February 7, 2026
UFC Fight Night: Bautista vs. Oliveira
Card complete. GPT 6/12 (50%) · Claude 5/12 (42%)
All results
Both models agree 12 of 13 fights
Ketlen Souza over Bruna Brasil
Claude 78%
GPT 72%
GPT 72%
Farid Basharat over Jean Matsumoto
Both call Decision
Claude 72%
GPT 76%
GPT 76%
Dustin Jacoby over Julius Walker
Both call KO/TKO
Claude 68%
GPT 78%
GPT 78%
Jailton Almeida over Rizvan Kuniev
Both call Submission
Claude 72%
GPT 72%
GPT 72%
Alex Morono over Daniil Donchenko
Both call Decision
Claude 65%
GPT 78%
GPT 78%
Muin Gafurov over Jakub Wiklacz
Both call Decision
Claude 68%
GPT 71%
GPT 71%
Wang Cong over Eduarda Moura
Claude 75%
GPT 63%
GPT 63%
Kyoji Horiguchi over Amir Albazi
Both call Decision
Claude 68%
GPT 68%
GPT 68%
Niko Price over Nikolay Veretennikov
Both call KO/TKO
Claude 72%
GPT 63%
GPT 63%
Javid Basharat over Said Nurmagomedov
Both call Decision
Claude 65%
GPT 69%
GPT 69%
Vinicius Oliveira over Mario Bautista
Both call Decision
Claude 62%
GPT 64%
GPT 64%
Marc-Andre Barriault over Michal Oleksiejczuk
Both call Decision
Claude 62%
GPT 63%
GPT 63%
Double locks: both at 75% or higher 0 fights
Nothing clears the 75% bar from both models. The genie is hedging tonight.
Build your own list 12 match
Ketlen Souza over Bruna Brasil
Claude 78%
GPT 72%
GPT 72%
Farid Basharat over Jean Matsumoto
Both call Decision
Claude 72%
GPT 76%
GPT 76%
Dustin Jacoby over Julius Walker
Both call KO/TKO
Claude 68%
GPT 78%
GPT 78%
Jailton Almeida over Rizvan Kuniev
Both call Submission
Claude 72%
GPT 72%
GPT 72%
Alex Morono over Daniil Donchenko
Both call Decision
Claude 65%
GPT 78%
GPT 78%
Muin Gafurov over Jakub Wiklacz
Both call Decision
Claude 68%
GPT 71%
GPT 71%
Wang Cong over Eduarda Moura
Claude 75%
GPT 63%
GPT 63%
Kyoji Horiguchi over Amir Albazi
Both call Decision
Claude 68%
GPT 68%
GPT 68%
Niko Price over Nikolay Veretennikov
Both call KO/TKO
Claude 72%
GPT 63%
GPT 63%
Javid Basharat over Said Nurmagomedov
Both call Decision
Claude 65%
GPT 69%
GPT 69%
Vinicius Oliveira over Mario Bautista
Both call Decision
Claude 62%
GPT 64%
GPT 64%
Marc-Andre Barriault over Michal Oleksiejczuk
Both call Decision
Claude 62%
GPT 63%
GPT 63%
Win confidence is the model's probability that its pick wins: 55 to 64 is a shrug, 65 to 74 is confident, 75 and up is the model betting its reputation.
KO/TKO, Submission, Decision is how the model splits the ways the fight ends, out of 100.
Odds are the sportsbook moneyline with the bookmaker margin removed, so the two percentages sum to 100. When a model's confidence beats the market's implied number, that gap is the value.
Elo is an opponent adjusted rating built from every UFC fight since 1994. Click any Elo number on the card for the full explanation, including what the star means.
FINAL: Mario Bautista by SUB Rear Naked Choke
Bautista LWWWW 105d out Oliveira WWWW 203d out last 5
Mario Bautista last fought 105 days ago
L
vs Umar Nurmagomedov · U-DEC2025-10-25
W
vs Patchy Mix · U-DEC2025-06-07
W
vs Jose Aldo · S-DEC2024-04-13
W
vs Ricky Simon · U-DEC2024-01-13
W
vs Da'Mon Blackshear · U-DEC2023-08-19
Vinicius Oliveira last fought 203 days ago
W
vs Kyler Phillips · U-DEC2025-07-19
W
vs Said Nurmagomedov · U-DEC2025-02-01
W
vs Benardo Sopaj · KO/TKO2024-03-02
W
vs Ricky Simon · U-DEC2024-01-27
Claude MISS
Vinicius Oliveira
62%win confidence
KO/TKO 25%
Submission 15%
Decision 60%
Oliveira's superior striking differential (+3.0 vs +1.42) and undefeated UFC record suggest he can control the pace. His recent wins over high-level competition (Kyler Phillips, Said Nurmagomedov) demonstrate championship-caliber skills. Bautista's loss to Umar Nurmagomedov exposed vulnerabilities a...
GPT MISS
Vinicius Oliveira
64%win confidence
KO/TKO 27%
Submission 8%
Decision 65%
Oliveira shows a superior striking differential (+3.0 vs Bautista's +1.42) while absorbing significantly fewer strikes per minute, suggesting cleaner shot selection and better distance management. His offensive wrestling metrics (60% TD accuracy vs 33% for Bautista) give him a secondary path if the ...
FINAL: Kyoji Horiguchi by U-DEC
Albazi WWWWW 980d out Horiguchi WWWWL 77d out last 5
Amir Albazi last fought 980 days ago, long layoff
W
vs Kai Kara-France · S-DEC2023-06-03
W
vs Alessandro Costa · KO/TKO2022-12-17
W
vs Francisco Figueiredo · SUB2022-08-20
W
vs Zhalgas Zhumagulov · U-DEC2021-01-23
W
vs Malcolm Gordon · SUB2020-07-18
Kyoji Horiguchi last fought 77 days ago
W
vs Tagir Ulanbekov · SUB Rear Naked Choke2025-11-22
W
vs Ali Bagautinov · U-DEC2016-11-19
W
vs Neil Seery · U-DEC2016-05-08
W
vs Chico Camus · U-DEC2015-09-26
L
vs Demetrious Johnson · SUB2015-04-25
Claude HIT
Kyoji Horiguchi
68%win confidence
KO/TKO 20%
Submission 25%
Decision 55%
Horiguchi's elite experience (35-5 record) and recent submission victories show evolved grappling to complement his karate base. His striking differential (+1.15) significantly outpaces Albazi's (-0.27), while maintaining comparable defensive metrics. Albazi's recent losses to Moreno and Jafel Filho...
GPT HIT
Kyoji Horiguchi
68%win confidence
KO/TKO 18%
Submission 12%
Decision 70%
Horiguchi's higher striking volume, better accuracy, and positive differential suggest he will outwork Albazi over three rounds, while his superior takedown accuracy and defense should allow him to dictate when and if grappling occurs. Albazi is dangerous in scrambles and submissions, but his lower ...
FINAL: Rizvan Kuniev by U-DEC
Almeida LWLWW 105d out Kuniev L 231d out last 5
Jailton Almeida last fought 105 days ago
L
vs Alexander Volkov · S-DEC2025-10-25
W
vs Serghei Spivac · KO/TKO Punches2025-01-18
L
vs Curtis Blaydes · KO/TKO2024-03-09
W
vs Alexandr Romanov · SUB2024-01-01
W
vs Derrick Lewis · U-DEC2023-11-04
Rizvan Kuniev last fought 231 days ago
L
vs Curtis Blaydes · S-DEC2025-06-21
Claude MISS
Jailton Almeida
72%win confidence
KO/TKO 15%
Submission 55%
Decision 30%
Despite recent KO loss to Volkov, Almeida's elite grappling (6.85 takedowns per fight, 2.6 submissions per fight) presents massive problems for Kuniev. The common opponent analysis is crucial - both lost to Curtis Blaydes, but Almeida's submission wins over Romanov and quick finishes show his grappl...
GPT MISS
Jailton Almeida
72%win confidence
KO/TKO 18%
Submission 44%
Decision 38%
Almeida's historically elite top control and submission game, combined with a massive takedown volume (6.85 TDs per 15 with 59% accuracy), projects to outpace Kuniev's more modest but efficient wrestling and striking. Kuniev's inflated striking metrics (5.82 SLpM on 72% accuracy, 100% TD defense) ar...
FINAL: Michal Oleksiejczuk by U-DEC
Oleksiejczuk WWLLL 175d out Barriault WLLWW 273d out last 5
Michal Oleksiejczuk last fought 175 days ago
W
vs Gerald Meerschaert · KO/TKO Punches2025-08-16
W
vs Sedriques Dumas · KO/TKO Punches2025-04-12
L
vs Michel Pereira · SUB2024-03-09
L
vs Shara Magomedov · U-DEC2024-02-24
L
vs Kevin Holland · SUB2024-01-01
Marc-Andre Barriault last fought 273 days ago
W
vs Bruno Silva · KO/TKO Elbows2025-05-10
L
vs Joe Pyfer · KO/TKO2024-01-27
L
vs Chris Curtis · S-DEC2024-01-20
W
vs Eryk Anders · U-DEC2023-06-10
W
vs Julian Marquez · KO/TKO2023-03-04
Claude MISS
Marc-Andre Barriault
62%win confidence
KO/TKO 25%
Submission 15%
Decision 60%
Despite both fighters coming off losing streaks, Barriault's superior striking volume (5.98 SLPM vs 5.27) and better takedown defense (67% vs 48%) provide crucial advantages. Oleksiejczuk's recent form is alarming with 5 consecutive losses, including 3 submissions, exposing major defensive vulnerabi...
GPT MISS
Marc-Andre Barriault
63%win confidence
KO/TKO 32%
Submission 5%
Decision 63%
Barriault's higher output, better durability, and superior takedown defense should allow him to outlast Oleksiejczuk in the extended exchanges where Michal tends to fade. Oleksiejczuk is the more explosive early puncher, but Barriault's cardio, clinch pressure, and ability to keep fights standing ag...
FINAL: Farid Basharat by S-DEC
Matsumoto WLWW 182d out Basharat WWWW 126d out last 5
Jean Matsumoto last fought 182 days ago
W
vs Miles Johns · S-DEC2025-08-09
L
vs Rob Font · S-DEC2025-02-22
W
vs Brad Katona · U-DEC2024-04-27
W
vs Dan Argueta · SUB2024-04-06
Farid Basharat last fought 126 days ago
W
vs Chris Gutierrez · U-DEC2025-10-04
W
vs Taylor Lapilus · U-DEC2024-01-13
W
vs Kleydson Rodrigues · SUB2023-09-02
W
vs Da'Mon Blackshear · U-DEC2023-03-04
Claude HIT
Farid Basharat
72%win confidence
KO/TKO 15%
Submission 25%
Decision 60%
Basharat's superior grappling credentials (3.96 takedowns per fight at 41% accuracy vs Matsumoto's 1.13 at 27%) combined with his striking efficiency advantage (58% accuracy vs 40%) create a clear path to victory. His 83% takedown defense will neutralize Matsumoto's limited wrestling, while his 2.03...
GPT HIT
Farid Basharat
76%win confidence
KO/TKO 18%
Submission 22%
Decision 60%
Basharat has clear statistical edges in striking efficiency, defense, and wrestling volume. He lands slightly less per minute but with far higher accuracy and absorbs roughly half the strikes Matsumoto does, giving him a much better striking differential. His 3.96 takedowns per fight at 41% accuracy...
FINAL: Dustin Jacoby by KO/TKO Punches
Jacoby WWLLW 252d out Walker WL 182d out last 5
Dustin Jacoby last fought 252 days ago
W
vs Bruno Lopes · KO/TKO Punch2025-05-31
W
vs Vitor Petrino · KO/TKO Punch2024-12-14
L
vs Dominick Reyes · KO/TKO2024-01-06
L
vs Alonzo Menifield · U-DEC2023-12-16
W
vs Kennedy Nzechukwu · KO/TKO2023-08-05
Julius Walker last fought 182 days ago
W
vs Rafael Cerqueira · U-DEC2025-08-09
L
vs Alonzo Menifield · S-DEC2025-02-22
Claude HIT
Dustin Jacoby
68%win confidence
KO/TKO 55%
Submission 5%
Decision 40%
Walker's complete lack of UFC data and experience makes this a massive mismatch. Jacoby, despite his recent 3-fight losing streak, brings elite kickboxing with 5.5 strikes landed per minute and a 76-inch reach. His losses came to ranked competition (Alonzo Menifield, Azamat Murzakanov), not UFC debu...
GPT HIT
Dustin Jacoby
78%win confidence
KO/TKO 63%
Submission 4%
Decision 33%
Jacoby is a proven, high-volume, accurate UFC kickboxer with solid striking defense and experience against ranked light heavyweights, while Walker has no meaningful UFC statistical sample or demonstrated effectiveness at this level. Over three rounds, Jacoby's pace, shot selection, and experience ed...
FINAL: Daniil Donchenko by U-DEC
Morono LLWLL 336d out Donchenko W 147d out last 5
Alex Morono last fought 336 days ago
L
vs Carlos Leal · KO/TKO Punches2025-03-08
L
vs Daniel Rodriguez · S-DEC2024-04-27
W
vs Court McGee · U-DEC2024-04-06
L
vs Niko Price · U-DEC2024-01-01
L
vs Joaquin Buckley · U-DEC2023-10-07
Daniil Donchenko last fought 147 days ago
W
vs Rodrigo Sezinando · KO/TKO Punches2025-09-13
Claude MISS
Alex Morono
65%win confidence
KO/TKO 25%
Submission 15%
Decision 60%
Another UFC debutant faces a massive experience gap against Morono's 24 UFC fights. Morono's 4.96 strikes per minute and 40% accuracy may seem modest, but against zero UFC data from Donchenko, it's overwhelming. The 11-year age gap (33 vs 22) suggests Morono's veteran craftiness will exploit Donchen...
GPT MISS
Alex Morono
78%win confidence
KO/TKO 24%
Submission 18%
Decision 58%
Morono brings a long sample of UFC-level output (high SLPM, positive striking differential, and proven durability) against a debuting/unknown quantity in Donchenko with no recorded UFC stats. Morono's experience, pace, and composure in three-round fights should allow him to control range, win minute...
FINAL: Nikolay Veretennikov by KO/TKO Punches
Veretennikov LWLL 126d out Price LLWLL 224d out last 5
Nikolay Veretennikov last fought 126 days ago
L
vs Punahele Soriano · U-DEC2025-10-04
W
vs Francisco Prado · S-DEC2025-07-19
L
vs Austin Vanderford · KO/TKO Punches2025-02-22
L
vs Danny Barlow · S-DEC2024-03-02
Niko Price last fought 224 days ago
L
vs Jacobe Smith · SUB Rear Naked Choke2025-06-28
L
vs Themba Gorimbo · U-DEC2024-04-27
W
vs Alex Morono · U-DEC2024-01-01
L
vs Robbie Lawler · KO/TKO2023-07-08
L
vs Phil Rowe · KO/TKO2022-12-03
Claude MISS
Niko Price
72%win confidence
KO/TKO 45%
Submission 20%
Decision 35%
Price's significant volume advantage (5.21 vs 3.4 SLPM) and proven finishing ability create overwhelming pressure for Veretennikov. While Veretennikov has better striking accuracy (59% vs 42%), Price's 53% higher output and willingness to engage in firefights favors his chaotic style. Veretennikov's...
GPT MISS
Niko Price
63%win confidence
KO/TKO 55%
Submission 12%
Decision 33%
Price's much higher output, proven UFC finishing power, and opportunistic grappling give him more paths to victory against a lower-volume, largely unproven UFC commodity in Veretennikov. While Price's defense and durability have declined, his chaos-heavy style, willingness to push pace, and ability ...
FINAL: Ketlen Souza by U-DEC
Brasil LWLWL 364d out Souza LWWL 357d out last 5
Bruna Brasil last fought 364 days ago
L
vs Wang Cong · U-DEC2025-02-08
W
vs Molly McCann · U-DEC2024-02-17
L
vs Loma Lookboonmee · U-DEC2024-02-10
W
vs Shauna Bannon · U-DEC2023-07-22
L
vs Denise Gomes · KO/TKO2023-04-15
Ketlen Souza last fought 357 days ago
L
vs Angela Hill · S-DEC2025-02-15
W
vs Marnic Mann · U-DEC2024-04-27
W
vs Yazmin Jauregui · SUB2024-03-30
L
vs Karine Silva · SUB2023-06-03
Claude HIT
Ketlen Souza
78%win confidence
KO/TKO 15%
Submission 55%
Decision 30%
Souza's superior striking volume (5.11 vs 2.94 SLPM) and 0.8 submission average create a dual threat Brasil struggles to defend. Souza's 3-fight win streak with 2 recent submissions shows peak form, while Brasil's 50% striking defense leaves her vulnerable to Souza's 66% accurate strikes. The striki...
GPT HIT
Ketlen Souza
72%win confidence
KO/TKO 18%
Submission 12%
Decision 70%
Souza profiles as the higher-output, more efficient striker with better defensive metrics and a strong positive strike differential, while Brasil is negative in exchanges and relies more on opportunistic wrestling that may struggle against Souza's solid takedown defense. Over three rounds, Souza's p...
Nurmagomedov LWLWW 371d out Basharat LLWWW 350d out last 5
Said Nurmagomedov last fought 371 days ago
L
vs Vinicius Oliveira · U-DEC2025-02-01
W
vs Muin Gafurov · SUB2023-10-21
L
vs Jonathan Martinez · U-DEC2023-03-11
W
vs Saidyokub Kakhramonov · SUB2022-12-17
W
vs Douglas Silva de Andrade · U-DEC2022-07-09
Javid Basharat last fought 350 days ago
L
vs Ricky Simon · KO/TKO Punch2025-02-22
L
vs Aiemann Zahabi · U-DEC2024-03-02
W
vs Victor Henry · CNC2023-10-21
W
vs Mateus Mendonca · U-DEC2023-01-14
W
vs Tony Gravely · U-DEC2022-09-17
Claude
Javid Basharat
65%win confidence
KO/TKO 10%
Submission 25%
Decision 65%
Basharat's superior striking metrics (5.42 SLPM, 62% defense) and exceptional 85% takedown defense neutralize Nurmagomedov's primary weapons. While Said averages 1.4 submissions per fight, Basharat's 19% better TDD and higher pace create control issues. Basharat's 1-inch height advantage and similar...
GPT
Javid Basharat
69%win confidence
KO/TKO 18%
Submission 15%
Decision 67%
Basharat's numbers point to a stronger round-winning style: higher output (5.42 SLpM vs 3.55), better accuracy (53% vs 47%), superior strike differential (+2.45 vs +1.42), and much better takedown metrics (1.7 TDs per fight at 40% with 85% TD defense). Said is dangerous with opportunistic submission...
FINAL: Wang Cong by U-DEC
Cong WWWW 245d out Moura WLLW 210d out last 5
Wang Cong last fought 245 days ago
W
vs Ariane da Silva · U-DEC2025-06-07
W
vs Bruna Brasil · U-DEC2025-02-08
W
vs Gabriella Fernandes · 2024-11-23
W
vs Victoria Leonardo · KO/TKO2024-03-16
Eduarda Moura last fought 210 days ago
W
vs Lauren Murphy · U-DEC2025-07-12
L
vs Veronica Hardy · 2024-11-16
L
vs Denise Gomes · S-DEC2024-01-06
W
vs Montserrat Conejo Ruiz · KO/TKO2023-11-04
Claude HIT
Wang Cong
75%win confidence
KO/TKO 65%
Submission 15%
Decision 20%
Wang Cong's striking metrics are overwhelmingly superior - landing 7.07 strikes per minute with 59% accuracy while absorbing only 0.73, creating a +6.34 differential. Moura's recent form is concerning with 3 consecutive losses and poor striking defense at 51%. Wang's 100% finish rate via KO/TKO in h...
GPT HIT
Wang Cong
63%win confidence
KO/TKO 18%
Submission 44%
Decision 38%
Statistically this is an extreme offense-vs-defense grappling matchup. Wang Cong shows enormous submission output (7.3 subs per 15, 100% TD accuracy, 7.07 SLpM with 59% accuracy and elite 76% striking defense) even if inflated by small-sample data, suggesting a very aggressive, finishing-oriented st...
FINAL: Jakub Wiklacz by SUB Guillotine Choke
Gafurov WWLL 385d out Wiklacz W 126d out last 5
Muin Gafurov last fought 385 days ago
W
vs Rinya Nakamura · U-DEC2025-01-18
W
vs Kyung Ho Kang · U-DEC2024-01-20
L
vs Said Nurmagomedov · SUB2023-10-21
L
vs John Castaneda · U-DEC2023-06-03
Jakub Wiklacz last fought 126 days ago
W
vs Patchy Mix · S-DEC2025-10-04
Claude MISS
Muin Gafurov
68%win confidence
KO/TKO 20%
Submission 15%
Decision 65%
This matchup heavily favors Gafurov due to Wiklacz's complete lack of UFC experience and recorded statistics. Gafurov comes off back-to-back unanimous decision wins and shows solid fundamentals with 68% takedown defense and moderate striking volume. Wiklacz having zero recorded strikes, takedowns, o...
GPT MISS
Muin Gafurov
71%win confidence
KO/TKO 24%
Submission 18%
Decision 58%
Gafurov has proven UFC-level experience with efficient output, solid offensive wrestling, and a positive striking differential, while Wiklacz is debuting with no UFC data, creating high uncertainty about his ability to handle UFC pace and physicality. Gafurov's takedown volume and accuracy, combined...
FINAL: Klaudia Sygula by U-DEC
Sygula W 231d out Cachoeira LWLLW 182d out last 5
Klaudia Sygula last fought 231 days ago
W
vs Irina Alekseeva · U-DEC2025-06-21
Priscila Cachoeira last fought 182 days ago
L
vs Joselyne Edwards · KO/TKO Punch2025-08-09
W
vs Josiane Nunes · KO/TKO Punch2025-03-15
L
vs Jasmine Jasudavicius · SUB2024-01-20
L
vs Miranda Maverick · SUB2023-07-29
W
vs Ariane da Silva · KO/TKO2022-08-13
Claude MISS
Priscila Cachoeira
62%win confidence
KO/TKO 55%
Submission 10%
Decision 35%
Despite Cachoeira's recent struggles (2-3 in last 5), she has significant UFC experience advantage over Sygula who has zero recorded UFC statistics. Cachoeira's 3.76 strikes per minute and proven knockout power (recent KO win in 2022) give her the edge against an opponent with no UFC track record. S...
GPT HIT
Klaudia Sygula
63%win confidence
KO/TKO 24%
Submission 6%
Decision 70%
Cachoeira is extremely hittable with a historically poor defensive profile (high strikes absorbed, negative strike differential) and heavy reliance on durability and brawling. Against a fresher, more technical newcomer like Sygula, who is likely to bring higher shot selection, cleaner mechanics, and...