October 18, 2025
UFC Fight Night: De Ridder vs. Allen
Card complete. GPT 6/13 (46%) · Claude 7/13 (54%)
All results
Both models agree 10 of 13 fights
Manon Fiorot over Jasmine Jasudavicius
Both call Decision
Claude 78%
GPT 78%
GPT 78%
Drew Dober over Kyle Prepolec
Both call KO/TKO
Claude 78%
GPT 77%
GPT 77%
Tainara Lisboa over Melissa Croden
Claude 78%
GPT 75%
GPT 75%
Stephanie Luciano over Ravena Oliveira
Both call Decision
Claude 72%
GPT 75%
GPT 75%
HyunSung Park over Bruno Silva
Claude 72%
GPT 74%
GPT 74%
Yousri Belgaroui over Azamat Bekoev
Claude 68%
GPT 75%
GPT 75%
Kevin Holland over Mike Malott
Both call Decision
Claude 68%
GPT 68%
GPT 68%
Marlon Vera over Aiemann Zahabi
Both call Decision
Claude 62%
GPT 72%
GPT 72%
Charles Jourdain over Davey Grant
Claude 65%
GPT 65%
GPT 65%
Cody Gibson over Aoriqileng
Claude 62%
GPT 65%
GPT 65%
Double locks: both at 75% or higher 3 fights
Manon Fiorot over Jasmine Jasudavicius
Both call Decision
Claude 78%
GPT 78%
GPT 78%
Drew Dober over Kyle Prepolec
Both call KO/TKO
Claude 78%
GPT 77%
GPT 77%
Tainara Lisboa over Melissa Croden
Claude 78%
GPT 75%
GPT 75%
Build your own list 10 match
Manon Fiorot over Jasmine Jasudavicius
Both call Decision
Claude 78%
GPT 78%
GPT 78%
Drew Dober over Kyle Prepolec
Both call KO/TKO
Claude 78%
GPT 77%
GPT 77%
Tainara Lisboa over Melissa Croden
Claude 78%
GPT 75%
GPT 75%
Stephanie Luciano over Ravena Oliveira
Both call Decision
Claude 72%
GPT 75%
GPT 75%
HyunSung Park over Bruno Silva
Claude 72%
GPT 74%
GPT 74%
Yousri Belgaroui over Azamat Bekoev
Claude 68%
GPT 75%
GPT 75%
Kevin Holland over Mike Malott
Both call Decision
Claude 68%
GPT 68%
GPT 68%
Marlon Vera over Aiemann Zahabi
Both call Decision
Claude 62%
GPT 72%
GPT 72%
Charles Jourdain over Davey Grant
Claude 65%
GPT 65%
GPT 65%
Cody Gibson over Aoriqileng
Claude 62%
GPT 65%
GPT 65%
Win confidence is the model's probability that its pick wins: 55 to 64 is a shrug, 65 to 74 is confident, 75 and up is the model betting its reputation.
KO/TKO, Submission, Decision is how the model splits the ways the fight ends, out of 100.
Odds are the sportsbook moneyline with the bookmaker margin removed, so the two percentages sum to 100. When a model's confidence beats the market's implied number, that gap is the value.
Elo is an opponent adjusted rating built from every UFC fight since 1994. Click any Elo number on the card for the full explanation, including what the star means.
FINAL: Brendan Allen by KO/TKO
Ridder WWL 168d out Allen WLWLW 91d out last 5
Reinier de Ridder last fought 168 days ago
W
vs Bo Nickal · KO/TKO Knee2025-05-03
W
vs Kevin Holland · SUB Rear Naked Choke2025-01-18
L
vs win · 2024-11-09
Brendan Allen last fought 91 days ago
W
vs Marvin Vettori · U-DEC2025-07-19
L
vs Anthony Hernandez · U-DEC2025-02-22
W
vs Chris Curtis · S-DEC2024-04-06
L
vs Nassourdine Imavov · U-DEC2024-04-06
W
vs Paul Craig · SUB2023-11-18
Claude HIT
Brendan Allen
75%win confidence
KO/TKO 15%
Submission 55%
Decision 30%
Allen has established UFC experience with proven submission skills (1.3 subs per fight) while de Ridder makes his UFC debut with no recorded statistics. Allen's 75% win rate and recent submission victories over Paul Craig and Andre Muniz demonstrate elite grappling. De Ridder's ONE Championship pedi...
GPT MISS
Reinier de Ridder
65%win confidence
KO/TKO 5%
Submission 65%
Decision 30%
Despite a lack of UFC stats, de Ridder is an elite grappler with a proven record in high-level MMA, particularly in submission grappling. Allen is well-rounded and dangerous on the ground, but his takedown defense (58%) and tendency to engage in grappling exchanges may play into de Ridder's strength...
FINAL: Mike Malott by U-DEC
Holland LWWLL 91d out Malott WLLWW 161d out last 5
Kevin Holland last fought 91 days ago
L
vs Daniel Rodriguez · U-DEC2025-07-19
W
vs Vicente Luque · SUB Anaconda Choke2025-06-07
W
vs Gunnar Nelson · U-DEC2025-03-22
L
vs Reinier de Ridder · SUB Rear Naked Choke2025-01-18
L
vs Roman Dolidze · KO/TKO2024-04-13
Mike Malott last fought 161 days ago
W
vs Charles Radtke · KO/TKO Punch2025-05-10
L
vs win · 2024-11-02
L
vs Neil Magny · KO/TKO2024-01-20
W
vs Adam Fugitt · SUB2023-06-10
W
vs Yohan Lainesse · SUB2023-02-25
Claude MISS
Kevin Holland
68%win confidence
KO/TKO 25%
Submission 20%
Decision 55%
Holland's significant reach advantage (8 inches) and superior striking volume (4.24 vs 3.85 SLPM) should control distance against the Canadian. Despite recent losses, Holland's experience edge and defensive wrestling improvements make him difficult to control. Malott's poor takedown defense (16%) ne...
GPT MISS
Kevin Holland
68%win confidence
KO/TKO 22%
Submission 12%
Decision 66%
Holland holds a significant 8-inch reach advantage and superior striking metrics, enabling him to control range and tempo. While Malott has higher takedown and submission averages, his takedown defense is very weak (16%), making him unlikely to consistently impose his grappling. Holland's experience...
FINAL: Aiemann Zahabi by S-DEC
Vera LLWLW 587d out Zahabi WLWWW 161d out last 5
Marlon Vera last fought 587 days ago, long layoff
L
vs Sean O'Malley · U-DEC2024-03-09
L
vs Deiveson Figueiredo · U-DEC2024-02-24
W
vs Pedro Munhoz · U-DEC2023-08-19
L
vs Cory Sandhagen · S-DEC2023-03-25
W
vs Dominick Cruz · KO/TKO2022-08-13
Aiemann Zahabi last fought 161 days ago
W
vs Jose Aldo · U-DEC2025-05-10
L
vs win · 2024-11-02
W
vs Javid Basharat · U-DEC2024-03-02
W
vs Aoriqileng · KO/TKO2023-06-10
W
vs Ricky Turcios · U-DEC2022-07-09
Claude MISS
Marlon Vera
62%win confidence
KO/TKO 20%
Submission 25%
Decision 55%
Despite a 3-fight losing streak, Vera faced elite competition (O'Malley, Sandhagen). His superior grappling threat (0.8 subs per fight vs 0 for Zahabi) and proven durability give him paths to victory. Zahabi's 71% striking defense is impressive but untested against Vera's diverse attack mixing leg k...
GPT MISS
Marlon Vera
72%win confidence
KO/TKO 20%
Submission 15%
Decision 65%
Marlon Vera offers greater offensive volume, a proven ability to finish fights, and more diversity in striking and grappling. Zahabi is defensively sound and hard to finish, but Vera's pressure, switch stance attacks, and higher-level resume suggest he'll edge out rounds. Zahabi's low offensive outp...
FINAL: Manon Fiorot by KO/TKO Punches
Fiorot LWWWW 161d out Jasudavicius WWLWW 161d out last 5
Manon Fiorot last fought 161 days ago
L
vs Valentina Shevchenko · U-DEC2025-05-10
W
vs Erin Blanchfield · U-DEC2024-03-30
W
vs Rose Namajunas · U-DEC2023-09-02
W
vs Katlyn Cerminara · U-DEC2022-10-22
W
vs Jennifer Maia · U-DEC2022-03-26
Jasmine Jasudavicius last fought 161 days ago
W
vs Jessica Andrade · SUB Rear Naked Choke2025-05-10
W
vs Mayra Bueno Silva · U-DEC2025-02-01
L
vs win · 2024-11-02
W
vs Fatima Kline · U-DEC2024-02-03
W
vs Priscila Cachoeira · SUB2024-01-20
Claude HIT
Manon Fiorot
78%win confidence
KO/TKO 15%
Submission 7%
Decision 78%
Fiorot's superior striking defense (68% vs 51%) and significant strike differential (+2.49 vs +0.04) create a clear path to victory. Her 93% takedown defense will neutralize Jasudavicius's wrestling advantage (2.55 TD/fight), forcing a striking battle where Fiorot holds every advantage. Jasudavicius...
GPT HIT
Manon Fiorot
78%win confidence
KO/TKO 13%
Submission 2%
Decision 85%
Fiorot's superior striking volume, elite defensive metrics, and exceptional takedown defense (93%) make her a difficult stylistic matchup for Jasudavicius. Despite Jasudavicius' grappling prowess and higher takedown average, Fiorot's ability to avoid being grounded and control exchanges at range sho...
FINAL: Aoriqileng by KO/TKO Punch
Gibson LLLWL 217d out Aoriqileng LLWLW 567d out last 5
Cody Gibson last fought 217 days ago
L
vs Da'Mon Blackshear · SUB Kimura2025-03-15
L
vs win · 2024-11-02
L
vs Miles Johns · U-DEC2024-03-23
W
vs Brian Kelleher · SUB2024-02-10
L
vs Brad Katona · U-DEC2023-08-19
Aoriqileng last fought 567 days ago, long layoff
L
vs Raul Rosas Jr. · U-DEC2024-03-30
L
vs Daniel Marcos · CNC2024-02-10
W
vs Johnny Munoz · U-DEC2023-10-07
L
vs Aiemann Zahabi · KO/TKO2023-06-10
W
vs Jay Perrin · U-DEC2022-08-20
Claude MISS
Cody Gibson
62%win confidence
KO/TKO 25%
Submission 45%
Decision 30%
Gibson's grappling advantage is significant - his 68% takedown defense versus Aoriqileng's 58% combined with his submission threat (0.4 per fight) creates a clear path to victory. Aoriqileng's recent form shows vulnerability, losing 3 of his last 4 fights, including a KO loss. Gibson's recent submis...
GPT MISS
Cody Gibson
65%win confidence
KO/TKO 15%
Submission 10%
Decision 75%
Gibson's superior defensive metrics (57% striking defense vs. 48% for Aoriqileng), better takedown defense (68% vs. 58%), and more balanced striking-to-absorption ratio give him a technical edge. While Aoriqileng is more aggressive and accurate, he absorbs significantly more strikes than he lands, w...
FINAL: Kyle Nelson by U-DEC
Nelson WLWWL 567d out Frevola LLWWW 560d out last 5
Kyle Nelson last fought 567 days ago, long layoff
W
vs Bill Algeo · KO/TKO2024-03-30
L
vs Steve Garcia · KO/TKO2024-03-23
W
vs Fernando Padilla · U-DEC2023-09-16
W
vs Blake Bilder · U-DEC2023-06-10
L
vs Dooho Choi · M-DEC2023-02-04
Matt Frevola last fought 560 days ago, long layoff
L
vs Fares Ziam · KO/TKO2024-04-06
L
vs Benoit Saint Denis · KO/TKO2023-11-11
W
vs Drew Dober · KO/TKO2023-05-06
W
vs Ottman Azaitar · KO/TKO2022-11-12
W
vs Genaro Valdez · KO/TKO2022-01-22
Claude HIT
Kyle Nelson
58%win confidence
KO/TKO 30%
Submission 15%
Decision 55%
Nelson's superior performance against their common opponent Marco Polo Reyes (Nelson won by KO, Frevola lost by KO) indicates a stylistic edge. Frevola is on a dangerous 3-fight KO loss streak, showing significant durability issues. Nelson's switch stance and better defensive metrics (51% vs 57% str...
GPT MISS
Matt Frevola
68%win confidence
KO/TKO 18%
Submission 22%
Decision 60%
Frevola's superior wrestling volume (2.39 TDs per fight, 39% accuracy) and higher submission activity (1.0 SubAvg) give him the edge in grappling exchanges, where Nelson has struggled defensively at times. While Nelson performs better against common opponents and has a slight striking accuracy advan...
FINAL: Charles Jourdain by SUB Guillotine Choke
Jourdain LLLWW 350d out Grant WLWWL 307d out last 5
Charles Jourdain last fought 350 days ago
L
vs win · 2024-11-02
L
vs Jean Silva · KO/TKO2024-01-27
L
vs Sean Woodson · S-DEC2024-01-20
W
vs Ricardo Ramos · SUB2023-09-23
W
vs Kron Gracie · U-DEC2023-05-06
Davey Grant last fought 307 days ago
W
vs Ramon Taveras · U-DEC2024-12-14
L
vs Daniel Marcos · S-DEC2023-07-22
W
vs Raphael Assuncao · SUB2023-03-11
W
vs Louis Smolka · KO/TKO2022-05-14
L
vs Adrian Yanez · S-DEC2021-11-20
Claude HIT
Charles Jourdain
65%win confidence
KO/TKO 45%
Submission 20%
Decision 35%
Jourdain's significant striking volume advantage (5.48 vs 4.77 SLPM) combined with Grant's age (38 years old) and 511-day layoff creates a clear path to victory. Jourdain's striking differential of +1.13 versus Grant's +0.95 shows superior offensive output. Grant hasn't fought since July 2023, and a...
GPT HIT
Charles Jourdain
65%win confidence
KO/TKO 19%
Submission 13%
Decision 68%
Jourdain's higher striking output, superior accuracy, and ability to switch stances should allow him to outpoint Grant in a competitive standup affair. Grant's wrestling advantage is somewhat negated by Jourdain's decent scrambling and Grant's historically inconsistent control on the mat. Both fight...
FINAL: Bruno Silva by SUB Rear Naked Choke
Silva LLLLW 133d out Park WWW 154d out last 5
Bruno Silva last fought 133 days ago
L
vs Joshua Van · KO/TKO Punches2025-06-07
L
vs Marc-Andre Barriault · KO/TKO Elbows2025-05-10
L
vs Manel Kape · KO/TKO Punches2024-12-14
L
vs Chris Weidman · U-DEC2024-03-30
W
vs Cody Durden · KO/TKO2024-02-10
HyunSung Park last fought 154 days ago
W
vs Carlos Hernandez · SUB Rear Naked Choke2025-05-17
W
vs Shannon Ross · KO/TKO2023-12-09
W
vs SeungGuk Choi · SUB2023-02-04
Claude MISS
HyunSung Park
72%win confidence
KO/TKO 25%
Submission 55%
Decision 20%
Park's perfect takedown defense (100%) and massive submission threat (2.6 sub avg) create a nightmare matchup for Silva. Silva's erratic weight cutting between middleweight and flyweight (2 weight class changes) suggests severe depletion issues. Park's 8-inch reach disadvantage is mitigated by his s...
GPT MISS
HyunSung Park
74%win confidence
KO/TKO 13%
Submission 22%
Decision 65%
HyunSung Park displays superior defensive metrics, notably a much higher striking defense (59% vs. 41%) and a positive strike differential, while Bruno Silva absorbs significantly more damage than he dishes out. Park's perfect takedown defense (100%) and higher submission average (2.6 per fight) giv...
FINAL: Djorden Santos by U-DEC
Barlow LWW 230d out Santos L 223d out last 5
Danny Barlow last fought 230 days ago
L
vs Sam Patterson · KO/TKO Punch2025-03-01
W
vs Nikolay Veretennikov · S-DEC2024-03-02
W
vs Josh Quinlan · KO/TKO2024-02-17
Djorden Santos last fought 223 days ago
L
vs Ozzy Diaz · U-DEC2025-03-08
Claude MISS
Danny Barlow
68%win confidence
KO/TKO 30%
Submission 5%
Decision 65%
Barlow enters on a 3-fight win streak with superior momentum and UFC experience. His 4-inch reach advantage and southpaw stance create awkward angles for the orthodox Santos. Santos lacks UFC experience (0-0 record) and his striking differential (+2.94) comes from regional competition. Barlow's perf...
GPT HIT
Djorden Santos
62%win confidence
KO/TKO 18%
Submission 2%
Decision 80%
Both fighters have high output and similar striking defense, but Santos edges Barlow in striking accuracy, strike differential, and adds a limited but statistically significant wrestling threat. Barlow's perfect takedown defense should neutralize most grappling, but Santos' volume, efficiency, and m...
FINAL: Drew Dober by KO/TKO Punches
Prepolec LLL 161d out Dober LLLWL 203d out last 5
Kyle Prepolec last fought 161 days ago
L
vs Benoit Saint Denis · SUB Arm Triangle2025-05-10
L
vs Austin Hubbard · U-DEC2019-09-14
L
vs Nordine Taleb · U-DEC2019-05-04
Drew Dober last fought 203 days ago
L
vs Manuel Torres · KO/TKO Punches2025-03-29
L
vs Jean Silva · KO/TKO2024-02-03
L
vs Renato Moicano · U-DEC2024-02-03
W
vs Ricky Glenn · KO/TKO2023-10-07
L
vs Matt Frevola · KO/TKO2023-05-06
Claude HIT
Drew Dober
78%win confidence
KO/TKO 65%
Submission 5%
Decision 30%
Dober's significant experience advantage (25+ UFC fights vs 2) and superior striking volume (4.39 vs 3.2 SLPM) overwhelm the inactive Prepolec. Prepolec hasn't fought since 2019 (5+ year layoff) while Dober remains active despite recent losses to elite competition. Dober's 40% striking accuracy with...
GPT HIT
Drew Dober
77%win confidence
KO/TKO 62%
Submission 5%
Decision 33%
Drew Dober holds significant statistical advantages in striking volume, accuracy, and durability. Prepolec is hit frequently, absorbs more strikes than he lands, and has a low takedown defense, making him vulnerable to Dober's pressure boxing and power. Dober also boasts higher finishing rates and a...
FINAL: Stephanie Luciano by SUB Rear Naked Choke
Luciano LW 217d out Oliveira L 735d out last 5
Stephanie Luciano last fought 217 days ago
L
vs Sam Hughes · S-DEC2025-03-15
W
vs Talita Alencar · U-DEC2024-03-02
Ravena Oliveira last fought 735 days ago, long layoff
L
vs Tainara Lisboa · U-DEC2023-10-14
Claude HIT
Stephanie Luciano
72%win confidence
KO/TKO 15%
Submission 10%
Decision 75%
Luciano's significant striking volume advantage (5.3 SLPM vs 1.0 SLPM) combined with superior defensive metrics (68% vs 48%) creates a clear path to victory. Oliveira's recent loss at bantamweight and drop to strawweight suggests potential weight cut issues. Luciano's 2-0 UFC record with consistent ...
GPT HIT
Stephanie Luciano
75%win confidence
KO/TKO 5%
Submission 5%
Decision 90%
Luciano holds a clear edge in striking volume, accuracy, and defensive metrics. Her significant strike differential (+2.77) and high defensive efficiency (68%) outclass Oliveira, who has a negative striking differential and absorbs more than she lands. While Oliveira's takedown numbers are higher, L...
FINAL: Yousri Belgaroui by KO/TKO Punches
Bekoev W 168d out Belgaroui last 5
Azamat Bekoev last fought 168 days ago
W
vs Ryan Loder · KO/TKO Punch2025-05-03
Yousri Belgaroui no UFC fights on record
Claude HIT
Yousri Belgaroui
68%win confidence
KO/TKO 45%
Submission 10%
Decision 45%
Belgaroui's massive physical advantages (5-inch height, 7-inch reach) combined with proven UFC striking metrics give him a clear edge over the debuting Bekoev. With 4.43 SLPM and 60% accuracy, Belgaroui can utilize his range effectively. Bekoev's lack of UFC data and shorter reach make him vulnerabl...
GPT HIT
Yousri Belgaroui
75%win confidence
KO/TKO 25%
Submission 5%
Decision 70%
Yousri Belgaroui holds a significant statistical advantage in striking volume, accuracy, and defense. His high significant strike rate (4.43 SLpM at 60% accuracy) and solid takedown defense (81%) suggest he can control the range and pace of the fight. Azamat Bekoev's lack of available UFC stats and ...
FINAL: Melissa Croden by KO/TKO Punches
Croden Lisboa LWW 154d out last 5
Melissa Croden no UFC fights on record
Tainara Lisboa last fought 154 days ago
L
vs Luana Santos · SUB Keylock2025-05-17
W
vs Ravena Oliveira · U-DEC2023-10-14
W
vs Jessica-Rose Clark · SUB2023-05-13
Claude MISS
Tainara Lisboa
78%win confidence
KO/TKO 15%
Submission 50%
Decision 35%
Lisboa's complete statistical profile versus Croden's lack of UFC data creates a significant mismatch. Lisboa averages 2.05 takedowns and 0.5 submissions per fight, demonstrating clear grappling threats. Her recent submission victory and 2-0 UFC record indicate she's comfortable finishing fights. Cr...
GPT MISS
Tainara Lisboa
75%win confidence
KO/TKO 15%
Submission 20%
Decision 65%
Tainara Lisboa has demonstrated effective striking volume, accuracy, and grappling efficiency in her UFC appearances, whereas Melissa Croden is debuting with no measurable UFC stats. Lisboa's balanced skill set and proven defensive metrics make her a clear favorite against an untested opponent.