November 15, 2025
UFC 322: Della Maddalena vs. Makhachev
Card complete. GPT 9/12 (75%) · Claude 6/12 (50%)
All results
Both models agree 10 of 13 fights
Islam Makhachev over Jack Della Maddalena
Claude 75%
GPT 77%
GPT 77%
Cody Haddon over Malcolm Wellmaker
Both call Decision
Claude 72%
GPT 77%
GPT 77%
Angela Hill over Fatima Kline
Both call Decision
Claude 72%
GPT 74%
GPT 74%
Leon Edwards over Carlos Prates
Both call Decision
Claude 68%
GPT 76%
GPT 76%
Bo Nickal over Rodolfo Vieira
Claude 68%
GPT 75%
GPT 75%
Erin Blanchfield over Tracy Cortez
Both call Decision
Claude 68%
GPT 75%
GPT 75%
Baisangur Susurkaev over Eric McConico
Claude 65%
GPT 77%
GPT 77%
Chepe Mariscal over Pat Sabatini
Both call Decision
Claude 68%
GPT 69%
GPT 69%
Gregory Rodrigues over Roman Kopylov
Claude 65%
GPT 70%
GPT 70%
Michael Morales over Sean Brady
Both call Decision
Claude 58%
GPT 68%
GPT 68%
Double locks: both at 75% or higher 1 fight
Islam Makhachev over Jack Della Maddalena
Claude 75%
GPT 77%
GPT 77%
Build your own list 10 match
Islam Makhachev over Jack Della Maddalena
Claude 75%
GPT 77%
GPT 77%
Cody Haddon over Malcolm Wellmaker
Both call Decision
Claude 72%
GPT 77%
GPT 77%
Angela Hill over Fatima Kline
Both call Decision
Claude 72%
GPT 74%
GPT 74%
Leon Edwards over Carlos Prates
Both call Decision
Claude 68%
GPT 76%
GPT 76%
Bo Nickal over Rodolfo Vieira
Claude 68%
GPT 75%
GPT 75%
Erin Blanchfield over Tracy Cortez
Both call Decision
Claude 68%
GPT 75%
GPT 75%
Baisangur Susurkaev over Eric McConico
Claude 65%
GPT 77%
GPT 77%
Chepe Mariscal over Pat Sabatini
Both call Decision
Claude 68%
GPT 69%
GPT 69%
Gregory Rodrigues over Roman Kopylov
Claude 65%
GPT 70%
GPT 70%
Michael Morales over Sean Brady
Both call Decision
Claude 58%
GPT 68%
GPT 68%
Win confidence is the model's probability that its pick wins: 55 to 64 is a shrug, 65 to 74 is confident, 75 and up is the model betting its reputation.
KO/TKO, Submission, Decision is how the model splits the ways the fight ends, out of 100.
Odds are the sportsbook moneyline with the bookmaker margin removed, so the two percentages sum to 100. When a model's confidence beats the market's implied number, that gap is the value.
Elo is an opponent adjusted rating built from every UFC fight since 1994. Click any Elo number on the card for the full explanation, including what the star means.
FINAL: Islam Makhachev by U-DEC
Maddalena WWWWW 189d out Makhachev WWWWW 301d out last 5
Jack Della Maddalena last fought 189 days ago
W
vs Belal Muhammad · U-DEC2025-05-10
W
vs Gilbert Burns · KO/TKO2024-03-09
W
vs Kevin Holland · S-DEC2023-09-16
W
vs Bassil Hafez · S-DEC2023-07-15
W
vs Randy Brown · SUB2023-02-11
Islam Makhachev last fought 301 days ago
W
vs Renato Moicano · SUB D'Arce Choke2025-01-18
W
vs Dustin Poirier · SUB2024-01-01
W
vs Alexander Volkanovski · KO/TKO2023-10-21
W
vs Alexander Volkanovski · U-DEC2023-02-11
W
vs Charles Oliveira · SUB2022-10-22
Claude HIT
Islam Makhachev
75%win confidence
KO/TKO 15%
Submission 55%
Decision 30%
This is an unusual matchup with Makhachev moving up to welterweight. Despite the weight class change, Makhachev's elite grappling and submission game should overwhelm Della Maddalena. Jack has shown vulnerability to grapplers (70% TDD) and Makhachev averages 3.19 takedowns per fight with a 53% accur...
GPT HIT
Islam Makhachev
77%win confidence
KO/TKO 10%
Submission 23%
Decision 67%
Islam Makhachev's elite grappling, superior takedown average (3.19 per fight), and high takedown accuracy (53%) present significant stylistic challenges for Jack Della Maddalena, who defends takedowns at just 70% and has minimal offensive wrestling. While Maddalena's striking output is high (6.74 SL...
FINAL: Valentina Shevchenko by U-DEC
Shevchenko WWLLW 189d out Weili WWWWW 280d out last 5
Valentina Shevchenko last fought 189 days ago
W
vs Manon Fiorot · U-DEC2025-05-10
W
vs Alexa Grasso · U-DEC2024-03-30
L
vs Alexa Grasso · S-DEC2023-09-16
L
vs Alexa Grasso · SUB2023-03-04
W
vs Taila Santos · S-DEC2022-06-11
Zhang Weili last fought 280 days ago
W
vs Tatiana Suarez · U-DEC2025-02-08
W
vs Yan Xiaonan · U-DEC2024-04-13
W
vs Amanda Lemos · U-DEC2023-08-19
W
vs Carla Esparza · SUB2022-11-12
W
vs Joanna Jedrzejczyk · KO/TKO2022-06-11
Claude MISS
Zhang Weili
65%win confidence
KO/TKO 25%
Submission 15%
Decision 60%
Zhang Weili moving up to flyweight presents an intriguing matchup. While Shevchenko has the experience advantage at 125lbs, Zhang's superior striking volume (5.66 vs 3.16 SLPM) and recent momentum give her the edge. Both fighters went to decisions with common opponents Andrade and Joanna, but Zhang ...
GPT HIT
Valentina Shevchenko
62%win confidence
KO/TKO 15%
Submission 10%
Decision 75%
Shevchenko's superior defensive metrics and efficient striking, combined with a significant edge in takedown defense and tactical experience, should allow her to neutralize Zhang's high-volume offense and dictate the pace through counter-striking and positional control. Zhang's offensive output and ...
FINAL: Michael Morales by KO/TKO Punches
Brady WWWLW 238d out Morales WWWWW 182d out last 5
Sean Brady last fought 238 days ago
W
vs Leon Edwards · SUB Guillotine Choke2025-03-22
W
vs Gilbert Burns · U-DEC2024-03-23
W
vs Kelvin Gastelum · SUB2023-12-02
L
vs Belal Muhammad · KO/TKO2022-10-22
W
vs Michael Chiesa · U-DEC2021-11-20
Michael Morales last fought 182 days ago
W
vs Gilbert Burns · KO/TKO Punches2025-05-17
W
vs Neil Magny · KO/TKO2024-03-16
W
vs Jake Matthews · U-DEC2023-11-18
W
vs Max Griffin · U-DEC2023-07-01
W
vs Adam Fugitt · KO/TKO2022-07-30
Claude HIT
Michael Morales
58%win confidence
KO/TKO 30%
Submission 20%
Decision 50%
This is a classic grappler vs striker matchup with Morales holding significant physical advantages. His 7-inch reach advantage and superior striking defense (92% TDD) will be crucial in keeping Brady at distance. While Brady has the grappling edge (3.49 TDAvg), Morales' 92% takedown defense is elite...
GPT HIT
Michael Morales
68%win confidence
KO/TKO 18%
Submission 12%
Decision 70%
Morales holds significant advantages in striking volume, reach, and takedown defense, making it difficult for Brady to implement his grappling game. While Brady is more accurate and defensively sound, Morales' pace and physicality should allow him to keep the fight standing and outpoint Brady over t...
FINAL: Carlos Prates by KO/TKO Punch
Edwards LLWWW 238d out Prates WLLWW 91d out last 5
Leon Edwards last fought 238 days ago
L
vs Sean Brady · SUB Guillotine Choke2025-03-22
L
vs Belal Muhammad · U-DEC2024-02-17
W
vs Colby Covington · U-DEC2023-12-16
W
vs Kamaru Usman · M-DEC2023-03-18
W
vs Kamaru Usman · KO/TKO2022-08-20
Carlos Prates last fought 91 days ago
W
vs Geoff Neal · KO/TKO Spinning Back Elbow2025-08-16
L
vs Ian Machado Garry · U-DEC2025-04-26
L
vs win · 2024-11-09
W
vs Li Jingliang · KO/TKO2024-03-09
W
vs Trevin Giles · KO/TKO2024-02-10
Claude MISS
Leon Edwards
68%win confidence
KO/TKO 25%
Submission 10%
Decision 65%
Edwards' championship-level experience and technical striking should overcome Prates' aggressive style. While Prates has shown devastating knockout power (4 straight KO/TKO wins before his recent loss), Edwards' superior defensive metrics (53% striking defense vs 48%) and southpaw stance will create...
GPT MISS
Leon Edwards
76%win confidence
KO/TKO 18%
Submission 8%
Decision 74%
Edwards' superior defensive metrics, striking differential, and well-roundedness give him an edge against Prates, who absorbs significantly more strikes than he lands and has a negative striking differential. Edwards' experience, composure, and ability to mix in grappling should allow him to neutral...
FINAL: Benoit Saint Denis by KO/TKO Punch
Dariush WLLWW 140d out Denis WWLLW 70d out last 5
Beneil Dariush last fought 140 days ago
W
vs Renato Moicano · U-DEC2025-06-28
L
vs Arman Tsarukyan · KO/TKO2023-12-02
L
vs Charles Oliveira · KO/TKO2023-06-10
W
vs Mateusz Gamrot · U-DEC2022-10-22
W
vs Tony Ferguson · U-DEC2021-05-15
Benoit Saint Denis last fought 70 days ago
W
vs Mauricio Ruffy · SUB Rear Naked Choke2025-09-06
W
vs Kyle Prepolec · SUB Arm Triangle2025-05-10
L
vs Renato Moicano · KO/TKO2024-04-06
L
vs Dustin Poirier · KO/TKO2024-03-09
W
vs Matt Frevola · KO/TKO2023-11-11
Claude MISS
Beneil Dariush
72%win confidence
KO/TKO 25%
Submission 15%
Decision 60%
Dariush's superior defensive metrics (57% striking defense vs BSD's 41%) and exceptional takedown defense (80% vs BSD's 68%) will neutralize Saint Denis' aggressive volume approach. BSD's recent 3-fight KO loss streak shows significant durability issues, while Dariush's only recent losses came again...
GPT HIT
Benoit Saint Denis
65%win confidence
KO/TKO 18%
Submission 44%
Decision 38%
Saint Denis brings high offensive output in both striking and grappling, with a notable edge in submission attempts and takedown activity. Dariush has superior defense and experience, but his recent durability issues and Saint Denis's relentless pace favor the Frenchman's finishing upside, especiall...
FINAL: Bo Nickal by KO/TKO Kick
Nickal LWWWW 196d out Vieira LWWLW 273d out last 5
Bo Nickal last fought 196 days ago
L
vs Reinier de Ridder · KO/TKO Knee2025-05-03
W
vs Paul Craig · 2024-11-16
W
vs Cody Brundage · SUB2024-04-13
W
vs Val Woodburn · KO/TKO2023-07-08
W
vs Jamie Pickett · SUB2023-03-04
Rodolfo Vieira last fought 273 days ago
L
vs Andre Petroski · U-DEC2025-02-15
W
vs Armen Petrosyan · SUB2024-02-10
W
vs Cody Brundage · SUB2023-04-29
L
vs Chris Curtis · U-DEC2022-06-25
W
vs Dustin Stoltzfus · SUB2021-07-17
Claude HIT
Bo Nickal
68%win confidence
KO/TKO 45%
Submission 35%
Decision 20%
While both are elite grapplers, Nickal's striking defense (70%) significantly outclasses Vieira's (49%), and his 3-inch reach advantage will be crucial. Vieira's 30% takedown accuracy is concerning against Nickal's wrestling pedigree. The community 50-50 split undervalues Nickal's superior athletici...
GPT HIT
Bo Nickal
75%win confidence
KO/TKO 5%
Submission 65%
Decision 30%
Nickal's elite wrestling, control, and submission output (7.5 subs per fight) are likely to neutralize Vieira's BJJ. Nickal's takedown volume and grappling athleticism should allow him to dictate positions. Vieira's striking defense (49%) and negative strike differential (-1.41) make him vulnerable ...
FINAL: Gregory Rodrigues by U-DEC
Kopylov LWLWW 119d out Rodrigues WLWWW 140d out last 5
Roman Kopylov last fought 119 days ago
L
vs Paulo Costa · U-DEC2025-07-19
W
vs Chris Curtis · KO/TKO Kick2025-01-11
L
vs Anthony Hernandez · SUB2024-02-17
W
vs Cesar Almeida · S-DEC2024-01-01
W
vs Josh Fremd · KO/TKO2023-09-16
Gregory Rodrigues last fought 140 days ago
W
vs Jack Hermansson · KO/TKO Punch2025-06-28
L
vs Jared Cannonier · KO/TKO Punches2025-02-15
W
vs Christian Leroy Duncan · U-DEC2024-02-17
W
vs Brad Tavares · KO/TKO2024-02-10
W
vs Denis Tiuliulin · KO/TKO2023-08-19
Claude HIT
Gregory Rodrigues
65%win confidence
KO/TKO 35%
Submission 10%
Decision 55%
Rodrigues' superior striking volume (5.52 vs 4.74 SLPM), better accuracy (56% vs 50%), and positive striking differential (+0.83 vs -0.34) give him clear advantages in the standup. His 100% takedown defense will nullify Kopylov's wrestling attempts. Rodrigues is on a 4-fight win streak showing excel...
GPT HIT
Gregory Rodrigues
70%win confidence
KO/TKO 55%
Submission 10%
Decision 35%
Rodrigues holds a statistical edge in striking accuracy, volume, and striking differential, while also boasting superior grappling metrics and an impeccable takedown defense. Kopylov is hittable and has a negative strike differential, making him vulnerable to Rodrigues's power and output. Given Rodr...
FINAL: Erin Blanchfield by SUB Rear Naked Choke
Blanchfield LLWWW 378d out Cortez WLWWW 140d out last 5
Erin Blanchfield last fought 378 days ago
L
vs win · 2024-11-02
L
vs Manon Fiorot · U-DEC2024-03-30
W
vs Taila Santos · U-DEC2023-08-26
W
vs Jessica Andrade · SUB2023-02-18
W
vs Molly McCann · SUB2022-11-12
Tracy Cortez last fought 140 days ago
W
vs Viviane Araujo · U-DEC2025-06-28
L
vs Rose Namajunas · U-DEC2024-02-03
W
vs Jasmine Jasudavicius · U-DEC2023-09-16
W
vs Melissa Gatto · U-DEC2022-05-07
W
vs Justine Kish · S-DEC2021-04-17
Claude HIT
Erin Blanchfield
68%win confidence
KO/TKO 15%
Submission 25%
Decision 60%
Blanchfield's superior striking volume (5.47 vs 3.72 SLPM) and better striking differential (+1.13 vs +0.70) give her a significant edge in exchanges. Her 81% takedown defense should neutralize Cortez's wrestling, while her submission threat (1.0 vs 0.3 per fight) creates constant danger on the grou...
GPT HIT
Erin Blanchfield
75%win confidence
KO/TKO 5%
Submission 20%
Decision 75%
Blanchfield holds significant statistical advantages in striking volume, defensive efficiency, and takedown defense. While Cortez is a capable grappler with solid accuracy, Blanchfield's higher output, strong takedown defense (81% vs. 62%), and submission threat make her more likely to control the f...
Wellmaker WW 154d out Haddon W 567d out last 5
Malcolm Wellmaker last fought 154 days ago
W
vs Kris Moutinho · KO/TKO Punch2025-06-14
W
vs Cameron Saaiman · KO/TKO Punch2025-04-26
Cody Haddon last fought 567 days ago, long layoff
W
vs Dan Argueta · U-DEC2024-04-27
Claude
Cody Haddon
72%win confidence
KO/TKO 20%
Submission 15%
Decision 65%
Haddon's massive striking differential advantage (+5.73 vs +0.40) and superior defensive metrics (64% vs 54% striking defense) indicate he'll dominate the standup. His 2.48 takedowns per fight against Wellmaker's 0 attempts shows a clear grappling path to victory. Haddon's perfect 2-0 UFC record dem...
GPT
Cody Haddon
77%win confidence
KO/TKO 14%
Submission 18%
Decision 68%
Haddon demonstrates significantly superior strike differential (+5.73 vs +0.40), absorbs much less damage per minute (3.47 vs 7.65 SApM), and shows a strong grappling threat (2.48 takedowns per fight, 0.8 subs per fight). Wellmaker relies heavily on high-volume, accurate striking, but his defensive ...
FINAL: Kyle Daukaus by SUB D'Arce Choke
Daukaus WLLWL 84d out Meerschaert LLWWL 91d out last 5
Kyle Daukaus last fought 84 days ago
W
vs Michel Pereira · KO/TKO Elbows2025-08-23
L
vs Eryk Anders · KO/TKO2022-12-03
L
vs Roman Dolidze · KO/TKO2022-06-18
W
vs Jamie Pickett · SUB2022-02-19
L
vs Kevin Holland · Overturned2021-10-02
Gerald Meerschaert last fought 91 days ago
L
vs Michal Oleksiejczuk · KO/TKO Punches2025-08-16
L
vs Brad Tavares · U-DEC2025-04-05
W
vs Bryan Barberena · SUB2024-03-16
W
vs Edmen Shahbazyan · SUB2024-03-16
L
vs Andre Petroski · S-DEC2023-08-19
Claude MISS
Gerald Meerschaert
74%win confidence
KO/TKO 15%
Submission 55%
Decision 30%
This southpaw vs southpaw grappling battle heavily favors Meerschaert's experience and recent form. His 3-fight submission streak shows peak grappling form, while Daukaus has been finished in 2 of his last 3 fights by strikes. Against common opponents, both went 1-2, but Meerschaert's submission of ...
GPT HIT
Kyle Daukaus
63%win confidence
KO/TKO 8%
Submission 22%
Decision 70%
Daukaus has superior takedown defense (82% vs 42%) and striking accuracy (52% vs 45%), which should allow him to control the range and avoid Meerschaert's submission threats. Both are submission-oriented grapplers, but Daukaus is less likely to be taken down and has a positive striking differential,...
FINAL: Pat Sabatini by U-DEC
Sabatini WWLWL 224d out Mariscal WWWWW 259d out last 5
Pat Sabatini last fought 224 days ago
W
vs Joanderson Brito · U-DEC2025-04-05
W
vs Jonathan Pearce · SUB2024-04-27
L
vs Diego Lopes · KO/TKO2023-11-11
W
vs Lucas Almeida · SUB2023-06-17
L
vs Damon Jackson · KO/TKO2022-09-17
Chepe Mariscal last fought 259 days ago
W
vs Ricardo Ramos · U-DEC2025-03-01
W
vs Morgan Charriere · S-DEC2024-04-06
W
vs Damon Jackson · U-DEC2024-03-02
W
vs Jack Jenkins · KO/TKO2023-09-09
W
vs Trevor Peek · U-DEC2023-06-24
Claude MISS
Chepe Mariscal
68%win confidence
KO/TKO 25%
Submission 15%
Decision 60%
Mariscal's superior striking volume (4.75 vs 1.94 SLPM) and better striking differential (+1.51 vs +0.47) give him a clear edge in the standup. While Sabatini is the superior grappler with 2.0 submissions per fight, Mariscal's 72% takedown defense and perfect 5-0 recent record suggest he can keep th...
GPT MISS
Chepe Mariscal
69%win confidence
KO/TKO 18%
Submission 11%
Decision 71%
Mariscal's significantly higher striking volume (4.75 SLpM vs. 1.94), effective striking differential (+1.51 vs. +0.47), and superior takedown defense (72% vs. 50%) suggest he can keep the fight standing and outwork Sabatini over three rounds. Sabatini's submission threat is notable, but Mariscal's ...
FINAL: Fatima Kline by U-DEC
Hill LWLWW 98d out Kline WWL 126d out last 5
Angela Hill last fought 98 days ago
L
vs Iasmin Lucindo · U-DEC2025-08-09
W
vs Ketlen Souza · S-DEC2025-02-15
L
vs Tabatha Ricci · U-DEC2024-03-16
W
vs Luana Pinheiro · SUB2023-12-23
W
vs Denise Gomes · U-DEC2023-11-04
Fatima Kline last fought 126 days ago
W
vs Melissa Martinez · KO/TKO Kick2025-07-12
W
vs Viktoriia Dudakova · KO/TKO Elbows2025-01-11
L
vs Jasmine Jasudavicius · U-DEC2024-02-03
Claude MISS
Angela Hill
72%win confidence
KO/TKO 20%
Submission 15%
Decision 65%
Hill's massive experience advantage (28 UFC fights vs 2) and superior striking metrics make her the clear favorite. She lands 5.46 strikes per minute compared to Kline's 2.60, while maintaining better defense (61% vs 55%). Kline is moving down from flyweight after two losses and faces a significant ...
GPT MISS
Angela Hill
74%win confidence
KO/TKO 8%
Submission 2%
Decision 90%
Angela Hill's superior striking volume, accuracy, and defensive metrics give her a clear edge over the less experienced Fatima Kline. While Kline has shown impressive takedown accuracy, her low output, poor takedown defense, and lack of finishing ability make it unlikely she can control Hill for ext...
FINAL: Baisangur Susurkaev by KO/TKO Punch
Susurkaev W 91d out McConico WL 98d out last 5
Baisangur Susurkaev last fought 91 days ago
W
vs Eric Nolan · SUB Rear Naked Choke2025-08-16
Eric McConico last fought 98 days ago
W
vs Cody Brundage · S-DEC2025-08-09
L
vs Nursulton Ruziboev · KO/TKO Punch2025-02-22
Claude HIT
Baisangur Susurkaev
65%win confidence
KO/TKO 45%
Submission 10%
Decision 45%
While McConico has no UFC stats available, Susurkaev's profile shows promise with 3.26 SLPM and 58% accuracy. The orthodox vs southpaw matchup typically favors the orthodox fighter's straight right hand. Susurkaev's 100% takedown defense and positive striking differential (+0.98) suggest solid funda...
GPT HIT
Baisangur Susurkaev
77%win confidence
KO/TKO 18%
Submission 7%
Decision 75%
Baisangur Susurkaev displays measurable UFC-level output with above-average striking accuracy (58%) and a positive strike differential (+0.98). His defensive metrics are average, but he has demonstrated perfect takedown defense in limited data. Eric McConico has no recorded UFC stats, indicating ine...