January 31, 2026
UFC 325: Volkanovski vs. Lopes 2
Card complete. GPT 5/13 (38%) · Claude 6/13 (46%)
All results
Both models agree 10 of 14 fights
Oban Elliott over Jonathan Micallef
Both call Decision
Claude 78%
GPT 76%
GPT 76%
Alexander Volkanovski over Diego Lopes
Both call Decision
Claude 72%
GPT 72%
GPT 72%
Yizha over Kaan Ofli
Both call Decision
Claude 65%
GPT 76%
GPT 76%
Tallison Teixeira over Tai Tuivasa
Both call KO/TKO
Claude 72%
GPT 68%
GPT 68%
Lawrence Lui over Sulangrangbo
Both call Decision
Claude 68%
GPT 72%
GPT 72%
Junior Tafa over Billy Elekana
Both call KO/TKO
Claude 68%
GPT 71%
GPT 71%
Quillan Salkilld over Jamie Mullarkey
Claude 72%
GPT 63%
GPT 63%
Cody Brundage over Cam Rowston
Claude 58%
GPT 69%
GPT 69%
Sebastian Szalay over Keiichiro Nakamura
Both call Decision
Claude 58%
GPT 69%
GPT 69%
Sangwook Kim over Dom Mar Fan
Both call Decision
Claude 62%
GPT 63%
GPT 63%
Double locks: both at 75% or higher 1 fight
Oban Elliott over Jonathan Micallef
Both call Decision
Claude 78%
GPT 76%
GPT 76%
Build your own list 10 match
Oban Elliott over Jonathan Micallef
Both call Decision
Claude 78%
GPT 76%
GPT 76%
Alexander Volkanovski over Diego Lopes
Both call Decision
Claude 72%
GPT 72%
GPT 72%
Yizha over Kaan Ofli
Both call Decision
Claude 65%
GPT 76%
GPT 76%
Tallison Teixeira over Tai Tuivasa
Both call KO/TKO
Claude 72%
GPT 68%
GPT 68%
Lawrence Lui over Sulangrangbo
Both call Decision
Claude 68%
GPT 72%
GPT 72%
Junior Tafa over Billy Elekana
Both call KO/TKO
Claude 68%
GPT 71%
GPT 71%
Quillan Salkilld over Jamie Mullarkey
Claude 72%
GPT 63%
GPT 63%
Cody Brundage over Cam Rowston
Claude 58%
GPT 69%
GPT 69%
Sebastian Szalay over Keiichiro Nakamura
Both call Decision
Claude 58%
GPT 69%
GPT 69%
Sangwook Kim over Dom Mar Fan
Both call Decision
Claude 62%
GPT 63%
GPT 63%
Win confidence is the model's probability that its pick wins: 55 to 64 is a shrug, 65 to 74 is confident, 75 and up is the model betting its reputation.
KO/TKO, Submission, Decision is how the model splits the ways the fight ends, out of 100.
Odds are the sportsbook moneyline with the bookmaker margin removed, so the two percentages sum to 100. When a model's confidence beats the market's implied number, that gap is the value.
Elo is an opponent adjusted rating built from every UFC fight since 1994. Click any Elo number on the card for the full explanation, including what the star means.
FINAL: Alexander Volkanovski by U-DEC
Volkanovski WLLWL 294d out Lopes WLWWW 140d out last 5
Alexander Volkanovski last fought 294 days ago
W
vs Diego Lopes · U-DEC2025-04-12
L
vs Ilia Topuria · KO/TKO2024-02-17
L
vs Islam Makhachev · KO/TKO2023-10-21
W
vs Yair Rodriguez · KO/TKO2023-07-08
L
vs Islam Makhachev · U-DEC2023-02-11
Diego Lopes last fought 140 days ago
W
vs Jean Silva · KO/TKO Punches2025-09-13
L
vs Alexander Volkanovski · U-DEC2025-04-12
W
vs Sodiq Yusuff · KO/TKO2024-04-13
W
vs Brian Ortega · U-DEC2024-03-30
W
vs Dan Ige · U-DEC2024-01-27
Claude HIT
Alexander Volkanovski
72%win confidence
KO/TKO 25%
Submission 10%
Decision 65%
This rematch heavily favors Volkanovski based on their first encounter where he won by decision. Volkanovski's superior striking accuracy (56% vs 53%), defensive metrics (58% vs 50%), and significant strike differential (+2.72 vs +0.09) create a clear technical advantage. The 5-inch height disadvant...
GPT HIT
Alexander Volkanovski
72%win confidence
KO/TKO 24%
Submission 8%
Decision 68%
Volkanovski's superior striking metrics (higher SLPM, better accuracy, and stronger strike differential) combined with significantly better defensive numbers and proven five-round pacing should allow him to control the majority of the minutes. Lopes is the far more dangerous submission threat, but h...
FINAL: Benoit Saint Denis by KO/TKO Punches
Hooker LWWWL 70d out Denis WWWLL 77d out last 5
Dan Hooker last fought 70 days ago
L
vs Arman Tsarukyan · SUB Arm Triangle2025-11-22
W
vs Mateusz Gamrot · S-DEC2024-03-09
W
vs Jalin Turner · S-DEC2023-07-08
W
vs Claudio Puelles · KO/TKO2022-11-12
L
vs Arnold Allen · KO/TKO2022-03-19
Benoit Saint Denis last fought 77 days ago
W
vs Beneil Dariush · KO/TKO Punch2025-11-15
W
vs Mauricio Ruffy · SUB Rear Naked Choke2025-09-06
W
vs Kyle Prepolec · SUB Arm Triangle2025-05-10
L
vs Renato Moicano · KO/TKO2024-04-06
L
vs Dustin Poirier · KO/TKO2024-03-09
Claude MISS
Dan Hooker
68%win confidence
KO/TKO 55%
Submission 15%
Decision 30%
Saint Denis' recent form shows vulnerability to strikes, losing 3 of his last 5 by KO/TKO. Hooker's superior striking defense (51% vs 41%) and reach advantage (75" vs 73") allow him to maintain distance and pick apart BSD. Saint Denis averages 4.98 strikes absorbed per minute with only 41% defense, ...
GPT HIT
Benoit Saint Denis
69%win confidence
KO/TKO 28%
Submission 33%
Decision 39%
Saint Denis' relentless pressure, nearly 4 takedowns per fight, and far higher submission rate (1.2 per fight) create a stylistic squeeze on Hooker, whose game is built around distance striking and strong but not impenetrable takedown defense (78%). Hooker has the cleaner, more efficient striking an...
FINAL: Mauricio Ruffy by KO/TKO Punches
Fiziev WLLLW 224d out Ruffy LWWW 147d out last 5
Rafael Fiziev last fought 224 days ago
W
vs Ignacio Bahamondes · U-DEC2025-06-21
L
vs Justin Gaethje · U-DEC2025-03-08
L
vs Mateusz Gamrot · KO/TKO2023-09-23
L
vs Justin Gaethje · M-DEC2023-03-18
W
vs Rafael Dos Anjos · KO/TKO2022-07-09
Mauricio Ruffy last fought 147 days ago
L
vs Benoit Saint Denis · SUB Rear Naked Choke2025-09-06
W
vs King Green · KO/TKO Kick2025-03-08
W
vs James Llontop · 2024-11-16
W
vs Jamie Mullarkey · KO/TKO2023-12-09
Claude HIT
Mauricio Ruffy
62%win confidence
KO/TKO 35%
Submission 5%
Decision 60%
Ruffy's undefeated UFC record (100% win rate) showcases superior striking efficiency with 59% accuracy vs Fiziev's 51%. The 4-inch reach advantage (75" vs 71") and better defensive metrics (59% vs 49%) create a stylistic nightmare for Fiziev. Ruffy's +1.08 strike differential compared to Fiziev's -0...
GPT MISS
Rafael Fiziev
69%win confidence
KO/TKO 48%
Submission 4%
Decision 48%
Despite Ruffy's cleaner early UFC stats, Fiziev's proven elite-level striking against top-10 lightweights, superior experience over 3-5 hard rounds, and historically excellent takedown defense favor him in a primarily stand-up fight. Ruffy's defensive numbers and accuracy suggest he is dangerous and...
FINAL: Tallison Teixeira by U-DEC
Tuivasa LLLLL 686d out Teixeira LW 203d out last 5
Tai Tuivasa last fought 686 days ago, long layoff
L
vs Marcin Tybura · SUB2024-03-16
L
vs Jairzinho Rozenstruik · S-DEC2024-03-09
L
vs Alexander Volkov · SUB2023-09-09
L
vs Sergei Pavlovich · KO/TKO2022-12-03
L
vs Ciryl Gane · KO/TKO2022-09-03
Tallison Teixeira last fought 203 days ago
L
vs Derrick Lewis · KO/TKO Punches2025-07-12
W
vs Justin Tafa · KO/TKO Elbow2025-02-08
Claude HIT
Tallison Teixeira
72%win confidence
KO/TKO 65%
Submission 8%
Decision 27%
Tuivasa is on a devastating 5-fight losing streak, with 4 of those losses coming by finish. His striking defense has completely deteriorated (44%), and he's absorbing 5.18 significant strikes per minute. Teixeira brings an 8-inch reach advantage and exceptional striking volume (14.87 SLPM) with bett...
GPT HIT
Tallison Teixeira
68%win confidence
KO/TKO 72%
Submission 3%
Decision 25%
Teixeira's numbers, even if inflated by a small sample, indicate far higher output, better accuracy, and better strike differential than Tuivasa. Tuivasa's defensive metrics (high damage absorbed, low strike defense, limited wrestling) make him vulnerable to a volume-based, accurate striker with a s...
FINAL: Quillan Salkilld by SUB Neck Crank
Salkilld WW 238d out Mullarkey WLLWL 126d out last 5
Quillan Salkilld last fought 238 days ago
W
vs Yanal Ashmouz · U-DEC2025-06-07
W
vs Anshul Jubli · KO/TKO Punch2025-02-08
Jamie Mullarkey last fought 126 days ago
W
vs Rolando Bedoya · U-DEC2025-09-27
L
vs Mauricio Ruffy · KO/TKO2023-12-09
L
vs Nasrat Haqparast · KO/TKO2023-12-09
W
vs John Makdessi · U-DEC2023-09-09
L
vs Muhammad Naimov · KO/TKO2023-06-03
Claude HIT
Quillan Salkilld
72%win confidence
KO/TKO 15%
Submission 55%
Decision 30%
Salkilld's overwhelming grappling advantage (9.0 takedowns per fight at 40% accuracy vs Mullarkey's 78% TDD) combined with Mullarkey's alarming recent form (3 KO losses in his last 5) creates a clear path to victory. Mullarkey's chin appears compromised, but Salkilld's submission-heavy approach (1.0...
GPT HIT
Quillan Salkilld
63%win confidence
KO/TKO 27%
Submission 18%
Decision 55%
Salkilld's numbers point to a much higher-paced, more efficient mixed attack than Mullarkey, with a strong wrestling component (9 TDs per fight at 40% with 100% TD defense) layered onto superior striking volume and accuracy. Mullarkey is more experienced and defensively sound on the feet, but his ne...
FINAL: Billy Elekana by SUB Rear Naked Choke
Tafa LWLLW 203d out Elekana WL 91d out last 5
Junior Tafa last fought 203 days ago
L
vs Tuco Tokkos · SUB Arm Triangle2025-07-12
W
vs Sean Sharaf · KO/TKO2024-04-27
L
vs Valter Walker · SUB2024-03-09
L
vs Marcos Rogerio de Lima · KO/TKO2024-02-17
W
vs Parker Porter · KO/TKO2023-08-26
Billy Elekana last fought 91 days ago
W
vs Kevin Christian · SUB Rear Naked Choke2025-11-01
L
vs Bogdan Guskov · SUB Guillotine Choke2025-01-18
Claude MISS
Junior Tafa
68%win confidence
KO/TKO 65%
Submission 10%
Decision 25%
Tafa brings proven UFC experience against a debuting Elekana with no recorded professional stats. Despite recent submission losses exposing grappling weaknesses, Tafa's power striking (2 recent KO wins) and 3.36 SLPM output should overwhelm an inexperienced opponent. The southpaw stance of Elekana c...
GPT MISS
Junior Tafa
71%win confidence
KO/TKO 63%
Submission 3%
Decision 34%
Tafa is a proven power striker with solid offensive efficiency and adequate takedown defense, facing a debuting/low-sample opponent with no demonstrated UFC-level metrics. In a likely heavyweight-style matchup, his experience against higher-caliber opposition, southpaw power, and comfort in striking...
FINAL: Cam Rowston by KO/TKO Punches
Rowston W 126d out Brundage LWLLW 175d out last 5
Cam Rowston last fought 126 days ago
W
vs Andre Petroski · KO/TKO Punches2025-09-27
Cody Brundage last fought 175 days ago
L
vs Eric McConico · S-DEC2025-08-09
W
vs Julian Marquez · KO/TKO Punches2025-03-01
L
vs Bo Nickal · SUB2024-04-13
L
vs Abdul Razak Alhassan · CNC2024-02-03
W
vs Zach Reese · KO/TKO2023-12-02
Claude MISS
Cody Brundage
58%win confidence
KO/TKO 20%
Submission 25%
Decision 55%
Despite Rowston's 6-inch reach advantage and superior striking defense (47% vs 41%), Brundage's wrestling (2.31 takedowns per fight at 50% accuracy) should control this fight. Rowston's abysmal 28% takedown defense is the key vulnerability Brundage will exploit. While Brundage is on a downward trend...
GPT MISS
Cody Brundage
69%win confidence
KO/TKO 18%
Submission 37%
Decision 45%
Brundage has a large wrestling and grappling edge (2.31 TDs per 15 with 50% accuracy vs Rowston's 28% TD defense). Rowston's numbers suggest a low-volume, relatively efficient striker with no offensive wrestling, which is a poor profile against a physically strong, takedown-focused opponent. Brundag...
FINAL: Jacob Malkoun by U-DEC
Malkoun WLWLW 672d out Finney W 301d out last 5
Jacob Malkoun last fought 672 days ago, long layoff
W
vs Andre Petroski · KO/TKO2024-03-30
L
vs Cody Brundage · DQ2023-09-23
W
vs Nick Maximov · U-DEC2022-10-15
L
vs Brendan Allen · U-DEC2022-06-11
W
vs AJ Dobson · U-DEC2022-02-12
Torrez Finney last fought 301 days ago
W
vs Robert Valentin · S-DEC2025-04-05
Claude HIT
Jacob Malkoun
72%win confidence
KO/TKO 25%
Submission 15%
Decision 60%
Malkoun's recent KO victory shows improved striking power, while maintaining his wrestling-heavy approach. Finney's 0% takedown defense is extremely concerning against Malkoun's 6.62 takedowns per fight. Malkoun's superior striking defense (52% vs 50%) and experience in the UFC give him clear paths ...
GPT MISS
Torrez Finney
68%win confidence
KO/TKO 18%
Submission 27%
Decision 55%
Both are wrestle-grapplers, but Finney's numbers indicate a more explosive and efficient takedown game (10.0 TDs/fight at 69% vs. 6.6 at 42%) combined with higher striking accuracy and slightly better strike differential. Malkoun's historically porous takedown defense (20%) suggests he may be forced...
FINAL: Jonathan Micallef by SUB Rear Naked Choke
Micallef W 357d out Elliott LLWW 224d out last 5
Jonathan Micallef last fought 357 days ago
W
vs Kevin Jousset · U-DEC2025-02-08
Oban Elliott last fought 224 days ago
L
vs Seokhyeon Ko · U-DEC2025-06-21
L
vs Bassil Hafez · 2024-11-16
W
vs Preston Parsons · U-DEC2024-02-17
W
vs Val Woodburn · U-DEC2024-02-17
Claude MISS
Oban Elliott
78%win confidence
KO/TKO 35%
Submission 10%
Decision 55%
Elliott's massive striking volume advantage (3.82 vs 0.33 SLPM) and superior defense (61% vs 16%) create an overwhelming stylistic mismatch. Micallef's 5 submissions per fight average is concerning, but Elliott's 72% takedown defense and striking dominance should keep the fight standing. Elliott's 3...
GPT MISS
Oban Elliott
76%win confidence
KO/TKO 27%
Submission 11%
Decision 62%
Elliott has a massive proven edge in striking volume and efficiency (3.82 SLpM vs 0.33, +1.58 vs -1.33 differential) plus clearly better defense (61% vs 16%). While Micallef's stats suggest strong offensive grappling potential (4.97 TD avg, 5.0 subs per 15), they are based on a tiny, unreliable samp...
FINAL: Kaan Ofli by M-DEC
Ofli WLL 112d out Yizha WLL 161d out last 5
Kaan Ofli last fought 112 days ago
W
vs Ricardo Ramos · SUB Rear Naked Choke2025-10-11
L
vs Muhammad Naimov · U-DEC2025-02-01
L
vs Mairon Santos · KO/TKO2024-03-16
Yizha last fought 161 days ago
W
vs Westin Wilson · KO/TKO Punches2025-08-23
L
vs Gabriel Santos · U-DEC2024-03-23
L
vs JeongYeong Lee · S-DEC2023-02-04
Claude MISS
Yizha
65%win confidence
KO/TKO 20%
Submission 25%
Decision 55%
Despite both fighters coming off losses, Yizha presents significant grappling threats with 3.54 takedowns and 1.1 submissions per fight against Ofli's non-existent ground game (0% TD defense, 0 takedowns). Yizha's 5-inch reach advantage and slightly better striking volume (2.8 vs 1.85 SLPM) provide ...
GPT MISS
Yizha
76%win confidence
KO/TKO 18%
Submission 27%
Decision 55%
Yizha has a far more complete and proven statistical profile, with solid offensive wrestling volume (3.54 TDs per fight) and a meaningful submission threat (1.1 subs per fight) against an opponent with effectively no demonstrated takedown offense or defense. On the feet, Yizha has higher output and ...
FINAL: Dom Mar Fan by U-DEC
Claude MISS
Sangwook Kim
62%win confidence
KO/TKO 15%
Submission 25%
Decision 60%
Kim's established UFC metrics give him a clear edge over the debuting Fan. With a 51% striking accuracy and solid 66% takedown defense, Kim has shown he can compete at the UFC level. His orthodox stance and 72-inch reach provide standard lightweight dimensions. The striking differential of -2.37 is ...
GPT MISS
Sangwook Kim
63%win confidence
KO/TKO 27%
Submission 11%
Decision 62%
Available data only meaningfully profiles Sangwook Kim, who shows high offensive output (5.57 SLpM at 51% accuracy) but a very negative striking differential due to porous defense (7.94 SApM, 48% defense). That profile typically translates to competitive, high-variance striking fights where durabili...
FINAL: Keiichiro Nakamura by KO/TKO Knee
Claude MISS
Sebastian Szalay
58%win confidence
KO/TKO 20%
Submission 5%
Decision 75%
This matchup features two strikers with similar offensive output but Szalay holds significant defensive advantages. His 71% striking defense compared to Nakamura's 66% is crucial in a striker vs striker matchup. Szalay's superior striking differential of +2.98 vs Nakamura's +1.83 indicates better ov...
GPT MISS
Sebastian Szalay
69%win confidence
KO/TKO 18%
Submission 7%
Decision 75%
Szalay shows superior defensive metrics with lower strikes absorbed per minute and higher strike defense while maintaining comparable offensive output and slightly better accuracy. Combined with a small reach edge and similar takedown defense on both sides, this projects as a primarily striking batt...
FINAL: Lawrence Lui by S-DEC
Claude HIT
Lawrence Lui
68%win confidence
KO/TKO 10%
Submission 25%
Decision 65%
With zero data on Sulangrangbo, Lui's established UFC metrics make him the clear favorite. Lui's wrestling-heavy approach with 4.13 takedowns per fight at 35% accuracy, combined with perfect 100% takedown defense, suggests a dominant grappling advantage. His 3.9 strikes landed per minute with 63% de...
GPT HIT
Lawrence Lui
72%win confidence
KO/TKO 18%
Submission 15%
Decision 67%
With no available data on Sulangrangbo, the only reliable indicators are Lui's proven output and defensive metrics. Lui shows a balanced, defensively sound style (63% striking defense, 100% takedown defense) combined with strong wrestling volume (4.13 TDs per fight at 35% accuracy). Those stats sugg...
Claude
Aaron Tau
68%win confidence
KO/TKO 22%
Submission 10%
Decision 68%
Tau's superior striking metrics create a significant advantage in this flyweight matchup. His 56% striking accuracy compared to Batbayar's 39% represents a massive 17% differential. Combined with better volume (5.07 vs 3.5 SLPM) and superior defense (58% vs 45%), Tau should control the striking exch...
GPT
Namsrai Batbayar
69%win confidence
KO/TKO 22%
Submission 24%
Decision 54%
Batbayar's consistent takedown output (2.15 per fight) and active submission game (1.1 subs per fight) line up well against Tau's mediocre 54% takedown defense and complete lack of offensive wrestling. Tau is the more efficient and higher-volume striker with better defense, but with no grappling thr...