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May 9, 2026

UFC 328: Chimaev vs. Strickland

UFC 328: Chimaev vs. Strickland poster
Card complete. GPT 2/4 (50%) All results
Win confidence is the model's probability that its pick wins: 55 to 64 is a shrug, 65 to 74 is confident, 75 and up is the model betting its reputation.
KO/TKO, Submission, Decision is how the model splits the ways the fight ends, out of 100.
Odds are the sportsbook moneyline with the bookmaker margin removed, so the two percentages sum to 100. When a model's confidence beats the market's implied number, that gap is the value.
Elo is an opponent adjusted rating built from every UFC fight since 1994. Click any Elo number on the card for the full explanation, including what the star means.
Khamzat ChimaevSean Strickland
Khamzat ChimaevAge: 32 vs Sean StricklandAge: 35
Middleweight
Main card
FINAL: Sean Strickland by S-DEC
Chimaev WWWWW 266d out Strickland WLLWW 76d out last 5
Khamzat Chimaev last fought 266 days ago
W vs Dricus Du Plessis · U-DEC2025-08-16
W vs Kamaru Usman · M-DEC2023-10-21
W vs Kevin Holland · SUB2022-09-10
W vs Gilbert Burns · U-DEC2022-04-09
W vs Li Jingliang · SUB2021-10-30
Sean Strickland last fought 76 days ago
W vs Anthony Hernandez · KO/TKO Punches2026-02-21
L vs Dricus Du Plessis · U-DEC2025-02-08
L vs Dricus Du Plessis · S-DEC2024-01-20
W vs Paulo Costa · S-DEC2024-01-01
W vs Israel Adesanya · U-DEC2023-09-09
GPT  MISS
Khamzat Chimaev
Khamzat Chimaev
by Decision
73%win confidence
KO/TKO 27% Submission 25% Decision 48%
Chimaev's elite wrestling volume (4.31 TDs per 15, 46% accuracy) combined with 100% takedown defense and high submission threat (2.8 subs per 15) gives him multiple paths to control rounds even if Strickland's jab and volume create problems on the feet. Strickland's 77% TDD is good but not historica...
Match details and charts
Joshua VanTatsuro Taira
Joshua VanAge: 24 vs Tatsuro TairaAge: 26
Flyweight
Main card
FINAL: Joshua Van by KO/TKO Punches
Van WWWWW 153d out Taira WLLWW 153d out last 5
Joshua Van last fought 153 days ago
W vs Alexandre Pantoja · KO/TKO2025-12-06
W vs Brandon Royval · U-DEC2025-06-28
W vs Bruno Silva · KO/TKO Punches2025-06-07
W vs Rei Tsuruya · U-DEC2025-03-08
W vs Cody Durden · U-DEC2024-12-07
Tatsuro Taira last fought 153 days ago
W vs Brandon Moreno · KO/TKO Punches2025-12-06
L vs Brandon Royval · S-DEC2024-04-27
L vs Brandon Royval · S-DEC2024-04-20
W vs Alex Perez · KO/TKO2024-01-13
W vs Carlos Hernandez · KO/TKO2023-12-09
GPT  MISS
Tatsuro Taira
Tatsuro Taira
by Submission
69%win confidence
KO/TKO 18% Submission 41% Decision 41%
Van's pace, volume, and takedown defense make him dangerous early, but his high strike absorption and defensive openings give Taira plenty of entries to clinch, chain wrestle, and create back-take/scramble scenarios. Taira's superior submission threat and top control, combined with Van's willingness...
Match details and charts
Alexander VolkovWaldo Cortes Acosta
Alexander VolkovAge: 37 vs Waldo Cortes AcostaAge: 34
Heavyweight
Main card
FINAL: Alexander Volkov by U-DEC
Volkov WLWWW 196d out Acosta WW 104d out last 5
Alexander Volkov last fought 196 days ago
W vs Jailton Almeida · S-DEC2025-10-25
L vs Ciryl Gane · S-DEC2024-12-07
W vs Sergei Pavlovich · U-DEC2024-01-20
W vs Tai Tuivasa · SUB2023-09-09
W vs Alexandr Romanov · KO/TKO2023-03-11
Waldo Cortes Acosta last fought 104 days ago
W vs Derrick Lewis · KO/TKO Punches2026-01-24
W vs Shamil Gaziev · KO/TKO Punch2025-11-22
GPT  HIT
Alexander Volkov
Alexander Volkov
by Decision
72%win confidence
KO/TKO 38% Submission 7% Decision 55%
Volkov brings a far deeper, more proven heavyweight resume with superior shot selection, accuracy, and five-round experience against elite competition. His 57% accuracy on solid volume, combined with better strike differential and more diverse offense (kicks, teeps, knees, and clinch work), should a...
Match details and charts
Sean BradyJoaquin Buckley
Sean BradyAge: 33 vs Joaquin BuckleyAge: 32
Welterweight
Main card
FINAL: Sean Brady by U-DEC
Brady LWWWL 174d out Buckley LWWWW 329d out last 5
Sean Brady last fought 174 days ago
L vs Michael Morales · KO/TKO Punches2025-11-15
W vs Leon Edwards · SUB Guillotine Choke2025-03-22
W vs Gilbert Burns · U-DEC2024-03-23
W vs Kelvin Gastelum · SUB2023-12-02
L vs Belal Muhammad · KO/TKO2022-10-22
Joaquin Buckley last fought 329 days ago
L vs Kamaru Usman · U-DEC2025-06-14
W vs Colby Covington · KO/TKO2024-12-14
W vs Stephen Thompson · KO/TKO2024-04-13
W vs Vicente Luque · KO/TKO2024-03-30
W vs Nursulton Ruziboev · U-DEC2023-12-16
GPT  HIT
Sean Brady
Sean Brady
by Decision
72%win confidence
KO/TKO 15% Submission 23% Decision 62%
Brady's superior wrestling volume (3.49 TD avg at 52% with 85% TD defense) and tighter defensive metrics (60% striking defense vs Buckley's 57% and slightly lower SApM) point to sustained top control and clinch time neutralizing Buckley's explosive but less accurate striking (36% accuracy). Buckley'...
Match details and charts
King GreenJeremy Stephens
King GreenAge: 39 vs Jeremy StephensAge: 39
Lightweight
Prelims
FINAL: King Green by SUB Rear Naked Choke
Green LL 426d out Stephens LLLLL 371d out last 5
King Green last fought 426 days ago
L vs Mauricio Ruffy · KO/TKO Kick2025-03-08
L vs Paddy Pimblett · SUB2024-02-17
Jeremy Stephens last fought 371 days ago
L vs Mason Jones · U-DEC2025-05-03
L vs Mateusz Gamrot · SUB2021-07-17
L vs Calvin Kattar · KO/TKO2020-05-09
L vs Yair Rodriguez · U-DEC2019-10-18
L vs Yair Rodriguez · CNC2019-09-21
Predictions post here as soon as the models run this card.
Match details and charts
Ateba GautierOzzy Diaz
Ateba GautierAge: 24 vs Ozzy DiazAge: 35
Middleweight
Prelims
FINAL: Ateba Gautier by KO/TKO Punch
Gautier WWW 104d out Diaz WL 426d out last 5
Ateba Gautier last fought 104 days ago
W vs Andrey Pulyaev · U-DEC2026-01-24
W vs Robert Valentin · KO/TKO Punch2025-07-19
W vs Jose Daniel Medina · KO/TKO Knee2025-03-29
Ozzy Diaz last fought 426 days ago
W vs Djorden Santos · U-DEC2025-03-08
L vs Zhang Mingyang · 2024-11-23
Predictions post here as soon as the models run this card.
Match details and charts
Joel AlvarezYaroslav Amosov
Joel AlvarezAge: 33 vs Yaroslav AmosovAge: 32
Welterweight
Prelims
FINAL: Yaroslav Amosov by SUB Arm Triangle
Alvarez WWWWL 210d out Amosov W 146d out last 5
Joel Alvarez last fought 210 days ago
W vs Vicente Luque · U-DEC2025-10-11
W vs Drakkar Klose · KO/TKO Knee2024-12-14
W vs Elves Brener · KO/TKO2024-02-24
W vs Marc Diakiese · SUB2023-07-22
L vs Arman Tsarukyan · KO/TKO2022-02-26
Yaroslav Amosov last fought 146 days ago
W vs Neil Magny · SUB Anaconda Choke2025-12-13
Predictions post here as soon as the models run this card.
Match details and charts
Grant DawsonMateusz Rebecki
Grant DawsonAge: 32 vs Mateusz RebeckiAge: 33
Lightweight
Prelims
FINAL: Grant Dawson by SUB Rear Naked Choke
Dawson LWWWL 153d out Rebecki LLWWW 196d out last 5
Grant Dawson last fought 153 days ago
L vs Manuel Torres · KO/TKO Punch2025-12-06
W vs Diego Ferreira · U-DEC2025-01-18
W vs Rafa Garcia · KO/TKO2024-04-27
W vs Joe Solecki · U-DEC2024-01-01
L vs Bobby Green · KO/TKO2023-10-07
Mateusz Rebecki last fought 196 days ago
L vs Ludovit Klein · M-DEC2025-10-25
L vs Diego Ferreira · KO/TKO2023-12-16
W vs Roosevelt Roberts · SUB2023-11-11
W vs Loik Radzhabov · KO/TKO2023-06-24
W vs Nick Fiore · U-DEC2023-01-14
Predictions post here as soon as the models run this card.
Match details and charts
Jim MillerJared Gordon
Jim MillerAge: 42 vs Jared GordonAge: 37
Lightweight
Prelims
FINAL: Jim Miller by SUB Guillotine Choke
Miller LWLWW 392d out Gordon LWLWL 238d out last 5
Jim Miller last fought 392 days ago
L vs Chase Hooper · U-DEC2025-04-12
W vs Damon Jackson · 2024-11-16
L vs Bobby Green · U-DEC2024-04-13
W vs Gabriel Benitez · SUB2024-01-13
W vs Jesse Butler · KO/TKO2023-06-03
Jared Gordon last fought 238 days ago
L vs Rafa Garcia · KO/TKO Elbows2025-09-13
W vs Thiago Moises · KO/TKO Punch2025-05-17
L vs Nasrat Haqparast · S-DEC2024-01-20
W vs Mark Madsen · KO/TKO2023-11-11
L vs Bobby Green · CNC2023-04-22
Predictions post here as soon as the models run this card.
Match details and charts
Roman KopylovMarco Tulio
Roman KopylovAge: 35 vs Marco TulioAge: 31
Middleweight
Prelims
FINAL: Roman Kopylov by U-DEC
Kopylov LLWLW 174d out Tulio LWW 181d out last 5
Roman Kopylov last fought 174 days ago
L vs Gregory Rodrigues · U-DEC2025-11-15
L vs Paulo Costa · U-DEC2025-07-19
W vs Chris Curtis · KO/TKO Kick2025-01-11
L vs Anthony Hernandez · SUB2024-02-17
W vs Cesar Almeida · S-DEC2024-01-01
Marco Tulio last fought 181 days ago
L vs Christian Leroy Duncan · KO/TKO Punch2025-11-08
W vs Tresean Gore · KO/TKO Punch2025-04-12
W vs Ihor Potieria · KO/TKO Punches2025-01-11
Predictions post here as soon as the models run this card.
Match details and charts
Pat SabatiniWilliam Gomis
Pat SabatiniAge: 35 vs William GomisAge: 28
Featherweight
Prelims
FINAL: Pat Sabatini by U-DEC
Sabatini WWWLW 174d out Gomis WLWWW 245d out last 5
Pat Sabatini last fought 174 days ago
W vs Chepe Mariscal · U-DEC2025-11-15
W vs Joanderson Brito · U-DEC2025-04-05
W vs Jonathan Pearce · SUB2024-04-27
L vs Diego Lopes · KO/TKO2023-11-11
W vs Lucas Almeida · SUB2023-06-17
William Gomis last fought 245 days ago
W vs Robert Ruchala · U-DEC2025-09-06
L vs Hyder Amil · S-DEC2025-03-01
W vs Joanderson Brito · S-DEC2024-04-06
W vs Yanis Ghemmouri · KO/TKO2023-09-02
W vs Francis Marshall · S-DEC2023-04-22
Predictions post here as soon as the models run this card.
Match details and charts
Baisangur SusurkaevDjorden Santos
Baisangur SusurkaevAge: 25 vs Djorden SantosAge: 28
Middleweight
Prelims
FINAL: Baisangur Susurkaev by SUB Rear Naked Choke
Susurkaev WW 174d out Santos WL 203d out last 5
Baisangur Susurkaev last fought 174 days ago
W vs Eric McConico · KO/TKO Punch2025-11-15
W vs Eric Nolan · SUB Rear Naked Choke2025-08-16
Djorden Santos last fought 203 days ago
W vs Danny Barlow · U-DEC2025-10-18
L vs Ozzy Diaz · U-DEC2025-03-08
Predictions post here as soon as the models run this card.
Match details and charts
Clayton CarpenterJose Ochoa
Clayton CarpenterAge: 29 vs Jose OchoaAge: 25
Flyweight
Prelims
FINAL: Jose Ochoa by U-DEC
Carpenter LLWW 210d out Ochoa WL 329d out last 5
Clayton Carpenter last fought 210 days ago
L vs Jafel Filho · SUB Kimura2025-10-11
L vs Tagir Ulanbekov · U-DEC2025-01-18
W vs Lucas Rocha · SUB2024-04-27
W vs Juancamilo Ronderos · SUB2023-02-18
Jose Ochoa last fought 329 days ago
W vs Cody Durden · KO/TKO Punch2025-06-14
L vs Lone'er Kavanagh · 2024-11-23
Predictions post here as soon as the models run this card.
Match details and charts