BuckleyvsMalott

CLAUDEThe two priors split. The market has Malott at 55% (-135) and Elo has Buckley at 52%. Both say this is close to a coin flip, so I start from the market and make only a small adjustment. Recent form explains Malott's edge. His rating is rising (+41) after four straight wins, the latest a third-round TKO of Gilbert Burns in April 2026, plus a decision over Kevin Holland, who had beaten Buckley. Buckley's rating is falling slightly (-5). He lost clear decisions to Kamaru Usman and Sean Brady, and the pattern is plain: he struggles when a top grappler can make him wrestle for 15 to 25 minutes. Malott is not an Usman- or Brady-level grappler, but he lands 1.63 takedowns per 15 minutes at 50% accuracy, averages 0.7 submission attempts per 15 minutes (Buckley averages 0.1), and is more accurate on the feet (48% vs 36%). He also lands a bit more volume (4.02 vs 3.62 significant strikes per minute) while absorbing about the same (3.09 vs 3.10). Buckley's 76-inch reach beats Malott's 73 inches, his southpaw stance can catch an orthodox opponent with the left hand, and his knockouts of Colby Covington and Stephen Thompson show he can end the fight at any point. Malott's chin is a real question after Neil Magny stopped him in January 2024, and his 57% takedown defense means Buckley could also mix in wrestling. Malott is Canadian, so he likely has the crowd in Edmonton. Buckley's August freestyle wrestling match with Tyron Woodley was low-impact, and there is no injury news. I stay at the market's 55: Malott's rising form and second grappling threat make him the slightly more likely winner, but Buckley's power keeps this close.

GPTI narrowly side with Malott, starting from his 55% market probability. His higher striking accuracy, positive strike differential and three undisputed recent wins support that lean. Buckley's opponent-adjusted Elo advantage (52% win probability), stronger takedown defense and experience against Brady and Usman keep this close; those losses should not be treated as simple decline. Buckley's wrestling could exploit Malott's 57% takedown defense. Neither listed layoff approaches 450 days, and the scouting report supplies no confirmed adverse adjustment. Conflicting older results and duplicate entries reduce confidence in streak summaries. Method percentages are conditional on a Malott victory.

CLAUDEThe market has Blanchfield at 74% (-325); Elo has her at only 57%. That 17-point gap is the main thing to resolve. Elo reflects that Jasudavicius has built a solid record: three wins in her last four, a submission of Jessica Andrade, a decision over Mayra Bueno Silva, and a recent decision over Karine Silva. Her rating is rising (+16) while Blanchfield's is down slightly (-10). The market is still pricing the skill gap that the matchup data supports. Blanchfield out-lands her opponents by about one strike per minute (5.24 landed vs 4.25 absorbed). Jasudavicius is roughly even (3.47 vs 3.46) and has weaker striking defense (51% vs 58%). The best comparison is common opponents: Blanchfield submitted Tracy Cortez, who beat Jasudavicius. Both lost to Manon Fiorot, but Blanchfield went five rounds and lost a decision, while Jasudavicius was knocked out in round 1. Jasudavicius wins most of her fights by wrestling (2.63 takedowns per 15 minutes), but that runs into Blanchfield's 78% takedown defense and elite submission game from top and bottom (0.9 attempts per 15 minutes). Jasudavicius does have 3 inches of height and 2 inches of reach, she fights at home in Canada, and Blanchfield pulled out of UFC 330 with an unspecified injury and returns after a 331-day layoff. Those are real, specific risks, so I set confidence a few points below the market and do not follow Elo all the way down. Both women are durable, so a decision is most likely. A rear-naked choke from a scramble is the main finishing path.

GPTStarting from the supplied 74% market baseline, I favor Blanchfield but reduce confidence modestly because opponent-adjusted Elo gives her only 57%. Her higher striking output, better strike differential and 78% takedown defense support winning competitive rounds. Jasudavicius counters with more frequent, more accurate takedowns and a rising Elo trend. Both have recent submission wins, but their strong takedown defenses favor a decision. Blanchfield's listed 331-day layoff exceeds Jasudavicius's 177 days but remains below the major-risk threshold. Her July injury withdrawal adds uncertainty, although that older news is likely already priced in. Conflicting recent-result entries weaken form conclusions; the claim that both defeated Fiorot contradicts both fight logs and is excluded. Round assumes a three-round bout; method percentages are conditional on Blanchfield winning.

CLAUDEThe market is strong on Perez: 72% de-vigged at -300. I agree on direction but cap confidence at 65 because Perez is a UFC debutant with no UFCStats data. His record outside the UFC is 15-2. He has had two DWCS appearances: a KO/TKO loss to Manoel Sousa in Aug 2025, then a one-punch KO of Logan Paxton in Aug 2026 that earned the contract. He is returning on a quick 55-day turnaround. The Sousa loss shows his own chin can be cracked, which adds to the uncertainty. The case for Perez rests mainly on Nelson's decline and durability. Nelson is 35, has a negative striking differential (3.51 SLPM vs 4.72 SApM, 51% defense), and has been stopped in two of his last three fights: punches against Terrance McKinney (Mar 2026) and elbows against Steve Garcia (Sep 2024). His wins in that stretch came by decision over Frevola and a KO of Bill Algeo. He is a durable veteran in volume fights but increasingly vulnerable to early power. Nelson's 73% TDD and 11-fight UFC experience give him a path: slow the fight, use switch-stance looks, and drag a debutant into rounds two and three, where nerves and pace could favour him. That path, plus Perez's own KO loss, is why I stay below the market. Perez's best route is to land early and test a chin that has failed twice recently. No fight-week news changes this.

GPTPerez is the pick from the supplied 72% de-vigged market baseline, with confidence capped at 65% because he is making his UFC debut. Nelson's negative striking differential and knockout losses in two of his last three bouts support a stoppage prediction. However, Perez also suffered a recent knockout loss, and Nelson has substantially more proven UFC experience. Perez's listed statistical averages are unreliable for UFC comparison. Neither the listed 198-day nor 55-day layoff crosses the material-risk threshold. The enrichment fight log takes precedence over the conflicting, duplicated recent-form entries. Method percentages are conditional on a Perez win.

CLAUDEThe market has Daukaus at 69% (-245), while Elo rates this a near coin flip (Daukaus 51%). The Elo gap reflects Daukaus's thin 4-5 UFC record. The market is pricing the clear grappling mismatch. Barriault is a pressure striker who throws a lot (5.65 landed per minute) but takes even more (5.94 absorbed). He rarely wrestles (0.34 takedowns per 15 minutes at 28%), and his 68% takedown defense leaves gaps. Daukaus averages 2.0 submission attempts per 15 minutes and finished each of his last two wins in round 1: a D'Arce choke on Gerald Meerschaert and elbows on Michel Pereira. Clinch entries and front-headlock positions should come often against a forward-moving brawler. I have two reasons to come down from 69 and land near 61. First, Daukaus's chin. Bo Nickal knocked him out in June 2026, only 120 days ago, and he was also stopped by Roman Dolidze and Eryk Anders. Barriault beat Anders by decision and keeps throwing heavy shots. Second, Barriault's grit and home-country crowd should help him in the early exchanges. Barriault has lost four of his last five and is clearly fading, but he only needs one clean exchange against a fragile chin. Daukaus remains the pick, most likely by choke after a scramble or a clinch entry. If it goes the distance or turns into a brawl, Barriault's chances rise.

GPTStarting from Daukaus's 69% market probability, I lower him to 64% because opponent-adjusted Elo gives him only 51%, and his recent knockout loss reinforces durability concerns. His higher takedown and submission rates, supported by the Meerschaert submission, provide the clearest winning route. However, 25% takedown accuracy against Barriault's 68% defense makes ground access uncertain. Barriault's higher striking volume threatens Daukaus, although four losses in five fights weaken his case. Barriault's roughly eight-month absence adds modest uncertainty versus Daukaus's four months; neither reaches the 450-day layoff threshold. Conflicting recent-form records reduce certainty; the fuller enrichment log takes precedence. Method percentages are conditional on Daukaus winning.

CLAUDEThe market has Jourdain at 64% de-vigged (-215). I start there and shade down slightly because of the debut cap and the uncertainty around him. Jourdain has no completed UFC fights. His 7.32 SLPM, 2.44 SApM and 1.4 SubAvg come from a very small non-UFC/DWCS sample and should be read as directional at best. What is concrete: he is 9-3, finished Magno Dias by rear-naked choke on DWCS 9.8, and has been out 377 days. That layoff is long but under the ~450-day risk threshold. Cuamba has 4-5 UFC fights, and his numbers show a fighter who loses volume battles: 2.88 SLPM against 3.72 SApM, a -0.84 differential, 42% accuracy and 0 submission attempts on record. His form is mixed. A flying-knee KO of Roberto Romero and a decision over ChangHo Lee were followed by a rear-naked-choke loss to Benardo Sopaj in May 2026. He has also moved between lightweight, featherweight and bantamweight across his last five bouts, which suggests he hasn't found a settled weight class. The Sopaj loss matters here. Jourdain's one documented finish is the same choke, and his 1.4 SubAvg suggests he will look for the back if Cuamba's 1.18 TD/15 wrestling attempts give up position. Cuamba's 71% takedown defense and the flying knee show he can punish a debutant who rushes. That, plus Jourdain's unverified stats, keeps this from going above the mid-60s. No fight-week news and no Elo are available, so I have no reason to move far from the market. Jourdain on volume is the most likely outcome, with a real chance he submits Cuamba once the fight hits the mat.

GPTI side with the supplied 64% de-vigged market probability. Jourdain is flagged as a UFC debutant, so his listed statistical averages and purported UFC record are unreliable. His reported submission win and Cuamba's latest submission loss suggest a potential grappling route, but single results provide limited evidence. Decision is the narrow preference given three decisions in Cuamba's five-fight enrichment log. Jourdain's reported 377-day layoff warrants caution but falls below the stated 450-day material-risk threshold; Cuamba has been more active. Conflicting records, an unspecified weight class and unestablished opposition quality limit confidence. Method percentages are conditional on a Jourdain win.

CLAUDEThe market has Nallo at 70%, while Elo makes Landwehr a slight 53% favorite. The Elo number is less reliable here. Nallo's rating is provisional because it rests on a single R1 knockout loss to Jai Herbert, so it mostly reflects his debut result. Landwehr's 1498 still includes credit from his earlier featherweight run, and it hasn't caught up with how much his durability has slipped. He has lost three straight, all by knockout: Choi (elbows, R3), Charriere (punch, R3) and Cub Swanson (punch, R1). The Swanson stoppage came faster than the other two, which suggests the damage is building up. Here he moves up to lightweight after 11 UFC fights at featherweight, so he gives up his size advantage and faces a longer, heavier 155er with a 6'0"/75" frame against his own 5'9"/72". Nallo's one-fight sample (8.26 SLpM, 58% accuracy, 5.03 SApM) is too small to trust, but it fits his finishing profile: his DWCS win over Samuel Silva was a KO. Both men take damage easily (Nallo absorbs 5.03 per minute and Landwehr 5.96), so this should be a firefight. In an exchange-heavy fight, the man with the reach advantage and the fresher chin should land the deciding shot. Landwehr's best path is pressure and wrestling (0.73 TD/15, 0.7 sub attempts) against Nallo's untested ground game. Nallo was also stopped in R1 by Herbert, so he can be finished too. I'm moving slightly below the market rather than above it because Nallo's own chin is unproven and his UFC sample is one fight.

GPTStarting from the supplied 70% market probability, I favor Nallo but reduce confidence to 64%. Landwehr's three consecutive knockout losses and negative striking differential support Nallo's stoppage opportunity, aided by his listed reach advantage. However, Nallo also lost his latest fight by knockout, and his striking averages come from only one UFC appearance. Opponent-adjusted Elo favors Landwehr 53%, providing a counterweight, although Nallo's provisional rating limits that signal's reliability. Landwehr's greater UFC experience and demonstrated grappling offer upset routes. Their similar 177- and 184-day layoffs create no substantial inactivity concern. The unspecified weight class adds uncertainty given their different recent divisions. Method percentages are conditional on Nallo winning.

CLAUDEThe market has Diniz at 67%, but Elo is close to a coin flip (53%), and that gap matters. On paper Boser has the better striking numbers: +1.82 per-minute differential, 4.82 SLpM against 3.00 SApM, and 57% defense. Diniz is at +0.27 (3.89 SLpM against 3.62 SApM). Those career numbers flatter Boser, though. He fought only once between August 2023 and April 2026, and in that return Gokhan Saricam knocked him out in R2. That is his second KO loss in his last three fights (Cutelaba in R1 was the other), and he spent part of that stretch at light heavyweight before coming back to heavyweight. Diniz has real risks too. He has been stopped twice in his last three (Tybura, then Mario Pinto in R2), and he has been out 366 days, which is long but under the ~450-day level where layoffs become a serious concern. He is the bigger man (6'4"/254 lb/79" against 6'2"/245 lb/75"), and his 4-inch reach advantage is the deciding factor at heavyweight against a volume-jab striker like Boser. Diniz's wins come from measured, higher-accuracy striking (56%), shown in his decisions over Alvin Hines and Karl Williams. Boser will probably have home support as an Albertan, but that doesn't change the physical gap. Neither fighter offers any takedown threat, so this stays standing for all of it. I take Diniz but stay between the market and Elo, because both chins have recently failed and Boser's output can win rounds.

GPTDiniz starts at the supplied 67% market probability, but opponent-adjusted Elo gives him only 53%. Boser's superior striking differential (+1.82 versus +0.27) supports narrowing that edge, although two stoppage losses in his last three fights weaken his career defensive numbers. Diniz's reach advantage and slightly higher accuracy favor him in a matchup with little recorded offensive wrestling. Both have recent stoppage vulnerabilities. Diniz's roughly yearlong absence adds uncertainty; Boser returned from a 987-day gap with a knockout loss and now has approximately six months between bouts. Conflicting record and recent-form fields further limit confidence. Diniz remains the pick, with a second-round stoppage a plausible but uncertain outcome. Method percentages are conditional on a Diniz win.

CLAUDENeither heavyweight has a UFC fight on record, so every UFCStats field for both of them is empty. That means no data, not weakness, and none of it is used here. The data lists a 5-0 record for Mahjoub and 6-0 for Faglier but does not say who they beat. Their heights and reaches are not given either, so the usual size and range checks for heavyweights can't be done. Kalshi prices the fight at 51/49 in Mahjoub's favor with a 2-point spread, which is essentially a coin flip. The one concrete difference is preparation. Mahjoub was booked against Louie Sutherland, so he has had a full camp aimed at this date. Faglier was named the replacement on September 30, about 17 days before the event. That is enough time to make heavyweight comfortably, but not enough for a full camp, and he is adjusting to a new opponent for his UFC debut. That has been public for about two weeks and is probably mostly priced in, so I move only a point off the market and do not double-count it. Mahjoub turns 35 before the fight (born May 1991). That matters less at heavyweight than in lighter divisions, but it trims any edge from his longer camp. The method projection follows the division rather than either fighter: two undefeated, lightly tested heavyweights making their UFC debut tend to fight with adrenaline and power, and the first round is where most of these fights end. Confidence stays near 50 because the data cannot separate these two in any real way.

GPTMahjoub gets a narrow pick from the supplied normalized market probability of 51%. Faglier's replacement announcement came 17 days before the event and is likely already priced in, so it warrants no additional adjustment. Both are UFC debutants; the listed 5-0 and 6-0 records are mislabeled as UFC records and establish no opposition-quality advantage. Missing fight histories prevent assessing layoffs or recent trends. Decision is a low-conviction choice assuming three rounds; method probabilities are conditional on Mahjoub winning and highly uncertain.

CLAUDEKalshi has Cerminara at 68%. I take her side but at 63. That is partly because a debutant is involved, which caps confidence at 65, and partly because the layoff and age risk is real. Cerminara has 17 UFC fights on file, and her pattern is clear: 4.58 significant strikes landed per minute against 4.48 absorbed, 34% accuracy, 62% striking defense, and very little wrestling (0.31 takedowns per 15 minutes at 15% accuracy). All five fights in her recent log went to decision. She is a high-volume, range-based kickboxer who wins rounds with output and length (5'9" with a 68-inch reach, which is long for flyweight). Her two straight losses came by unanimous decision against Maycee Barber and Manon Fiorot, both elite opponents, and before that she beat Viviane Araujo, Jennifer Maia and Amanda Ribas. Losing on points to two title-level opponents is not a sign of decline in itself. The concerns are real, though. Her layoff is 947 days, more than double the ~450-day level where layoff becomes a material risk. She will be 37 on fight night. Her 50% takedown defense also leaves a possible opening if Stiller turns out to be a wrestler. Stiller is 6-1 according to the data but has no UFC fights, and nothing in the data describes her style or level of opposition. She accepted the fight about 17 days out after Jamey-Lyn Horth withdrew with a training injury. Taking a UFC debut on short notice against a 17-fight UFC veteran with a range-and-volume style is a hard assignment, and it largely offsets Cerminara's rust. If Cerminara wins, the most likely path is a 30-27 or 29-28 decision built on her jab, kicks and output. A finish either way is unlikely, given that none of her last five fights ended early and the data has nothing showing Stiller has finishing power.

GPTThe 68% market prior favors Cerminara, whose 17 UFC appearances provide substantially more established evidence. However, her 947-day layoff, consecutive decision losses and narrow career striking differential warrant reducing confidence to 64%. Losses to Barber and Fiorot do not establish that debutant Stiller can replicate their success. Stiller's listed 6-1 record is not a UFC record, and her missing statistics leave considerable matchup uncertainty. Her reported replacement booking suggests limited preparation, but that older news is likely reflected in the price. All five of Cerminara's latest bouts reached decisions, supporting a decision pick. Method percentages are conditional on a Cerminara victory.

CLAUDEThis is a coin flip, and the market agrees: -110 on both sides, 50/50 after removing the vig. Elo leans slightly to Anheliger at 53/47, but both ratings are provisional (4 and 1 rated fights), so that lean counts for little. Both men carry serious layoff risk. Anheliger has been out 709 days rehabbing a knee and will be about 39 years and 10 months old on fight night. His own description of the time away was 'maintenance, rehab and re-strengthening', and his return was moved twice (Shanghai, then Vegas) before landing here. Koslow's layoff is worse: 1,402 days since his only UFC fight, a third-round TKO loss to Cameron Saaiman in December 2022. Stylistically Koslow is the problem for Anheliger. In that one UFC sample he averaged 5.28 takedowns per 15 minutes at 55% accuracy, while Anheliger stops only 38% of takedowns, and his UFC losses all came against opponents who could grapple: decisions to Alatengheili and Cody Gibson, and a rear-naked choke from Jose Johnson. Koslow is also nearly 10 years younger and has a 5-inch reach edge (69 vs 64). Against that, Koslow's single fight showed a wrestler who faded and got stopped late. He landed just 0.77 significant strikes per minute and absorbed 3.73, with 40% striking defense. Anheliger is the more complete, more tested fighter (2-2 in the UFC against a reasonable level of opposition, 3.11 strikes landed per minute vs 2.76 absorbed). He fights in his home province of Alberta, and he showed over-the-distance durability against Grigoriou and Gibson. A nearly four-year layoff is the less known quantity, and Koslow's 125 lb listed weight hints at a smaller frame against a natural bantamweight. I side with Elo's small lean to Anheliger and keep the number almost even: Koslow wins early takedown exchanges, and Anheliger takes over as Koslow's pace drops, much like the Saaiman fight.

GPTStarting from the 50% market baseline, Anheliger earns a slight lean through better striking output and defense across a larger UFC sample. Provisional Elo also gives him 53%, offering limited support. Koslow's takedown activity threatens Anheliger's 38% takedown defense, but his statistics reflect only one UFC appearance. Both layoffs are substantial: 709 days for Anheliger and 1,402 for Koslow. Anheliger's documented knee rehabilitation offsets some advantage from the shorter absence. His statistical record also omits the latest Gibson loss, tempering confidence in the career averages. Decision is the narrow method preference; method percentages are conditional on an Anheliger victory.

CLAUDEThe market (70%) and Elo (56%, with Croden provisional on 3 fights) both pick Croden, and the matchup numbers support them. Croden does more work on both ends: 4.27 SLpM against 2.13 absorbed, 59% striking defense, plus a real wrestling layer at 2.02 takedowns per 15 minutes on 50% accuracy. Chandler's defensive numbers are among the weakest on this card: 40% striking defense, 4.27 SApM and only 25% takedown defense. Croden's takedowns should land often, and she can mix them into her striking to win rounds clearly. Chandler's armbar win over Priscila Cachoeira in June 2026 is a reminder that she can finish from bottom or in scrambles (0.3 sub attempts/15). Croden needs to be disciplined in top position, but Chandler's southpaw stance doesn't offset the wrestling gap. Chandler's UFC losses have mostly been decisions to well-rounded fighters (Dumont, Yana Santos), plus a R1 KO by Joselyne Edwards. Croden is a disciplined three-round fighter: a U-DEC over Zhelezniakova, a close U-DEC loss to Luana Santos, and a late R3 TKO of Tainara Lisboa. She is also the Canadian fighter here, fighting in Edmonton. The most likely result is a clear decision built on volume and takedowns, with a late TKO possible if Chandler's poor defense breaks down.

GPTCroden starts from the supplied 70% market probability. Her superior striking differential (+2.14 versus -0.75) and takedown volume against Chandler's 25% takedown defense offer multiple ways to win rounds. Opponent-adjusted Elo favors Croden at only 56%, warranting a modest confidence reduction, although her rating is provisional after three UFC fights. Chandler's latest submission win shows a credible upset route and supersedes the stale statistical fight log. Neither supplied layoff, 177 and 128 days, is concerning. Decisions dominate the listed histories, making a points win most likely. Method percentages are conditional on Croden winning.

CLAUDEThe market has Chovancek at -150 (58% after removing the vig), with no Elo rating available. Because Chovancek is debuting, my confidence is capped at 65. He is 9-0 with every win a finish and earned his contract with a KO of Raphael Uchegbu on DWCS in September 2025. That makes his layoff 391 days, which is notable but under the 450-day danger line. His UFCStats-style numbers (2.85 strikes landed and 2.46 absorbed per minute, 50% accuracy, 83% takedown defense) come from regional and DWCS footage, so treat them as directional only. SuYoung You is a control grappler who wins on volume of takedowns rather than damage: 6 TD/15 at 63%, but only 1.77 strikes landed per minute at 38% accuracy. In his most recent fight he was choked out by Elijah Smith in March 2026, his first loss in five. Before that he won three straight UFC decisions (Xiao Long, AJ Cunningham, Jieleyisi), all against lower-tier bantamweight opposition. The data feed also conflicts on the Jieleyisi result: the history table lists it as a loss. The fight comes down to whether You can get Chovancek down and keep him there. Chovancek has a 2-inch height and reach edge, can switch stances, and will have a clear power edge standing. You's 64% striking defense and lack of UFC stoppage losses on the feet say he can survive, but every exchange on the feet favors Chovancek. I stay just under the market because the debut and the year-long layoff add uncertainty in both directions. I pick Decision rather than a KO: You's style drags fights long, and even a winning Chovancek likely has to defend takedowns for 15 minutes.

GPTI side with Chovancek at the supplied 58% de-vigged market probability. His reported unbeaten record and latest knockout offer support, but his UFC debut makes the supplied statistical averages unreliable. You's established takedown production presents the clearest upset route. The latest log shows a submission loss following four decision wins, superseding the stale unbeaten summary without establishing a sustained decline. Chovancek's 391-day layoff versus You's 212 days adds uncertainty, although neither exceeds the roughly 450-day material-risk threshold. Opposition quality is insufficiently documented to justify a larger adjustment. Decision is a tentative method lean given You's decision-heavy recent wins and defensive numbers. Method percentages are conditional on Chovancek winning.