December 6, 2025
UFC 323: Dvalishvili vs. Yan 2
Card complete. GPT 7/13 (54%) · Claude 8/13 (62%)
All results
Both models agree 9 of 14 fights
Mansur Abdul-Malik over Antonio Trocoli
Claude 75%
GPT 78%
GPT 78%
Jan Blachowicz over Bogdan Guskov
Both call Decision
Claude 72%
GPT 78%
GPT 78%
Mairon Santos over Muhammad Naimov
Claude 75%
GPT 74%
GPT 74%
Alexandre Pantoja over Joshua Van
Claude 78%
GPT 67%
GPT 67%
Merab Dvalishvili over Petr Yan
Both call Decision
Claude 72%
GPT 72%
GPT 72%
Jalin Turner over Edson Barboza
Claude 68%
GPT 71%
GPT 71%
Payton Talbott over Henry Cejudo
Both call Decision
Claude 68%
GPT 70%
GPT 70%
Marvin Vettori over Brunno Ferreira
Both call Decision
Claude 68%
GPT 67%
GPT 67%
Fares Ziam over Nazim Sadykhov
Both call Decision
Claude 65%
GPT 62%
GPT 62%
Double locks: both at 75% or higher 1 fight
Mansur Abdul-Malik over Antonio Trocoli
Claude 75%
GPT 78%
GPT 78%
Build your own list 9 match
Mansur Abdul-Malik over Antonio Trocoli
Claude 75%
GPT 78%
GPT 78%
Jan Blachowicz over Bogdan Guskov
Both call Decision
Claude 72%
GPT 78%
GPT 78%
Mairon Santos over Muhammad Naimov
Claude 75%
GPT 74%
GPT 74%
Alexandre Pantoja over Joshua Van
Claude 78%
GPT 67%
GPT 67%
Merab Dvalishvili over Petr Yan
Both call Decision
Claude 72%
GPT 72%
GPT 72%
Jalin Turner over Edson Barboza
Claude 68%
GPT 71%
GPT 71%
Payton Talbott over Henry Cejudo
Both call Decision
Claude 68%
GPT 70%
GPT 70%
Marvin Vettori over Brunno Ferreira
Both call Decision
Claude 68%
GPT 67%
GPT 67%
Fares Ziam over Nazim Sadykhov
Both call Decision
Claude 65%
GPT 62%
GPT 62%
Win confidence is the model's probability that its pick wins: 55 to 64 is a shrug, 65 to 74 is confident, 75 and up is the model betting its reputation.
KO/TKO, Submission, Decision is how the model splits the ways the fight ends, out of 100.
Odds are the sportsbook moneyline with the bookmaker margin removed, so the two percentages sum to 100. When a model's confidence beats the market's implied number, that gap is the value.
Elo is an opponent adjusted rating built from every UFC fight since 1994. Click any Elo number on the card for the full explanation, including what the star means.
FINAL: Petr Yan by U-DEC
Dvalishvili WWWWW 63d out Yan WWLLL 378d out last 5
Merab Dvalishvili last fought 63 days ago
W
vs Cory Sandhagen · U-DEC2025-10-04
W
vs Sean O'Malley · SUB Guillotine Choke2025-06-07
W
vs Umar Nurmagomedov · U-DEC2025-01-18
W
vs Sean O'Malley · U-DEC2024-03-30
W
vs Henry Cejudo · U-DEC2024-02-17
Petr Yan last fought 378 days ago
W
vs Deiveson Figueiredo · 2024-11-23
W
vs Song Yadong · U-DEC2024-03-09
L
vs Merab Dvalishvili · U-DEC2023-03-11
L
vs Sean O'Malley · S-DEC2022-10-22
L
vs Aljamain Sterling · S-DEC2022-04-09
Claude MISS
Merab Dvalishvili
72%win confidence
KO/TKO 8%
Submission 12%
Decision 80%
This rematch heavily favors Dvalishvili based on their first encounter and recent trajectories. Merab's relentless pace (5.84 takedowns per fight) and cardio advantage proved decisive in their 2023 meeting. Since then, Dvalishvili has defeated elite competition including O'Malley twice and Nurmagome...
GPT MISS
Merab Dvalishvili
72%win confidence
KO/TKO 6%
Submission 7%
Decision 87%
Dvalishvili's elite cardio, relentless takedown attempts, and superior defensive metrics give him a stylistic edge. While Yan is the more accurate and high-volume striker, Dvalishvili's pace and wrestling historically neutralize Yan's offense, as seen in their prior matchup and against common oppone...
FINAL: Joshua Van by KO/TKO
Alexandre Pantoja +106 (45.722256664600124%)
Joshua Van -136 (54.277743335399876%)
fanduel line
Pantoja WWWWW 161d out Van WWWWW 161d out last 5
Alexandre Pantoja last fought 161 days ago
W
vs Kai Kara-France · SUB Rear Naked Choke2025-06-28
W
vs Kai Asakura · SUB Rear Naked Choke2024-12-07
W
vs Brandon Royval · U-DEC2023-12-16
W
vs Steve Erceg · U-DEC2023-12-09
W
vs Brandon Moreno · S-DEC2023-07-08
Joshua Van last fought 161 days ago
W
vs Brandon Royval · U-DEC2025-06-28
W
vs Bruno Silva · KO/TKO Punches2025-06-07
W
vs Rei Tsuruya · U-DEC2025-03-08
W
vs Cody Durden · U-DEC2024-12-07
W
vs Edgar Chairez · U-DEC2024-03-30
Claude MISS
Alexandre Pantoja
78%win confidence
KO/TKO 15%
Submission 45%
Decision 40%
Pantoja's championship experience and submission prowess (0.8 subs per fight) present a massive challenge for the rising Van. While Van boasts impressive volume (8.39 SLPM), his 83% takedown defense hasn't been tested by an elite grappler like Pantoja. The champion's recent submission victories over...
GPT MISS
Alexandre Pantoja
67%win confidence
KO/TKO 10%
Submission 23%
Decision 67%
Pantoja's championship-level experience, grappling control, and proven durability give him the edge over Van's high-volume striking, especially over five rounds. While Van is the more active striker and has better defensive stats, Pantoja's ability to mix in takedowns and threaten with submissions i...
FINAL: Tatsuro Taira by KO/TKO Punches
Moreno WLLLW 252d out Taira LLWWW 588d out last 5
Brandon Moreno last fought 252 days ago
W
vs Steve Erceg · U-DEC2025-03-29
L
vs win · 2024-11-02
L
vs Brandon Royval · S-DEC2024-02-24
L
vs Alexandre Pantoja · S-DEC2023-07-08
W
vs Deiveson Figueiredo · KO/TKO2023-01-21
Tatsuro Taira last fought 588 days ago, long layoff
L
vs Brandon Royval · S-DEC2024-04-27
L
vs Brandon Royval · S-DEC2024-04-20
W
vs Alex Perez · KO/TKO2024-01-13
W
vs Carlos Hernandez · KO/TKO2023-12-09
W
vs Edgar Chairez · U-DEC2023-07-08
Claude HIT
Tatsuro Taira
65%win confidence
KO/TKO 20%
Submission 35%
Decision 45%
Taira's grappling heavy approach (2.73 takedowns, 1.6 submissions per fight) exploits Moreno's declining form and defensive vulnerabilities. Moreno has lost 3 of his last 5, showing decreased durability and wrestling defense (63% TDD). Taira's superior striking accuracy (60% vs 44%) and submission t...
GPT MISS
Brandon Moreno
70%win confidence
KO/TKO 10%
Submission 15%
Decision 75%
Moreno's superior defensive metrics, higher striking volume, and proven experience against elite competition give him an edge over the less-tested Taira. Although Taira is a more dangerous submission threat, Moreno's 63% takedown defense and strong scrambling ability should limit Taira's grappling s...
FINAL: Payton Talbott by U-DEC
Cejudo LLLWW 287d out Talbott WLWWW 161d out last 5
Henry Cejudo last fought 287 days ago
L
vs Song Yadong · U-DEC2025-02-22
L
vs Merab Dvalishvili · U-DEC2024-02-17
L
vs Aljamain Sterling · S-DEC2023-05-06
W
vs Dominick Cruz · KO/TKO2020-05-09
W
vs Marlon Moraes · KO/TKO2019-06-08
Payton Talbott last fought 161 days ago
W
vs Felipe Lima · U-DEC2025-06-28
L
vs Raoni Barcelos · U-DEC2025-01-18
W
vs Cameron Saaiman · KO/TKO2024-03-23
W
vs Yanis Ghemmouri · KO/TKO2024-01-27
W
vs Nick Aguirre · SUB2023-11-18
Claude HIT
Payton Talbott
68%win confidence
KO/TKO 25%
Submission 10%
Decision 65%
Talbott's significant physical advantages (6-inch height, 6-inch reach) combined with his explosive striking volume (8.38 SLPM vs Cejudo's 3.77) create a challenging matchup for the aging former champion. Cejudo's recent 1-3 skid against top competition, including decision losses to Song and Dvalish...
GPT HIT
Payton Talbott
70%win confidence
KO/TKO 18%
Submission 7%
Decision 75%
Talbott's extremely high striking output (8.38 SLpM) and 55% accuracy pose a major threat to the aging Cejudo, whose striking defense (60%) and volume are solid but lag behind Talbott's pace. Cejudo's wrestling edge is challenged by Talbott's 90% takedown defense, making it difficult for Cejudo to r...
Blachowicz LLWWL 259d out Guskov WWWL 322d out last 5
Jan Blachowicz last fought 259 days ago
L
vs Carlos Ulberg · U-DEC2025-03-22
L
vs Alex Pereira · S-DEC2023-07-29
W
vs Magomed Ankalaev · S-DEC2022-12-10
W
vs Aleksandar Rakic · KO/TKO2022-05-14
L
vs Glover Teixeira · SUB2021-10-30
Bogdan Guskov last fought 322 days ago
W
vs Billy Elekana · SUB Guillotine Choke2025-01-18
W
vs Ryan Spann · KO/TKO2024-04-27
W
vs Zac Pauga · KO/TKO2024-02-10
L
vs Volkan Oezdemir · SUB2023-09-02
Claude
Jan Blachowicz
72%win confidence
KO/TKO 25%
Submission 15%
Decision 60%
Blachowicz's veteran experience and superior grappling create a clear path to victory. While Guskov shows promise with recent KO wins, his 18-3 record comes largely from regional competition. Blachowicz's 2-inch reach advantage, proven UFC durability, and 50% takedown accuracy against Guskov's 66% t...
GPT
Jan Blachowicz
78%win confidence
KO/TKO 18%
Submission 12%
Decision 70%
Blachowicz holds key statistical advantages in both striking defense and grappling. His striking differential (+0.5) is superior to Guskov's (-0.57), and he maintains higher accuracy (50% vs 48%) and better defensive efficiency (53% vs 47%). Blachowicz's takedown ability and 68% takedown defense fur...
FINAL: Manuel Torres by KO/TKO Punch
Dawson WWWLW 322d out Torres WLWWW 252d out last 5
Grant Dawson last fought 322 days ago
W
vs Diego Ferreira · U-DEC2025-01-18
W
vs Rafa Garcia · KO/TKO2024-04-27
W
vs Joe Solecki · U-DEC2024-01-01
L
vs Bobby Green · KO/TKO2023-10-07
W
vs Damir Ismagulov · U-DEC2023-07-01
Manuel Torres last fought 252 days ago
W
vs Drew Dober · KO/TKO Punches2025-03-29
L
vs Ignacio Bahamondes · KO/TKO2024-03-30
W
vs Chris Duncan · SUB2024-02-24
W
vs Nikolas Motta · KO/TKO2023-06-17
W
vs Frank Camacho · KO/TKO2022-05-14
Claude MISS
Grant Dawson
68%win confidence
KO/TKO 20%
Submission 25%
Decision 55%
Dawson's wrestling-heavy approach (3.65 takedowns per fight) should neutralize Torres' dangerous striking (7.17 strikes per minute). Torres' recent TKO win over Drew Dober shows his power, but his 52% striking defense and vulnerability to grapplers (lost via submission to unranked opponent) plays in...
GPT HIT
Manuel Torres
65%win confidence
KO/TKO 54%
Submission 11%
Decision 35%
Torres holds a significant edge in striking volume, accuracy, and striking differential, while also boasting elite takedown defense (88%) that could neutralize Dawson's primary grappling path. Dawson's grappling and submission skills are strong, but Torres' offensive output and defensive metrics sug...
FINAL: Chris Duncan by SUB Anaconda Choke
McKinney WWLWW 161d out Duncan WWLWW 259d out last 5
Terrance McKinney last fought 161 days ago
W
vs Viacheslav Borshchev · SUB Guillotine Choke2025-06-28
W
vs Damir Hadzovic · KO/TKO Punches2025-02-01
L
vs Esteban Ribovics · KO/TKO2023-12-16
W
vs Brendon Marotte · KO/TKO2023-10-14
W
vs Mike Breeden · KO/TKO2023-08-12
Chris Duncan last fought 259 days ago
W
vs Jordan Vucenic · SUB Guillotine Choke2025-03-22
W
vs Bolaji Oki · SUB2024-04-06
L
vs Manuel Torres · SUB2024-02-24
W
vs Yanal Ashmouz · U-DEC2023-07-22
W
vs Omar Morales · S-DEC2023-03-18
Claude HIT
Chris Duncan
62%win confidence
KO/TKO 25%
Submission 40%
Decision 35%
Duncan's momentum (4-1 last 5 fights) and superior grappling efficiency make him the pick despite McKinney's explosiveness. McKinney's 50% win rate and recent knockout losses show defensive vulnerabilities, while Duncan's 80% win rate demonstrates consistency. Duncan's recent submission wins and McK...
GPT MISS
Terrance McKinney
68%win confidence
KO/TKO 18%
Submission 49%
Decision 33%
McKinney holds a clear grappling and submission threat advantage, with a much higher takedown defense (85% vs 33%) and a greater submission average (1.0 vs 0.3). While both have similar striking output and accuracy, Duncan absorbs more strikes (SApM 4.0 vs 2.63) and is vulnerable to being taken down...
FINAL: Maycee Barber by U-DEC
Barber WWWWW 637d out Silva WLWWW 112d out last 5
Maycee Barber last fought 637 days ago, long layoff
W
vs Katlyn Cerminara · U-DEC2024-03-09
W
vs Amanda Ribas · KO/TKO2023-06-24
W
vs Andrea Lee · S-DEC2023-03-25
W
vs Jessica Eye · U-DEC2022-07-02
W
vs Montana De La Rosa · U-DEC2022-04-23
Karine Silva last fought 112 days ago
W
vs Dione Barbosa · U-DEC2025-08-16
L
vs Viviane Araujo · 2024-11-16
W
vs Ariane da Silva · U-DEC2024-04-27
W
vs Maryna Moroz · SUB2023-08-19
W
vs Ketlen Souza · SUB2023-06-03
Claude MISS
Karine Silva
72%win confidence
KO/TKO 15%
Submission 55%
Decision 30%
Silva's elite grappling game (3.59 takedowns per fight, 72% accuracy, 2.2 submissions per fight) presents a nightmare matchup for Barber. While Barber has superior striking volume (4.7 vs 2.67 SLPM), Silva's 67-inch reach advantage and orthodox stance against Barber's switch stance creates openings ...
GPT HIT
Maycee Barber
68%win confidence
KO/TKO 18%
Submission 9%
Decision 73%
Barber's superior striking volume, accuracy, and defensive metrics should allow her to control the fight on the feet, while her takedown defense, though not elite, is likely enough to avoid Silva's primary submission threats. Silva's reliance on grappling is offset by Barber's ability to scramble an...
FINAL: Fares Ziam by KO/TKO Punches
Sadykhov WWWWW 168d out Ziam WWWWW 308d out last 5
Nazim Sadykhov last fought 168 days ago
W
vs Nikolas Motta · KO/TKO Punches2025-06-21
W
vs Ismael Bonfim · KO/TKO2025-02-15
W
vs Viacheslav Borshchev · M-DEC2023-11-11
W
vs Terrance McKinney · SUB2023-07-15
W
vs Evan Elder · KO/TKO2023-02-18
Fares Ziam last fought 308 days ago
W
vs Mike Davis · U-DEC2025-02-01
W
vs Matt Frevola · KO/TKO2024-04-06
W
vs Claudio Puelles · S-DEC2024-02-24
W
vs Jai Herbert · U-DEC2023-07-22
W
vs Michal Figlak · U-DEC2022-09-03
Claude HIT
Fares Ziam
65%win confidence
KO/TKO 25%
Submission 10%
Decision 65%
Ziam's significant physical advantages (6'1" vs 5'10", 75" vs 69" reach) combined with superior defensive striking (66% vs 48%) make him the favorite. While Sadykhov has momentum with 2 recent TKO wins, Ziam's 5-fight win streak includes quality opposition. The southpaw vs orthodox matchup favors Zi...
GPT HIT
Fares Ziam
62%win confidence
KO/TKO 11%
Submission 12%
Decision 77%
Ziam's superior striking defense (66% vs 48%), lower strikes absorbed per minute (1.66 vs 5.72), and significant reach advantage (-6 inch differential) indicate he can control range and avoid Sadykhov's pressure. While Sadykhov has performed better against a common opponent and is more aggressive, Z...
FINAL: Brunno Ferreira by U-DEC
Vettori LLLWL 140d out Ferreira WWWWL 140d out last 5
Marvin Vettori last fought 140 days ago
L
vs Brendan Allen · U-DEC2025-07-19
L
vs Roman Dolidze · U-DEC2025-03-15
L
vs Jared Cannonier · U-DEC2023-06-17
W
vs Roman Dolidze · U-DEC2023-03-18
L
vs Robert Whittaker · U-DEC2022-09-03
Brunno Ferreira last fought 140 days ago
W
vs Jackson McVey · SUB Armbar2025-07-19
W
vs Armen Petrosyan · SUB Armbar2025-03-08
W
vs Phil Hawes · KO/TKO2024-01-13
W
vs Dustin Stoltzfus · KO/TKO2024-01-06
L
vs Nursulton Ruziboev · KO/TKO2023-07-01
Claude MISS
Marvin Vettori
68%win confidence
KO/TKO 10%
Submission 15%
Decision 75%
Vettori's experience edge (28 UFC-level fights vs Ferreira's 5) and superior grappling credentials (1.43 takedowns per fight with 45% accuracy) should control this matchup. While Ferreira has explosive power (4 KO/TKOs in last 5), Vettori's granite chin and 56% strike defense have allowed him to go ...
GPT MISS
Marvin Vettori
67%win confidence
KO/TKO 13%
Submission 7%
Decision 80%
Vettori's durability, higher-level experience, and superior grappling defense should allow him to neutralize Ferreira's explosive but less proven striking. Ferreira's higher striking accuracy and finish rate are notable, but Vettori's volume, consistency, and ability to control the pace favor him ov...
FINAL: Jalin Turner by KO/TKO Punches
Barboza LLWWL 112d out Turner LLWLL 273d out last 5
Edson Barboza last fought 112 days ago
L
vs Drakkar Klose · U-DEC2025-08-16
L
vs Lerone Murphy · U-DEC2023-12-23
W
vs Sodiq Yusuff · U-DEC2023-10-14
W
vs Billy Quarantillo · KO/TKO2023-04-15
L
vs Bryce Mitchell · U-DEC2022-03-05
Jalin Turner last fought 273 days ago
L
vs Ignacio Bahamondes · SUB Triangle Choke2025-03-08
L
vs Renato Moicano · KO/TKO2024-04-13
W
vs Bobby Green · KO/TKO2023-12-02
L
vs Dan Hooker · S-DEC2023-07-08
L
vs Mateusz Gamrot · S-DEC2023-03-04
Claude HIT
Jalin Turner
68%win confidence
KO/TKO 25%
Submission 20%
Decision 55%
Turner's significant physical advantages (4" height, 2" reach) combined with his superior grappling threat (1.1 sub avg vs 0.1) create a difficult matchup for the aging Barboza. While Barboza has performed better against common opponents historically, Turner's recent losses have come against elite c...
GPT HIT
Jalin Turner
71%win confidence
KO/TKO 54%
Submission 17%
Decision 29%
Turner holds significant advantages in striking volume, accuracy, and finishing ability. While Barboza's experience and striking defense are notable, Turner's reach, higher strike differential, and potent submission game present stylistic challenges. Barboza's recent trend of absorbing more strikes ...
FINAL: Iwo Baraniewski by KO/TKO Punches
Baraniewski Aslan LW 287d out last 5
Iwo Baraniewski no UFC fights on record
Ibo Aslan last fought 287 days ago
L
vs Ion Cutelaba · SUB Arm Triangle2025-02-22
W
vs Anton Turkalj · KO/TKO2024-03-30
Claude HIT
Iwo Baraniewski
72%win confidence
KO/TKO 65%
Submission 5%
Decision 30%
Baraniewski's explosive striking volume (12 SLPM vs 8.34) and superior accuracy (66% vs 50%) create a significant offensive advantage. His undefeated 6-0 record with three consecutive TKO victories demonstrates finishing ability. Aslan's recent 1-2 skid including losses to Elekana and Cutelaba sugge...
GPT MISS
Ibo Aslan
74%win confidence
KO/TKO 22%
Submission 3%
Decision 75%
Ibo Aslan demonstrates significantly better defensive metrics (64% striking defense, 100% takedown defense) and absorbs fewer strikes per minute compared to Baraniewski, who has a porous 33% striking defense and absorbs double the strikes he lands. While Baraniewski offers higher striking volume and...
FINAL: Mansur Abdul-Malik by SUB Guillotine Choke
Abdul-Malik WL 287d out Trocoli L 686d out last 5
Mansur Abdul-Malik last fought 287 days ago
W
vs Nick Klein · KO/TKO Punches2025-02-22
L
vs win · 2024-11-09
Antonio Trocoli last fought 686 days ago, long layoff
L
vs Shara Magomedov · KO/TKO2024-01-20
Claude HIT
Mansur Abdul-Malik
75%win confidence
KO/TKO 80%
Submission 5%
Decision 15%
Abdul-Malik holds overwhelming striking advantages with 6.61 SLPM vs Trocoli's anemic 1.28 output. Trocoli's abysmal 24% striking defense combined with two consecutive first-round KO losses creates a perfect storm for another early finish. Despite Trocoli's 3-inch height advantage, his -4.82 strikin...
GPT HIT
Mansur Abdul-Malik
78%win confidence
KO/TKO 27%
Submission 5%
Decision 68%
Abdul-Malik's high striking output (6.61 SLpM) and strong accuracy (54%) present a significant advantage over Trocoli, whose striking defense is extremely low (24%) and who absorbs a high volume of strikes (6.1 SApM). Trocoli's grappling output is limited, with low takedown accuracy (12%) and no evi...
FINAL: Mairon Santos by KO/TKO Punches
Naimov WWWLW 168d out Santos WWW 203d out last 5
Muhammad Naimov last fought 168 days ago
W
vs Bogdan Grad · U-DEC2025-06-21
W
vs Kaan Ofli · U-DEC2025-02-01
W
vs Erik Silva · KO/TKO2024-02-24
L
vs Felipe Lima · SUB2024-01-20
W
vs Nathaniel Wood · U-DEC2023-10-21
Mairon Santos last fought 203 days ago
W
vs Sodiq Yusuff · U-DEC2025-05-17
W
vs Francis Marshall · S-DEC2025-03-08
W
vs Kaan Ofli · KO/TKO2024-03-16
Claude HIT
Mairon Santos
75%win confidence
KO/TKO 55%
Submission 10%
Decision 35%
This is a rematch where Santos has already shown he can finish Naimov via TKO. The Tapology data reveals they've fought 3 times recently, with Santos winning 2 of 3 including a TKO victory. Santos' 17-1 record and 5-fight win streak against quality opposition (Yusuff, Marshall) demonstrates elite mo...
GPT HIT
Mairon Santos
74%win confidence
KO/TKO 19%
Submission 3%
Decision 78%
Santos displays a significant edge in striking volume, accuracy, and defensive metrics. Naimov absorbs more strikes than he lands and has struggled with defensive efficiency. While Naimov's wrestling could be a factor, Santos' superior striking differential and defensive acumen give him the advantag...