March 7, 2026
UFC 326: Holloway vs. Oliveira 2
Card complete. GPT 6/10 (60%) · Claude 5/10 (50%)
All results
Both models agree 6 of 12 fights
Caio Borralho over Reinier de Ridder
Claude 82%
GPT 63%
GPT 63%
Alberto Montes over Ricky Turcios
Both call Submission
Claude 72%
GPT 72%
GPT 72%
Max Holloway over Charles Oliveira
Both call Decision
Claude 68%
GPT 72%
GPT 72%
Gregory Rodrigues over Brunno Ferreira
Both call KO/TKO
Claude 72%
GPT 68%
GPT 68%
Xiao Long over Cody Garbrandt
Both call Decision
Claude 63%
GPT 68%
GPT 68%
Gaston Bolanos over JooSang Yoo
Claude 62%
GPT 68%
GPT 68%
Double locks: both at 75% or higher 0 fights
Nothing clears the 75% bar from both models. The genie is hedging tonight.
Build your own list 6 match
Caio Borralho over Reinier de Ridder
Claude 82%
GPT 63%
GPT 63%
Alberto Montes over Ricky Turcios
Both call Submission
Claude 72%
GPT 72%
GPT 72%
Max Holloway over Charles Oliveira
Both call Decision
Claude 68%
GPT 72%
GPT 72%
Gregory Rodrigues over Brunno Ferreira
Both call KO/TKO
Claude 72%
GPT 68%
GPT 68%
Xiao Long over Cody Garbrandt
Both call Decision
Claude 63%
GPT 68%
GPT 68%
Gaston Bolanos over JooSang Yoo
Claude 62%
GPT 68%
GPT 68%
Win confidence is the model's probability that its pick wins: 55 to 64 is a shrug, 65 to 74 is confident, 75 and up is the model betting its reputation.
KO/TKO, Submission, Decision is how the model splits the ways the fight ends, out of 100.
Odds are the sportsbook moneyline with the bookmaker margin removed, so the two percentages sum to 100. When a model's confidence beats the market's implied number, that gap is the value.
Elo is an opponent adjusted rating built from every UFC fight since 1994. Click any Elo number on the card for the full explanation, including what the star means.
FINAL: Charles Oliveira by U-DEC
Holloway WWWWL 231d out Oliveira WLWLW 147d out last 5
Max Holloway last fought 231 days ago
W
vs Dustin Poirier · U-DEC2025-07-19
W
vs Justin Gaethje · KO/TKO2024-04-13
W
vs Chan Sung Jung · KO/TKO2023-08-26
W
vs Arnold Allen · U-DEC2023-04-15
L
vs Alexander Volkanovski · U-DEC2022-07-02
Charles Oliveira last fought 147 days ago
W
vs Mateusz Gamrot · SUB Rear Naked Choke2025-10-11
L
vs Ilia Topuria · KO/TKO Punch2025-06-28
W
vs Michael Chandler · 2024-11-16
L
vs Arman Tsarukyan · S-DEC2024-04-13
W
vs Beneil Dariush · KO/TKO2023-06-10
Claude MISS
Max Holloway
68%win confidence
KO/TKO 25%
Submission 7%
Decision 68%
Holloway's elite volume striking (7.17 SLPM vs 3.4), superior striking defense (59% vs 49%), and exceptional takedown defense (84%) create a nightmare matchup for Oliveira. Max's 5-inch reach disadvantage is mitigated by his footwork and pressure fighting style. Their common opponent analysis heavil...
GPT MISS
Max Holloway
72%win confidence
KO/TKO 32%
Submission 6%
Decision 62%
Holloway's historically elite volume (7.17 SLpM) and durability, combined with superior strike differential and takedown defense (84%), make it likely he keeps the fight standing at a high pace where Oliveira's lower output and more porous defense (49% StrDef, 3.21 SApM) are exposed over five rounds...
FINAL: Caio Borralho by U-DEC
Borralho LWWWW 182d out Ridder LWWL 140d out last 5
Caio Borralho last fought 182 days ago
L
vs Nassourdine Imavov · U-DEC2025-09-06
W
vs Jared Cannonier · U-DEC2024-03-16
W
vs Paul Craig · KO/TKO2023-12-09
W
vs Abus Magomedov · U-DEC2023-11-04
W
vs Michal Oleksiejczuk · SUB2023-04-29
Reinier de Ridder last fought 140 days ago
L
vs Brendan Allen · KO/TKO2025-10-18
W
vs Bo Nickal · KO/TKO Knee2025-05-03
W
vs Kevin Holland · SUB Rear Naked Choke2025-01-18
L
vs win · 2024-11-09
Claude HIT
Caio Borralho
82%win confidence
KO/TKO 65%
Submission 10%
Decision 25%
Borralho enters with massive advantages across all metrics against a UFC debutant. His 100% UFC win rate, recent KO victories, and complete striking dominance (3.61 SLPM, 60% accuracy, 62% defense) face de Ridder who has zero UFC statistics and is coming off a loss. Borralho's southpaw stance, 75-in...
GPT HIT
Caio Borralho
63%win confidence
KO/TKO 18%
Submission 19%
Decision 63%
Borralho has proven, efficient UFC metrics with high striking and takedown accuracy plus strong defensive numbers, which should allow him to control range and dictate where the fight takes place. De Ridder's elite grappling background from ONE makes him dangerous on the mat, but entering the UFC wit...
FINAL: Raul Rosas Jr. by U-DEC
Font LWWLL 175d out Jr. WWWWL 343d out last 5
Rob Font last fought 175 days ago
L
vs David Martinez · U-DEC2025-09-13
W
vs Jean Matsumoto · S-DEC2025-02-22
W
vs Kyler Phillips · U-DEC2024-04-27
L
vs Deiveson Figueiredo · U-DEC2023-12-02
L
vs Cory Sandhagen · U-DEC2023-08-05
Raul Rosas Jr. last fought 343 days ago
W
vs Vince Morales · U-DEC2025-03-29
W
vs Aoriqileng · U-DEC2024-03-30
W
vs Ricky Turcios · SUB2024-01-06
W
vs Terrence Mitchell · KO/TKO2023-09-16
L
vs Christian Rodriguez · U-DEC2023-04-08
Claude HIT
Raul Rosas Jr.
71%win confidence
KO/TKO 15%
Submission 55%
Decision 30%
This classic striker vs grappler matchup heavily favors Rosas Jr.'s elite wrestling (4.02 takedowns per fight) against Font's poor 44% takedown defense. Font's striking volume advantage (5.44 vs 1.55 SLPM) becomes irrelevant once Rosas secures takedowns. The 17-year age gap and Rosas's 85.7% win rat...
GPT MISS
Rob Font
68%win confidence
KO/TKO 30%
Submission 7%
Decision 63%
Font's elite jab, high-volume, accurate boxing (5.44 SLpM, +1.86 differential) and vast experience against top bantamweights should allow him to punish Rosas' predictable entries and extended exchanges over three rounds. Rosas' heavy grappling approach (4.02 TD avg, 1.3 subs per 15) is dangerous ear...
FINAL: Drew Dober by KO/TKO Punch
Dober WLLLW 140d out Johnson WWWLW 231d out last 5
Drew Dober last fought 140 days ago
W
vs Kyle Prepolec · KO/TKO Punches2025-10-18
L
vs Manuel Torres · KO/TKO Punches2025-03-29
L
vs Jean Silva · KO/TKO2024-02-03
L
vs Renato Moicano · U-DEC2024-02-03
W
vs Ricky Glenn · KO/TKO2023-10-07
Michael Johnson last fought 231 days ago
W
vs Daniel Zellhuber · U-DEC2025-07-19
W
vs Ottman Azaitar · KO/TKO Punch2024-12-14
W
vs Darrius Flowers · U-DEC2024-02-10
L
vs Diego Ferreira · KO/TKO2023-05-20
W
vs Marc Diakiese · U-DEC2022-12-03
Claude MISS
Michael Johnson
62%win confidence
KO/TKO 25%
Submission 5%
Decision 70%
This is a classic striker vs striker matchup between two southpaws with similar physical dimensions. Johnson holds key advantages in takedown defense (81% vs 56%) and defensive striking (57% vs 51%). Dober is on a concerning 3-fight losing streak with 2 recent KO losses, suggesting declining durabil...
GPT HIT
Drew Dober
69%win confidence
KO/TKO 58%
Submission 4%
Decision 38%
Both are high-volume southpaw strikers, but Dober carries significantly more consistent knockout power and is more willing to bite down and trade in the pocket. Johnson has the cleaner boxing and better defensive metrics (higher strike differential, better strike and takedown defense), yet his histo...
FINAL: Gregory Rodrigues by KO/TKO Punch
Rodrigues WWLWW 112d out Ferreira WWWWW 91d out last 5
Gregory Rodrigues last fought 112 days ago
W
vs Roman Kopylov · U-DEC2025-11-15
W
vs Jack Hermansson · KO/TKO Punch2025-06-28
L
vs Jared Cannonier · KO/TKO Punches2025-02-15
W
vs Christian Leroy Duncan · U-DEC2024-02-17
W
vs Brad Tavares · KO/TKO2024-02-10
Brunno Ferreira last fought 91 days ago
W
vs Marvin Vettori · U-DEC2025-12-06
W
vs Jackson McVey · SUB Armbar2025-07-19
W
vs Armen Petrosyan · SUB Armbar2025-03-08
W
vs Phil Hawes · KO/TKO2024-01-13
W
vs Dustin Stoltzfus · KO/TKO2024-01-06
Claude HIT
Gregory Rodrigues
72%win confidence
KO/TKO 55%
Submission 10%
Decision 35%
Rodrigues holds significant physical advantages with a 5-inch height and 3-inch reach advantage. His superior striking volume (5.52 vs 4.99 SLPM) combined with better accuracy (56% vs 54%) creates consistent pressure. Ferreira's recent submission losses to Abus Magomedov expose vulnerability when hu...
GPT HIT
Gregory Rodrigues
68%win confidence
KO/TKO 55%
Submission 10%
Decision 35%
Rodrigues has higher striking volume, slightly better accuracy, and a small but real physical edge, while also owning a large grappling advantage with 2.74 TDs per fight at 41% accuracy and 100% takedown defense. Ferreira is explosive but more one-note, with low takedown accuracy and only average de...
FINAL: Cody Garbrandt by U-DEC
Garbrandt LLWWL 266d out Long LWL 196d out last 5
Cody Garbrandt last fought 266 days ago
L
vs Raoni Barcelos · U-DEC2025-06-14
L
vs Deiveson Figueiredo · SUB2024-04-13
W
vs Brian Kelleher · KO/TKO2023-12-16
W
vs Trevin Jones · U-DEC2023-03-04
L
vs Kai Kara-France · KO/TKO2021-12-11
Xiao Long last fought 196 days ago
L
vs SuYoung You · U-DEC2025-08-23
W
vs Quang Le · 2024-11-23
L
vs ChangHo Lee · S-DEC2024-01-20
Claude MISS
Xiao Long
63%win confidence
KO/TKO 25%
Submission 10%
Decision 65%
Garbrandt's decline is evident with 3 losses in his last 5 fights, including being finished twice. Xiao Long's superior striking volume (4.98 vs 2.98 SLPM) and better accuracy (52% vs 40%) create a significant output advantage. Long's 5-inch reach advantage despite same height allows him to control ...
GPT MISS
Xiao Long
68%win confidence
KO/TKO 32%
Submission 3%
Decision 65%
Xiao Long's significantly higher striking volume and accuracy (4.98 SLpM at 52%) combined with a positive striking differential give him a strong statistical edge over Garbrandt, whose numbers show a negative differential and lower output. Garbrandt still has elite speed and power, but his durabilit...
Johnson W 126d out Todorovic WLWLW 175d out last 5
Donte Johnson last fought 126 days ago
W
vs Sedriques Dumas · SUB Guillotine Choke2025-11-01
Dusko Todorovic last fought 175 days ago
W
vs Jose Medina · SUB Rear Naked Choke2025-09-13
L
vs Christian Leroy Duncan · KO/TKO2023-03-18
W
vs Jordan Wright · KO/TKO2022-10-15
L
vs Chidi Njokuani · KO/TKO2022-05-21
W
vs Maki Pitolo · KO/TKO2021-12-04
Claude
Donte Johnson
78%win confidence
KO/TKO 70%
Submission 15%
Decision 15%
Johnson's undefeated 7-0 record with 5 recent finishes showcases elite finishing ability. His extraordinary striking volume (14.06 vs 5.54 SLPM) and accuracy (71% vs 57%) create overwhelming offensive output. Todorovic's poor striking defense (46%) and recent KO losses to lesser competition expose m...
GPT
Dusko Todorovic
64%win confidence
KO/TKO 58%
Submission 7%
Decision 35%
Johnson's striking numbers are clearly from an extremely small or skewed sample and are unsupported by any grappling data (0% TD offense/defense, no proven durability or win rate). Todorovic, while defensively flawed, has established UFC experience, proven finishing ability, and a more complete MMA ...
FINAL: Alberto Montes by SUB Anaconda Choke
Turcios LLWLW 413d out Montes last 5
Ricky Turcios last fought 413 days ago
L
vs Benardo Sopaj · U-DEC2025-01-18
L
vs Raul Rosas Jr. · SUB2024-01-06
W
vs Kevin Natividad · S-DEC2022-11-19
L
vs Aiemann Zahabi · U-DEC2022-07-09
W
vs Brady Hiestand · S-DEC2021-08-28
Alberto Montes no UFC fights on record
Claude HIT
Alberto Montes
72%win confidence
KO/TKO 15%
Submission 55%
Decision 30%
Montes' exceptional submission rate (4 of last 5 wins by submission) and 9.8 subs per 15 minutes presents a massive threat to Turcios, who has been submitted twice recently including by Raul Rosas Jr. Turcios' 45% takedown defense and recent struggles against grapplers make him vulnerable to Montes'...
GPT HIT
Alberto Montes
72%win confidence
KO/TKO 18%
Submission 44%
Decision 38%
Montes shows far greater finishing aggression on the mat with an extremely high submissions-per-fight rate and superior striking accuracy, while Turcios has historically porous takedown defense and relies more on pace than control. Montes' combination of efficient offense (higher effective strike ra...
FINAL: Nyamjargal Tumendemberel by U-DEC
Durden LLWLL 266d out Tumendemberel W 469d out last 5
Cody Durden last fought 266 days ago
L
vs Jose Ochoa · KO/TKO Punch2025-06-14
L
vs Joshua Van · U-DEC2024-12-07
W
vs Matt Schnell · SUB2024-03-23
L
vs Bruno Silva · KO/TKO2024-02-10
L
vs Tagir Ulanbekov · SUB2023-12-16
Nyamjargal Tumendemberel last fought 469 days ago, long layoff
W
vs Carlos Hernandez · 2024-11-23
Claude HIT
Nyamjargal Tumendemberel
65%win confidence
KO/TKO 20%
Submission 50%
Decision 30%
Tumendemberel's 9-1 record with recent submission wins over Saeteurn and Danesoe showcases his dangerous ground game. Durden has lost 4 of his last 5 fights, including submissions to Nascimento and Silva. Tumendemberel's 4-inch reach advantage and superior submission rate (3.7 vs 0.9) combined with ...
GPT MISS
Cody Durden
66%win confidence
KO/TKO 18%
Submission 17%
Decision 65%
Durden has the more proven UFC resume and a strong wrestling base with solid takedown defense (73%), which is a key counter to Tumendemberel's submission-heavy grappling profile (3.7 subs per 15 with just 14% TD defense). While Tumendemberel throws higher volume and is dangerous in scrambles, that l...
FINAL: Sumudaerji by U-DEC
Sumudaerji WWLLL 196d out Aguilar WLWWW 175d out last 5
Sumudaerji last fought 196 days ago
W
vs Kevin Borjas · U-DEC2025-08-23
W
vs Mitch Raposo · S-DEC2025-04-12
L
vs Charles Johnson · U-DEC2024-04-27
L
vs Tim Elliott · SUB2023-12-09
L
vs Matt Schnell · SUB2022-07-16
Jesus Aguilar last fought 175 days ago
W
vs Luis Gurule · U-DEC2025-09-13
L
vs Rafael Estevam · U-DEC2025-02-15
W
vs Stewart Nicoll · SUB2024-03-09
W
vs Mateus Mendonca · S-DEC2024-02-24
W
vs Shannon Ross · KO/TKO2023-07-08
Claude MISS
Jesus Aguilar
68%win confidence
KO/TKO 15%
Submission 35%
Decision 50%
Aguilar's 4-1 recent record and 80% career win rate contrast sharply with Sumudaerji's 2-3 recent form and submission vulnerability (lost via sub to Elliott and Schnell). While Sumudaerji has striking volume advantage (4.72 vs 1.46 SLPM), Aguilar's superior grappling threat and better recent form gi...
GPT HIT
Sumudaerji
68%win confidence
KO/TKO 48%
Submission 7%
Decision 45%
Sumudaerji's much higher striking volume, efficiency, and 10-inch reach advantage should allow him to keep this largely at kicking and boxing range, punishing Aguilar's predictable entries. Aguilar's path is heavily grappling/submission-based, but his low takedown accuracy and very poor takedown def...
Yoo LW 154d out Bolanos LLLW 308d out last 5
JooSang Yoo last fought 154 days ago
L
vs Daniel Santos · KO/TKO Punch2025-10-04
W
vs Jeka Saragih · KO/TKO Punch2025-06-07
Gaston Bolanos last fought 308 days ago
L
vs Quang Le · SUB Rear Naked Choke2025-05-03
L
vs win · 2024-11-09
L
vs Marcus McGhee · KO/TKO2024-01-13
W
vs Aaron Phillips · U-DEC2023-04-15
Claude
Gaston Bolanos
62%win confidence
KO/TKO 25%
Submission 10%
Decision 65%
While Yoo lacks UFC data, Bolanos brings proven octagon experience despite recent struggles. His 43% striking accuracy and 3.88 SLPM output, though modest, represents tested UFC-level skills. Bolanos' recent move from bantamweight to featherweight could benefit him size-wise. His 2-fight losing stre...
GPT
Gaston Bolanos
68%win confidence
KO/TKO 58%
Submission 4%
Decision 38%
Bolanos is a proven, high-level Muay Thai striker with solid UFC striking metrics (3.88 SLpM at 43% accuracy, positive differential) and respectable defensive numbers. Yoo is an unknown quantity at the UFC level with no statistical sample, making it unlikely he can out-strike or safely navigate Bola...
FINAL: Rodolfo Bellato by KO/TKO Punches
Fernandez Bellato LW 161d out last 5
Luke Fernandez no UFC fights on record
Rodolfo Bellato last fought 161 days ago
L
vs Navajo Stirling · U-DEC2025-09-27
W
vs Ihor Potieria · KO/TKO2023-12-02
Claude MISS
Luke Fernandez
73%win confidence
KO/TKO 55%
Submission 15%
Decision 30%
Fernandez's undefeated 6-0 record with diverse finishes (TKO/SUB) showcases elite finishing ability. His astronomical 32 SLPM with 100% accuracy (limited data but telling) suggests explosive offensive output. Bellato's recent form concerns are significant - a loss to Navajo Stirling and draw with Ji...
GPT HIT
Rodolfo Bellato
72%win confidence
KO/TKO 52%
Submission 15%
Decision 33%
Fernandez's stats are clearly from an ultra-small or corrupted sample (32 SLpM, 100% accuracy and defense), offering no reliable read on his true level. Bellato, by contrast, has established UFC-level metrics: high offensive output (6.47 SLpM at 61% accuracy), proven durability in wild exchanges, an...