May 17, 2025
UFC Fight Night: Burns vs. Morales
Card complete. GPT 8/10 (80%) · Claude 10/10 (100%)
All results
Both models agree 9 of 11 fights
Rodolfo Bellato over Paul Craig
Claude 78%
GPT 70%
GPT 70%
Gabe Green over Matheus Camilo
Claude 70%
GPT 75%
GPT 75%
HyunSung Park over Carlos Hernandez
Both call Submission
Claude 75%
GPT 70%
GPT 70%
Michael Morales over Gilbert Burns
Claude 72%
GPT 70%
GPT 70%
Nursulton Ruziboev over Dustin Stoltzfus
Claude 72%
GPT 65%
GPT 65%
Denise Gomes over Elise Reed
Both call Decision
Claude 70%
GPT 65%
GPT 65%
Tecia Pennington over Luana Pinheiro
Both call Decision
Claude 68%
GPT 65%
GPT 65%
Luana Santos over Tainara Lisboa
Both call Decision
Claude 65%
GPT 60%
GPT 60%
Jared Gordon over Thiago Moises
Both call Decision
Claude 60%
GPT 60%
GPT 60%
Double locks: both at 75% or higher 0 fights
Nothing clears the 75% bar from both models. The genie is hedging tonight.
Build your own list 9 match
Rodolfo Bellato over Paul Craig
Claude 78%
GPT 70%
GPT 70%
Gabe Green over Matheus Camilo
Claude 70%
GPT 75%
GPT 75%
HyunSung Park over Carlos Hernandez
Both call Submission
Claude 75%
GPT 70%
GPT 70%
Michael Morales over Gilbert Burns
Claude 72%
GPT 70%
GPT 70%
Nursulton Ruziboev over Dustin Stoltzfus
Claude 72%
GPT 65%
GPT 65%
Denise Gomes over Elise Reed
Both call Decision
Claude 70%
GPT 65%
GPT 65%
Tecia Pennington over Luana Pinheiro
Both call Decision
Claude 68%
GPT 65%
GPT 65%
Luana Santos over Tainara Lisboa
Both call Decision
Claude 65%
GPT 60%
GPT 60%
Jared Gordon over Thiago Moises
Both call Decision
Claude 60%
GPT 60%
GPT 60%
Win confidence is the model's probability that its pick wins: 55 to 64 is a shrug, 65 to 74 is confident, 75 and up is the model betting its reputation.
KO/TKO, Submission, Decision is how the model splits the ways the fight ends, out of 100.
Odds are the sportsbook moneyline with the bookmaker margin removed, so the two percentages sum to 100. When a model's confidence beats the market's implied number, that gap is the value.
Elo is an opponent adjusted rating built from every UFC fight since 1994. Click any Elo number on the card for the full explanation, including what the star means.
FINAL: Michael Morales by KO/TKO Punches
Burns LLLWW 420d out Morales WWWWW 427d out last 5
Gilbert Burns last fought 420 days ago
L
vs Sean Brady · U-DEC2024-03-23
L
vs Jack Della Maddalena · KO/TKO2024-03-09
L
vs Belal Muhammad · U-DEC2023-05-06
W
vs Jorge Masvidal · U-DEC2023-04-08
W
vs Neil Magny · SUB2023-01-21
Michael Morales last fought 427 days ago
W
vs Neil Magny · KO/TKO2024-03-16
W
vs Jake Matthews · U-DEC2023-11-18
W
vs Max Griffin · U-DEC2023-07-01
W
vs Adam Fugitt · KO/TKO2022-07-30
W
vs Trevin Giles · KO/TKO2022-01-22
Claude HIT
Michael Morales
72%win confidence
KO/TKO 65%
Submission 5%
Decision 30%
Morales presents a significant stylistic challenge for Burns at this stage of Burns' career. The Brazilian is on a concerning four-fight losing streak, including a devastating KO loss to Jack Della Maddalena. Morales brings superior volume striking (5.42 vs 3.17 SLPM), exceptional takedown defense (...
GPT HIT
Michael Morales
70%win confidence
KO/TKO 25%
Submission 5%
Decision 70%
Given the statistics provided, Morales shows a higher significant strike rate and volume, as well as a superior takedown defense. Although Burns has a higher takedown average, Morales' defense could potentially neutralize this advantage. The physical advantage also leans towards Morales.
Bellato W 531d out Craig LLLWL 181d out last 5
Rodolfo Bellato last fought 531 days ago, long layoff
W
vs Ihor Potieria · KO/TKO2023-12-02
Paul Craig last fought 181 days ago
L
vs Bo Nickal · 2024-11-16
L
vs Caio Borralho · KO/TKO2023-12-09
L
vs Brendan Allen · SUB2023-11-18
W
vs Andre Muniz · KO/TKO2023-07-22
L
vs Johnny Walker · KO/TKO2023-01-21
Claude
Rodolfo Bellato
78%win confidence
KO/TKO 75%
Submission 10%
Decision 15%
This matchup heavily favors Bellato despite his relative UFC inexperience. Craig is moving back up to light heavyweight after an unsuccessful middleweight run where he's lost four straight fights. Bellato's striking metrics are exceptional (6.47 SLPM with 61% accuracy vs Craig's 2.45 SLPM with 46% a...
GPT
Rodolfo Bellato
70%win confidence
KO/TKO 25%
Submission 15%
Decision 60%
Rodolfo Bellato has a higher SLPM, better StrAcc, and perfect TDDef. Although he has less submissions per fight, his overall win rate is much higher than Paul Craig's.
FINAL: Mairon Santos by U-DEC
Yusuff LLWWL 399d out Santos WW 69d out last 5
Sodiq Yusuff last fought 399 days ago
L
vs Diego Lopes · KO/TKO2024-04-13
L
vs Edson Barboza · U-DEC2023-10-14
W
vs Don Shainis · SUB2022-10-01
W
vs Alex Caceres · U-DEC2022-03-12
L
vs Arnold Allen · U-DEC2021-04-10
Mairon Santos last fought 69 days ago
W
vs Francis Marshall · S-DEC2025-03-08
W
vs Kaan Ofli · KO/TKO2024-03-16
Claude HIT
Mairon Santos
65%win confidence
KO/TKO 60%
Submission 5%
Decision 35%
Santos represents a dangerous matchup for Yusuff despite being the less experienced UFC fighter. Yusuff enters on a two-fight losing streak, most recently suffering a devastating KO loss to Edson Barboza. Santos has shown exceptional striking efficiency in his UFC debut, maintaining a +2.92 strike d...
GPT MISS
Sodiq Yusuff
65%win confidence
KO/TKO 20%
Submission 10%
Decision 70%
Based on the analysis, Yusuff has a higher StrAcc, StrDef, TDAcc, and TDDef than Santos. Furthermore, Yusuff's striking volume is higher and he has proven to be more successful in grappling. However, Santos does have a higher StrDef, indicating a good defensive strategy.
FINAL: Nursulton Ruziboev by U-DEC
Stoltzfus LLWLW 196d out Ruziboev WWLW 83d out last 5
Dustin Stoltzfus last fought 196 days ago
L
vs win · 2024-11-02
L
vs Brunno Ferreira · KO/TKO2024-01-06
W
vs Punahele Soriano · SUB2023-12-02
L
vs Abus Magomedov · KO/TKO2022-09-03
W
vs Dwight Grant · U-DEC2022-07-16
Nursulton Ruziboev last fought 83 days ago
W
vs Eric McConico · KO/TKO Punch2025-02-22
W
vs Sedriques Dumas · KO/TKO2024-03-30
L
vs Joaquin Buckley · U-DEC2023-12-16
W
vs Brunno Ferreira · KO/TKO2023-07-01
Claude HIT
Nursulton Ruziboev
72%win confidence
KO/TKO 65%
Submission 10%
Decision 25%
Ruziboev holds a significant physical advantage with a 5-inch height advantage and superior striking power. Stoltzfus has struggled defensively, absorbing 3.4 strikes per minute with only 47% defense, making him vulnerable to Ruziboev's power. While Stoltzfus has better grappling credentials (2.45 T...
GPT HIT
Nursulton Ruziboev
65%win confidence
KO/TKO 20%
Submission 5%
Decision 75%
Ruziboev has a higher win rate, better performance against common opponents, and superior striking defense. Although Stoltzfus has a higher takedown average, Ruziboev has a perfect takedown accuracy which might neutralize Stoltzfus's advantage.
FINAL: Melquizael Costa by U-DEC
Erosa WWWLL 35d out Costa WWWLW 49d out last 5
Julian Erosa last fought 35 days ago
W
vs Darren Elkins · KO/TKO Punches2025-04-12
W
vs Ricardo Ramos · SUB2024-03-23
W
vs Christian Rodriguez · SUB2024-02-03
L
vs Fernando Padilla · KO/TKO2023-04-29
L
vs Alex Caceres · KO/TKO2022-12-17
Melquizael Costa last fought 49 days ago
W
vs Christian Rodriguez · U-DEC2025-03-29
W
vs Andre Fili · SUB Guillotine Choke2025-02-22
W
vs Shayilan Nuerdanbieke · SUB2024-01-13
L
vs Steve Garcia · KO/TKO2023-12-09
W
vs Austin Lingo · U-DEC2023-07-15
Claude HIT
Melquizael Costa
65%win confidence
KO/TKO 20%
Submission 25%
Decision 55%
Costa presents a more efficient striking profile with better defense (58% vs Erosa's 48%) and a positive strike differential (+1.17) compared to Erosa's negative differential (-0.13). While Erosa has higher volume (6.18 SLPM vs Costa's 3.46), Costa's superior accuracy (46% vs 45%) and significantly ...
GPT MISS
Julian Erosa
65%win confidence
KO/TKO 20%
Submission 20%
Decision 60%
Based on the statistical analysis, Julian Erosa's higher strike volume and comparable takedown average to Melquizael Costa's could give him the edge. Despite having a slightly lower striking accuracy, Erosa's higher significant strikes per minute (SLPM) suggest he may outscore Costa over the course ...
FINAL: Gabe Green by SUB Rear Naked Choke
Green LLWWL 735d out Camilo last 5
Gabe Green last fought 735 days ago, long layoff
L
vs Bryan Battle · KO/TKO2023-05-13
L
vs Ian Machado Garry · U-DEC2022-07-02
W
vs Yohan Lainesse · KO/TKO2022-04-30
W
vs Phil Rowe · U-DEC2021-02-13
L
vs Daniel Rodriguez · U-DEC2020-05-30
Matheus Camilo no UFC fights on record
Claude HIT
Gabe Green
70%win confidence
KO/TKO 55%
Submission 10%
Decision 35%
Green brings significant UFC experience with 5 fights in the promotion, while Camilo appears to be making his UFC debut with no UFC statistical data available. Green's high-volume striking approach (6.28 SLPM) should overwhelm the newcomer, though his defensive vulnerabilities (47% strike defense, a...
GPT HIT
Gabe Green
75%win confidence
KO/TKO 15%
Submission 10%
Decision 75%
Due to lack of available data for Matheus Camilo, the prediction is heavily skewed towards Gabe Green. Gabe has a higher significant strike rate and decent grappling stats compared to Matheus. However, his win rate is only at 40% so this might be a long drawn out fight resulting in a decision.
FINAL: Jared Gordon by KO/TKO Punch
Gordon LWLLW 482d out Moises WWLLW 125d out last 5
Jared Gordon last fought 482 days ago, long layoff
L
vs Nasrat Haqparast · S-DEC2024-01-20
W
vs Mark Madsen · KO/TKO2023-11-11
L
vs Bobby Green · CNC2023-04-22
L
vs Paddy Pimblett · U-DEC2022-12-10
W
vs Leonardo Santos · U-DEC2022-08-20
Thiago Moises last fought 125 days ago
W
vs Trey Ogden · U-DEC2025-01-11
W
vs Mitch Ramirez · KO/TKO2024-03-16
L
vs Ludovit Klein · U-DEC2024-01-06
L
vs Benoit Saint Denis · KO/TKO2023-09-02
W
vs Melquizael Costa · SUB2023-01-21
Claude HIT
Jared Gordon
60%win confidence
KO/TKO 20%
Submission 10%
Decision 70%
Gordon presents a significant volume advantage (5.75 SLPM vs Moises' 2.39) and superior striking accuracy (55% vs 40%), which should allow him to consistently outpoint Moises on the feet. While Moises has a submission threat (1.3 submissions per fight vs Gordon's 0), Gordon's 62% takedown defense sh...
GPT HIT
Jared Gordon
60%win confidence
KO/TKO 20%
Submission 15%
Decision 65%
Gordon's higher striking volume and takedown defense are likely to give him an edge in this fight. Moises, while having a higher submission average, might struggle to take Gordon down. The common opponent analysis also doesn't favor Moises as he has performed worse against shared opponents.
FINAL: Luana Santos by SUB Keylock
Santos LWWW 433d out Lisboa WW 581d out last 5
Luana Santos last fought 433 days ago
L
vs Casey O'Neill · U-DEC2024-03-09
W
vs Mariya Agapova · SUB2024-02-03
W
vs Stephanie Egger · U-DEC2023-12-09
W
vs Juliana Miller · KO/TKO2023-08-12
Tainara Lisboa last fought 581 days ago, long layoff
W
vs Ravena Oliveira · U-DEC2023-10-14
W
vs Jessica-Rose Clark · SUB2023-05-13
Claude HIT
Luana Santos
65%win confidence
KO/TKO 15%
Submission 25%
Decision 60%
Santos brings superior striking volume (4.28 SLPM vs Lisboa's 2.05) and better defensive metrics (61% strike defense vs Lisboa's 54%). While Lisboa has a positive striking differential (0.65), Santos's higher volume and better defense should allow her to control the striking exchanges. Santos also h...
GPT HIT
Luana Santos
60%win confidence
KO/TKO 20%
Submission 20%
Decision 60%
Luana Santos has a higher striking volume, better striking and takedown defense which gives her an edge in this fight. Even though Tainara Lisboa has an undefeated record, she has lower striking volume and lower defensive efficiency.
FINAL: Denise Gomes by KO/TKO Punches
Reed WLWLW 385d out Gomes LWLWW 188d out last 5
Elise Reed last fought 385 days ago
W
vs Jessica Penne · U-DEC2024-04-27
L
vs Loopy Godinez · SUB2023-09-16
W
vs Jinh Yu Frey · U-DEC2023-06-03
L
vs Loma Lookboonmee · SUB2023-02-11
W
vs Melissa Martinez · U-DEC2022-09-10
Denise Gomes last fought 188 days ago
L
vs win · 2024-11-09
W
vs Eduarda Moura · S-DEC2024-01-06
L
vs Angela Hill · U-DEC2023-11-04
W
vs Yazmin Jauregui · KO/TKO2023-07-08
W
vs Bruna Brasil · KO/TKO2023-04-15
Claude HIT
Denise Gomes
70%win confidence
KO/TKO 25%
Submission 20%
Decision 55%
Gomes demonstrates significantly higher striking volume (4.48 SLPM vs Reed's 3.5) and a better striking differential (+1.36 vs Reed's +0.35). While Reed has slightly better striking accuracy (53% vs 49%), Gomes's volume advantage should allow her to outpoint Reed over three rounds. Gomes also posses...
GPT HIT
Denise Gomes
65%win confidence
KO/TKO 20%
Submission 10%
Decision 70%
Denise Gomes has the edge in terms of striking volume and takedown average. Though her striking accuracy is slightly lower than Elise Reed, her significantly higher strike volume should make up for this. Her takedown average is also higher, and her takedown defense is significantly better than Reed'...
FINAL: HyunSung Park by SUB Rear Naked Choke
Park WW 524d out Hernandez LLLWL 174d out last 5
HyunSung Park last fought 524 days ago, long layoff
W
vs Shannon Ross · KO/TKO2023-12-09
W
vs SeungGuk Choi · SUB2023-02-04
Carlos Hernandez last fought 174 days ago
L
vs Nyamjargal Tumendemberel · 2024-11-23
L
vs Rei Tsuruya · U-DEC2024-01-27
L
vs Tatsuro Taira · KO/TKO2023-12-09
W
vs Denys Bondar · U-DEC2023-06-17
L
vs Allan Nascimento · SUB2023-01-14
Claude HIT
HyunSung Park
75%win confidence
KO/TKO 25%
Submission 45%
Decision 30%
Park demonstrates significant advantages across multiple metrics. His striking differential (+0.72 vs Hernandez's +0.31) and superior defense (59% vs 46%) give him a clear edge in stand-up exchanges. Park's grappling metrics show overwhelming dominance with perfect takedown defense (100% vs Hernande...
GPT HIT
HyunSung Park
70%win confidence
KO/TKO 30%
Submission 40%
Decision 30%
HyunSung Park has a clear advantage in both striking and grappling. He lands more strikes per minute and absorbs fewer strikes than Carlos Hernandez. Additionally, Park's takedown defense is perfect, and he averages more takedowns and submissions per fight than Hernandez.
FINAL: Tecia Pennington by U-DEC
Pennington WLLWW 399d out Pinheiro LLWWW 510d out last 5
Tecia Pennington last fought 399 days ago
W
vs Carla Esparza · U-DEC2024-04-13
L
vs Tabatha Ricci · S-DEC2023-12-16
L
vs Mackenzie Dern · S-DEC2022-04-09
W
vs Angela Hill · U-DEC2021-08-07
W
vs Sam Hughes · KO/TKO2020-12-12
Luana Pinheiro last fought 510 days ago, long layoff
L
vs Angela Hill · SUB2023-12-23
L
vs Amanda Ribas · KO/TKO2023-11-18
W
vs Michelle Waterson-Gomez · S-DEC2023-04-08
W
vs Sam Hughes · U-DEC2021-11-20
W
vs Randa Markos · DQ2021-05-01
Claude HIT
Tecia Pennington
68%win confidence
KO/TKO 15%
Submission 5%
Decision 80%
Pennington's superior striking volume (4.82 SLPM vs 3.57) and positive strike differential (+1.29 vs -0.60) will be the determining factor in this matchup. While Pinheiro has the grappling advantage with 2.24 TDs per fight compared to Pennington's 0.57, Pennington's 63% TDD should be sufficient to k...
GPT HIT
Tecia Pennington
65%win confidence
KO/TKO 20%
Submission 10%
Decision 70%
Tecia Pennington has a higher striking volume, better defensive efficiency, and has performed better against common opponents. Although Luana Pinheiro has a higher takedown average, Pennington's takedown defense is strong enough to keep the fight standing.