August 15, 2026
UFC 330: Makhachev vs. Machado Garry
Card complete. Claude 5/12 (42%) · GPT 5/12 (42%)
All results
Both models agree 10 of 12 fights
Mansur Abdul-Malik over Dustin Stoltzfus
Both call KO/TKO
Claude 78%
GPT 74%
GPT 74%
Islam Makhachev over Ian Machado Garry
Both call Submission
Claude 75%
GPT 74%
GPT 74%
Myktybek Orolbai over Jeremiah Wells
Both call Decision
Claude 74%
GPT 74%
GPT 74%
Esteban Ribovics over Edson Barboza
Both call KO/TKO
Claude 74%
GPT 68%
GPT 68%
Joel Alvarez over Chidi Njokuani
Both call Submission
Claude 72%
GPT 64%
GPT 64%
Donte Johnson over Eric McConico
Both call Decision
Claude 67%
GPT 69%
GPT 69%
Vicente Luque over Tresean Gore
Claude 62%
GPT 72%
GPT 72%
Neil Magny over Ramiz Brahimaj
Both call Decision
Claude 61%
GPT 68%
GPT 68%
Kaue Fernandes over Jalin Turner
Both call Decision
Claude 60%
GPT 62%
GPT 62%
Gillian Robertson over Mackenzie Dern
Both call Decision
Claude 56%
GPT 58%
GPT 58%
Double locks: both at 75% or higher 0 fights
Nothing clears the 75% bar from both models. The genie is hedging tonight.
Build your own list 10 match
Mansur Abdul-Malik over Dustin Stoltzfus
Both call KO/TKO
Claude 78%
GPT 74%
GPT 74%
Islam Makhachev over Ian Machado Garry
Both call Submission
Claude 75%
GPT 74%
GPT 74%
Myktybek Orolbai over Jeremiah Wells
Both call Decision
Claude 74%
GPT 74%
GPT 74%
Esteban Ribovics over Edson Barboza
Both call KO/TKO
Claude 74%
GPT 68%
GPT 68%
Joel Alvarez over Chidi Njokuani
Both call Submission
Claude 72%
GPT 64%
GPT 64%
Donte Johnson over Eric McConico
Both call Decision
Claude 67%
GPT 69%
GPT 69%
Vicente Luque over Tresean Gore
Claude 62%
GPT 72%
GPT 72%
Neil Magny over Ramiz Brahimaj
Both call Decision
Claude 61%
GPT 68%
GPT 68%
Kaue Fernandes over Jalin Turner
Both call Decision
Claude 60%
GPT 62%
GPT 62%
Gillian Robertson over Mackenzie Dern
Both call Decision
Claude 56%
GPT 58%
GPT 58%
Win confidence is the model's probability that its pick wins: 55 to 64 is a shrug, 65 to 74 is confident, 75 and up is the model betting its reputation.
KO/TKO, Submission, Decision is how the model splits the ways the fight ends, out of 100.
Odds are the sportsbook moneyline with the bookmaker margin removed, so the two percentages sum to 100. When a model's confidence beats the market's implied number, that gap is the value.
Elo is an opponent adjusted rating built from every UFC fight since 1994. Click any Elo number on the card for the full explanation, including what the star means.
FINAL: Islam Makhachev by U-DEC
Islam Makhachev -335 (74.27937915742794%)
Ian Machado Garry +275 (25.72062084257206%)
fanduel line
Makhachev WWWWW 272d out Garry WWLWW 265d out last 5
Islam Makhachev last fought 272 days ago
W
vs Jack Della Maddalena · U-DEC2025-11-15
W
vs Renato Moicano · SUB D'Arce Choke2025-01-18
W
vs Dustin Poirier · SUB2024-01-01
W
vs Alexander Volkanovski · KO/TKO2023-10-21
W
vs Alexander Volkanovski · U-DEC2023-02-11
Ian Machado Garry last fought 265 days ago
W
vs Belal Muhammad · U-DEC2025-11-22
W
vs Carlos Prates · U-DEC2025-04-26
L
vs Shavkat Rakhmonov · U-DEC2024-12-07
W
vs Geoff Neal · S-DEC2024-02-17
W
vs Michael Page · U-DEC2024-01-27
Claude HIT
Islam Makhachev
75%win confidence
KO/TKO 12%
Submission 38%
Decision 50%
Makhachev already answered the welterweight size question by dominating Jack Della Maddalena over five rounds, and Garry presents a less dangerous version of that same problem. Garry's 80% takedown defense looks respectable on paper, but it has never been stress-tested by a chain wrestler of Makhach...
GPT HIT
Islam Makhachev
74%win confidence
KO/TKO 17%
Submission 45%
Decision 38%
Garry's four-inch reach advantage, movement and 4.78 significant strikes landed per minute give him a credible path at distance. However, Makhachev absorbs only 1.45 significant strikes per minute and combines elite defense with far superior takedown efficiency and submission offense. Garry's 80% ta...
FINAL: Mackenzie Dern by U-DEC
Mackenzie Dern -200 (64.11483253588516%)
Gillian Robertson +168 (35.88516746411483%)
fanduel line
Dern WWWLL 294d out Robertson WLWWL 469d out last 5
Mackenzie Dern last fought 294 days ago
W
vs Virna Jandiroba · U-DEC2025-10-25
W
vs Amanda Ribas · SUB Armbar2025-01-11
W
vs Loopy Godinez · U-DEC2024-02-24
L
vs Amanda Lemos · U-DEC2024-02-17
L
vs Jessica Andrade · KO/TKO2023-11-11
Gillian Robertson last fought 469 days ago, long layoff
W
vs Marina Rodriguez · KO/TKO Punches2025-05-03
L
vs win · 2024-11-09
W
vs Michelle Waterson-Gomez · U-DEC2024-01-27
W
vs Polyana Viana · KO/TKO2024-01-20
L
vs Tabatha Ricci · U-DEC2023-06-24
Claude MISS
Gillian Robertson
56%win confidence
KO/TKO 10%
Submission 25%
Decision 65%
This is the clearest market-vs-model tension on the card. The market prices Dern at 64%, the public at 77%, but Elo has this nearly even (52/48) - and the underlying data supports the Elo read. The common opponent thread is striking: Robertson knocked out Marina Rodriguez and just beat Amanda Lemos,...
GPT MISS
Gillian Robertson
58%win confidence
KO/TKO 10%
Submission 35%
Decision 55%
Robertson's superior takedown efficiency, positional wrestling, striking defense, and performance against the shared opponent give her more reliable paths to winning minutes. Dern can threaten submissions or reversals from almost any ground position, but her weak takedown accuracy and negative strik...
FINAL: Jalin Turner by KO/TKO Punches
Jalin Turner -116 (51.30072840790842%)
Kaue Fernandes -104 (48.69927159209156%)
fanduel line
Turner WLLWL 251d out Fernandes WWWL 343d out last 5
Jalin Turner last fought 251 days ago
W
vs Edson Barboza · KO/TKO Punches2025-12-06
L
vs Ignacio Bahamondes · SUB Triangle Choke2025-03-08
L
vs Renato Moicano · KO/TKO2024-04-13
W
vs Bobby Green · KO/TKO2023-12-02
L
vs Dan Hooker · S-DEC2023-07-08
Kaue Fernandes last fought 343 days ago
W
vs Harry Hardwick · KO/TKO Kick2025-09-06
W
vs Guram Kutateladze · U-DEC2025-03-22
W
vs Mohammad Yahya · KO/TKO2024-02-24
L
vs Marc Diakiese · S-DEC2023-11-04
Claude MISS
Kaue Fernandes
60%win confidence
KO/TKO 30%
Submission 8%
Decision 62%
The market has this a coin flip (-116/-104) while the public backs Turner 69/31 on name recognition and his Barboza KO - that 18-point gap is the tell, and I take the Fernandes side of it. Turner is the classic high-variance action fighter: 5.79 SLpM but a porous 41% striking defense and 4.54 SApM, ...
GPT MISS
Kaue Fernandes
62%win confidence
KO/TKO 37%
Submission 8%
Decision 55%
Turner is the more dangerous early finisher and owns meaningful reach, volume, and submission threats, but Fernandes' cleaner accuracy, superior defense, and much lower absorption rate favor him over an extended striking fight. Fernandes should use disciplined movement and kicks to manage Turner's r...
FINAL: Dustin Stoltzfus by SUB Rear Naked Choke
Mansur Abdul-Malik -770 (84.99482580200069%)
Dustin Stoltzfus +540 (15.00517419799931%)
fanduel line
Abdul-Malik WWL 251d out Stoltzfus LLLLW 336d out last 5
Mansur Abdul-Malik last fought 251 days ago
W
vs Antonio Trocoli · SUB Guillotine Choke2025-12-06
W
vs Nick Klein · KO/TKO Punches2025-02-22
L
vs win · 2024-11-09
Dustin Stoltzfus last fought 336 days ago
L
vs Kelvin Gastelum · U-DEC2025-09-13
L
vs Nursulton Ruziboev · U-DEC2025-05-17
L
vs win · 2024-11-02
L
vs Brunno Ferreira · KO/TKO2024-01-06
W
vs Punahele Soriano · SUB2023-12-02
Claude MISS
Mansur Abdul-Malik
78%win confidence
KO/TKO 48%
Submission 17%
Decision 35%
This is a rebound fight booked for Abdul-Malik after the Belgaroui knee KO, and Stoltzfus is a stylistically friendly opponent for that purpose. Stoltzfus is 2-8 in rated UFC bouts with a 46% takedown defense - the single most exploitable number in this matchup. His path to winning is grappling, but...
GPT MISS
Mansur Abdul-Malik
74%win confidence
KO/TKO 64%
Submission 12%
Decision 24%
Stoltzfus has the more active submission profile, but his 37% takedown accuracy must overcome Abdul-Malik's strong 83% takedown defense. Abdul-Malik should therefore dictate where the fight takes place and exploit Stoltzfus's porous 46% takedown defense if needed. Although Abdul-Malik absorbs 4.49 s...
FINAL: Esteban Ribovics by KO/TKO Punches
Edson Barboza +530 (15.246636771300452%)
Esteban Ribovics -750 (84.75336322869957%)
fanduel line
Barboza LLLWW 251d out Ribovics LLWWW 126d out last 5
Edson Barboza last fought 251 days ago
L
vs Jalin Turner · KO/TKO Punches2025-12-06
L
vs Drakkar Klose · U-DEC2025-08-16
L
vs Lerone Murphy · U-DEC2023-12-23
W
vs Sodiq Yusuff · U-DEC2023-10-14
W
vs Billy Quarantillo · KO/TKO2023-04-15
Esteban Ribovics last fought 126 days ago
L
vs Mateusz Gamrot · SUB Arm Triangle2026-04-11
L
vs Nasrat Haqparast · S-DEC2025-03-01
W
vs Daniel Zellhuber · S-DEC2024-03-30
W
vs Terrance McKinney · KO/TKO2023-12-16
W
vs Kamuela Kirk · U-DEC2023-07-08
Claude HIT
Esteban Ribovics
74%win confidence
KO/TKO 45%
Submission 5%
Decision 50%
There is a genuine signal conflict here worth naming: Elo makes Barboza a 54% favorite while the market has Ribovics at 85%. I side firmly with the market, because Elo is a lagging indicator that credits Barboza's 33-fight strength of schedule but cannot see the age cliff - he turns 40 before this b...
GPT HIT
Esteban Ribovics
68%win confidence
KO/TKO 54%
Submission 3%
Decision 43%
Barboza's kicking arsenal, reach, and counterstriking create substantial early danger, especially against an opponent absorbing 5.83 significant strikes per minute. However, Ribovics is the higher-output and more statistically efficient striker, and his sustained pressure should increasingly force B...
FINAL: Chidi Njokuani by U-DEC
Chidi Njokuani +240 (28.25464949928469%)
Joel Alvarez -295 (71.7453505007153%)
fanduel line
Njokuani LLWWW 174d out Alvarez LWWWW 98d out last 5
Chidi Njokuani last fought 174 days ago
L
vs Carlos Leal · U-DEC2026-02-21
L
vs Jake Matthews · SUB Rear Naked Choke2025-07-12
W
vs Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos · KO/TKO Knee2025-03-15
W
vs Jared Gooden · U-DEC2024-04-27
W
vs Rhys McKee · S-DEC2024-03-30
Joel Alvarez last fought 98 days ago
L
vs Yaroslav Amosov · SUB Arm Triangle2026-05-09
W
vs Vicente Luque · U-DEC2025-10-11
W
vs Drakkar Klose · KO/TKO Knee2024-12-14
W
vs Elves Brener · KO/TKO2024-02-24
W
vs Marc Diakiese · SUB2023-07-22
Claude MISS
Joel Alvarez
72%win confidence
KO/TKO 25%
Submission 30%
Decision 45%
This matchup is nearly a stylistic worst-case for Njokuani despite both men being listed as strikers. Njokuani's two-fight skid exposes the pattern: he was submitted in round one by Jake Matthews the moment the fight hit the floor, and outworked by Carlos Leal over 15 minutes. Alvarez, now a full-si...
GPT MISS
Joel Alvarez
64%win confidence
KO/TKO 31%
Submission 49%
Decision 20%
Njokuani is the cleaner statistical striker, landing 5.16 significant strikes per minute at 61% accuracy with a +1.84 differential. Alvarez, however, absorbs slightly less damage and has a major grappling edge, averaging 1.1 submissions per fight compared with Njokuani's 0.1. Njokuani's 75% takedown...
FINAL: Charles Johnson by SUB Twister
Charles Johnson -116 (51.5396797466127%)
Eduardo Chapolin -102 (48.46032025338729%)
fanduel line
Johnson LWLWW 202d out Chapolin last 5
Charles Johnson last fought 202 days ago
L
vs Alex Perez · KO/TKO Punch2026-01-24
W
vs Lone'er Kavanagh · KO/TKO Punch2025-08-23
L
vs Ramazan Temirov · U-DEC2025-03-01
W
vs Sumudaerji · U-DEC2024-04-27
W
vs Azat Maksum · U-DEC2024-02-03
Eduardo Chapolin no UFC fights on record
Claude MISS
Eduardo Chapolin
58%win confidence
KO/TKO 13%
Submission 17%
Decision 70%
This is the spot where I side with the market against the public. Tapology has Johnson at 77% purely on name recognition, but the sportsbooks price this a coin flip (52/48) - and the stylistic read actually tilts toward the debuting Brazilian. Johnson's losses form a clear template: he gets controll...
GPT HIT
Charles Johnson
64%win confidence
KO/TKO 21%
Submission 12%
Decision 67%
Chapolin's wrestling is the primary obstacle, but his low striking output gives Johnson clearer paths to win minutes whenever the fight remains standing. Johnson is the more proven and active striker, carrying a positive striking differential while landing nearly twice Chapolin's volume. Chapolin ca...
FINAL: Donte Johnson by KO/TKO Punch
Donte Johnson -310 (72.5752508361204%)
Eric McConico +250 (27.424749163879596%)
fanduel line
Johnson W 287d out McConico WLWL 112d out last 5
Donte Johnson last fought 287 days ago
W
vs Sedriques Dumas · SUB Guillotine Choke2025-11-01
Eric McConico last fought 112 days ago
W
vs Rodolfo Vieira · U-DEC2026-04-25
L
vs Baisangur Susurkaev · KO/TKO Punch2025-11-15
W
vs Cody Brundage · S-DEC2025-08-09
L
vs Nursulton Ruziboev · KO/TKO Punch2025-02-22
Claude HIT
Donte Johnson
67%win confidence
KO/TKO 20%
Submission 22%
Decision 58%
The rare fight with a direct common-opponent comparison: both men beat Cody Brundage by split decision, which tells us less about a gap than the market's -310 implies - and the Elo model agrees, giving Johnson only 53% on provisional data. The truth sits between. Johnson is 8-0 with genuinely well-r...
GPT HIT
Donte Johnson
69%win confidence
KO/TKO 25%
Submission 17%
Decision 58%
Johnson is the more efficient and defensively reliable fighter, landing slightly more while absorbing substantially less. His higher takedown output should also let him dictate where exchanges occur. McConico's reach and size advantages create risk, but his porous striking defense and negative diffe...
FINAL: Tresean Gore by U-DEC
Vicente Luque -102 (48.46032025338729%)
Tresean Gore -116 (51.5396797466127%)
fanduel line
Luque WLLWL 126d out Gore LLWLL 490d out last 5
Vicente Luque last fought 126 days ago
W
vs Kelvin Gastelum · SUB Anaconda Choke2026-04-11
L
vs Joel Alvarez · U-DEC2025-10-11
L
vs Kevin Holland · SUB Anaconda Choke2025-06-07
W
vs Themba Gorimbo · SUB Anaconda Choke2024-12-07
L
vs Joaquin Buckley · KO/TKO2024-03-30
Tresean Gore last fought 490 days ago, long layoff
L
vs Marco Tulio · KO/TKO Punch2025-04-12
L
vs win · 2024-11-09
W
vs Josh Fremd · SUB2022-10-29
L
vs Cody Brundage · KO/TKO2022-07-09
L
vs Bryan Battle · U-DEC2022-02-05
Claude MISS
Vicente Luque
62%win confidence
KO/TKO 22%
Submission 30%
Decision 48%
This is a rare card where market and public split, and I side against the market. The books make Gore a slight favorite (-116, 52% de-vigged), presumably pricing Luque's accumulated damage (5.24 SApM career, KO loss to Buckley, sub loss to Holland) and his move up to 185. But the opponent-adjusted E...
GPT MISS
Vicente Luque
72%win confidence
KO/TKO 50%
Submission 25%
Decision 25%
Luque is the more proven and dangerous offensive fighter, while Gore's severe negative striking differential and porous defense are poor fits against Luque's accurate boxing and finishing power. Gore can compete through takedowns and physical grappling, especially given Luque's 59% takedown defense,...
FINAL: Lucas Fernando by KO/TKO Knee
Rafael Tobias +240 (28.25464949928469%)
Lucas Fernando -295 (71.7453505007153%)
fanduel line
Claude HIT
Lucas Fernando
57%win confidence
KO/TKO 24%
Submission 22%
Decision 54%
The market is emphatic here (-295, 72%) and the public even more so (87%), but this line deserves skepticism rather than blind agreement. Fernando has not fought in 1,104 days - nearly triple the ~450-day threshold where ring rust becomes a material handicap - and his only data point on file is a de...
GPT MISS
Rafael Tobias
67%win confidence
KO/TKO 20%
Submission 50%
Decision 30%
Both fighters have negative striking differentials and poor striking defense, making sustained grappling exchanges likely. Fernando is the more accurate striker and has the reach advantage, but Tobias lands at a higher rate, has perfect recorded takedown defense, and faces an opponent with 0% takedo...
FINAL: Neil Magny by KO/TKO Punches
Neil Magny +130 (41.76257809930944%)
Ramiz Brahimaj -154 (58.23742190069056%)
fanduel line
Magny LWLWL 244d out Brahimaj LWLLW 174d out last 5
Neil Magny last fought 244 days ago
L
vs Yaroslav Amosov · SUB Anaconda Choke2025-12-13
W
vs Jake Matthews · SUB D'Arce Choke2025-09-27
L
vs Michael Morales · KO/TKO2024-03-16
W
vs Mike Malott · KO/TKO2024-01-20
L
vs Ian Machado Garry · U-DEC2023-08-19
Ramiz Brahimaj last fought 174 days ago
L
vs Punahele Soriano · U-DEC2026-02-21
W
vs Austin Vanderford · SUB Guillotine Choke2025-10-04
L
vs Mickey Gall · 2024-11-16
L
vs Themba Gorimbo · U-DEC2023-12-23
W
vs Micheal Gillmore · SUB2022-02-26
Claude HIT
Neil Magny
61%win confidence
KO/TKO 15%
Submission 18%
Decision 67%
This is the card's clearest market/model conflict and I take Magny's side against the -154 line on Brahimaj. Elo makes Magny a 68% favorite (1606 vs 1479, a 128-point gap) while the market has him a +130 dog - a 26-point disagreement that demands resolution. The market's case is age and the Amosov c...
GPT HIT
Neil Magny
68%win confidence
KO/TKO 17%
Submission 25%
Decision 58%
Magny's reach, higher output, superior striking differential, and clinch-wrestling experience should let him control most exchanges. Brahimaj has a meaningful submission path against Magny's 55% takedown defense, but his limited striking volume and defensive liabilities make sustained success less l...
FINAL: Jeremiah Wells by SUB Guillotine Choke
Jeremiah Wells +750 (11.304347826086955%)
Myktybek Orolbai -1200 (88.69565217391305%)
fanduel line
Wells WLLWW 287d out Orolbai WWWW 265d out last 5
Jeremiah Wells last fought 287 days ago
W
vs Themba Gorimbo · U-DEC2025-11-01
L
vs Max Griffin · S-DEC2024-02-10
L
vs Carlston Harris · SUB2023-08-05
W
vs Matthew Semelsberger · S-DEC2023-04-22
W
vs Court McGee · KO/TKO2022-06-18
Myktybek Orolbai last fought 265 days ago
W
vs Jack Hermansson · KO/TKO Punch2025-11-22
W
vs Tofiq Musayev · SUB Kimura2025-06-21
W
vs Elves Brener · U-DEC2023-12-09
W
vs Uros Medic · SUB2023-11-18
Claude MISS
Myktybek Orolbai
74%win confidence
KO/TKO 22%
Submission 18%
Decision 60%
This is a classic prospect-vs-veteran gatekeeper matchup, and the trajectories point in opposite directions. Orolbai is 28, unbeaten in the UFC (4-0 rated), riding a three-fight streak with genuinely impressive scalps - a first-round KO of Jack Hermansson, a kimura of Tofiq Musayev, and a decision o...
GPT MISS
Myktybek Orolbai
74%win confidence
KO/TKO 18%
Submission 24%
Decision 58%
Wells has credible early finishing threats, especially during chaotic grappling exchanges, but Orolbai is the more reliable minute winner. His substantially higher takedown output, superior takedown accuracy, and slightly better striking accuracy should allow him to dictate position and accumulate c...