ago
W
vs Ante Delija · U-DEC2026-02-21
L
vs Jailton Almeida · KO/TKO Punches2025-01-18
W
vs Marcin Tybura · SUB2024-03-02
L
vs Ciryl Gane · KO/TKO2023-09-02
W
vs Derrick Lewis · SUB2023-02-04
Vitor Petrino last fought 315 days ago
W
vs Thomas Petersen · KO/TKO Punch2025-10-11
W
vs Austen Lane · SUB Rear Naked Choke2025-07-12
L
vs Dustin Jacoby · KO/TKO Punch2024-12-14
W
vs Tyson Pedro · U-DEC2024-03-02
L
vs Anthony Smith · SUB2023-12-09
Claude MISS
Serghei Spivac
59%win confidence
KO/TKO 22%
Submission 22%
Decision 56%
No market line is available here, so this rests on UFC Stats and Elo, which scores it nearly even (51/49 Spivac). The stylistic question is whose grappling means more: Spivac is the proven heavyweight grappler - 3.82 TD/15 at a strong 59% accuracy, with submission wins over Derrick Lewis and Tybura ...
GPT MISS
Serghei Spivac
64%win confidence
KO/TKO 26%
Submission 41%
Decision 33%
Spivac's size-adjusted heavyweight grappling, 3.82 takedowns per fight, and 59% takedown accuracy give him the clearest route to victory. Petrino owns strong 79% takedown defense and the superior striking differential, making him dangerous early, but sustained clinch pressure and chained trips shoul...
FINAL: Reinier de Ridder by KO/TKO Punches
Reinier de Ridder -390 (76.5438008616563%)
Roman Dolidze +310 (23.456199138343706%)
fanduel line
Ridder LLWWL 167d out Dolidze LWWLW 378d out last 5
Reinier de Ridder last fought 167 days ago
L
vs Caio Borralho · U-DEC2026-03-07
L
vs Brendan Allen · KO/TKO2025-10-18
W
vs Bo Nickal · KO/TKO Knee2025-05-03
W
vs Kevin Holland · SUB Rear Naked Choke2025-01-18
L
vs win · 2024-11-09
Roman Dolidze last fought 378 days ago
L
vs Anthony Hernandez · SUB Rear Naked Choke2025-08-09
W
vs Marvin Vettori · U-DEC2025-03-15
W
vs Kevin Holland · KO/TKO2024-04-13
L
vs Nassourdine Imavov · M-DEC2024-02-03
W
vs Anthony Smith · U-DEC2024-01-27
Claude HIT
Reinier de Ridder
62%win confidence
KO/TKO 15%
Submission 42%
Decision 43%
The market (-390, 77% implied) and Elo (60% for Dolidze) are in violent disagreement here, and the truth sits between them - closer to the market's side but well short of its number. Elo punishes de Ridder for his 2-3 UFC record on only five rated fights, but the losses were to Borralho and Allen, e...
GPT HIT
Reinier de Ridder
67%win confidence
KO/TKO 14%
Submission 49%
Decision 37%
De Ridder's persistent clinch wrestling, positional grappling and submission chains are well suited to exploiting Dolidze's 32% takedown defense. Dolidze is dangerous on the mat and carries more striking power, but his negative striking differential and tendency to concede control should allow de Ri...
FINAL: Carli Judice by KO/TKO Kick
Carli Judice -590 (81.9229761592874%)
Jeisla Chaves +430 (18.077023840712602%)
fanduel line
Judice WWWL 181d out Chaves last 5
Carli Judice last fought 181 days ago
W
vs Juliana Miller · U-DEC2026-02-21
W
vs Nicolle Caliari · KO/TKO Knee2025-07-19
W
vs Yuneisy Duben · KO/TKO Kick2025-03-15
L
vs Gabriella Fernandes · S-DEC2024-01-13
Jeisla Chaves no UFC fights on record
Claude HIT
Carli Judice
65%win confidence
KO/TKO 42%
Submission 5%
Decision 53%
Judice is a legitimate -590 favorite and the tape supports the number. She's riding a three-fight UFC win streak with two violent finishes (knee TKO of Caliari, head-kick KO of Duben) and her output profile is elite for the division: 9.32 SLpM at 50% accuracy is nearly double Chaves' 4.97 SLpM. Crit...
GPT HIT
Carli Judice
68%win confidence
KO/TKO 25%
Submission 10%
Decision 65%
Judice's exceptional striking pace and larger positive differential should allow her to bank rounds through sustained output. She lands 9.32 significant strikes per minute compared with Chaves' 4.97 and owns the stronger striking differential, 2.70 to 0.77. Chaves has the clearer grappling route, bu...
FINAL: MarQuel Mederos by KO/TKO Punches
MarQuel Mederos +275 (25.65597667638484%)
Mason Jones -340 (74.34402332361516%)
fanduel line
Mederos WWW 441d out Jones WWLWL 350d out last 5
MarQuel Mederos last fought 441 days ago
W
vs Mark Choinski · U-DEC2025-06-07
W
vs Austin Hubbard · S-DEC2025-03-29
W
vs Landon Quinones · U-DEC2024-02-03
Mason Jones last fought 350 days ago
W
vs Bolaji Oki · KO/TKO Elbows2025-09-06
W
vs Jeremy Stephens · U-DEC2025-05-03
L
vs Ludovit Klein · U-DEC2022-07-23
W
vs David Onama · U-DEC2021-10-23
L
vs Alan Patrick · CNC2021-06-05
Claude MISS
Mason Jones
58%win confidence
KO/TKO 18%
Submission 7%
Decision 75%
This is the most interesting pricing tension on the card. The market makes Jones a strong -340 favorite (74%), but the opponent-adjusted Elo model actually favors Mederos 57-43 - a genuine model-vs-market split worth resolving. Jones brings the pedigree: 18-2 overall, a three-fight UFC streak includ...
GPT MISS
Mason Jones
62%win confidence
KO/TKO 24%
Submission 6%
Decision 70%
Jones' higher striking output and meaningful wrestling activity give him more ways to bank rounds, particularly through pressure, cage control, and takedown attempts. Mederos is the cleaner defensive striker and owns strong 90% takedown defense, but Jones' pace and five-inch reach advantage should h...
FINAL: Shamil Gaziev by KO/TKO Punch
Kennedy Nzechukwu +106 (46.72117470382112%)
Shamil Gaziev -124 (53.27882529617888%)
fanduel line
Nzechukwu LWLLW 406d out Gaziev LWLWW 272d out last 5
Kennedy Nzechukwu last fought 406 days ago
L
vs Valter Walker · SUB Heel Hook2025-07-12
W
vs Lukasz Brzeski · KO/TKO Punch2024-12-07
L
vs Ovince Saint Preux · S-DEC2024-03-16
L
vs Dustin Jacoby · KO/TKO2023-08-05
W
vs Devin Clark · SUB2023-05-06
Shamil Gaziev last fought 272 days ago
L
vs Waldo Cortes Acosta · KO/TKO Punch2025-11-22
W
vs Thomas Petersen · KO/TKO Punch2025-02-01
L
vs Jairzinho Rozenstruik · KO/TKO2024-03-02
W
vs Don'Tale Mayes · U-DEC2024-02-24
W
vs Martin Buday · KO/TKO2023-12-16
Claude MISS
Kennedy Nzechukwu
58%win confidence
KO/TKO 62%
Submission 8%
Decision 30%
The market makes Gaziev a narrow -124 favorite, but Elo has this dead even (50/50) and the recent evidence tilts toward Nzechukwu. Gaziev has been knocked out with punches in back-to-back fights (Pericic, Cortes Acosta) and previously wilted from exhaustion against Rozenstruik - a durability and car...
GPT MISS
Kennedy Nzechukwu
64%win confidence
KO/TKO 61%
Submission 6%
Decision 33%
Nzechukwu's superior output, positive striking differential, five-inch reach advantage, and stronger striking defense give him the better tools to extend exchanges and punish Gaziev as the pace accumulates. Gaziev is dangerous early with power and wrestling, but his low output, 45% striking defense,...
FINAL: Jackson McVey by KO/TKO Knee
Wes Schultz +144 (39.32454314133704%)
Jackson McVey -172 (60.67545685866297%)
fanduel line
Schultz McVey WLL 119d out last 5
Wes Schultz no UFC fights on record
Jackson McVey last fought 119 days ago
W
vs Sedriques Dumas · SUB D'Arce Choke2026-04-25
L
vs Zach Reese · SUB Rear Naked Choke2025-11-08
L
vs Brunno Ferreira · SUB Armbar2025-07-19
Claude MISS
Wes Schultz
57%win confidence
KO/TKO 27%
Submission 45%
Decision 28%
The market prices McVey at 61%, but this specific stylistic pairing argues for the +144 underdog. McVey is a dangerous, accurate striker (6.51 SLPM, 69% accuracy) with a D'Arce win over Dumas, yet both of his UFC losses came by submission - armbar to Ferreira in round 1 and RNC to Reese in round 2. ...
GPT MISS
Wes Schultz
62%win confidence
KO/TKO 22%
Submission 53%
Decision 25%
McVey owns the stronger striking metrics, landing 6.51 significant strikes per minute at 69% accuracy, but his 23% striking defense and unproven takedown defense create major vulnerabilities. Schultz's striking differential is negative and his takedown accuracy is only 21%, yet his 2.39 takedowns an...
FINAL: Shanelle Dyer by KO/TKO Punches
Shanelle Dyer -10000 (92.23674096848579%)
Elise Reed +1100 (7.76325903151422%)
fanduel line
Dyer Reed LWLWL 462d out last 5
Shanelle Dyer no UFC fights on record
Elise Reed last fought 462 days ago, long layoff
L
vs Denise Gomes · KO/TKO Punches2025-05-17
W
vs Jessica Penne · U-DEC2024-04-27
L
vs Loopy Godinez · SUB2023-09-16
W
vs Jinh Yu Frey · U-DEC2023-06-03
L
vs Loma Lookboonmee · SUB2023-02-11
Claude HIT
Shanelle Dyer
80%win confidence
KO/TKO 60%
Submission 5%
Decision 35%
This is one of the most lopsided lines on the card at -10000/+1100 (92% implied for Dyer), and everything in the data supports the direction if not the extremity. Dyer, 25, is a high-output finisher landing 7.71 significant strikes per minute with back-to-back KO/TKO wins by punches, while Reed, 33,...
GPT HIT
Shanelle Dyer
69%win confidence
KO/TKO 22%
Submission 3%
Decision 75%
Dyer's substantially higher striking output and stronger significant-strike differential should allow her to control the pace over three rounds. Reed is more accurate and has greater UFC experience, but she absorbs nearly as much as she lands and may struggle to match Dyer's activity. Dyer's reporte...
FINAL: Anthony Wint by SUB Arm Triangle
Anthony Wint -1200 (88.69565217391305%)
Terrance Chatman +750 (11.304347826086955%)
fanduel line
Claude HIT
Anthony Wint
65%win confidence
KO/TKO 72%
Submission 8%
Decision 20%
Both men are effectively UFC debutants, so this read leans on the market prior and what little verifiable data exists rather than octagon stats. Wint arrives unbeaten at 7-0 with a 100% finish rate, coming off a 12-day turnaround from a first-round KO of Matt Adams on the Contender Series - that sho...
GPT HIT
Anthony Wint
58%win confidence
KO/TKO 48%
Submission 14%
Decision 38%
Wint is the tentative pick based on the only measurable UFC data available, including 72% striking accuracy, an exceptional reported output, and perfect recorded striking and takedown defense. Those figures likely come from an extremely short sample and should not be treated as sustainable, while Ch...
FINAL: Jamall Emmers by KO/TKO Punch
Jamall Emmers +315 (23.148148148148145%)
Lerryan Douglas -400 (76.85185185185185%)
fanduel line
Emmers WWLWL 286d out Douglas last 5
Jamall Emmers last fought 286 days ago
W
vs Hyder Amil · U-DEC2025-11-08
W
vs Gabriel Miranda · KO/TKO Punch2025-03-29
L
vs Nate Landwehr · KO/TKO2024-03-30
W
vs Dennis Buzukja · KO/TKO2023-11-11
L
vs Jack Jenkins · S-DEC2023-06-24
Lerryan Douglas no UFC fights on record
Claude MISS
Lerryan Douglas
62%win confidence
KO/TKO 48%
Submission 7%
Decision 45%
Douglas is the live prospect here and the market's -400 (77%) prior is directionally right, though I would price him closer to 70% given the sample size. His raw output is startling: 8.67 SLpM at 64% accuracy with a +3.85 strike differential, and he just knocked out the ultra-durable veteran Julian ...
GPT MISS
Lerryan Douglas
63%win confidence
KO/TKO 48%
Submission 8%
Decision 44%
Douglas projects as the more dangerous striker, producing substantially higher volume, accuracy, and net striking output while also holding a slight reach advantage. Emmers has the experience, a reliable positive striking differential, and a viable wrestling route, but his 4.05 significant strikes a...
FINAL: Chris Padilla by SUB Arm Triangle
Chris Padilla -116 (51.5396797466127%)
Nasrat Haqparast -102 (48.46032025338729%)
fanduel line
Padilla WWWW 286d out Haqparast WWWWW 538d out last 5
Chris Padilla last fought 286 days ago
W
vs Ismael Bonfim · KO/TKO Punches2025-11-08
W
vs Jai Herbert · S-DEC2025-03-22
W
vs James Llontop · SUB2024-04-27
W
vs Rongzhu · KO/TKO2024-03-23
Nasrat Haqparast last fought 538 days ago, long layoff
W
vs Esteban Ribovics · S-DEC2025-03-01
W
vs Jared Gordon · S-DEC2024-01-20
W
vs Jamie Mullarkey · KO/TKO2023-12-09
W
vs Landon Quinones · U-DEC2023-09-09
W
vs John Makdessi · U-DEC2022-09-03
Claude HIT
Chris Padilla
58%win confidence
KO/TKO 22%
Submission 13%
Decision 65%
A genuine coin-flip on the line (-116/-102) and in Elo (1582 vs 1577, 51/49), so the pick hinges on trajectory and matchup mechanics. Padilla is unbeaten in the UFC at 4-0-1 with finishes in three modes - KO of Ismael Bonfim, sub of Llontop, decision over Herbert - and his +59 Elo trend is steeper t...
GPT MISS
Nasrat Haqparast
64%win confidence
KO/TKO 24%
Submission 8%
Decision 68%
Padilla has the stronger accuracy and grappling rates, but Haqparast's 84% takedown defense should limit those opportunities and keep the matchup primarily on the feet. Haqparast combines slightly higher striking volume with substantially better striking defense and has the experience to manage a co...
FINAL: Marcio Barbosa by KO/TKO Punch
Marcio Barbosa -900 (86.468200270636%)
Ryan Kuse +610 (13.531799729364009%)
fanduel line
Barbosa W 126d out Kuse last 5
Marcio Barbosa last fought 126 days ago
W
vs Dennis Buzukja · KO/TKO Punch2026-04-18
Ryan Kuse no UFC fights on record
Claude HIT
Marcio Barbosa
65%win confidence
KO/TKO 58%
Submission 7%
Decision 35%
Barbosa is a legitimate knockout artist entering with real momentum: an 18-2 overall record, a first-round KO of Dennis Buzukja in his UFC debut, and a KO of Damon Wilson on Contender Series before that. His 8.27 SLpM volume paired with 47% accuracy indicates a swarming, front-foot power puncher who...
GPT HIT
Marcio Barbosa
63%win confidence
KO/TKO 31%
Submission 9%
Decision 60%
Barbosa is the more supportable pick because his available UFC sample shows exceptionally high output at 8.27 significant strikes landed per minute, 47% accuracy, a positive striking differential, and 100% takedown defense. His 7.56 strikes absorbed per minute and 50% striking defense create substan...
FINAL: Stan Dorsainvil by U-DEC
Gauge Young -178 (61.54910096818811%)
Stan Dorsainvil +150 (38.4508990318119%)
fanduel line
Young WWL 126d out Dorsainvil last 5
Gauge Young last fought 126 days ago
W
vs Thiago Moises · S-DEC2026-04-18
W
vs Maheshate · U-DEC2025-08-23
L
vs Evan Elder · U-DEC2025-04-26
Stan Dorsainvil no UFC fights on record
Claude MISS
Gauge Young
61%win confidence
KO/TKO 16%
Submission 9%
Decision 75%
Young is the rare debutant-opponent with a genuinely meaningful UFC resume: three full UFC fights including back-to-back decision wins over Thiago Moises (a longtime lightweight gatekeeper - a quality scalp) and Maheshate. His profile is that of a high-output decision grinder: 6.32 SLpM at 52% accur...
GPT MISS
Gauge Young
62%win confidence
KO/TKO 35%
Submission 8%
Decision 57%
Young is the more supportable pick because he has demonstrated high-volume, accurate striking, producing a positive significant-strike differential of 1.20 per minute. His 76% takedown defense should also help keep the fight in his preferred phase. Dorsainvil's six-inch reach advantage presents a me...