April 11, 2026
UFC 327: Prochazka vs. Ulberg
Card complete. GPT 7/10 (70%)
All results
Win confidence is the model's probability that its pick wins: 55 to 64 is a shrug, 65 to 74 is confident, 75 and up is the model betting its reputation.
KO/TKO, Submission, Decision is how the model splits the ways the fight ends, out of 100.
Odds are the sportsbook moneyline with the bookmaker margin removed, so the two percentages sum to 100. When a model's confidence beats the market's implied number, that gap is the value.
Elo is an opponent adjusted rating built from every UFC fight since 1994. Click any Elo number on the card for the full explanation, including what the star means.
FINAL: Carlos Ulberg by KO/TKO Punch
Prochazka WWWLL 189d out Ulberg WWLWW 196d out last 5
Jiri Prochazka last fought 189 days ago
W
vs Khalil Rountree Jr. · KO/TKO Punches2025-10-04
W
vs Jamahal Hill · KO/TKO Punches2025-01-18
W
vs Aleksandar Rakic · KO/TKO2024-04-13
L
vs Alex Pereira · KO/TKO2024-01-27
L
vs Alex Pereira · KO/TKO2023-11-11
Carlos Ulberg last fought 196 days ago
W
vs Dominick Reyes · KO/TKO Punches2025-09-27
W
vs Jan Blachowicz · U-DEC2025-03-22
L
vs Volkan Oezdemir · 2024-11-23
W
vs Alonzo Menifield · KO/TKO2023-12-16
W
vs Da Woon Jung · SUB2023-09-09
GPT HIT
Carlos Ulberg
72%win confidence
KO/TKO 63%
Submission 7%
Decision 30%
Ulberg's statistical profile points to a much cleaner, more defensively sound striking game and better overall efficiency. He lands significantly more strikes per minute (7.41 vs 5.38) with higher accuracy (59% vs 55%) while absorbing far fewer (3.6 vs 5.59), yielding a large positive differential (...
FINAL: Paulo Costa by KO/TKO Kick
Murzakanov WWLWW 168d out Costa WLLWL 266d out last 5
Azamat Murzakanov last fought 168 days ago
W
vs Aleksandar Rakic · KO/TKO Punch2025-10-25
W
vs Brendson Ribeiro · KO/TKO Punches2025-06-07
L
vs Nikita Krylov · 2024-11-16
W
vs Alonzo Menifield · KO/TKO2024-02-24
W
vs Dustin Jacoby · U-DEC2023-04-15
Paulo Costa last fought 266 days ago
W
vs Roman Kopylov · U-DEC2025-07-19
L
vs Robert Whittaker · U-DEC2024-02-17
L
vs Sean Strickland · S-DEC2024-01-01
W
vs Luke Rockhold · U-DEC2022-08-20
L
vs Marvin Vettori · U-DEC2021-10-23
GPT MISS
Azamat Murzakanov
67%win confidence
KO/TKO 58%
Submission 4%
Decision 38%
Murzakanov is the more efficient, defensively sound striker with a positive differential (4.72 SLpM vs 2.90 SApM) and 61% striking defense, compared to Costa's negative differential (6.22 SLpM vs 6.56 SApM) and porous 49% defense. Costa's style relies on high-pressure, high-output exchanges where he...
FINAL: Josh Hokit by U-DEC
Blaydes WWLLW 294d out Hokit WW 76d out last 5
Curtis Blaydes last fought 294 days ago
W
vs Rizvan Kuniev · S-DEC2025-06-21
W
vs Jailton Almeida · KO/TKO2024-03-09
L
vs Tom Aspinall · KO/TKO2024-02-17
L
vs Sergei Pavlovich · KO/TKO2023-04-22
W
vs Tom Aspinall · KO/TKO2022-07-23
Josh Hokit last fought 76 days ago
W
vs Denzel Freeman · KO/TKO Punches2026-01-24
W
vs Max Gimenis · KO/TKO Punches2025-11-08
GPT MISS
Curtis Blaydes
68%win confidence
KO/TKO 30%
Submission 7%
Decision 63%
This is a rare elite-wrestler vs elite-wrestler heavyweight matchup. Blaydes brings proven 5-round UFC experience, top-10 heavyweight wins, and a well-developed striking game behind his wrestling base. Hokit's gaudy stats (14.75 TDs per fight, +3.28 strike differential, 77% accuracy) are inflated by...
FINAL: Dominick Reyes by S-DEC
Reyes LWWWL 196d out Walker WLLLW 231d out last 5
Dominick Reyes last fought 196 days ago
L
vs Carlos Ulberg · KO/TKO Punches2025-09-27
W
vs Nikita Krylov · KO/TKO Punch2025-04-12
W
vs Anthony Smith · KO/TKO Punches2024-12-07
W
vs Dustin Jacoby · KO/TKO2024-01-06
L
vs Ryan Spann · KO/TKO2022-11-12
Johnny Walker last fought 231 days ago
W
vs Zhang Mingyang · KO/TKO Punches2025-08-23
L
vs Volkan Oezdemir · KO/TKO2024-01-20
L
vs Magomed Ankalaev · KO/TKO2024-01-13
L
vs Magomed Ankalaev · CNC2023-10-21
W
vs Anthony Smith · U-DEC2023-05-13
GPT HIT
Dominick Reyes
63%win confidence
KO/TKO 54%
Submission 6%
Decision 40%
Reyes is the cleaner, more structured striker with higher output and better defensive metrics, and his 80% takedown defense limits Walker's opportunistic wrestling/grappling. Walker is dangerous and explosive early, but his defensive lapses, lower strike differential, and historical inconsistency ag...
FINAL: Cub Swanson by KO/TKO Punch
Swanson WLWLW 482d out Landwehr LLWLW 273d out last 5
Cub Swanson last fought 482 days ago, long layoff
W
vs Billy Quarantillo · KO/TKO Punch2024-12-14
L
vs Andre Fili · S-DEC2024-01-27
W
vs Hakeem Dawodu · U-DEC2023-08-12
L
vs Jonathan Martinez · KO/TKO2022-10-15
W
vs Darren Elkins · KO/TKO2021-12-18
Nate Landwehr last fought 273 days ago
L
vs Morgan Charriere · KO/TKO Punch2025-07-12
L
vs Dooho Choi · KO/TKO Elbows2024-12-07
W
vs Jamall Emmers · KO/TKO2024-03-30
L
vs Dan Ige · U-DEC2023-06-10
W
vs Austin Lingo · SUB2023-03-25
GPT MISS
Nate Landwehr
68%win confidence
KO/TKO 32%
Submission 13%
Decision 55%
Landwehr's higher output, better recent durability, and strong takedown defense should allow him to pressure Swanson over three rounds. Swanson is the cleaner technician with superior shot selection and counters, but his age, accumulated damage, and declining speed make it harder to win a sustained ...
Freire Pico L 238d out last 5
Patricio Freire no UFC fights on record
Aaron Pico last fought 238 days ago
L
vs Lerone Murphy · KO/TKO Spinning Back Elbow2025-08-16
GPT
Aaron Pico
65%win confidence
KO/TKO 48%
Submission 12%
Decision 40%
Despite Freire's experience and elite takedown defense, Pico's youth, explosive wrestling, and increasingly sharp boxing create a strong durability and athleticism edge at this stage. Over three rounds, Pico's pressure, power combinations, and top control threats should force high-paced exchanges wh...
FINAL: Kevin Holland by U-DEC
Holland LLWWL 175d out Brown LWLWW 153d out last 5
Kevin Holland last fought 175 days ago
L
vs Mike Malott · U-DEC2025-10-18
L
vs Daniel Rodriguez · U-DEC2025-07-19
W
vs Vicente Luque · SUB Anaconda Choke2025-06-07
W
vs Gunnar Nelson · U-DEC2025-03-22
L
vs Reinier de Ridder · SUB Rear Naked Choke2025-01-18
Randy Brown last fought 153 days ago
L
vs Gabriel Bonfim · KO/TKO Knee2025-11-08
W
vs Nicolas Dalby · KO/TKO Punch2025-04-26
L
vs Bryan Battle · S-DEC2024-12-07
W
vs Muslim Salikhov · KO/TKO2024-02-03
W
vs Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos · U-DEC2024-01-01
GPT HIT
Kevin Holland
63%win confidence
KO/TKO 52%
Submission 11%
Decision 37%
Both are tall, long welterweights with similar volume and accuracy, but Holland's sharper countering, proven power against higher-tier opposition, and opportunistic front-choke game give him more finishing upside. Brown's improved defense and 3-inch reach edge help him early at range, but his tenden...
FINAL: Mateusz Gamrot by SUB Arm Triangle
Gamrot LWLWW 182d out Ribovics LWWWL 405d out last 5
Mateusz Gamrot last fought 182 days ago
L
vs Charles Oliveira · SUB Rear Naked Choke2025-10-11
W
vs Ludovit Klein · U-DEC2025-05-31
L
vs Dan Hooker · S-DEC2024-03-09
W
vs Rafael Dos Anjos · U-DEC2024-03-09
W
vs Rafael Fiziev · KO/TKO2023-09-23
Esteban Ribovics last fought 405 days ago
L
vs Nasrat Haqparast · S-DEC2025-03-01
W
vs Daniel Zellhuber · S-DEC2024-03-30
W
vs Terrance McKinney · KO/TKO2023-12-16
W
vs Kamuela Kirk · U-DEC2023-07-08
L
vs Loik Radzhabov · U-DEC2023-03-04
GPT HIT
Mateusz Gamrot
78%win confidence
KO/TKO 18%
Submission 22%
Decision 60%
Gamrot's elite wrestling volume (5.25 TDs per 15, 35% accuracy) combined with 90% takedown defense and strong top control historically gives him a clear path to neutralize Ribovics' high-pace striking. Ribovics throws far more (7.53 SLpM, +2.58 differential) but relies on extended striking exchanges...
FINAL: Tatiana Suarez by SUB Rear Naked Choke
Suarez WLWWW 210d out Godinez WWLLW 238d out last 5
Tatiana Suarez last fought 210 days ago
W
vs Amanda Lemos · U-DEC2025-09-13
L
vs Zhang Weili · U-DEC2025-02-08
W
vs Jessica Andrade · SUB2023-08-05
W
vs Montana De La Rosa · SUB2023-02-25
W
vs Nina Nunes · U-DEC2019-06-08
Loopy Godinez last fought 238 days ago
W
vs Jessica Andrade · U-DEC2025-08-16
W
vs Julia Polastri · U-DEC2025-03-29
L
vs Virna Jandiroba · U-DEC2024-03-30
L
vs Mackenzie Dern · U-DEC2024-02-24
W
vs Tabatha Ricci · S-DEC2023-11-11
GPT HIT
Tatiana Suarez
79%win confidence
KO/TKO 14%
Submission 26%
Decision 60%
Suarez's elite wrestling and top control (6.2 TDs per 15, 61% accuracy, 100% TD defense) combined with a huge defensive striking edge (1.38 SApM vs Godinez's 3.87) point to her dictating where the fight takes place. Godinez is a strong, well-rounded grappler with solid 81% TDD and higher striking de...
Padilla WWWW 153d out Mederos WWW 308d out last 5
Chris Padilla last fought 153 days ago
W
vs Ismael Bonfim · KO/TKO Punches2025-11-08
W
vs Jai Herbert · S-DEC2025-03-22
W
vs James Llontop · SUB2024-04-27
W
vs Rongzhu · KO/TKO2024-03-23
MarQuel Mederos last fought 308 days ago
W
vs Mark Choinski · U-DEC2025-06-07
W
vs Austin Hubbard · S-DEC2025-03-29
W
vs Landon Quinones · U-DEC2024-02-03
GPT
MarQuel Mederos
68%win confidence
KO/TKO 27%
Submission 6%
Decision 67%
Padilla shows strong offensive numbers with high striking and takedown accuracy, but his 0% takedown defense and low striking defense are major red flags against a cleaner, more defensively sound striker like Mederos. Mederos has the reach edge, better strike differential, and 90% takedown defense, ...
FINAL: Vicente Luque by SUB Anaconda Choke
Gastelum WLWLW 210d out Luque LLWLW 182d out last 5
Kelvin Gastelum last fought 210 days ago
W
vs Dustin Stoltzfus · U-DEC2025-09-13
L
vs Joe Pyfer · U-DEC2025-06-07
W
vs Daniel Rodriguez · U-DEC2024-01-20
L
vs Sean Brady · SUB2023-12-02
W
vs Chris Curtis · U-DEC2023-04-08
Vicente Luque last fought 182 days ago
L
vs Joel Alvarez · U-DEC2025-10-11
L
vs Kevin Holland · SUB Anaconda Choke2025-06-07
W
vs Themba Gorimbo · SUB Anaconda Choke2024-12-07
L
vs Joaquin Buckley · KO/TKO2024-03-30
W
vs Rafael Dos Anjos · U-DEC2023-08-12
GPT HIT
Vicente Luque
68%win confidence
KO/TKO 32%
Submission 13%
Decision 55%
Luque's higher strike volume, superior accuracy, and stronger submission threat give him more paths to win over three rounds. Gastelum is historically durable with solid boxing defense and wrestling, which should let him survive Luque's power and opportunistic submissions, but his lower output and l...
FINAL: Charles Radtke by U-DEC
Radtke WLLWL 161d out Prado LLLWL 266d out last 5
Charles Radtke last fought 161 days ago
W
vs Daniel Frunza · SUB Rear Naked Choke2025-11-01
L
vs Mike Malott · KO/TKO Punch2025-05-10
L
vs win · 2024-11-09
W
vs Gilbert Urbina · KO/TKO2024-02-03
L
vs Carlos Prates · KO/TKO2024-01-06
Francisco Prado last fought 266 days ago
L
vs Nikolay Veretennikov · S-DEC2025-07-19
L
vs Jake Matthews · U-DEC2025-02-08
L
vs Daniel Zellhuber · U-DEC2024-02-24
W
vs Ottman Azaitar · KO/TKO2023-07-15
L
vs Jamie Mullarkey · U-DEC2023-02-11
GPT HIT
Charles Radtke
69%win confidence
KO/TKO 27%
Submission 6%
Decision 67%
Radtke is the more defensively sound, process-driven striker with a positive strike differential and 56% striking defense versus Prado's -1.08 differential and higher damage intake. Prado throws more volume and has greater finishing upside, but his 25% takedown defense and porous defensive metrics s...