August 9, 2025
UFC Fight Night: Dolidze vs. Hernandez
Card complete. GPT 8/12 (67%) · Claude 9/12 (75%)
All results
Both models agree 9 of 12 fights
Cody Brundage over Eric McConico
Claude 72%
GPT 80%
GPT 80%
Anthony Hernandez over Roman Dolidze
Claude 72%
GPT 75%
GPT 75%
Elijah Smith over Toshiomi Kazama
Both call Decision
Claude 72%
GPT 75%
GPT 75%
Joselyne Edwards over Priscila Cachoeira
Both call Decision
Claude 68%
GPT 75%
GPT 75%
Uros Medic over Gilbert Urbina
Both call KO/TKO
Claude 75%
GPT 68%
GPT 68%
Christian Leroy Duncan over Eryk Anders
Claude 68%
GPT 72%
GPT 72%
Iasmin Lucindo over Angela Hill
Both call Decision
Claude 68%
GPT 70%
GPT 70%
Steve Erceg over Ode Osbourne
Both call Decision
Claude 65%
GPT 72%
GPT 72%
Julija Stoliarenko over Gabriella Fernandes
Both call Submission
Claude 68%
GPT 68%
GPT 68%
Double locks: both at 75% or higher 0 fights
Nothing clears the 75% bar from both models. The genie is hedging tonight.
Build your own list 9 match
Cody Brundage over Eric McConico
Claude 72%
GPT 80%
GPT 80%
Anthony Hernandez over Roman Dolidze
Claude 72%
GPT 75%
GPT 75%
Elijah Smith over Toshiomi Kazama
Both call Decision
Claude 72%
GPT 75%
GPT 75%
Joselyne Edwards over Priscila Cachoeira
Both call Decision
Claude 68%
GPT 75%
GPT 75%
Uros Medic over Gilbert Urbina
Both call KO/TKO
Claude 75%
GPT 68%
GPT 68%
Christian Leroy Duncan over Eryk Anders
Claude 68%
GPT 72%
GPT 72%
Iasmin Lucindo over Angela Hill
Both call Decision
Claude 68%
GPT 70%
GPT 70%
Steve Erceg over Ode Osbourne
Both call Decision
Claude 65%
GPT 72%
GPT 72%
Julija Stoliarenko over Gabriella Fernandes
Both call Submission
Claude 68%
GPT 68%
GPT 68%
Win confidence is the model's probability that its pick wins: 55 to 64 is a shrug, 65 to 74 is confident, 75 and up is the model betting its reputation.
KO/TKO, Submission, Decision is how the model splits the ways the fight ends, out of 100.
Odds are the sportsbook moneyline with the bookmaker margin removed, so the two percentages sum to 100. When a model's confidence beats the market's implied number, that gap is the value.
Elo is an opponent adjusted rating built from every UFC fight since 1994. Click any Elo number on the card for the full explanation, including what the star means.
FINAL: Anthony Hernandez by SUB Rear Naked Choke
Dolidze WWLWL 147d out Hernandez WWWWW 167d out last 5
Roman Dolidze last fought 147 days ago
W
vs Marvin Vettori · U-DEC2025-03-15
W
vs Kevin Holland · KO/TKO2024-04-13
L
vs Nassourdine Imavov · M-DEC2024-02-03
W
vs Anthony Smith · U-DEC2024-01-27
L
vs Marvin Vettori · U-DEC2023-03-18
Anthony Hernandez last fought 167 days ago
W
vs Brendan Allen · U-DEC2025-02-22
W
vs Michel Pereira · KO/TKO2024-04-27
W
vs Roman Kopylov · SUB2024-02-17
W
vs Edmen Shahbazyan · KO/TKO2023-05-20
W
vs Marc-Andre Barriault · SUB2022-09-17
Claude HIT
Anthony Hernandez
72%win confidence
KO/TKO 25%
Submission 30%
Decision 45%
Hernandez's superior grappling volume (6.64 TDAvg vs 1.33) and cardio advantage will be decisive. While Dolidze has KO power and performed better against common opponent Kevin Holland, Hernandez's 5-fight win streak shows elite momentum. His 65% TD defense and 2.3 submission average create multiple ...
GPT HIT
Anthony Hernandez
75%win confidence
KO/TKO 10%
Submission 50%
Decision 40%
Hernandez's pace, superior grappling metrics, and high submission output are likely to overwhelm Dolidze, whose takedown defense has been a consistent weakness. Despite Dolidze's historical edge against common opponents, Hernandez's volume, accuracy, and pressure-based style present significant matc...
FINAL: Steve Erceg by U-DEC
Erceg LLWLW 133d out Osbourne WLLLW 126d out last 5
Steve Erceg last fought 133 days ago
L
vs Brandon Moreno · U-DEC2025-03-29
L
vs Kai Kara-France · KO/TKO2024-03-09
W
vs Matt Schnell · KO/TKO2024-03-02
L
vs Alexandre Pantoja · U-DEC2023-12-09
W
vs Alessandro Costa · U-DEC2023-11-11
Ode Osbourne last fought 126 days ago
W
vs Luis Gurule · KO/TKO Punch2025-04-05
L
vs Ronaldo Rodriguez · U-DEC2024-03-30
L
vs Jafel Filho · SUB2024-03-16
L
vs Asu Almabayev · SUB2023-08-05
W
vs Charles Johnson · S-DEC2023-02-25
Claude HIT
Steve Erceg
65%win confidence
KO/TKO 20%
Submission 15%
Decision 65%
Erceg's superior striking defense (53% vs 45%) and volume advantage (4.37 vs 3.26 SLPM) should control this matchup. Osbourne's 4-fight losing streak and southpaw stance create openings for the orthodox Erceg. Despite Osbourne's 5-inch reach advantage, his 40% striking accuracy is concerning against...
GPT HIT
Steve Erceg
72%win confidence
KO/TKO 18%
Submission 10%
Decision 72%
Erceg's striking is more accurate and defensively sound, landing at a higher rate while absorbing fewer clean shots than Osbourne. Despite Osbourne's slight edge in takedown defense and submission attempts, Erceg's overall output, strike differential, and control metrics point to him winning a compe...
FINAL: Iasmin Lucindo by U-DEC
Lucindo LWWWW 153d out Hill WLWWL 174d out last 5
Iasmin Lucindo last fought 153 days ago
L
vs Amanda Lemos · U-DEC2025-03-08
W
vs Marina Rodriguez · S-DEC2024-04-13
W
vs Karolina Kowalkiewicz · U-DEC2023-12-09
W
vs Polyana Viana · SUB2023-08-12
W
vs Brogan Walker · U-DEC2023-04-22
Angela Hill last fought 174 days ago
W
vs Ketlen Souza · S-DEC2025-02-15
L
vs Tabatha Ricci · U-DEC2024-03-16
W
vs Luana Pinheiro · SUB2023-12-23
W
vs Denise Gomes · U-DEC2023-11-04
L
vs Mackenzie Dern · U-DEC2023-05-20
Claude HIT
Iasmin Lucindo
68%win confidence
KO/TKO 10%
Submission 25%
Decision 65%
Lucindo's wrestling advantage (2.4 TDAvg vs 0.76) and superior win rate (85.7% vs 46.4%) indicate a clear path to victory. Despite Hill's volume edge (5.46 vs 3.52 SLPM), Lucindo's 66% striking defense and age advantage (22 vs 40) suggest she can weather the storm and control with grappling. Lucindo...
GPT HIT
Iasmin Lucindo
70%win confidence
KO/TKO 8%
Submission 12%
Decision 80%
Lucindo's superior grappling metrics, higher takedown accuracy, and strong defensive numbers (striking and takedowns) give her an edge over Hill, who relies heavily on volume striking but is less effective defensively and in grappling exchanges. Hill's experience and output keep her competitive, but...
FINAL: Andre Fili by S-DEC
Fili LLWWL 167d out Rodriguez LWWLW 133d out last 5
Andre Fili last fought 167 days ago
L
vs Melquizael Costa · SUB Guillotine Choke2025-02-22
L
vs Dan Ige · KO/TKO2024-02-10
W
vs Cub Swanson · S-DEC2024-01-27
W
vs Lucas Almeida · KO/TKO2023-12-16
L
vs Nathaniel Wood · U-DEC2023-07-22
Christian Rodriguez last fought 133 days ago
L
vs Melquizael Costa · U-DEC2025-03-29
W
vs Austin Bashi · U-DEC2025-01-11
W
vs Isaac Dulgarian · S-DEC2024-03-16
L
vs Julian Erosa · SUB2024-02-03
W
vs Cameron Saaiman · U-DEC2023-10-14
Claude HIT
Andre Fili
68%win confidence
KO/TKO 22%
Submission 15%
Decision 63%
Fili's significant physical advantages (4-inch height, 3-inch reach) combined with his superior takedown defense (70% vs 65%) should allow him to control distance and dictate the fight. Rodriguez's submission game (1.1 sub avg) poses the primary threat, but Fili's experience and improved defensive w...
GPT MISS
Christian Rodriguez
68%win confidence
KO/TKO 13%
Submission 22%
Decision 65%
Rodriguez holds clear statistical advantages in striking accuracy, striking defense, and submission threat. His positive strike differential (+1.09) and lower strikes absorbed per minute indicate superior defensive skills. Fili's volume and wrestling are respectable, but Rodriguez's submission rate ...
FINAL: Jean Matsumoto by S-DEC
Johns LWWLW 237d out Matsumoto LWW 167d out last 5
Miles Johns last fought 237 days ago
L
vs Felipe Lima · U-DEC2024-12-14
W
vs Cody Gibson · U-DEC2024-03-23
W
vs Douglas Silva de Andrade · U-DEC2024-01-13
L
vs Dan Argueta · Overturned2023-09-23
W
vs Vince Morales · U-DEC2022-11-19
Jean Matsumoto last fought 167 days ago
L
vs Rob Font · S-DEC2025-02-22
W
vs Brad Katona · U-DEC2024-04-27
W
vs Dan Argueta · SUB2024-04-06
Claude MISS
Miles Johns
72%win confidence
KO/TKO 15%
Submission 10%
Decision 75%
Johns' superior striking defense (69% vs 46%) and takedown defense (85% vs 57%) create significant defensive advantages. While Matsumoto has higher output (5.2 SLPM), his 40% accuracy is concerning against Johns' more measured approach. The common opponent analysis heavily favors Matsumoto (he submi...
GPT HIT
Jean Matsumoto
62%win confidence
KO/TKO 21%
Submission 14%
Decision 65%
Matsumoto's higher striking volume and finishing instincts give him an edge, though his defensive liabilities and Johns' takedown defense suggest a competitive bout. Matsumoto's recent win over a shared opponent and more diverse attack tip the scales slightly in his favor, but Johns' defense and exp...
FINAL: Christian Leroy Duncan by KO/TKO Punches
Anders WLWLW 244d out Duncan WWLWL 140d out last 5
Eryk Anders last fought 244 days ago
W
vs Chris Weidman · KO/TKO Punches2024-12-07
L
vs Chris Weidman · 2024-11-16
W
vs Jamie Pickett · U-DEC2024-03-02
L
vs Marc-Andre Barriault · U-DEC2023-06-10
W
vs Kyle Daukaus · KO/TKO2022-12-03
Christian Leroy Duncan last fought 140 days ago
W
vs Andrey Pulyaev · U-DEC2025-03-22
W
vs Claudio Ribeiro · KO/TKO2024-03-02
L
vs Gregory Rodrigues · U-DEC2024-02-17
W
vs Denis Tiuliulin · KO/TKO2023-11-18
L
vs Armen Petrosyan · U-DEC2023-06-17
Claude HIT
Christian Leroy Duncan
68%win confidence
KO/TKO 45%
Submission 5%
Decision 50%
Duncan's striking superiority is evident with 62% accuracy vs Anders' 47%, plus a positive strike differential (+1.14 vs -0.76). Duncan's 4-inch reach advantage and switch stance create targeting problems for the southpaw Anders. While Anders has better wrestling (1.79 TD/fight), his 26% accuracy is...
GPT HIT
Christian Leroy Duncan
72%win confidence
KO/TKO 18%
Submission 2%
Decision 80%
Duncan holds a significant statistical edge in striking accuracy (62% vs 47%) and striking volume (4.71 SLpM vs 3.41 SLpM), along with a positive strike differential (+1.14 vs -0.76). Anders' wrestling is unlikely to be a major factor given his low takedown accuracy (26%) and Duncan's respectable 64...
FINAL: Julius Walker by U-DEC
Walker L 167d out Cerqueira L 167d out last 5
Julius Walker last fought 167 days ago
L
vs Alonzo Menifield · S-DEC2025-02-22
Rafael Cerqueira last fought 167 days ago
L
vs Modestas Bukauskas · KO/TKO Punches2025-02-22
Claude HIT
Julius Walker
58%win confidence
KO/TKO 30%
Submission 15%
Decision 55%
This matchup features two UFC debutants with limited data. Cerqueira's alarming 22% striking defense and absorption of 32.94 strikes per minute in his single recorded bout suggests major defensive liabilities. While he showed 100% accuracy, the 1.18 SLPM output is extremely low. Walker's orthodox st...
GPT MISS
Rafael Cerqueira
60%win confidence
KO/TKO 20%
Submission 5%
Decision 75%
Despite highly limited data and a concerning defensive profile, Cerqueira has at least demonstrated offensive output and striking accuracy, while Walker has no measurable UFC statistics. Cerqueira's significant strikes landed per minute and 100% accuracy suggest some offensive potential, but his ext...
FINAL: Elijah Smith by KO/TKO Slam
Smith W 174d out Kazama WLL 524d out last 5
Elijah Smith last fought 174 days ago
W
vs Vince Morales · U-DEC2025-02-15
Toshiomi Kazama last fought 524 days ago, long layoff
W
vs Charalampos Grigoriou · SUB2024-03-02
L
vs Garrett Armfield · KO/TKO2023-08-26
L
vs Rinya Nakamura · KO/TKO2023-02-04
Claude HIT
Elijah Smith
72%win confidence
KO/TKO 15%
Submission 25%
Decision 60%
Smith's superior grappling metrics (5 TDAvg vs 1.68, 45% accuracy vs 12%) combined with perfect takedown defense creates a dominant wrestling advantage. Kazama's recent submission wins came against lower-level competition, while his KO losses expose vulnerability to pressure. Smith's 71" reach advan...
GPT HIT
Elijah Smith
75%win confidence
KO/TKO 10%
Submission 15%
Decision 75%
Smith's high-volume wrestling and perfect takedown defense should neutralize Kazama's limited offensive output. Smith lands more strikes, absorbs slightly more, but controls grappling exchanges with far superior takedown ability and 100% defense. Kazama's low takedown accuracy and striking volume ma...
FINAL: Joselyne Edwards by KO/TKO Punch
Edwards WWLLW 105d out Cachoeira WLLWW 147d out last 5
Joselyne Edwards last fought 105 days ago
W
vs Chelsea Chandler · KO/TKO Punches2025-04-26
W
vs Tamires Vidal · SUB2024-04-27
L
vs Ailin Perez · U-DEC2024-01-01
L
vs Nora Cornolle · U-DEC2023-09-02
W
vs Lucie Pudilova · S-DEC2023-04-15
Priscila Cachoeira last fought 147 days ago
W
vs Josiane Nunes · KO/TKO Punch2025-03-15
L
vs Jasmine Jasudavicius · SUB2024-01-20
L
vs Miranda Maverick · SUB2023-07-29
W
vs Ariane da Silva · KO/TKO2022-08-13
W
vs Ji Yeon Kim · U-DEC2022-02-26
Claude HIT
Joselyne Edwards
68%win confidence
KO/TKO 20%
Submission 25%
Decision 55%
Edwards holds significant advantages in striking defense (49% vs 43%), reach (5" advantage), and recent form with 2 submission wins. Cachoeira's poor striking differential (-3.27) and vulnerability to submissions (3 sub losses in last 5) plays into Edwards' improving ground game. Edwards' superior c...
GPT HIT
Joselyne Edwards
75%win confidence
KO/TKO 10%
Submission 5%
Decision 85%
Edwards holds clear statistical advantages in striking accuracy, strike differential, and grappling activity. Cachoeira's high absorption rate and negative strike differential suggest she is vulnerable to volume strikers, while Edwards' moderate takedown ability offers additional paths to control. C...
FINAL: Uros Medic by KO/TKO Punch
Medic LWLWW 209d out Urbina LWL 552d out last 5
Uros Medic last fought 209 days ago
L
vs Punahele Soriano · KO/TKO Punch2025-01-11
W
vs Tim Means · KO/TKO2024-04-27
L
vs Myktybek Orolbai · SUB2023-11-18
W
vs Matthew Semelsberger · KO/TKO2023-07-29
W
vs Omar Morales · KO/TKO2022-05-21
Gilbert Urbina last fought 552 days ago, long layoff
L
vs Charles Radtke · KO/TKO2024-02-03
W
vs Orion Cosce · KO/TKO2023-05-20
L
vs Bryan Battle · SUB2021-08-28
Claude HIT
Uros Medic
75%win confidence
KO/TKO 65%
Submission 10%
Decision 25%
Medic's 3 KO/TKO wins in last 5 fights showcase elite finishing power, while Urbina's 0% takedown defense and recent KO loss to lower competition exposes major defensive liabilities. Medic's superior striking defense (58% vs 44%) and southpaw stance creates awkward angles. Urbina's height won't comp...
GPT HIT
Uros Medic
68%win confidence
KO/TKO 55%
Submission 7%
Decision 38%
Medic holds superior striking accuracy, better striking defense, and a significant edge in strike differential. Urbina's grappling volume and submission threat are offset by his very poor takedown defense and high strikes absorbed per minute, making him vulnerable to Medic's efficient and accurate s...
FINAL: Gabriella Fernandes by U-DEC
Fernandes LWLL 258d out Stoliarenko LWLWL 552d out last 5
Gabriella Fernandes last fought 258 days ago
L
vs Wang Cong · 2024-11-23
W
vs Carli Judice · S-DEC2024-01-13
L
vs Tereza Bleda · U-DEC2023-06-17
L
vs Jasmine Jasudavicius · U-DEC2023-02-25
Julija Stoliarenko last fought 552 days ago, long layoff
L
vs Luana Carolina · KO/TKO2024-02-03
W
vs Molly McCann · SUB2023-07-22
L
vs Chelsea Chandler · KO/TKO2022-10-01
W
vs Jessica-Rose Clark · SUB2022-07-02
L
vs Alexis Davis · U-DEC2022-02-05
Claude MISS
Julija Stoliarenko
68%win confidence
KO/TKO 15%
Submission 55%
Decision 30%
Stoliarenko's elite submission game (1.7 subs per fight) presents a nightmare matchup for Fernandes, who has shown defensive vulnerabilities on the ground. Fernandes' 59% takedown defense won't hold up against Stoliarenko's persistent grappling approach. While Fernandes has the striking advantage on...
GPT MISS
Julija Stoliarenko
68%win confidence
KO/TKO 5%
Submission 57%
Decision 38%
Stoliarenko's high submission average and aggressive grappling present a clear path to victory against Fernandes, who has weak takedown defense and limited submission threat. While Fernandes is a more accurate striker, she absorbs more damage than she lands and struggles against opponents with stron...
FINAL: Eric McConico by S-DEC
Brundage WLLWW 160d out McConico L 167d out last 5
Cody Brundage last fought 160 days ago
W
vs Julian Marquez · KO/TKO Punches2025-03-01
L
vs Bo Nickal · SUB2024-04-13
L
vs Abdul Razak Alhassan · CNC2024-02-03
W
vs Zach Reese · KO/TKO2023-12-02
W
vs Jacob Malkoun · DQ2023-09-23
Eric McConico last fought 167 days ago
L
vs Nursulton Ruziboev · KO/TKO Punch2025-02-22
Claude MISS
Cody Brundage
72%win confidence
KO/TKO 25%
Submission 20%
Decision 55%
McConico's complete lack of UFC data makes him a massive unknown, but Brundage's proven UFC experience and well-rounded skillset should carry him through. Brundage's 2.31 takedowns per fight and 50% accuracy will likely dominate a debuting fighter. The southpaw stance of McConico could cause early i...
GPT MISS
Cody Brundage
80%win confidence
KO/TKO 10%
Submission 60%
Decision 30%
Brundage has significant UFC experience and proven grappling ability, while McConico enters with no available UFC-level statistics. Brundage's takedowns and submission attempts are at a high rate, and McConico is untested at this level, making Brundage a clear favorite to control and finish on the g...