November 8, 2025
UFC Fight Night: Bonfim vs. Brown
Card complete. GPT 8/12 (67%) · Claude 10/12 (83%)
All results
Both models agree 10 of 12 fights
Josh Hokit over Max Gimenis
Both call Decision
Claude 68%
GPT 80%
GPT 80%
Jacqueline Cavalcanti over Mayra Bueno Silva
Both call Decision
Claude 72%
GPT 75%
GPT 75%
Gabriel Bonfim over Randy Brown
Both call Submission
Claude 72%
GPT 68%
GPT 68%
Hyder Amil over Jamall Emmers
Both call Decision
Claude 72%
GPT 67%
GPT 67%
Uros Medic over Muslim Salikhov
Both call KO/TKO
Claude 65%
GPT 67%
GPT 67%
Christian Leroy Duncan over Marco Tulio
Claude 68%
GPT 62%
GPT 62%
Raoni Barcelos over Ricky Simon
Both call Decision
Claude 65%
GPT 65%
GPT 65%
Tecia Pennington over Denise Gomes
Both call Decision
Claude 65%
GPT 65%
GPT 65%
Daniel Marcos over Miles Johns
Both call Decision
Claude 62%
GPT 67%
GPT 67%
Zach Reese over Jackson McVey
Both call Submission
Claude 58%
GPT 70%
GPT 70%
Double locks: both at 75% or higher 0 fights
Nothing clears the 75% bar from both models. The genie is hedging tonight.
Build your own list 10 match
Josh Hokit over Max Gimenis
Both call Decision
Claude 68%
GPT 80%
GPT 80%
Jacqueline Cavalcanti over Mayra Bueno Silva
Both call Decision
Claude 72%
GPT 75%
GPT 75%
Gabriel Bonfim over Randy Brown
Both call Submission
Claude 72%
GPT 68%
GPT 68%
Hyder Amil over Jamall Emmers
Both call Decision
Claude 72%
GPT 67%
GPT 67%
Uros Medic over Muslim Salikhov
Both call KO/TKO
Claude 65%
GPT 67%
GPT 67%
Christian Leroy Duncan over Marco Tulio
Claude 68%
GPT 62%
GPT 62%
Raoni Barcelos over Ricky Simon
Both call Decision
Claude 65%
GPT 65%
GPT 65%
Tecia Pennington over Denise Gomes
Both call Decision
Claude 65%
GPT 65%
GPT 65%
Daniel Marcos over Miles Johns
Both call Decision
Claude 62%
GPT 67%
GPT 67%
Zach Reese over Jackson McVey
Both call Submission
Claude 58%
GPT 70%
GPT 70%
Win confidence is the model's probability that its pick wins: 55 to 64 is a shrug, 65 to 74 is confident, 75 and up is the model betting its reputation.
KO/TKO, Submission, Decision is how the model splits the ways the fight ends, out of 100.
Odds are the sportsbook moneyline with the bookmaker margin removed, so the two percentages sum to 100. When a model's confidence beats the market's implied number, that gap is the value.
Elo is an opponent adjusted rating built from every UFC fight since 1994. Click any Elo number on the card for the full explanation, including what the star means.
FINAL: Gabriel Bonfim by KO/TKO Knee
Bonfim WWWLW 119d out Brown WLWWW 196d out last 5
Gabriel Bonfim last fought 119 days ago
W
vs Stephen Thompson · S-DEC2025-07-12
W
vs Khaos Williams · SUB D'Arce Choke2025-02-15
W
vs Ange Loosa · U-DEC2024-02-03
L
vs Nicolas Dalby · KO/TKO2023-11-04
W
vs Trevin Giles · SUB2023-07-29
Randy Brown last fought 196 days ago
W
vs Nicolas Dalby · KO/TKO Punch2025-04-26
L
vs Bryan Battle · S-DEC2024-12-07
W
vs Muslim Salikhov · KO/TKO2024-02-03
W
vs Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos · U-DEC2024-01-01
W
vs Wellington Turman · U-DEC2023-06-24
Claude HIT
Gabriel Bonfim
72%win confidence
KO/TKO 15%
Submission 55%
Decision 30%
Bonfim's elite grappling (2.92 TD/15min, 75% accuracy, 1.9 subs/15min) presents a nightmare matchup for Brown's vulnerable ground game (70% TDD). While Brown has the physical advantages (6'3" vs 6'1", 78" reach vs 72"), Bonfim's recent wins over Stephen Thompson and Khaos Williams demonstrate his ab...
GPT HIT
Gabriel Bonfim
68%win confidence
KO/TKO 12%
Submission 54%
Decision 34%
Bonfim's aggressive grappling, high takedown accuracy (75%), and submission activity (1.9 subs per fight) create a stylistic challenge for Brown, whose takedown defense (70%) has faltered against strong grapplers historically. Brown's reach could help on the feet, but Bonfim's higher volume and pres...
FINAL: Joseph Morales by SUB Guillotine Choke
Schnell WLLLW 196d out Morales WLLW 84d out last 5
Matt Schnell last fought 196 days ago
W
vs Jimmy Flick · U-DEC2025-04-26
L
vs Cody Durden · SUB2024-03-23
L
vs Steve Erceg · KO/TKO2024-03-02
L
vs Matheus Nicolau · KO/TKO2022-12-03
W
vs Sumudaerji · SUB2022-07-16
Joseph Morales last fought 84 days ago
W
vs Alibi Idiris · SUB Triangle Choke2025-08-16
L
vs Eric Shelton · S-DEC2018-11-10
L
vs Deiveson Figueiredo · KO/TKO2018-02-03
W
vs Robert Sanchez · SUB2017-08-05
Claude HIT
Joseph Morales
68%win confidence
KO/TKO 20%
Submission 50%
Decision 30%
This matchup heavily favors Morales despite his long layoff. Schnell is on a devastating 4-fight losing streak (2 TKOs, 2 submissions) and has shown severe durability issues. Morales' 13-2 record with 3 submission wins in his last 5 fights indicates elite grappling ability (2.6 subs/15min). While Sc...
GPT MISS
Matt Schnell
68%win confidence
KO/TKO 10%
Submission 25%
Decision 65%
Schnell's superior striking output, UFC experience, and marginally better defensive metrics give him the edge in a matchup where both fighters are submission-oriented. Morales has more aggressive submission attempts but lacks proven effectiveness against higher-level competition and has a low takedo...
FINAL: Uros Medic by KO/TKO Punch
Salikhov LWLLW 350d out Medic WLWLW 91d out last 5
Muslim Salikhov last fought 350 days ago
L
vs Song Kenan · 2024-11-23
W
vs Santiago Ponzinibbio · S-DEC2024-02-03
L
vs Randy Brown · KO/TKO2024-02-03
L
vs Nicolas Dalby · U-DEC2023-06-17
W
vs Andre Fialho · KO/TKO2022-11-19
Uros Medic last fought 91 days ago
W
vs Gilbert Urbina · KO/TKO Punch2025-08-09
L
vs Punahele Soriano · KO/TKO Punch2025-01-11
W
vs Tim Means · KO/TKO2024-04-27
L
vs Myktybek Orolbai · SUB2023-11-18
W
vs Matthew Semelsberger · KO/TKO2023-07-29
Claude HIT
Uros Medic
65%win confidence
KO/TKO 55%
Submission 10%
Decision 35%
Medic's explosive striking (5.51 SLPM, 60% accuracy) and finishing ability create a dangerous matchup for the aging Salikhov. While Salikhov has shown improved durability with recent TKO wins, his defensive striking (63% vs 58%) won't be enough against Medic's volume and power. The southpaw vs ortho...
GPT HIT
Uros Medic
67%win confidence
KO/TKO 60%
Submission 5%
Decision 35%
Medic's significant striking volume (5.51 SLpM) and high accuracy (60%) present a substantial threat to Salikhov, who absorbs fewer but is less active. Medic's aggressive style and physical edge (height/reach) could overwhelm Salikhov, whose striking defense (63%) is solid but not elite. Salikhov's ...
FINAL: Chris Padilla by KO/TKO Punches
Padilla WWW 231d out Bonfim LWLW 266d out last 5
Chris Padilla last fought 231 days ago
W
vs Jai Herbert · S-DEC2025-03-22
W
vs James Llontop · SUB2024-04-27
W
vs Rongzhu · KO/TKO2024-03-23
Ismael Bonfim last fought 266 days ago
L
vs Nazim Sadykhov · KO/TKO2025-02-15
W
vs Vinc Pichel · U-DEC2023-12-09
L
vs Benoit Saint Denis · SUB2023-07-01
W
vs Terrance McKinney · KO/TKO2023-01-21
Claude HIT
Chris Padilla
68%win confidence
KO/TKO 25%
Submission 45%
Decision 30%
Padilla's recent form shows exceptional finishing ability with 3 consecutive finishes (2 TKO, 1 SUB). His 75% takedown accuracy and 3.26 takedowns per fight create significant grappling pressure against Bonfim's 76% takedown defense. Padilla's 1.1 submissions per fight and recent submission victorie...
GPT MISS
Ismael Bonfim
78%win confidence
KO/TKO 24%
Submission 8%
Decision 68%
Bonfim's superior striking defense and differential, along with his proven takedown defense, give him a significant edge. While Padilla is aggressive with both striking and takedowns, his low defensive metrics (46% striking defense, 0% takedown defense) leave him vulnerable to Bonfim's accurate, hig...
FINAL: Christian Leroy Duncan by KO/TKO Punch
Duncan WWWLW 91d out Tulio WW 210d out last 5
Christian Leroy Duncan last fought 91 days ago
W
vs Eryk Anders · KO/TKO Punches2025-08-09
W
vs Andrey Pulyaev · U-DEC2025-03-22
W
vs Claudio Ribeiro · KO/TKO2024-03-02
L
vs Gregory Rodrigues · U-DEC2024-02-17
W
vs Denis Tiuliulin · KO/TKO2023-11-18
Marco Tulio last fought 210 days ago
W
vs Tresean Gore · KO/TKO Punch2025-04-12
W
vs Ihor Potieria · KO/TKO Punches2025-01-11
Claude HIT
Christian Leroy Duncan
68%win confidence
KO/TKO 55%
Submission 10%
Decision 35%
Duncan's significant reach advantage (79" vs 74") and superior striking accuracy (62% vs 51%) create a clear path to victory. His recent form shows 2 KO/TKO wins in his last 4 fights, demonstrating finishing power. Tulio's poor takedown defense (0%) and lower striking defense (58% vs Duncan's 49%) m...
GPT HIT
Christian Leroy Duncan
62%win confidence
KO/TKO 15%
Submission 8%
Decision 77%
Duncan's superior striking accuracy (62%) and volume, combined with a 5-inch reach advantage, give him the edge on the feet, while Tulio's low takedown accuracy (20%) and 0% takedown defense may limit his grappling effectiveness. Tulio is more defensively sound but absorbs less damage, suggesting he...
FINAL: Jamall Emmers by U-DEC
Amil LWWW 133d out Emmers WLWLW 224d out last 5
Hyder Amil last fought 133 days ago
L
vs Jose Delgado · KO/TKO Knee2025-06-28
W
vs William Gomis · S-DEC2025-03-01
W
vs Fernie Garcia · KO/TKO2024-02-10
W
vs JeongYeong Lee · KO/TKO2024-02-10
Jamall Emmers last fought 224 days ago
W
vs Gabriel Miranda · KO/TKO Punch2025-03-29
L
vs Nate Landwehr · KO/TKO2024-03-30
W
vs Dennis Buzukja · KO/TKO2023-11-11
L
vs Jack Jenkins · S-DEC2023-06-24
W
vs Khusein Askhabov · U-DEC2023-02-18
Claude MISS
Hyder Amil
72%win confidence
KO/TKO 40%
Submission 15%
Decision 45%
Amil's perfect 3-0 record with all KO/TKO victories showcases elite finishing ability. His superior striking volume (6.31 vs 5.30 SLPM) and accuracy (57% vs 48%) create consistent offensive pressure. Emmers' recent loss via KO/TKO and mixed 2-3 record over his last 5 fights indicates vulnerability. ...
GPT MISS
Hyder Amil
67%win confidence
KO/TKO 15%
Submission 12%
Decision 73%
Amil's high striking output and superior striking accuracy (57% vs. 48%) along with a strong striking differential (+4.08) give him a clear edge on the feet. Emmers has better takedown volume and accuracy, but Amil's solid takedown defense (78%) and Emmers' low submission threat (0.2 per fight) mini...
FINAL: Raoni Barcelos by U-DEC
Simon WLLLW 259d out Barcelos WWWLL 147d out last 5
Ricky Simon last fought 259 days ago
W
vs Javid Basharat · KO/TKO Punch2025-02-22
L
vs Vinicius Oliveira · U-DEC2024-01-27
L
vs Mario Bautista · U-DEC2024-01-13
L
vs Song Yadong · KO/TKO2023-04-29
W
vs Jack Shore · SUB2022-07-16
Raoni Barcelos last fought 147 days ago
W
vs Cody Garbrandt · U-DEC2025-06-14
W
vs Payton Talbott · U-DEC2025-01-18
W
vs Cristian Quinonez · SUB2024-02-24
L
vs Kyler Phillips · U-DEC2023-08-05
L
vs Umar Nurmagomedov · KO/TKO2023-01-14
Claude HIT
Raoni Barcelos
65%win confidence
KO/TKO 20%
Submission 25%
Decision 55%
Barcelos' superior striking metrics (5.22 SLPM vs 2.99, 51% accuracy vs 43%) and positive striking differential (+0.43 vs -0.85) create a clear advantage. Simon's 4-fight losing streak reveals declining performance, while Barcelos shows resilience with a recent submission victory. Barcelos' 85% take...
GPT HIT
Raoni Barcelos
65%win confidence
KO/TKO 12%
Submission 10%
Decision 78%
Barcelos holds significant advantages in striking volume, accuracy, and striking differential. His superior takedown defense (85%) should neutralize Simon's wrestling-heavy game, forcing Simon to engage more on the feet, where Barcelos is more effective. Simon's negative striking differential and lo...
FINAL: Jacqueline Cavalcanti by U-DEC
Silva LLLLW 280d out Cavalcanti WWWW 266d out last 5
Mayra Bueno Silva last fought 280 days ago
L
vs Jasmine Jasudavicius · U-DEC2025-02-01
L
vs Macy Chiasson · KO/TKO2024-01-27
L
vs Raquel Pennington · U-DEC2024-01-20
L
vs Holly Holm · Overturned2023-07-15
W
vs Lina Lansberg · SUB2023-02-18
Jacqueline Cavalcanti last fought 266 days ago
W
vs Julia Avila · U-DEC2025-02-15
W
vs Nora Cornolle · S-DEC2024-04-06
W
vs Josiane Nunes · S-DEC2024-03-16
W
vs Zarah Fairn · U-DEC2023-09-02
Claude HIT
Jacqueline Cavalcanti
72%win confidence
KO/TKO 25%
Submission 15%
Decision 60%
Cavalcanti's superior striking metrics and perfect recent form create a significant advantage. Her 6.02 SLPM vs Silva's 4.01, combined with much better striking defense (72% vs 52%) and a +2.8 striking differential compared to Silva's -0.99 presents a clear path to victory. Silva's 4-fight losing st...
GPT HIT
Jacqueline Cavalcanti
75%win confidence
KO/TKO 10%
Submission 5%
Decision 85%
Cavalcanti's significantly superior striking output (6.02 SLpM vs 4.01), better strike differential (+2.8 vs -0.99), and elite defensive metrics (72% striking defense, 90% takedown defense) give her a strong edge in a likely standup-heavy contest. Bueno Silva's grappling threat is limited by low tak...
FINAL: Josh Hokit by KO/TKO Punches
Claude HIT
Josh Hokit
68%win confidence
KO/TKO 20%
Submission 25%
Decision 55%
This matchup heavily favors Hokit due to Gimenis having zero UFC stats recorded - no striking metrics, no grappling data, and 0% accuracy across the board. Hokit shows solid fundamentals with 77% striking accuracy, 4.43 SLPM, and an exceptional 14.75 takedowns per fight. The 20-pound weight advantag...
GPT HIT
Josh Hokit
80%win confidence
KO/TKO 15%
Submission 20%
Decision 65%
Josh Hokit displays overwhelming grappling metrics with 14.75 takedowns per fight and 77% striking accuracy, while Max Gimenis has no measurable UFC stats, indicating inexperience or lack of demonstrated effectiveness at this level. Hokit's wrestling volume and control should dominate against an opp...
FINAL: Denise Gomes by U-DEC
Pennington WWLLW 175d out Gomes WLWLW 175d out last 5
Tecia Pennington last fought 175 days ago
W
vs Luana Pinheiro · U-DEC2025-05-17
W
vs Carla Esparza · U-DEC2024-04-13
L
vs Tabatha Ricci · S-DEC2023-12-16
L
vs Mackenzie Dern · S-DEC2022-04-09
W
vs Angela Hill · U-DEC2021-08-07
Denise Gomes last fought 175 days ago
W
vs Elise Reed · KO/TKO Punches2025-05-17
L
vs win · 2024-11-09
W
vs Eduarda Moura · S-DEC2024-01-06
L
vs Angela Hill · U-DEC2023-11-04
W
vs Yazmin Jauregui · KO/TKO2023-07-08
Claude MISS
Tecia Pennington
65%win confidence
KO/TKO 10%
Submission 5%
Decision 85%
Common opponent analysis strongly favors Pennington - she defeated Angela Hill twice while Gomes lost to Hill twice, establishing a clear hierarchy. Pennington's veteran experience (19 UFC fights vs Gomes' 6) and superior striking defense (61% vs 50%) provide crucial advantages. While their offensiv...
GPT MISS
Tecia Pennington
65%win confidence
KO/TKO 5%
Submission 10%
Decision 85%
Pennington holds statistical edges in striking defense (61% vs 50%) and striking volume, with a positive differential in significant strikes landed per minute. Her experience against higher-level competition, superior defensive metrics, and better performances versus common opponents indicate she ca...
FINAL: Daniel Marcos by SUB Rear Naked Choke
Johns LLWWL 91d out Marcos LWWWW 189d out last 5
Miles Johns last fought 91 days ago
L
vs Jean Matsumoto · S-DEC2025-08-09
L
vs Felipe Lima · U-DEC2024-12-14
W
vs Cody Gibson · U-DEC2024-03-23
W
vs Douglas Silva de Andrade · U-DEC2024-01-13
L
vs Dan Argueta · Overturned2023-09-23
Daniel Marcos last fought 189 days ago
L
vs Montel Jackson · U-DEC2025-05-03
W
vs Adrian Yanez · S-DEC2024-12-14
W
vs Aoriqileng · CNC2024-02-10
W
vs John Castaneda · U-DEC2024-01-06
W
vs Davey Grant · S-DEC2023-07-22
Claude HIT
Daniel Marcos
62%win confidence
KO/TKO 15%
Submission 10%
Decision 75%
Marcos holds significant advantages in striking volume (5.94 vs 3.28 SLPM) and striking differential (+1.94 vs +0.74). His perfect UFC record (5-0) demonstrates consistent execution against UFC-level competition. While Johns has superior wrestling credentials (85% TDD), Marcos' 87% TDD neutralizes t...
GPT HIT
Daniel Marcos
67%win confidence
KO/TKO 18%
Submission 2%
Decision 80%
Daniel Marcos holds significant advantages in striking volume, accuracy, and effective strike rate. He has performed better against common opponents and possesses a higher win rate. Johns is defensively sound but struggles with offensive output and rarely finishes fights. Marcos's takedown defense s...
FINAL: Zach Reese by SUB Rear Naked Choke
Reese L 707d out McVey L 112d out last 5
Zach Reese last fought 707 days ago, long layoff
L
vs Cody Brundage · KO/TKO2023-12-02
Jackson McVey last fought 112 days ago
L
vs Brunno Ferreira · SUB Armbar2025-07-19
Claude HIT
Zach Reese
58%win confidence
KO/TKO 20%
Submission 55%
Decision 25%
This matchup features extremely limited data on McVey (UFC debut, no recorded stats), making Reese the default pick based on available information. Reese's 9.8 submission average is extraordinarily high, suggesting a grappling-heavy approach. His 77-inch reach at 6'4" provides significant physical a...
GPT HIT
Zach Reese
70%win confidence
KO/TKO 10%
Submission 65%
Decision 25%
Zach Reese holds a substantial advantage in submission attempts per fight (9.8), indicating a dangerous grappling threat. While his defensive metrics are concerning, Jackson McVey has no recorded UFC stats, suggesting inexperience or lack of high-level data. Reese's striking accuracy is high (66%), ...