January 24, 2026
UFC 324: Gaethje vs. Pimblett
Card complete. GPT 7/10 (70%) · Claude 7/10 (70%)
All results
Both models agree 10 of 13 fights
Umar Nurmagomedov over Deiveson Figueiredo
Both call Decision
Claude 78%
GPT 78%
GPT 78%
Justin Gaethje over Paddy Pimblett
Both call KO/TKO
Claude 72%
GPT 78%
GPT 78%
Nikita Krylov over Modestas Bukauskas
Both call Submission
Claude 75%
GPT 72%
GPT 72%
Josh Hokit over Denzel Freeman
Claude 72%
GPT 71%
GPT 71%
Derrick Lewis over Waldo Cortes Acosta
Both call KO/TKO
Claude 72%
GPT 68%
GPT 68%
Natalia Silva over Rose Namajunas
Both call Decision
Claude 72%
GPT 68%
GPT 68%
Cameron Smotherman over Ricky Turcios
Both call Decision
Claude 71%
GPT 68%
GPT 68%
Sean O'Malley over Song Yadong
Both call Decision
Claude 68%
GPT 70%
GPT 70%
Alexander Hernandez over Michael Johnson
Both call Decision
Claude 68%
GPT 64%
GPT 64%
Andrey Pulyaev over Ateba Gautier
Both call Decision
Claude 62%
GPT 63%
GPT 63%
Double locks: both at 75% or higher 1 fight
Umar Nurmagomedov over Deiveson Figueiredo
Both call Decision
Claude 78%
GPT 78%
GPT 78%
Build your own list 10 match
Umar Nurmagomedov over Deiveson Figueiredo
Both call Decision
Claude 78%
GPT 78%
GPT 78%
Justin Gaethje over Paddy Pimblett
Both call KO/TKO
Claude 72%
GPT 78%
GPT 78%
Nikita Krylov over Modestas Bukauskas
Both call Submission
Claude 75%
GPT 72%
GPT 72%
Josh Hokit over Denzel Freeman
Claude 72%
GPT 71%
GPT 71%
Derrick Lewis over Waldo Cortes Acosta
Both call KO/TKO
Claude 72%
GPT 68%
GPT 68%
Natalia Silva over Rose Namajunas
Both call Decision
Claude 72%
GPT 68%
GPT 68%
Cameron Smotherman over Ricky Turcios
Both call Decision
Claude 71%
GPT 68%
GPT 68%
Sean O'Malley over Song Yadong
Both call Decision
Claude 68%
GPT 70%
GPT 70%
Alexander Hernandez over Michael Johnson
Both call Decision
Claude 68%
GPT 64%
GPT 64%
Andrey Pulyaev over Ateba Gautier
Both call Decision
Claude 62%
GPT 63%
GPT 63%
Win confidence is the model's probability that its pick wins: 55 to 64 is a shrug, 65 to 74 is confident, 75 and up is the model betting its reputation.
KO/TKO, Submission, Decision is how the model splits the ways the fight ends, out of 100.
Odds are the sportsbook moneyline with the bookmaker margin removed, so the two percentages sum to 100. When a model's confidence beats the market's implied number, that gap is the value.
Elo is an opponent adjusted rating built from every UFC fight since 1994. Click any Elo number on the card for the full explanation, including what the star means.
FINAL: Justin Gaethje by U-DEC
Gaethje WLWWL 322d out Pimblett WWWWW 287d out last 5
Justin Gaethje last fought 322 days ago
W
vs Rafael Fiziev · U-DEC2025-03-08
L
vs Max Holloway · KO/TKO2024-04-13
W
vs Dustin Poirier · KO/TKO2023-07-29
W
vs Rafael Fiziev · M-DEC2023-03-18
L
vs Charles Oliveira · SUB2022-05-07
Paddy Pimblett last fought 287 days ago
W
vs Michael Chandler · KO/TKO Elbows2025-04-12
W
vs King Green · SUB2024-02-17
W
vs Tony Ferguson · U-DEC2023-12-16
W
vs Jared Gordon · U-DEC2022-12-10
W
vs Jordan Leavitt · SUB2022-07-23
Claude HIT
Justin Gaethje
72%win confidence
KO/TKO 55%
Submission 10%
Decision 35%
Gaethje's elite striking volume (6.78 SLPM vs 4.94) and proven power against top competition gives him a decisive edge. While Pimblett showed he can hang with strikers by stopping Chandler, Gaethje's 59% accuracy and leg kick heavy approach will compromise Paddy's movement early. Pimblett's 40% stri...
GPT HIT
Justin Gaethje
78%win confidence
KO/TKO 63%
Submission 4%
Decision 33%
Gaethje's proven elite striking, durability, and leg-kick game match up brutally with Pimblett's hittable defense and slower, looping entries. Paddy's path is largely grappling-based, but his 25% TD accuracy and 52% TD defense suggest he'll struggle to consistently get Gaethje down or keep him there...
Harrison WWW 231d out Nunes WWLWW 959d out last 5
Kayla Harrison last fought 231 days ago
W
vs Julianna Pena · SUB Kimura2025-06-07
W
vs Holly Holm · SUB2024-04-13
W
vs Ketlen Vieira · U-DEC2024-04-13
Amanda Nunes last fought 959 days ago, long layoff
W
vs Irene Aldana · U-DEC2023-06-10
W
vs Julianna Pena · U-DEC2022-07-30
L
vs Julianna Pena · SUB2021-12-11
W
vs Megan Anderson · SUB2021-03-06
W
vs Felicia Spencer · U-DEC2020-06-06
Claude
Kayla Harrison
65%win confidence
KO/TKO 20%
Submission 25%
Decision 55%
Harrison's Olympic-level grappling and perfect takedown defense (100%) presents a unique challenge for Nunes. While Amanda has superior striking experience, Harrison's 3.68 striking differential shows she's developed into a complete fighter. The key will be Harrison's ability to close distance - her...
GPT
Amanda Nunes
69%win confidence
KO/TKO 32%
Submission 8%
Decision 60%
Harrison's UFC sample shows elite top control, high striking accuracy largely built off her judo-based takedown game, and very low damage absorbed, but the numbers are inflated by favorable stylistic matchups and limited opposition compared to Nunes' historic strength of schedule. Nunes has proven 5...
FINAL: Sean O'Malley by U-DEC
O'Malley LLWWW 231d out Yadong WLWWL 336d out last 5
Sean O'Malley last fought 231 days ago
L
vs Merab Dvalishvili · SUB Guillotine Choke2025-06-07
L
vs Merab Dvalishvili · U-DEC2024-03-30
W
vs Marlon Vera · U-DEC2024-03-09
W
vs Aljamain Sterling · KO/TKO2023-08-19
W
vs Petr Yan · S-DEC2022-10-22
Song Yadong last fought 336 days ago
W
vs Henry Cejudo · U-DEC2025-02-22
L
vs Petr Yan · U-DEC2024-03-09
W
vs Chris Gutierrez · U-DEC2023-12-09
W
vs Ricky Simon · KO/TKO2023-04-29
L
vs Cory Sandhagen · KO/TKO2022-09-17
Claude HIT
Sean O'Malley
68%win confidence
KO/TKO 30%
Submission 5%
Decision 65%
O'Malley's significant reach advantage (72" vs 67") and superior striking metrics make him the clear favorite. His 6.7 SLPM with 61% accuracy dwarfs Song's 4.49 SLPM at 43% accuracy. Their common opponent analysis is telling - O'Malley defeated Yan while Song lost, and both beat Vera. O'Malley's mov...
GPT HIT
Sean O'Malley
70%win confidence
KO/TKO 38%
Submission 4%
Decision 58%
O'Malley's superior striking efficiency (6.7 SLpM at 61% vs 4.49 at 43%), better strike differential (+3.22 vs +0.53), and reach advantage should allow him to control range, out-land Song, and win minutes over five rounds. Song's durability, strong takedown defense (72%), and power make him dangerou...
FINAL: Waldo Cortes Acosta by KO/TKO Punches
Acosta W 63d out Lewis WWLWL 196d out last 5
Waldo Cortes Acosta last fought 63 days ago
W
vs Shamil Gaziev · KO/TKO Punch2025-11-22
Derrick Lewis last fought 196 days ago
W
vs Tallison Teixeira · KO/TKO Punches2025-07-12
W
vs Rodrigo Nascimento · KO/TKO2023-12-16
L
vs Jailton Almeida · U-DEC2023-11-04
W
vs Marcos Rogerio de Lima · KO/TKO2023-07-29
L
vs Serghei Spivac · SUB2023-02-04
Claude MISS
Derrick Lewis
72%win confidence
KO/TKO 68%
Submission 8%
Decision 24%
Lewis's recent resurgence with 3 TKO victories in his last 5 fights showcases his legendary one-punch power remains intact. Acosta's 48% striking accuracy and absorption of 3.52 strikes per minute creates vulnerability against Lewis's counter-punching style. Lewis's experience edge (41 UFC fights vs...
GPT MISS
Derrick Lewis
68%win confidence
KO/TKO 63%
Submission 2%
Decision 35%
Despite Cortes Acosta's volume and better strike differential, Lewis' historically elite one-shot power, five-round experience, and proven ability to finish durable heavyweights make him the more dangerous and likely winner in a primarily striking-based matchup. Waldo's tendency to box at mid-range ...
FINAL: Jean Silva by U-DEC
Allen WLLWW 707d out Silva LWWWW 133d out last 5
Arnold Allen last fought 707 days ago, long layoff
W
vs Giga Chikadze · U-DEC2024-02-17
L
vs Movsar Evloev · U-DEC2024-01-20
L
vs Max Holloway · U-DEC2023-04-15
W
vs Calvin Kattar · KO/TKO2022-10-29
W
vs Dan Hooker · KO/TKO2022-03-19
Jean Silva last fought 133 days ago
L
vs Diego Lopes · KO/TKO Punches2025-09-13
W
vs Bryce Mitchell · SUB Guillotine Choke2025-04-12
W
vs Melsik Baghdasaryan · KO/TKO Punch2025-02-22
W
vs Drew Dober · KO/TKO2024-02-03
W
vs Charles Jourdain · KO/TKO2024-01-27
Claude HIT
Jean Silva
68%win confidence
KO/TKO 55%
Submission 5%
Decision 40%
Silva's explosive striking volume (5.37 SLPM vs Allen's 3.45) combined with his perfect 5-0 UFC record via all knockouts presents a significant threat. Allen has shown vulnerability in recent fights, going 2-2 in his last 4. Silva's 11% better striking accuracy (52% vs 41%) and superior striking dif...
GPT MISS
Arnold Allen
68%win confidence
KO/TKO 22%
Submission 10%
Decision 68%
Allen's more proven five-round durability, superior defensive metrics (61% vs 57% striking defense, better SApM), and more complete game with efficient takedowns (47% TDAcc vs top competition) match up well against Silva's high-output but hittable style. Silva's volume and power are real threats, bu...
FINAL: Natalia Silva by U-DEC
Silva WWWWW 259d out Namajunas WWWLL 224d out last 5
Natalia Silva last fought 259 days ago
W
vs Alexa Grasso · U-DEC2025-05-10
W
vs Jessica Andrade · U-DEC2024-03-23
W
vs Viviane Araujo · U-DEC2024-02-03
W
vs Andrea Lee · U-DEC2023-08-19
W
vs Victoria Leonardo · KO/TKO2023-05-20
Rose Namajunas last fought 224 days ago
W
vs Miranda Maverick · U-DEC2025-06-14
W
vs Amanda Ribas · U-DEC2024-03-23
W
vs Tracy Cortez · U-DEC2024-02-03
L
vs Manon Fiorot · U-DEC2023-09-02
L
vs Carla Esparza · S-DEC2022-05-07
Claude HIT
Natalia Silva
72%win confidence
KO/TKO 20%
Submission 5%
Decision 75%
Silva's undefeated record (5-0 UFC) and superior striking metrics give her clear advantages. Her striking differential of +2.84 significantly outpaces Namajunas' +0.32, while maintaining identical defensive percentages (64%). Silva's 91% takedown defense neutralizes Rose's wrestling advantage (1.55 ...
GPT HIT
Natalia Silva
68%win confidence
KO/TKO 18%
Submission 7%
Decision 75%
Silva's pace, striking efficiency, and elite takedown defense are well-tailored to neutralize Rose's more diverse but lower-volume game over three to five rounds. Silva lands significantly more strikes per minute with better accuracy and a far superior strike differential, while defending 91% of tak...
FINAL: Umar Nurmagomedov by U-DEC
Nurmagomedov WLWWW 91d out Figueiredo WLLWW 105d out last 5
Umar Nurmagomedov last fought 91 days ago
W
vs Mario Bautista · U-DEC2025-10-25
L
vs Merab Dvalishvili · U-DEC2025-01-18
W
vs Bekzat Almakhan · U-DEC2024-03-02
W
vs Cory Sandhagen · U-DEC2024-02-24
W
vs Raoni Barcelos · KO/TKO2023-01-14
Deiveson Figueiredo last fought 105 days ago
W
vs Montel Jackson · S-DEC2025-10-11
L
vs Cory Sandhagen · KO/TKO2025-05-03
L
vs Petr Yan · 2024-11-23
W
vs Cody Garbrandt · SUB2024-04-13
W
vs Marlon Vera · U-DEC2024-02-24
Claude HIT
Umar Nurmagomedov
78%win confidence
KO/TKO 25%
Submission 15%
Decision 60%
Nurmagomedov's perfect 100% takedown defense and superior wrestling (3.98 TD avg at 50% vs Figueiredo's 1.68 at 35%) create a dominant grappling advantage. His striking defense (63%) is significantly better than Figueiredo's (51%), while landing at higher accuracy (63% vs 55%). The 3-inch height and...
GPT HIT
Umar Nurmagomedov
78%win confidence
KO/TKO 18%
Submission 24%
Decision 58%
Umar's combination of elite defensive metrics (1.36 SApM, 63% striking defense, 100% TD defense) and high-percentage offense (63% striking accuracy, 3.98 TDs per 15 at 50% accuracy) profiles as a nightmare style matchup for an aging, smaller Figueiredo moving up. Deiveson's offensive danger (1.6 sub...
FINAL: Ateba Gautier by U-DEC
Gautier WW 189d out Pulyaev L 308d out last 5
Ateba Gautier last fought 189 days ago
W
vs Robert Valentin · KO/TKO Punch2025-07-19
W
vs Jose Daniel Medina · KO/TKO Knee2025-03-29
Andrey Pulyaev last fought 308 days ago
L
vs Christian Leroy Duncan · U-DEC2025-03-22
Claude MISS
Andrey Pulyaev
62%win confidence
KO/TKO 25%
Submission 15%
Decision 60%
Limited data makes this prediction challenging, but Pulyaev shows superior offensive output (6.53 SLPM vs 5.33) and better grappling credentials (50% TD accuracy vs 0%). While Gautier has better striking defense (56% vs 47%) and accuracy (71% vs 68%), Pulyaev's volume advantage and takedown threat s...
GPT MISS
Andrey Pulyaev
63%win confidence
KO/TKO 24%
Submission 6%
Decision 70%
Pulyaev throws higher volume with strong accuracy and mixes in takedowns at 1 per fight with 50% accuracy, which should let him edge rounds in minutes won even if clean, efficient striker Gautier lands the sharper shots. Gautier's superior strike differential, defense, and 90% TDD make him hard to d...
Johnson WWWLW 189d out Hernandez WWWWL 133d out last 5
Michael Johnson last fought 189 days ago
W
vs Daniel Zellhuber · U-DEC2025-07-19
W
vs Ottman Azaitar · KO/TKO Punch2024-12-14
W
vs Darrius Flowers · U-DEC2024-02-10
L
vs Diego Ferreira · KO/TKO2023-05-20
W
vs Marc Diakiese · U-DEC2022-12-03
Alexander Hernandez last fought 133 days ago
W
vs Diego Ferreira · KO/TKO Punches2025-09-13
W
vs Chase Hooper · KO/TKO Punch2025-08-16
W
vs Kurt Holobaugh · U-DEC2025-03-15
W
vs Austin Hubbard · S-DEC2024-04-13
L
vs Damon Jackson · S-DEC2024-04-06
Claude
Alexander Hernandez
68%win confidence
KO/TKO 30%
Submission 10%
Decision 60%
Hernandez has momentum with 3-2 recent record including back-to-back wins, while Johnson is inconsistent at 3-2. Common opponent analysis favors Hernandez - he defeated Beneil Dariush by KO while Johnson lost by decision. Hernandez's superior grappling (1.24 TDAvg vs 0.62) and better takedown defens...
GPT
Alexander Hernandez
64%win confidence
KO/TKO 26%
Submission 9%
Decision 65%
Hernandez is slightly younger, more willing to wrestle (1.24 TD avg vs 0.62), and has historically performed better against common opponents, which should allow him to mix takedowns with pressure striking to edge rounds. Johnson has the cleaner boxing and better takedown defense (81%), but his tende...
FINAL: Nikita Krylov by KO/TKO Punch
Krylov LWWWW 287d out Bukauskas WWWWL 140d out last 5
Nikita Krylov last fought 287 days ago
L
vs Dominick Reyes · KO/TKO Punch2025-04-12
W
vs Azamat Murzakanov · 2024-11-16
W
vs Ryan Spann · SUB2023-03-11
W
vs Volkan Oezdemir · U-DEC2022-10-22
W
vs Alexander Gustafsson · KO/TKO2022-07-23
Modestas Bukauskas last fought 140 days ago
W
vs Paul Craig · KO/TKO Elbow2025-09-06
W
vs Ion Cutelaba · S-DEC2025-05-10
W
vs Rafael Cerqueira · KO/TKO Punches2025-02-22
W
vs Marcin Prachnio · SUB2024-02-17
L
vs Vitor Petrino · KO/TKO2023-11-04
Claude HIT
Nikita Krylov
75%win confidence
KO/TKO 25%
Submission 45%
Decision 30%
Krylov is on a 4-fight win streak with superior grappling credentials (1.4 sub avg vs 0.2) and better striking differential (+1.91 vs -0.79). His 38% takedown accuracy may seem low, but he attempts 2.29 per fight vs Bukauskas' 0.37. Bukauskas has shown submission vulnerability, losing by sub recentl...
GPT HIT
Nikita Krylov
72%win confidence
KO/TKO 28%
Submission 37%
Decision 35%
Krylov's higher output, superior offensive grappling, and much stronger submission threat align well against Bukauskas' historically porous defensive metrics and low takedown volume. Krylov's 4.38 SLpM on 55% accuracy with a +1.91 strike differential, combined with 2.29 TDs per fight and 1.4 subs pe...
FINAL: Alex Perez by KO/TKO Punch
Perez LWLLL 63d out Johnson WLWWW 154d out last 5
Alex Perez last fought 63 days ago
L
vs Asu Almabayev · SUB Guillotine Choke2025-11-22
W
vs Matheus Nicolau · KO/TKO2024-04-27
L
vs Muhammad Mokaev · U-DEC2024-03-02
L
vs Tatsuro Taira · KO/TKO2024-01-13
L
vs Alexandre Pantoja · SUB2022-07-30
Charles Johnson last fought 154 days ago
W
vs Lone'er Kavanagh · KO/TKO Punch2025-08-23
L
vs Ramazan Temirov · U-DEC2025-03-01
W
vs Sumudaerji · U-DEC2024-04-27
W
vs Azat Maksum · U-DEC2024-02-03
W
vs Joshua Van · KO/TKO2024-02-03
Claude MISS
Charles Johnson
68%win confidence
KO/TKO 25%
Submission 15%
Decision 60%
Johnson enters on a 5-fight winning streak with superior recent form (69.2% win rate vs 50%) and better striking metrics. His 5-inch reach advantage and switch stance create defensive puzzles for the orthodox Perez. While Perez has wrestling credentials (2.04 TDAvg vs 0.56), Johnson's 67% TDD and su...
GPT HIT
Alex Perez
68%win confidence
KO/TKO 18%
Submission 12%
Decision 70%
Perez's combination of sharper pocket boxing, superior wrestling metrics (2.0 TDs per 15 with 46% accuracy vs Johnson's low-volume, low-accuracy shots), and significantly better takedown defense (77% vs 67%) should allow him to dictate where the fight takes place. Johnson's higher pace and switch st...
FINAL: Josh Hokit by KO/TKO Punches
Hokit W 77d out Freeman W 63d out last 5
Josh Hokit last fought 77 days ago
W
vs Max Gimenis · KO/TKO Punches2025-11-08
Denzel Freeman last fought 63 days ago
W
vs Marek Bujlo · U-DEC2025-11-22
Claude HIT
Josh Hokit
72%win confidence
KO/TKO 55%
Submission 20%
Decision 25%
Hokit shows exceptional striking accuracy (77%) and massive takedown output (14.75 TDAvg) despite limited UFC data. Freeman has zero recorded UFC stats, suggesting debut status. The orthodox vs southpaw dynamic favors Hokit's 77% striking accuracy landing power shots. Hokit's 4-inch reach disadvanta...
GPT HIT
Josh Hokit
71%win confidence
KO/TKO 22%
Submission 19%
Decision 59%
Hokit is an extremely wrestling-heavy fighter with massive takedown volume and efficiency, and Freeman enters with effectively no available UFC data, suggesting either debut status or unproven UFC-level defense. Hokit's 14.75 TDs per fight and 77% striking accuracy, even if from a small sample, indi...
Turcios LLWLW 371d out Smotherman LW 266d out last 5
Ricky Turcios last fought 371 days ago
L
vs Benardo Sopaj · U-DEC2025-01-18
L
vs Raul Rosas Jr. · SUB2024-01-06
W
vs Kevin Natividad · S-DEC2022-11-19
L
vs Aiemann Zahabi · U-DEC2022-07-09
W
vs Brady Hiestand · S-DEC2021-08-28
Cameron Smotherman last fought 266 days ago
L
vs Serhiy Sidey · U-DEC2025-05-03
W
vs Jake Hadley · U-DEC2024-04-27
Claude
Cameron Smotherman
71%win confidence
KO/TKO 20%
Submission 15%
Decision 65%
Smotherman's perfect 2-0 UFC record with superior striking metrics (6.25 SLPM vs 4.63) and better defensive striking (60% vs 55%) creates clear advantages. Both share 37% striking accuracy, but Smotherman's higher volume and better defense win exchanges. Turcios' wrestling (0.89 TDAvg) faces Smother...
GPT
Cameron Smotherman
68%win confidence
KO/TKO 22%
Submission 10%
Decision 68%
Smotherman's higher striking volume, slightly better defensive metrics, and superior striking differential suggest he can outwork Turcios over three rounds, while Turcios' historically mediocre wrestling efficiency and takedown defense make it unlikely he can reliably turn this into a grappling-heav...