GPTBurns' championship-level experience, historically elite BJJ, and proven five-round durability offset Malott's small physical and volume edges. Malott's offensive wrestling and submission game are strong on paper, but his takedown defense (16%) and limited high-level opposition suggest he is unlikely to consistently out-grapple Burns or hold him down. Burns' superior strength of schedule, tighter defensive grappling, and ability to mix takedowns with power counters should allow him to control the higher-leverage moments and bank rounds, even if Malott has early success on the feet.
GPTPhillips' higher striking defense, positive strike differential, and significantly stronger offensive and defensive wrestling profile give him more paths to win over three rounds. Jourdain throws slightly higher volume with better accuracy, but his porous takedown defense and higher damage intake (SApM) make him vulnerable to being grounded and outscored, especially given Phillips' 2.63 TDs per 15 minutes at 51% accuracy and 75% TD defense to keep the fight in favorable phases.
GPTNallo's early UFC stats show elite striking efficiency (8.61 SLpM on 62% accuracy) with strong defense (72% StrDef) and a huge positive differential, indicating far cleaner, more damaging work per exchange than Herbert, whose numbers are negative in striking differential and only middling defensively. Herbert is historically hittable, has been hurt and finished multiple times on the feet, and his moderate takedown game (0.5 TD avg on 23% with 59% TDDef) is unlikely to reliably neutralize Nallo's range kickboxing and counters over three rounds. If Herbert can't consistently put Nallo on the mat or force prolonged clinch sequences, his defensive lapses and durability concerns against a far more efficient striker favor Nallo to find a finish, especially in the mid-fight stretch.
GPTSilva's finishing-oriented grappling, elite 72% takedown accuracy, and 2.2 subs per 15 minutes pose a serious threat to a wrestler/grappler like Jasudavicius who often accepts grappling exchanges. While Jasmine has a slight volume edge on the feet and solid 75% takedown defense, her style of clinching and wrestling to win minutes plays directly into Silva's submission game. Over three rounds, the likelihood that Silva finds a neck or limb off a scramble, reactive shot, or clinch entry is higher than Jasudavicius being able to safely control and grind her out without getting caught.
GPTMoises is a proven UFC-level grappler with strong submission output (1.3 subs per 15, solid takedown volume) facing a striker in Young who shows no offensive wrestling, modest takedown defense, and a negative striking differential in high-pace exchanges. Young's higher output and accuracy give him some standing danger, but Moises' experience, submission threat, and ability to mix in takedowns against a defensively porous opponent strongly favor him finding a finish on the mat over three rounds.
GPTBarbosa's pace and output (8.27 SLpM at 47% accuracy) create a clear striking-volume edge over Buzukja, who is negative in strike differential and absorbs more than he lands. Buzukja's limited offensive wrestling (0.63 TDs per fight at 27% accuracy) is unlikely to consistently ground Barbosa, who has shown perfect takedown defense so far. Over three rounds, Barbosa's higher volume, slightly better defensive metrics, and ability to dictate a high-tempo kickboxing match favor him to out-land Buzukja and win rounds, though Buzukja's toughness and durability make a finish less likely.
GPTDespite a rough defensive profile and small UFC sample, Valentin's proven willingness and ability to attack submissions (4.4 SubAvg, strong grappling emphasis) is a tangible data edge against a debuting Leblanc with no UFC stats. With limited information on Leblanc's grappling defense and Valentin's southpaw submission-oriented style, the most evidence-backed outcome is Valentin creating scrambles or clinch exchanges and finding a finish on the mat rather than winning a clean, low-damage decision.
GPTBoser brings proven UFC-level durability, volume striking, and cardio against a debuting heavyweight with no UFC sample. His 4.7 SLpM at 52% accuracy and positive striking differential suggest he can outwork Saricam over three rounds, especially with superior experience and defensive awareness. Saricam's regional power and physicality are threats early, but Boser's movement, output, and composure should allow him to manage the first-round danger and gradually take over on the feet.
GPTZhelezniakova has proven UFC-level metrics with solid striking defense (79% StrDef), positive striking differential (+1.59), and efficient offensive output (3.29 SLpM at 38% accuracy) combined with a credible takedown threat (0.8 TDs per fight at 100% accuracy so far). Croden is a complete statistical unknown at the UFC level, which historically translates into early-career acclimation issues against opponents who already show defensive soundness and measured output. Unless Croden brings a major unscouted finishing edge, Zhelezniakova's defensive responsibility and ability to mix in opportunistic takedowns should allow her to control minutes and win rounds over three.
GPTNascimento's combination of high submission output (0.9 subs per 15), superior offensive efficiency (much better striking differential and 61% accuracy), and large reach advantage against a smaller, more wrestling-dependent Raposo creates a strong stylistic edge. Raposo's 50% takedown defense and negative striking differential suggest he will either be outworked at range or forced into grappling sequences where Nascimento's opportunistic back-taking and front-choke game historically shine.
GPTHorth's superior striking accuracy (+10 percentage points), positive strike differential (+0.38 vs Aldrich's -0.50), and higher takedown output with better accuracy (1.0 TDs/fight at 37% vs 0.66 at 23%) point to more efficient round-winning tools over three rounds. Aldrich is durable and historically hard to finish, but her negative strike differential and lower offensive efficiency suggest she'll be slightly outworked in both the striking and clinch/wrestling phases, especially with Horth's small physical and wrestling edge.
GPTCastaneda is statistically more efficient and defensively sound, and should be able to exploit Vologdin's porous defense and negative striking differential with cleaner counters and occasional takedowns. Vologdin's high output but extremely high damage absorption suggests he can be outscored and potentially controlled, but his durability and volume make a finish less likely than a clear decision for Castaneda.
GPTWith virtually no UFC sample on either side, the only usable metric is Yannis' 71% strike defense and very low damage absorbed (0.55 SApM), suggesting better defensive awareness and distance management. Siraj has no demonstrated UFC-level effectiveness yet, and Yannis also carries a 4-inch reach advantage plus an Orthodox vs Southpaw look that should help him manage range, pick safer spots, and edge rounds in a lower-volume, feel-out type fight.
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