October 25, 2025
UFC 321: Aspinall vs. Gane
Card complete. GPT 3/10 (30%) · Claude 4/10 (40%)
All results
Both models agree 7 of 12 fights
Umar Nurmagomedov over Mario Bautista
Both call Decision
Claude 83%
GPT 80%
GPT 80%
Jaqueline Amorim over Mizuki
Both call Submission
Claude 78%
GPT 72%
GPT 72%
Tom Aspinall over Ciryl Gane
Both call KO/TKO
Claude 72%
GPT 77%
GPT 77%
Virna Jandiroba over Mackenzie Dern
Both call Decision
Claude 78%
GPT 68%
GPT 68%
Jailton Almeida over Alexander Volkov
Both call Submission
Claude 72%
GPT 70%
GPT 70%
Abdul-Kareem Al-Selwady over Matheus Camilo
Both call Decision
Claude 62%
GPT 74%
GPT 74%
Azat Maksum over Mitch Raposo
Both call Decision
Claude 62%
GPT 62%
GPT 62%
Double locks: both at 75% or higher 1 fight
Umar Nurmagomedov over Mario Bautista
Both call Decision
Claude 83%
GPT 80%
GPT 80%
Build your own list 7 match
Umar Nurmagomedov over Mario Bautista
Both call Decision
Claude 83%
GPT 80%
GPT 80%
Jaqueline Amorim over Mizuki
Both call Submission
Claude 78%
GPT 72%
GPT 72%
Tom Aspinall over Ciryl Gane
Both call KO/TKO
Claude 72%
GPT 77%
GPT 77%
Virna Jandiroba over Mackenzie Dern
Both call Decision
Claude 78%
GPT 68%
GPT 68%
Jailton Almeida over Alexander Volkov
Both call Submission
Claude 72%
GPT 70%
GPT 70%
Abdul-Kareem Al-Selwady over Matheus Camilo
Both call Decision
Claude 62%
GPT 74%
GPT 74%
Azat Maksum over Mitch Raposo
Both call Decision
Claude 62%
GPT 62%
GPT 62%
Win confidence is the model's probability that its pick wins: 55 to 64 is a shrug, 65 to 74 is confident, 75 and up is the model betting its reputation.
KO/TKO, Submission, Decision is how the model splits the ways the fight ends, out of 100.
Odds are the sportsbook moneyline with the bookmaker margin removed, so the two percentages sum to 100. When a model's confidence beats the market's implied number, that gap is the value.
Elo is an opponent adjusted rating built from every UFC fight since 1994. Click any Elo number on the card for the full explanation, including what the star means.
Aspinall WWWLW 615d out Gane WWLWL 321d out last 5
Tom Aspinall last fought 615 days ago, long layoff
W
vs Curtis Blaydes · KO/TKO2024-02-17
W
vs Sergei Pavlovich · KO/TKO2023-11-11
W
vs Marcin Tybura · KO/TKO2023-07-22
L
vs Curtis Blaydes · KO/TKO2022-07-23
W
vs Alexander Volkov · SUB2022-03-19
Ciryl Gane last fought 321 days ago
W
vs Alexander Volkov · S-DEC2024-12-07
W
vs Serghei Spivac · KO/TKO2023-09-02
L
vs Jon Jones · SUB2023-03-04
W
vs Tai Tuivasa · KO/TKO2022-09-03
L
vs Francis Ngannou · U-DEC2022-01-22
Claude
Tom Aspinall
72%win confidence
KO/TKO 65%
Submission 10%
Decision 25%
Aspinall's devastating power and finishing instinct give him a significant edge. His 8.07 SLPM vs Gane's 5.49 shows superior output, while maintaining 67% accuracy. Aspinall has finished 4 straight fights by KO/TKO, including quick finishes of Volkov (submission) and Spivac (KO). Gane's technical st...
GPT
Tom Aspinall
77%win confidence
KO/TKO 60%
Submission 17%
Decision 23%
Aspinall's elite finishing rate, superior striking volume, and perfect grappling stats make him a stylistic nightmare for Gane, whose historically weak takedown defense and lack of ground threat have been exploited at the highest levels. Aspinall's striking differential and accuracy significantly su...
FINAL: Mackenzie Dern by U-DEC
Jandiroba WWWWW 196d out Dern WWLLW 286d out last 5
Virna Jandiroba last fought 196 days ago
W
vs Yan Xiaonan · U-DEC2025-04-12
W
vs Loopy Godinez · U-DEC2024-03-30
W
vs Amanda Lemos · SUB2024-02-10
W
vs Marina Rodriguez · U-DEC2023-05-06
W
vs Angela Hill · U-DEC2022-05-14
Mackenzie Dern last fought 286 days ago
W
vs Amanda Ribas · SUB Armbar2025-01-11
W
vs Loopy Godinez · U-DEC2024-02-24
L
vs Amanda Lemos · U-DEC2024-02-17
L
vs Jessica Andrade · KO/TKO2023-11-11
W
vs Angela Hill · U-DEC2023-05-20
Claude MISS
Virna Jandiroba
78%win confidence
KO/TKO 5%
Submission 35%
Decision 60%
Jandiroba's superior common opponent record (6-1 vs Dern's 2-5) reveals a significant skill gap. She submitted Amanda Lemos three times while Dern lost to her. Jandiroba's 73% takedown defense vs Dern's 30% is crucial in this grappling matchup. While both are submission specialists, Jandiroba's bett...
GPT MISS
Virna Jandiroba
68%win confidence
KO/TKO 5%
Submission 20%
Decision 75%
Jandiroba holds a clear edge in grappling control and takedown defense, while Dern struggles to secure takedowns (16% accuracy) and often absorbs more strikes than she lands. Jandiroba's superior defensive metrics (57% striking defense, 73% takedown defense) and her track record against common oppon...
FINAL: Umar Nurmagomedov by U-DEC
Nurmagomedov LWWWW 279d out Bautista WWWWW 140d out last 5
Umar Nurmagomedov last fought 279 days ago
L
vs Merab Dvalishvili · U-DEC2025-01-18
W
vs Bekzat Almakhan · U-DEC2024-03-02
W
vs Cory Sandhagen · U-DEC2024-02-24
W
vs Raoni Barcelos · KO/TKO2023-01-14
W
vs Nate Maness · U-DEC2022-06-25
Mario Bautista last fought 140 days ago
W
vs Patchy Mix · U-DEC2025-06-07
W
vs Jose Aldo · S-DEC2024-04-13
W
vs Ricky Simon · U-DEC2024-01-13
W
vs Da'Mon Blackshear · U-DEC2023-08-19
W
vs Guido Cannetti · SUB2023-03-11
Claude HIT
Umar Nurmagomedov
83%win confidence
KO/TKO 15%
Submission 20%
Decision 65%
Nurmagomedov's perfect 100% win rate and dominant common opponent performances make him a heavy favorite. He's 4-0 against shared opponents while Bautista is 1-3, including Umar decisioning Sandhagen while Bautista was submitted. Umar's 100% takedown defense and 3.98 takedowns per fight will dominat...
GPT HIT
Umar Nurmagomedov
80%win confidence
KO/TKO 10%
Submission 20%
Decision 70%
Umar Nurmagomedov holds a clear statistical edge in striking defense, accuracy, and grappling effectiveness. His 100% takedown defense nullifies Bautista's wrestling threat, and Umar's superior strike differential and accuracy, combined with his ability to control pace and distance, make him the lik...
FINAL: Alexander Volkov by S-DEC
Volkov LWWWW 321d out Almeida WLWWW 279d out last 5
Alexander Volkov last fought 321 days ago
L
vs Ciryl Gane · S-DEC2024-12-07
W
vs Sergei Pavlovich · U-DEC2024-01-20
W
vs Tai Tuivasa · SUB2023-09-09
W
vs Alexandr Romanov · KO/TKO2023-03-11
W
vs Jairzinho Rozenstruik · KO/TKO2022-06-04
Jailton Almeida last fought 279 days ago
W
vs Serghei Spivac · KO/TKO Punches2025-01-18
L
vs Curtis Blaydes · KO/TKO2024-03-09
W
vs Alexandr Romanov · SUB2024-01-01
W
vs Derrick Lewis · U-DEC2023-11-04
W
vs Jairzinho Rozenstruik · SUB2023-05-13
Claude MISS
Jailton Almeida
72%win confidence
KO/TKO 20%
Submission 55%
Decision 25%
Almeida's elite grappling (6.85 TD/15min, 59% accuracy) poses severe problems for Volkov's 73% TDD. Volkov's 4-inch height advantage becomes a liability in grappling exchanges. Almeida's 2.6 submissions per fight and recent submission victories over Romanov and Rozenstruik demonstrate his ability to...
GPT MISS
Jailton Almeida
70%win confidence
KO/TKO 10%
Submission 60%
Decision 30%
Almeida's elite grappling and takedown volume (6.85 per fight) present a stylistic challenge for Volkov, whose takedown defense (73%) is solid but has been exploited by strong wrestlers. Almeida's submission average (2.6 per fight) and finishing ability on the ground are significantly higher, while ...
FINAL: Azamat Murzakanov by KO/TKO Punch
Rakic LLWWL 560d out Murzakanov WLWWW 140d out last 5
Aleksandar Rakic last fought 560 days ago, long layoff
L
vs Jiri Prochazka · KO/TKO2024-04-13
L
vs Jan Blachowicz · KO/TKO2022-05-14
W
vs Thiago Santos · U-DEC2021-03-06
W
vs Anthony Smith · U-DEC2020-08-29
L
vs Volkan Oezdemir · S-DEC2019-12-21
Azamat Murzakanov last fought 140 days ago
W
vs Brendson Ribeiro · KO/TKO Punches2025-06-07
L
vs Nikita Krylov · 2024-11-16
W
vs Alonzo Menifield · KO/TKO2024-02-24
W
vs Dustin Jacoby · U-DEC2023-04-15
W
vs Devin Clark · KO/TKO2022-08-13
Claude HIT
Azamat Murzakanov
62%win confidence
KO/TKO 48%
Submission 8%
Decision 44%
Murzakanov's superior striking defense (61% vs 50%) and recent knockout power give him the edge. Rakic has lost his last two fights by KO/TKO and shows vulnerability to strikes. The southpaw stance creates awkward angles for Rakic's orthodox approach, and Murzakanov's 4-1 record with 3 KO/TKO finish...
GPT MISS
Aleksandar Rakic
68%win confidence
KO/TKO 18%
Submission 2%
Decision 80%
Rakic holds a significant reach advantage (7 inches) and strong takedown defense (85%) which will help him control the range against Murzakanov. While Murzakanov is more accurate and lands at a higher rate, Rakic's defensive fundamentals, physical size, and experience against elite competition shoul...
FINAL: Ikram Aliskerov by U-DEC
Aliskerov WLWW 182d out Park WWLWW 126d out last 5
Ikram Aliskerov last fought 182 days ago
W
vs Andre Muniz · KO/TKO Punches2025-04-26
L
vs Robert Whittaker · KO/TKO2024-01-20
W
vs Warlley Alves · KO/TKO2023-10-21
W
vs Phil Hawes · KO/TKO2023-05-06
JunYong Park last fought 126 days ago
W
vs Ismail Naurdiev · U-DEC2025-06-21
W
vs Brad Tavares · S-DEC2024-04-27
L
vs Andre Muniz · S-DEC2023-12-09
W
vs Albert Duraev · SUB2023-07-15
W
vs Denis Tiuliulin · SUB2023-02-04
Claude MISS
JunYong Park
68%win confidence
KO/TKO 22%
Submission 18%
Decision 60%
Park's superior defensive metrics (54% striking defense vs 36%) and better recent form (4-1 vs 2-3) make him the favorite. Aliskerov's poor striking defense leaves him vulnerable to Park's measured approach. Park's 75% win rate and consistent decision victories show he can control fights effectively...
GPT HIT
Ikram Aliskerov
61%win confidence
KO/TKO 54%
Submission 17%
Decision 29%
Aliskerov holds a significant edge in striking accuracy and volume, with a 60% accuracy and a high 7.03 SLpM, indicating potent offensive output. While his defensive metrics are lacking, Park's lower output and less dynamic finishing ability make it unlikely he'll capitalize offensively. Aliskerov's...
FINAL: Ludovit Klein by M-DEC
Klein LWWWW 147d out Rebecki LWWW 678d out last 5
Ludovit Klein last fought 147 days ago
L
vs Mateusz Gamrot · U-DEC2025-05-31
W
vs Roosevelt Roberts · U-DEC2024-04-06
W
vs AJ Cunningham · KO/TKO2024-03-02
W
vs Thiago Moises · U-DEC2024-01-06
W
vs Ignacio Bahamondes · U-DEC2023-08-05
Mateusz Rebecki last fought 678 days ago, long layoff
L
vs Diego Ferreira · KO/TKO2023-12-16
W
vs Roosevelt Roberts · SUB2023-11-11
W
vs Loik Radzhabov · KO/TKO2023-06-24
W
vs Nick Fiore · U-DEC2023-01-14
Claude HIT
Ludovit Klein
71%win confidence
KO/TKO 25%
Submission 12%
Decision 63%
Klein's exceptional recent form (5-0 streak) and superior takedown defense (91% vs 33%) give him clear advantages. His 6-inch reach advantage will be crucial in maintaining distance against Rebecki's aggressive style. Klein's defensive wrestling and striking accuracy create a stylistic nightmare for...
GPT MISS
Mateusz Rebecki
62%win confidence
KO/TKO 13%
Submission 20%
Decision 67%
Rebecki's high takedown volume (4.12 per fight) and 75% accuracy, paired with a strong submission threat (1.0 sub avg), give him a clear grappling edge over Klein. Klein's 91% takedown defense will be tested rigorously, but Rebecki's pace and volume, both standing and on the mat, should allow him to...
Al-Selwady L 601d out Camilo L 161d out last 5
Abdul-Kareem Al-Selwady last fought 601 days ago, long layoff
L
vs Loik Radzhabov · KO/TKO2024-03-02
Matheus Camilo last fought 161 days ago
L
vs Gabe Green · SUB Rear Naked Choke2025-05-17
Claude
Abdul-Kareem Al-Selwady
62%win confidence
KO/TKO 15%
Submission 20%
Decision 65%
Al-Selwady enters with UFC experience despite his recent KO loss, while Camilo makes his debut with no recorded UFC stats. Al-Selwady's 2.32 takedowns per fight and 30% accuracy suggests a wrestling-heavy approach against the unproven Camilo. The 34% striking accuracy is concerning, but Camilo's com...
GPT
Abdul-Kareem Al-Selwady
74%win confidence
KO/TKO 17%
Submission 13%
Decision 70%
Al-Selwady displays significantly superior statistical output in both striking and grappling compared to Camilo, whose UFC-level data is currently unavailable or negligible. Al-Selwady's moderate striking volume, solid defensive stats, and active takedown attempts provide him with clear paths to out...
FINAL: Nathaniel Wood by U-DEC
Wood WWLWW 217d out Delgado WW 119d out last 5
Nathaniel Wood last fought 217 days ago
W
vs Morgan Charriere · U-DEC2025-03-22
W
vs Daniel Pineda · U-DEC2024-02-17
L
vs Muhammad Naimov · U-DEC2023-10-21
W
vs Andre Fili · U-DEC2023-07-22
W
vs Charles Jourdain · U-DEC2022-09-03
Jose Delgado last fought 119 days ago
W
vs Hyder Amil · KO/TKO Knee2025-06-28
W
vs Connor Matthews · KO/TKO Punches2025-02-15
Claude HIT
Nathaniel Wood
68%win confidence
KO/TKO 12%
Submission 18%
Decision 70%
Wood brings significant UFC experience with a 75% win rate and consistent decision victories. His 51% striking accuracy and 56% defense show solid fundamentals. Delgado's 7.01 takedowns per fight is concerning, but Wood's 72% takedown defense and proven ability to win decisions suggests he can neutr...
GPT MISS
Jose Delgado
72%win confidence
KO/TKO 19%
Submission 7%
Decision 74%
Delgado's elite takedown output (7.01 per fight) and 75% accuracy, paired with a perfect 100% takedown defense, suggest he can dictate where the fight takes place. While Wood is a slick, high-volume striker with solid defensive stats, Delgado's ability to mix high-paced striking (6.23 SLpM) with rel...
FINAL: Hamdy Abdelwahab by U-DEC
Abdelwahab LWL 126d out Barnett WLWL 1141d out last 5
Hamdy Abdelwahab last fought 126 days ago
L
vs Mohammed Usman · U-DEC2025-06-21
W
vs Jamal Pogues · S-DEC2025-02-01
L
vs Don'Tale Mayes · Overturned2022-07-30
Chris Barnett last fought 1141 days ago, long layoff
W
vs Jake Collier · KO/TKO2022-09-10
L
vs Martin Buday · U-DEC2022-04-16
W
vs Gian Villante · KO/TKO2021-11-06
L
vs Ben Rothwell · SUB2021-05-22
Claude MISS
Chris Barnett
58%win confidence
KO/TKO 55%
Submission 10%
Decision 35%
Barnett's 50% KO rate in recent fights and superior striking volume (4.41 vs 3.87 SLPM) give him the edge in this heavyweight clash. Abdelwahab's long layoff since July 2022 and overturned loss raise concerns about ring rust and preparation. Barnett's 3-inch reach advantage despite being 5 inches sh...
GPT HIT
Hamdy Abdelwahab
70%win confidence
KO/TKO 18%
Submission 7%
Decision 75%
Abdelwahab's strong wrestling base and high takedown accuracy (75%) give him a clear path to neutralize Barnett, who has poor takedown defense (33%) and absorbs significantly more strikes than he lands. While Barnett is more active and dangerous on the feet, his striking defense (40%) and tendency t...
FINAL: Mitch Raposo by U-DEC
Maksum LLW 126d out Raposo LL 196d out last 5
Azat Maksum last fought 126 days ago
L
vs Tagir Ulanbekov · U-DEC2025-06-21
L
vs Charles Johnson · U-DEC2024-02-03
W
vs Tyson Nam · S-DEC2023-07-15
Mitch Raposo last fought 196 days ago
L
vs Sumudaerji · S-DEC2025-04-12
L
vs Andre Lima · S-DEC2024-01-01
Claude MISS
Azat Maksum
62%win confidence
KO/TKO 15%
Submission 20%
Decision 65%
Maksum's southpaw stance and 6-inch reach advantage will be decisive factors against the shorter Raposo. While both fighters have struggled recently, Maksum's superior defensive metrics (55% vs 51% striking defense) and better takedown defense (66% vs 50%) suggest he can neutralize Raposo's wrestlin...
GPT MISS
Azat Maksum
62%win confidence
KO/TKO 9%
Submission 13%
Decision 78%
Maksum holds a slight edge in grappling output and defensive metrics, particularly with better takedown defense (66% vs 50%) and a marginally higher win rate. Raposo is more accurate in both striking and takedowns, but he absorbs less punishment per minute. However, Maksum's superior wrestling defen...
FINAL: Mizuki by U-DEC
Amorim WWWWL 182d out Mizuki WLW 763d out last 5
Jaqueline Amorim last fought 182 days ago
W
vs Polyana Viana · SUB Rear Naked Choke2025-04-26
W
vs Vanessa Demopoulos · SUB2024-03-23
W
vs Cory McKenna · SUB2024-03-16
W
vs Montserrat Conejo Ruiz · KO/TKO2023-08-12
L
vs Sam Hughes · U-DEC2023-04-08
Mizuki last fought 763 days ago, long layoff
W
vs Hannah Goldy · U-DEC2023-09-23
L
vs Amanda Lemos · U-DEC2020-08-22
W
vs Wu Yanan · S-DEC2019-08-31
Claude MISS
Jaqueline Amorim
78%win confidence
KO/TKO 10%
Submission 65%
Decision 25%
Amorim's elite submission game (5.3 subs per fight) presents an overwhelming threat to Mizuki, who has shown vulnerability on the ground. Amorim is on a 4-fight win streak with 3 recent submissions, demonstrating peak form and confidence. While Mizuki has excellent takedown defense (85%), Amorim onl...
GPT MISS
Jaqueline Amorim
72%win confidence
KO/TKO 5%
Submission 57%
Decision 38%
Amorim's elite submission game (5.3 subs per fight) and strong grappling advantage stand out against Mizuki, whose takedown defense is good but has shown vulnerability when pressured by high-level grapplers. While Mizuki possesses higher striking volume, her negative strike differential and lower de...