April 18, 2026
UFC Fight Night: Burns vs. Malott
Card complete. GPT 3/11 (27%)
All results
Win confidence is the model's probability that its pick wins: 55 to 64 is a shrug, 65 to 74 is confident, 75 and up is the model betting its reputation.
KO/TKO, Submission, Decision is how the model splits the ways the fight ends, out of 100.
Odds are the sportsbook moneyline with the bookmaker margin removed, so the two percentages sum to 100. When a model's confidence beats the market's implied number, that gap is the value.
Elo is an opponent adjusted rating built from every UFC fight since 1994. Click any Elo number on the card for the full explanation, including what the star means.
FINAL: Mike Malott by KO/TKO Punches
Burns LLLLW 336d out Malott WWLLW 182d out last 5
Gilbert Burns last fought 336 days ago
L
vs Michael Morales · KO/TKO Punches2025-05-17
L
vs Sean Brady · U-DEC2024-03-23
L
vs Jack Della Maddalena · KO/TKO2024-03-09
L
vs Belal Muhammad · U-DEC2023-05-06
W
vs Jorge Masvidal · U-DEC2023-04-08
Mike Malott last fought 182 days ago
W
vs Kevin Holland · U-DEC2025-10-18
W
vs Charles Radtke · KO/TKO Punch2025-05-10
L
vs win · 2024-11-02
L
vs Neil Magny · KO/TKO2024-01-20
W
vs Adam Fugitt · SUB2023-06-10
GPT MISS
Gilbert Burns
72%win confidence
KO/TKO 22%
Submission 28%
Decision 50%
Burns' championship-level experience, historically elite BJJ, and proven five-round durability offset Malott's small physical and volume edges. Malott's offensive wrestling and submission game are strong on paper, but his takedown defense (16%) and limited high-level opposition suggest he is unlikel...
FINAL: Charles Jourdain by U-DEC
Phillips LLWWW 273d out Jourdain WLLLW 182d out last 5
Kyler Phillips last fought 273 days ago
L
vs Vinicius Oliveira · U-DEC2025-07-19
L
vs Rob Font · U-DEC2024-04-27
W
vs Pedro Munhoz · U-DEC2024-03-09
W
vs Raoni Barcelos · U-DEC2023-08-05
W
vs Marcelo Rojo · SUB2022-02-12
Charles Jourdain last fought 182 days ago
W
vs Davey Grant · SUB Guillotine Choke2025-10-18
L
vs win · 2024-11-02
L
vs Jean Silva · KO/TKO2024-01-27
L
vs Sean Woodson · S-DEC2024-01-20
W
vs Ricardo Ramos · SUB2023-09-23
GPT MISS
Kyler Phillips
69%win confidence
KO/TKO 18%
Submission 17%
Decision 65%
Phillips' higher striking defense, positive strike differential, and significantly stronger offensive and defensive wrestling profile give him more paths to win over three rounds. Jourdain throws slightly higher volume with better accuracy, but his porous takedown defense and higher damage intake (S...
FINAL: Jai Herbert by KO/TKO Punches
Nallo Herbert LWLWW 392d out last 5
Mandel Nallo no UFC fights on record
Jai Herbert last fought 392 days ago
L
vs Chris Padilla · S-DEC2025-03-22
W
vs Rolando Bedoya · U-DEC2024-02-24
L
vs Fares Ziam · U-DEC2023-07-22
W
vs Ludovit Klein · M-DEC2023-03-18
W
vs Kyle Nelson · U-DEC2022-07-23
GPT MISS
Mandel Nallo
67%win confidence
KO/TKO 58%
Submission 7%
Decision 35%
Nallo's early UFC stats show elite striking efficiency (8.61 SLpM on 62% accuracy) with strong defense (72% StrDef) and a huge positive differential, indicating far cleaner, more damaging work per exchange than Herbert, whose numbers are negative in striking differential and only middling defensivel...
FINAL: Jasmine Jasudavicius by U-DEC
Jasudavicius LWWLW 182d out Silva LWLWW 132d out last 5
Jasmine Jasudavicius last fought 182 days ago
L
vs Manon Fiorot · KO/TKO Punches2025-10-18
W
vs Jessica Andrade · SUB Rear Naked Choke2025-05-10
W
vs Mayra Bueno Silva · U-DEC2025-02-01
L
vs win · 2024-11-02
W
vs Fatima Kline · U-DEC2024-02-03
Karine Silva last fought 132 days ago
L
vs Maycee Barber · U-DEC2025-12-06
W
vs Dione Barbosa · U-DEC2025-08-16
L
vs Viviane Araujo · 2024-11-16
W
vs Ariane da Silva · U-DEC2024-04-27
W
vs Maryna Moroz · SUB2023-08-19
GPT MISS
Karine Silva
69%win confidence
KO/TKO 10%
Submission 52%
Decision 38%
Silva's finishing-oriented grappling, elite 72% takedown accuracy, and 2.2 subs per 15 minutes pose a serious threat to a wrestler/grappler like Jasudavicius who often accepts grappling exchanges. While Jasmine has a slight volume edge on the feet and solid 75% takedown defense, her style of clinchi...
FINAL: Gauge Young by S-DEC
Moises LWWLL 336d out Young WL 238d out last 5
Thiago Moises last fought 336 days ago
L
vs Jared Gordon · KO/TKO Punch2025-05-17
W
vs Trey Ogden · U-DEC2025-01-11
W
vs Mitch Ramirez · KO/TKO2024-03-16
L
vs Ludovit Klein · U-DEC2024-01-06
L
vs Benoit Saint Denis · KO/TKO2023-09-02
Gauge Young last fought 238 days ago
W
vs Maheshate · U-DEC2025-08-23
L
vs Evan Elder · U-DEC2025-04-26
GPT MISS
Thiago Moises
76%win confidence
KO/TKO 14%
Submission 47%
Decision 39%
Moises is a proven UFC-level grappler with strong submission output (1.3 subs per 15, solid takedown volume) facing a striker in Young who shows no offensive wrestling, modest takedown defense, and a negative striking differential in high-pace exchanges. Young's higher output and accuracy give him s...
FINAL: Marcio Barbosa by KO/TKO Punch
Buzukja WLLL 749d out Barbosa last 5
Dennis Buzukja last fought 749 days ago, long layoff
W
vs Connor Matthews · KO/TKO2024-03-30
L
vs Francis Marshall · S-DEC2024-03-16
L
vs Jamall Emmers · KO/TKO2023-11-11
L
vs Sean Woodson · U-DEC2023-08-05
Marcio Barbosa no UFC fights on record
GPT HIT
Marcio Barbosa
69%win confidence
KO/TKO 32%
Submission 4%
Decision 64%
Barbosa's pace and output (8.27 SLpM at 47% accuracy) create a clear striking-volume edge over Buzukja, who is negative in strike differential and absorbs more than he lands. Buzukja's limited offensive wrestling (0.63 TDs per fight at 27% accuracy) is unlikely to consistently ground Barbosa, who ha...
FINAL: Robert Valentin by SUB Rear Naked Choke
Leblanc Valentin LLL 273d out last 5
Julien Leblanc no UFC fights on record
Robert Valentin last fought 273 days ago
L
vs Ateba Gautier · KO/TKO Punch2025-07-19
L
vs Torrez Finney · S-DEC2025-04-05
L
vs Ryan Loder · KO/TKO2024-03-16
GPT HIT
Robert Valentin
61%win confidence
KO/TKO 18%
Submission 47%
Decision 35%
Despite a rough defensive profile and small UFC sample, Valentin's proven willingness and ability to attack submissions (4.4 SubAvg, strong grappling emphasis) is a tangible data edge against a debuting Leblanc with no UFC stats. With limited information on Leblanc's grappling defense and Valentin's...
FINAL: Gokhan Saricam by KO/TKO Punch
Boser WLLWL 987d out Saricam last 5
Tanner Boser last fought 987 days ago, long layoff
W
vs Aleksa Camur · U-DEC2023-08-05
L
vs Ion Cutelaba · KO/TKO2023-04-15
L
vs Rodrigo Nascimento · S-DEC2022-09-17
W
vs Ovince Saint Preux · KO/TKO2021-06-26
L
vs Ilir Latifi · S-DEC2021-06-05
Gokhan Saricam no UFC fights on record
GPT MISS
Tanner Boser
72%win confidence
KO/TKO 38%
Submission 2%
Decision 60%
Boser brings proven UFC-level durability, volume striking, and cardio against a debuting heavyweight with no UFC sample. His 4.7 SLpM at 52% accuracy and positive striking differential suggest he can outwork Saricam over three rounds, especially with superior experience and defensive awareness. Sari...
FINAL: Melissa Croden by U-DEC
Croden LW 125d out Zhelezniakova WLW 301d out last 5
Melissa Croden last fought 125 days ago
L
vs Luana Santos · U-DEC2025-12-13
W
vs Tainara Lisboa · KO/TKO Punches2025-10-18
Daria Zhelezniakova last fought 301 days ago
W
vs Melissa Mullins · U-DEC2025-06-21
L
vs Ailin Perez · SUB2024-04-06
W
vs Montserrat Rendon · U-DEC2024-03-23
GPT MISS
Daria Zhelezniakova
68%win confidence
KO/TKO 18%
Submission 7%
Decision 75%
Zhelezniakova has proven UFC-level metrics with solid striking defense (79% StrDef), positive striking differential (+1.59), and efficient offensive output (3.29 SLpM at 38% accuracy) combined with a credible takedown threat (0.8 TDs per fight at 100% accuracy so far). Croden is a complete statistic...
Raposo WLL 175d out Nascimento WWWL 322d out last 5
Mitch Raposo last fought 175 days ago
W
vs Azat Maksum · U-DEC2025-10-25
L
vs Sumudaerji · S-DEC2025-04-12
L
vs Andre Lima · S-DEC2024-01-01
Allan Nascimento last fought 322 days ago
W
vs Jafel Filho · U-DEC2025-05-31
W
vs Carlos Hernandez · SUB2023-01-14
W
vs Jake Hadley · U-DEC2022-05-14
L
vs Tagir Ulanbekov · S-DEC2021-10-30
GPT
Allan Nascimento
72%win confidence
KO/TKO 10%
Submission 45%
Decision 45%
Nascimento's combination of high submission output (0.9 subs per 15), superior offensive efficiency (much better striking differential and 61% accuracy), and large reach advantage against a smaller, more wrestling-dependent Raposo creates a strong stylistic edge. Raposo's 50% takedown defense and ne...
FINAL: JJ Aldrich by U-DEC
Aldrich WLWWL 412d out Horth WWLLL 125d out last 5
JJ Aldrich last fought 412 days ago
W
vs Andrea Lee · U-DEC2025-03-01
L
vs Veronica Hardy · U-DEC2023-12-16
W
vs Montana De La Rosa · U-DEC2023-10-07
W
vs Liang Na · KO/TKO2023-08-26
L
vs Ariane da Silva · U-DEC2023-03-11
Jamey-Lyn Horth last fought 125 days ago
W
vs Tereza Bleda · KO/TKO Punches2025-12-13
W
vs Vanessa Demopoulos · U-DEC2025-06-14
L
vs Miranda Maverick · U-DEC2024-12-14
L
vs win · 2024-11-02
L
vs Veronica Hardy · S-DEC2023-12-02
GPT MISS
Jamey-Lyn Horth
64%win confidence
KO/TKO 14%
Submission 8%
Decision 78%
Horth's superior striking accuracy (+10 percentage points), positive strike differential (+0.38 vs Aldrich's -0.50), and higher takedown output with better accuracy (1.0 TDs/fight at 37% vs 0.66 at 23%) point to more efficient round-winning tools over three rounds. Aldrich is durable and historicall...
Castaneda LLWWL 357d out Vologdin last 5
John Castaneda last fought 357 days ago
L
vs Chris Gutierrez · S-DEC2025-04-26
L
vs Daniel Marcos · U-DEC2024-01-06
W
vs Kyung Ho Kang · U-DEC2023-11-11
W
vs Muin Gafurov · U-DEC2023-06-03
L
vs Daniel Santos · KO/TKO2022-10-01
Mark Vologdin no UFC fights on record
GPT
John Castaneda
69%win confidence
KO/TKO 27%
Submission 8%
Decision 65%
Castaneda is statistically more efficient and defensively sound, and should be able to exploit Vologdin's porous defense and negative striking differential with cleaner counters and occasional takedowns. Vologdin's high output but extremely high damage absorption suggests he can be outscored and pot...
FINAL: John Yannis by KO/TKO Elbows
GPT HIT
John Yannis
60%win confidence
KO/TKO 22%
Submission 13%
Decision 65%
With virtually no UFC sample on either side, the only usable metric is Yannis' 71% strike defense and very low damage absorbed (0.55 SApM), suggesting better defensive awareness and distance management. Siraj has no demonstrated UFC-level effectiveness yet, and Yannis also carries a 4-inch reach adv...