November 1, 2025
UFC Fight Night: Garcia vs. Onama
Card complete. GPT 7/11 (64%) · Claude 6/11 (55%)
All results
Both models agree 11 of 13 fights
ChangHo Lee over Timmy Cuamba
Both call Decision
Claude 72%
GPT 75%
GPT 75%
Themba Gorimbo over Jeremiah Wells
Both call Decision
Claude 74%
GPT 71%
GPT 71%
Alice Ardelean over Montserrat Conejo Ruiz
Both call Decision
Claude 72%
GPT 72%
GPT 72%
Waldo Cortes-Acosta over Ante Delija
Both call Decision
Claude 72%
GPT 70%
GPT 70%
Norma Dumont over Ketlen Vieira
Both call Decision
Claude 65%
GPT 75%
GPT 75%
Steve Garcia over David Onama
Claude 68%
GPT 70%
GPT 70%
Donte Johnson over Sedriques Dumas
Both call KO/TKO
Claude 68%
GPT 67%
GPT 67%
Ariane Carnelossi over Talita Alencar
Both call Decision
Claude 65%
GPT 68%
GPT 68%
Yadier del Valle over Isaac Dulgarian
Both call Decision
Claude 65%
GPT 67%
GPT 67%
Charles Radtke over Daniel Frunza
Both call Decision
Claude 62%
GPT 67%
GPT 67%
Kevin Christian over Billy Elekana
Both call Submission
Claude 55%
GPT 65%
GPT 65%
Double locks: both at 75% or higher 0 fights
Nothing clears the 75% bar from both models. The genie is hedging tonight.
Build your own list 11 match
ChangHo Lee over Timmy Cuamba
Both call Decision
Claude 72%
GPT 75%
GPT 75%
Themba Gorimbo over Jeremiah Wells
Both call Decision
Claude 74%
GPT 71%
GPT 71%
Alice Ardelean over Montserrat Conejo Ruiz
Both call Decision
Claude 72%
GPT 72%
GPT 72%
Waldo Cortes-Acosta over Ante Delija
Both call Decision
Claude 72%
GPT 70%
GPT 70%
Norma Dumont over Ketlen Vieira
Both call Decision
Claude 65%
GPT 75%
GPT 75%
Steve Garcia over David Onama
Claude 68%
GPT 70%
GPT 70%
Donte Johnson over Sedriques Dumas
Both call KO/TKO
Claude 68%
GPT 67%
GPT 67%
Ariane Carnelossi over Talita Alencar
Both call Decision
Claude 65%
GPT 68%
GPT 68%
Yadier del Valle over Isaac Dulgarian
Both call Decision
Claude 65%
GPT 67%
GPT 67%
Charles Radtke over Daniel Frunza
Both call Decision
Claude 62%
GPT 67%
GPT 67%
Kevin Christian over Billy Elekana
Both call Submission
Claude 55%
GPT 65%
GPT 65%
Win confidence is the model's probability that its pick wins: 55 to 64 is a shrug, 65 to 74 is confident, 75 and up is the model betting its reputation.
KO/TKO, Submission, Decision is how the model splits the ways the fight ends, out of 100.
Odds are the sportsbook moneyline with the bookmaker margin removed, so the two percentages sum to 100. When a model's confidence beats the market's implied number, that gap is the value.
Elo is an opponent adjusted rating built from every UFC fight since 1994. Click any Elo number on the card for the full explanation, including what the star means.
FINAL: Steve Garcia by KO/TKO Punches
Garcia WWWWW 112d out Onama WWWWL 189d out last 5
Steve Garcia last fought 112 days ago
W
vs Calvin Kattar · U-DEC2025-07-12
W
vs Kyle Nelson · KO/TKO2024-03-23
W
vs SeungWoo Choi · KO/TKO2024-02-10
W
vs Melquizael Costa · KO/TKO2023-12-09
W
vs Shayilan Nuerdanbieke · KO/TKO2023-04-08
David Onama last fought 189 days ago
W
vs Giga Chikadze · U-DEC2025-04-26
W
vs Lucas Alexander · 2024-11-16
W
vs Jonathan Pearce · U-DEC2024-04-27
W
vs Gabriel Santos · KO/TKO2023-06-24
L
vs Nate Landwehr · M-DEC2022-08-13
Claude HIT
Steve Garcia
68%win confidence
KO/TKO 55%
Submission 15%
Decision 30%
Garcia's veteran experience and finishing ability should overwhelm Onama. Garcia has shown improved striking defense and power in recent outings, while Onama has struggled with consistency at the UFC level. Garcia's pressure and body work will break down Onama's gas tank.
GPT HIT
Steve Garcia
70%win confidence
KO/TKO 22%
Submission 8%
Decision 70%
Garcia holds significant statistical advantages in striking accuracy, takedown defense, and strike differential. While both fighters throw at an identical pace, Garcia absorbs far fewer strikes per minute and defends takedowns at a much higher rate. Onama's negative strike differential and low taked...
Cortes-Acosta WWWLW 657d out Delija W 56d out last 5
Waldo Cortes-Acosta last fought 657 days ago, long layoff
W
vs Andrei Arlovski · U-DEC2024-01-13
W
vs Robelis Despaigne · U-DEC2023-12-16
W
vs Lukasz Brzeski · KO/TKO2023-08-26
L
vs Marcos Rogerio de Lima · U-DEC2023-04-29
W
vs Chase Sherman · U-DEC2022-11-19
Ante Delija last fought 56 days ago
W
vs Marcin Tybura · KO/TKO Punches2025-09-06
Claude
Waldo Cortes-Acosta
72%win confidence
KO/TKO 25%
Submission 10%
Decision 65%
Cortes-Acosta's superior cardio and volume striking should dominate this heavyweight matchup. Delija lacks the power to finish and has shown poor conditioning in later rounds. Waldo's wrestling defense and constant pressure will neutralize Delija's grappling attempts.
GPT
Waldo Cortes-Acosta
70%win confidence
KO/TKO 18%
Submission 7%
Decision 75%
Waldo Cortes-Acosta has a clear statistical edge in UFC-level striking volume, accuracy, and defensive metrics. Ante Delija's lack of UFC data creates uncertainty about his ability to perform against a proven volume striker. Cortes-Acosta's takedown defense and moderate offensive wrestling provide e...
FINAL: Jeremiah Wells by U-DEC
Wells LLWWW 629d out Gorimbo LWWWW 328d out last 5
Jeremiah Wells last fought 629 days ago, long layoff
L
vs Max Griffin · S-DEC2024-02-10
L
vs Carlston Harris · SUB2023-08-05
W
vs Matthew Semelsberger · S-DEC2023-04-22
W
vs Court McGee · KO/TKO2022-06-18
W
vs Blood Diamond · SUB2022-02-12
Themba Gorimbo last fought 328 days ago
L
vs Vicente Luque · SUB Anaconda Choke2024-12-07
W
vs Niko Price · U-DEC2024-04-27
W
vs Pete Rodriguez · KO/TKO2024-02-03
W
vs Ramiz Brahimaj · U-DEC2023-12-23
W
vs Takashi Sato · U-DEC2023-05-20
Claude MISS
Themba Gorimbo
74%win confidence
KO/TKO 20%
Submission 25%
Decision 55%
Gorimbo's wrestling dominance and improving striking will control this fight. Wells struggles against grapplers and Gorimbo's 5.8 takedowns per 15 minutes will exploit this weakness. Gorimbo's cardio and pace will wear down Wells over three rounds.
GPT MISS
Themba Gorimbo
71%win confidence
KO/TKO 11%
Submission 19%
Decision 70%
Gorimbo holds clear statistical advantages in striking accuracy, defensive metrics, and takedown efficiency, while also boasting superior volume and physical attributes (reach, height). Wells is durable and defensively sound, but Gorimbo's output, grappling control, and ability to dictate range make...
FINAL: Yadier del Valle by SUB Rear Naked Choke
Dulgarian WLW 588d out Valle last 5
Isaac Dulgarian last fought 588 days ago, long layoff
W
vs Brendon Marotte · SUB2024-03-23
L
vs Christian Rodriguez · S-DEC2024-03-16
W
vs Francis Marshall · KO/TKO2023-08-12
Yadier del Valle no UFC fights on record
Claude HIT
Yadier del Valle
65%win confidence
KO/TKO 30%
Submission 15%
Decision 55%
Del Valle's superior striking volume (7.49 vs 3.37 SLPM) and accuracy (67% vs 64%) will overwhelm Dulgarian. While Dulgarian has better grappling stats, del Valle's 66% takedown defense and southpaw stance will create problems. Del Valle's striking differential of +4.03 is significantly better than ...
GPT HIT
Yadier del Valle
67%win confidence
KO/TKO 15%
Submission 20%
Decision 65%
Yadier del Valle's significantly higher striking output (7.49 SLpM vs. 3.37), superior striking accuracy (67% vs. 64%), and better striking defense (52% vs. 41%) suggest he can control the fight at range. His takedown defense (66%) is likely sufficient to limit Dulgarian's wrestling (5.15 TD avg), a...
FINAL: Charles Radtke by SUB Rear Naked Choke
Radtke LLWLW 175d out Frunza L 210d out last 5
Charles Radtke last fought 175 days ago
L
vs Mike Malott · KO/TKO Punch2025-05-10
L
vs win · 2024-11-09
W
vs Gilbert Urbina · KO/TKO2024-02-03
L
vs Carlos Prates · KO/TKO2024-01-06
W
vs Blood Diamond · U-DEC2023-09-09
Daniel Frunza last fought 210 days ago
L
vs Rhys McKee · KO/TKO2025-04-05
Claude HIT
Charles Radtke
62%win confidence
KO/TKO 28%
Submission 8%
Decision 64%
Radtke's superior striking accuracy (53% vs 44%) and defensive wrestling (100% TDD) should neutralize Frunza's volume-heavy approach. While Frunza throws more (4.94 SLPM vs 3.38), his poor accuracy and worse defense (51% vs 56%) create openings for Radtke's more measured counter-striking. Radtke's r...
GPT HIT
Charles Radtke
67%win confidence
KO/TKO 18%
Submission 5%
Decision 77%
Radtke's superior striking accuracy (53% vs 44%), lower strikes absorbed per minute, and perfect takedown defense give him a technical edge over Frunza, who allows more damage than he delivers and has a negative strike differential. Frunza's higher output is offset by poorer defensive metrics and la...
Nascimento WWWL 154d out Estevam WW 258d out last 5
Allan Nascimento last fought 154 days ago
W
vs Jafel Filho · U-DEC2025-05-31
W
vs Carlos Hernandez · SUB2023-01-14
W
vs Jake Hadley · U-DEC2022-05-14
L
vs Tagir Ulanbekov · S-DEC2021-10-30
Rafael Estevam last fought 258 days ago
W
vs Jesus Aguilar · U-DEC2025-02-15
W
vs Charles Johnson · U-DEC2023-11-18
Claude
Rafael Estevam
58%win confidence
KO/TKO 12%
Submission 26%
Decision 62%
Despite Nascimento's experience edge, Estevam's superior grappling output (3.35 TDAvg vs 1.55) and better striking defense fundamentals position him well. Nascimento's 16% takedown defense is alarming against a wrestler averaging over 3 takedowns per fight. While Nascimento has better striking diffe...
GPT
Allan Nascimento
68%win confidence
KO/TKO 10%
Submission 25%
Decision 65%
Nascimento's superior striking defense, higher strike differential, and proven grappling submission threat give him the edge against Estevam, whose takedown defense is extremely low and absorbs more strikes than he lands. While Estevam is aggressive with takedowns, his accuracy is low and Nascimento...
FINAL: Billy Elekana by SUB Rear Naked Choke
Elekana L 286d out Christian last 5
Billy Elekana last fought 286 days ago
L
vs Bogdan Guskov · SUB Guillotine Choke2025-01-18
Kevin Christian no UFC fights on record
Claude MISS
Kevin Christian
55%win confidence
KO/TKO 15%
Submission 48%
Decision 37%
This matchup features two UFC debutants with limited data, but Christian's 3.2 submissions per fight average is the most significant statistical outlier. His massive 4-inch height advantage (6'7" vs 6'3") and 3-inch reach edge create grappling leverage opportunities. While both show minimal striking...
GPT MISS
Kevin Christian
65%win confidence
KO/TKO 10%
Submission 55%
Decision 35%
Kevin Christian has a clear statistical edge in grappling with a 3.2 submissions per fight average and solid defensive statistics, while Billy Elekana enters with no measurable UFC stats, indicating inexperience or lack of high-level data. Christian's moderate striking defense (55%) and ability to t...
FINAL: Timmy Cuamba by U-DEC
Cuamba WLL 189d out Lee WW 210d out last 5
Timmy Cuamba last fought 189 days ago
W
vs Roberto Romero · KO/TKO Flying Knee2025-04-26
L
vs Bolaji Oki · S-DEC2024-02-10
L
vs Lucas Almeida · U-DEC2024-01-13
ChangHo Lee last fought 210 days ago
W
vs Cortavious Romious · KO/TKO Elbows2025-04-05
W
vs Xiao Long · S-DEC2024-01-20
Claude MISS
ChangHo Lee
72%win confidence
KO/TKO 15%
Submission 10%
Decision 75%
Lee's superior striking accuracy (70% vs 40%) and positive striking differential (+2.25 vs -1.38) give him a clear technical edge. Cuamba is on a 3-fight losing streak and has shown vulnerability to consistent pressure. Lee's wrestling game (3.24 takedowns per fight) will be crucial against Cuamba's...
GPT MISS
ChangHo Lee
75%win confidence
KO/TKO 15%
Submission 5%
Decision 80%
ChangHo Lee demonstrates superior striking output and accuracy, with significant advantages in both SLPM (4.9 vs 3.0) and striking accuracy (70% vs 40%). He also lands far more takedowns per fight (3.24 vs 1.0), which can exploit Cuamba's modest takedown defense. While Lee's defensive numbers are a ...
FINAL: Donte Johnson by SUB Guillotine Choke
Johnson Dumas LLWWW 203d out last 5
Donte Johnson no UFC fights on record
Sedriques Dumas last fought 203 days ago
L
vs Michal Oleksiejczuk · KO/TKO Punches2025-04-12
L
vs Nursulton Ruziboev · KO/TKO2024-03-30
W
vs Denis Tiuliulin · U-DEC2024-02-24
W
vs Abu Azaitar · U-DEC2023-10-21
W
vs Cody Brundage · U-DEC2023-06-24
Claude HIT
Donte Johnson
68%win confidence
KO/TKO 55%
Submission 5%
Decision 40%
Johnson's exceptional striking volume (14.06 SLPM vs 2.15) and accuracy (71% vs 48%) create overwhelming offensive pressure. Despite Dumas's height and reach advantage (6'2" with 79" reach), Johnson's southpaw stance and 5.62 striking differential will neutralize this. Dumas was recently knocked out...
GPT HIT
Donte Johnson
67%win confidence
KO/TKO 61%
Submission 4%
Decision 35%
Johnson displays extremely high striking volume (14.06 SLpM), excellent striking accuracy (71%), and a significant striking differential (+5.62), overwhelming Dumas's much lower output. While Dumas possesses a modest grappling threat (1.31 TD avg, 35% TD accuracy), Johnson's relentless pace and offe...
FINAL: Norma Dumont by S-DEC
Vieira WLWLW 154d out Dumont WWWWW 574d out last 5
Ketlen Vieira last fought 154 days ago
W
vs Macy Chiasson · U-DEC2025-05-31
L
vs Kayla Harrison · U-DEC2024-04-13
W
vs Pannie Kianzad · U-DEC2023-07-22
L
vs Raquel Pennington · S-DEC2023-01-14
W
vs Holly Holm · S-DEC2022-05-21
Norma Dumont last fought 574 days ago, long layoff
W
vs Germaine de Randamie · U-DEC2024-04-06
W
vs Irene Aldana · U-DEC2024-03-30
W
vs Chelsea Chandler · U-DEC2023-07-15
W
vs Karol Rosa · U-DEC2023-04-22
W
vs Danyelle Wolf · U-DEC2022-09-10
Claude HIT
Norma Dumont
65%win confidence
KO/TKO 10%
Submission 15%
Decision 75%
Dumont's superior form (5-fight win streak), better striking defense (65% vs 51%), and positive striking differential (+1.7 vs -0.98) indicate control of standup exchanges. Common opponent analysis heavily favors Dumont - she defeated Irene Aldana while Vieira lost by KO. Dumont's successful weight ...
GPT HIT
Norma Dumont
75%win confidence
KO/TKO 10%
Submission 5%
Decision 85%
Norma Dumont holds clear statistical edges in striking volume, accuracy, and defense while also being more effective in the grappling exchanges and having better performances against common opponents. Vieira struggles with striking differential and absorbs more strikes than she lands, which will lik...
FINAL: Alice Ardelean by U-DEC
Ardelean WLL 154d out Ruiz LLLW 728d out last 5
Alice Ardelean last fought 154 days ago
W
vs Rayanne dos Santos · U-DEC2025-05-31
L
vs Melissa Martinez · U-DEC2024-04-27
L
vs Shauna Bannon · S-DEC2024-02-17
Montserrat Conejo Ruiz last fought 728 days ago, long layoff
L
vs Eduarda Moura · KO/TKO2023-11-04
L
vs Jaqueline Amorim · KO/TKO2023-08-12
L
vs Amanda Lemos · KO/TKO2021-07-17
W
vs Cheyanne Vlismas · U-DEC2021-03-20
Claude HIT
Alice Ardelean
72%win confidence
KO/TKO 25%
Submission 5%
Decision 70%
Ardelean's massive striking volume advantage (4.97 SLPM vs 0.79) combined with superior defensive metrics (52% vs 37%) creates a clear path to victory. While Conejo has been finished by strikes in 3 of her last 4 losses, Ardelean lacks finishing power, making a decision likely. The southpaw stance o...
GPT HIT
Alice Ardelean
72%win confidence
KO/TKO 15%
Submission 5%
Decision 80%
Ardelean holds a significant striking advantage in both volume and accuracy, with much better defensive metrics. Ruiz relies on wrestling, but her takedown defense is poor and her striking differential is highly negative. Ardelean's perfect takedown defense and Ruiz's low striking output point to Ar...
FINAL: Seokhyeon Ko by U-DEC
Rowe WLLWW 140d out Ko W 133d out last 5
Phil Rowe last fought 140 days ago
W
vs Ange Loosa · KO/TKO Punches2025-06-14
L
vs Jake Matthews · U-DEC2024-01-01
L
vs Neil Magny · S-DEC2023-06-24
W
vs Niko Price · KO/TKO2022-12-03
W
vs Jason Witt · KO/TKO2022-02-05
Seokhyeon Ko last fought 133 days ago
W
vs Oban Elliott · U-DEC2025-06-21
Claude MISS
Phil Rowe
68%win confidence
KO/TKO 55%
Submission 10%
Decision 35%
Rowe's massive 9-inch reach advantage at 80" creates a striking range where Ko simply cannot compete effectively. Despite Rowe's recent 3-fight skid, his 2 KO finishes show legitimate power at distance. Ko's UFC debut status and limited data suggest vulnerability to experienced strikers. The orthodo...
GPT HIT
Seokhyeon Ko
65%win confidence
KO/TKO 18%
Submission 7%
Decision 75%
Ko's superior striking defense (57% vs 55%), better striking differential (+0.27 vs -0.69), and significantly higher takedown output (2.0 per fight vs 0.7) should allow him to control the pace and score points, especially given Rowe's average takedown defense (56%). Rowe's 9-inch reach advantage is ...
FINAL: Talita Alencar by SUB Rear Naked Choke
Alencar WLW 210d out Carnelossi WLWWL 678d out last 5
Talita Alencar last fought 210 days ago
W
vs Vanessa Demopoulos · U-DEC2025-04-05
L
vs Stephanie Luciano · U-DEC2024-03-02
W
vs Rayanne dos Santos · S-DEC2023-12-09
Ariane Carnelossi last fought 678 days ago, long layoff
W
vs Piera Rodriguez · DQ2023-12-23
L
vs Loopy Godinez · U-DEC2022-05-07
W
vs Istela Nunes · SUB2021-10-16
W
vs Liang Na · KO/TKO2021-04-24
L
vs Angela Hill · KO/TKO2019-09-21
Claude MISS
Ariane Carnelossi
65%win confidence
KO/TKO 20%
Submission 25%
Decision 55%
Carnelossi's superior finishing ability (KO and submission wins) combined with better overall effectiveness metrics gives her multiple paths to victory. Her 66.7% win rate doubles Alencar's 33.3%, showing consistency against UFC competition. While Alencar has slightly better takedown defense, Carnel...
GPT MISS
Ariane Carnelossi
68%win confidence
KO/TKO 15%
Submission 10%
Decision 75%
Carnelossi has a higher striking accuracy, greater striking volume, and a significant takedown accuracy advantage. Alencar's striking defense is slightly better, but her negative strike differential and low offensive metrics limit her upside. Carnelossi's takedown defense is a concern, but Alencar's...