August 16, 2025
UFC 319: Du Plessis vs. Chimaev
Card complete. GPT 7/12 (58%) · Claude 8/12 (67%)
All results
Both models agree 12 of 13 fights
Lerone Murphy over Aaron Pico
Both call Decision
Claude 78%
GPT 75%
GPT 75%
Khamzat Chimaev over Dricus Du Plessis
Both call Submission
Claude 72%
GPT 75%
GPT 75%
Baisangur Susurkaev over Eric Nolan
Both call Decision
Claude 68%
GPT 78%
GPT 78%
Tim Elliott over Kai Asakura
Claude 72%
GPT 68%
GPT 68%
Bryan Battle over Nursulton Ruziboev
Claude 72%
GPT 68%
GPT 68%
Jared Cannonier over Michael Page
Both call KO/TKO
Claude 72%
GPT 67%
GPT 67%
Jessica Andrade over Loopy Godinez
Claude 72%
GPT 67%
GPT 67%
Gerald Meerschaert over Michal Oleksiejczuk
Both call Submission
Claude 65%
GPT 70%
GPT 70%
Karine Silva over Dione Barbosa
Both call Submission
Claude 68%
GPT 65%
GPT 65%
Joseph Morales over Alibi Idiris
Claude 58%
GPT 75%
GPT 75%
Drakkar Klose over Edson Barboza
Both call Decision
Claude 58%
GPT 70%
GPT 70%
Chase Hooper over Alexander Hernandez
Both call Submission
Claude 65%
GPT 62%
GPT 62%
Double locks: both at 75% or higher 1 fight
Lerone Murphy over Aaron Pico
Both call Decision
Claude 78%
GPT 75%
GPT 75%
Build your own list 12 match
Lerone Murphy over Aaron Pico
Both call Decision
Claude 78%
GPT 75%
GPT 75%
Khamzat Chimaev over Dricus Du Plessis
Both call Submission
Claude 72%
GPT 75%
GPT 75%
Baisangur Susurkaev over Eric Nolan
Both call Decision
Claude 68%
GPT 78%
GPT 78%
Tim Elliott over Kai Asakura
Claude 72%
GPT 68%
GPT 68%
Bryan Battle over Nursulton Ruziboev
Claude 72%
GPT 68%
GPT 68%
Jared Cannonier over Michael Page
Both call KO/TKO
Claude 72%
GPT 67%
GPT 67%
Jessica Andrade over Loopy Godinez
Claude 72%
GPT 67%
GPT 67%
Gerald Meerschaert over Michal Oleksiejczuk
Both call Submission
Claude 65%
GPT 70%
GPT 70%
Karine Silva over Dione Barbosa
Both call Submission
Claude 68%
GPT 65%
GPT 65%
Joseph Morales over Alibi Idiris
Claude 58%
GPT 75%
GPT 75%
Drakkar Klose over Edson Barboza
Both call Decision
Claude 58%
GPT 70%
GPT 70%
Chase Hooper over Alexander Hernandez
Both call Submission
Claude 65%
GPT 62%
GPT 62%
Win confidence is the model's probability that its pick wins: 55 to 64 is a shrug, 65 to 74 is confident, 75 and up is the model betting its reputation.
KO/TKO, Submission, Decision is how the model splits the ways the fight ends, out of 100.
Odds are the sportsbook moneyline with the bookmaker margin removed, so the two percentages sum to 100. When a model's confidence beats the market's implied number, that gap is the value.
Elo is an opponent adjusted rating built from every UFC fight since 1994. Click any Elo number on the card for the full explanation, including what the star means.
FINAL: Khamzat Chimaev by U-DEC
Plessis WWWWW 188d out Chimaev WWWWW 665d out last 5
Dricus Du Plessis last fought 188 days ago
W
vs Sean Strickland · U-DEC2025-02-08
W
vs Israel Adesanya · SUB2024-03-09
W
vs Sean Strickland · S-DEC2024-01-20
W
vs Robert Whittaker · KO/TKO2023-07-08
W
vs Derek Brunson · KO/TKO2023-03-04
Khamzat Chimaev last fought 665 days ago, long layoff
W
vs Kamaru Usman · M-DEC2023-10-21
W
vs Kevin Holland · SUB2022-09-10
W
vs Gilbert Burns · U-DEC2022-04-09
W
vs Li Jingliang · SUB2021-10-30
W
vs Gerald Meerschaert · KO/TKO2020-09-19
Claude HIT
Khamzat Chimaev
72%win confidence
KO/TKO 15%
Submission 55%
Decision 30%
Chimaev's elite wrestling (4.31 TD/15min, 100% TDD) and submission game (2.8 subs/15min) presents a nightmare matchup for Du Plessis, who has shown vulnerability to grapplers (50% TDD). While Du Plessis has superior striking defense (54% vs 41%), Chimaev's relentless pressure and cardio from his rec...
GPT HIT
Khamzat Chimaev
75%win confidence
KO/TKO 17%
Submission 48%
Decision 35%
Chimaev's grappling and submission numbers are elite, with 4.31 takedowns per 15 minutes and a high 2.8 submission average, while Du Plessis has shown only 50% takedown defense. Du Plessis is durable and high-volume offensively, but Chimaev's 100% takedown defense and superior positional grappling p...
FINAL: Lerone Murphy by KO/TKO Spinning Back Elbow
Murphy WWWWW 133d out Pico last 5
Lerone Murphy last fought 133 days ago
W
vs Josh Emmett · U-DEC2025-04-05
W
vs Edson Barboza · U-DEC2023-12-23
W
vs Josh Culibao · U-DEC2023-07-22
W
vs Gabriel Santos · S-DEC2023-03-18
W
vs Makwan Amirkhani · KO/TKO2021-10-30
Aaron Pico no UFC fights on record
Claude HIT
Lerone Murphy
78%win confidence
KO/TKO 20%
Submission 10%
Decision 70%
Murphy's UFC experience and complete statistical profile dominate this matchup against Pico, who has zero UFC data. Murphy's 88.9% win rate, superior striking volume (4.53 SLPM), and 61% striking defense showcase a well-rounded game. His 5-fight winning streak with consistent decision victories indi...
GPT HIT
Lerone Murphy
75%win confidence
KO/TKO 18%
Submission 7%
Decision 75%
Murphy has a proven UFC record with efficient striking output, high striking accuracy, and solid defense. Pico's statistical profile is incomplete at the UFC level, making it difficult to project his effectiveness against high-caliber competition. Murphy's 61% striking defense and +2.05 strike diffe...
FINAL: Carlos Prates by KO/TKO Spinning Back Elbow
Neal LLWWL 545d out Prates LLWWW 112d out last 5
Geoff Neal last fought 545 days ago, long layoff
L
vs Ian Machado Garry · S-DEC2024-02-17
L
vs Shavkat Rakhmonov · SUB2023-03-04
W
vs Vicente Luque · KO/TKO2022-08-06
W
vs Santiago Ponzinibbio · S-DEC2021-12-11
L
vs Neil Magny · U-DEC2021-05-08
Carlos Prates last fought 112 days ago
L
vs Ian Machado Garry · U-DEC2025-04-26
L
vs win · 2024-11-09
W
vs Li Jingliang · KO/TKO2024-03-09
W
vs Trevin Giles · KO/TKO2024-02-10
W
vs Charles Radtke · KO/TKO2024-01-06
Claude HIT
Carlos Prates
65%win confidence
KO/TKO 55%
Submission 5%
Decision 40%
Prates enters with devastating momentum (4 straight KO/TKO wins) against a declining Neal (2-3 last 5). The physical advantages are crucial - Prates' 78-inch reach and 6'1" frame create significant striking opportunities against the shorter Neal. While Neal has better striking volume (5.05 vs 3.6 SL...
GPT MISS
Geoff Neal
68%win confidence
KO/TKO 23%
Submission 4%
Decision 73%
Geoff Neal holds a significant edge in striking volume, defense, and UFC experience. While Carlos Prates possesses slightly higher striking accuracy and physical advantages, his defensive metrics and strike differential indicate vulnerability against high-output strikers. Neal's superior takedown de...
FINAL: Michael Page by U-DEC
Cannonier WLLWW 181d out Page WWL 195d out last 5
Jared Cannonier last fought 181 days ago
W
vs Gregory Rodrigues · KO/TKO Punches2025-02-15
L
vs Caio Borralho · U-DEC2024-03-16
L
vs Nassourdine Imavov · KO/TKO2024-01-06
W
vs Marvin Vettori · U-DEC2023-06-17
W
vs Sean Strickland · S-DEC2022-12-17
Michael Page last fought 195 days ago
W
vs Shara Magomedov · U-DEC2025-02-01
W
vs Kevin Holland · U-DEC2024-03-09
L
vs Ian Machado Garry · U-DEC2024-01-27
Claude MISS
Jared Cannonier
72%win confidence
KO/TKO 45%
Submission 5%
Decision 50%
Cannonier's power striking and durability advantage should overwhelm Page's flashy but lower-volume approach. Page is moving up from welterweight where he struggled against top competition, and Cannonier's 82% higher striking volume (4.6 vs 2.53 SLPM) combined with his proven middleweight power pres...
GPT MISS
Jared Cannonier
67%win confidence
KO/TKO 57%
Submission 3%
Decision 40%
Cannonier's higher striking volume and proven knockout power give him the edge against Page, who has a lower output and less experience against elite middleweight finishers. While Page's striking accuracy and movement will present early problems, Cannonier's pressure, durability, and ability to land...
FINAL: Tim Elliott by SUB Guillotine Choke
Elliott WLWWL 615d out Asakura L 251d out last 5
Tim Elliott last fought 615 days ago, long layoff
W
vs Sumudaerji · SUB2023-12-09
L
vs Muhammad Mokaev · SUB2023-10-21
W
vs Victor Altamirano · U-DEC2023-06-03
W
vs Tagir Ulanbekov · U-DEC2022-03-05
L
vs Matheus Nicolau · U-DEC2021-10-09
Kai Asakura last fought 251 days ago
L
vs Alexandre Pantoja · SUB Rear Naked Choke2024-12-07
Claude HIT
Tim Elliott
72%win confidence
KO/TKO 15%
Submission 55%
Decision 30%
Elliott's extensive UFC experience and elite grappling game presents a nightmare matchup for Asakura's UFC debut. With 3.73 takedowns per fight at 47% accuracy and 1 submission per fight average, Elliott will exploit Asakura's limited grappling defense (57% TDD). Asakura's striking differential of -...
GPT HIT
Tim Elliott
68%win confidence
KO/TKO 9%
Submission 23%
Decision 68%
Elliott's superior wrestling, grappling volume, and defensive metrics provide a clear edge over Asakura, whose striking defense and takedown defense are statistically weak. Elliott's relentless pace and control should neutralize Asakura's power and accuracy, leading to a decision win.
FINAL: Baisangur Susurkaev by SUB Rear Naked Choke
Claude HIT
Baisangur Susurkaev
68%win confidence
KO/TKO 25%
Submission 10%
Decision 65%
Susurkaev holds significant advantages in every measurable metric against a debuting Nolan with no UFC statistics. His 5-inch reach advantage, 58% striking accuracy, and 100% takedown defense create a comprehensive edge. The 3.26 strikes landed per minute with positive differential (+0.98) suggests ...
GPT HIT
Baisangur Susurkaev
78%win confidence
KO/TKO 15%
Submission 7%
Decision 78%
Susurkaev has demonstrated effective and accurate striking with a 58% accuracy and positive strike differential, while Nolan's statistical profile is essentially blank, suggesting either limited or no UFC data. Additionally, Susurkaev's perfect takedown defense indicates strong defensive awareness. ...
FINAL: Michal Oleksiejczuk by KO/TKO Punches
Meerschaert LWWLL 133d out Oleksiejczuk WLLLW 126d out last 5
Gerald Meerschaert last fought 133 days ago
L
vs Brad Tavares · U-DEC2025-04-05
W
vs Bryan Barberena · SUB2024-03-16
W
vs Edmen Shahbazyan · SUB2024-03-16
L
vs Andre Petroski · S-DEC2023-08-19
L
vs Joe Pyfer · KO/TKO2023-04-08
Michal Oleksiejczuk last fought 126 days ago
W
vs Sedriques Dumas · KO/TKO Punches2025-04-12
L
vs Michel Pereira · SUB2024-03-09
L
vs Shara Magomedov · U-DEC2024-02-24
L
vs Kevin Holland · SUB2024-01-01
W
vs Chidi Njokuani · KO/TKO2023-08-26
Claude MISS
Gerald Meerschaert
65%win confidence
KO/TKO 20%
Submission 60%
Decision 20%
Meerschaert's elite submission game (1.4 subs per fight) perfectly exploits Oleksiejczuk's catastrophic recent form - five straight losses, three by submission. Oleksiejczuk's 48% takedown defense and tendency to gas after high-volume striking (5.27 SLPM) plays directly into Meerschaert's patient gr...
GPT MISS
Gerald Meerschaert
70%win confidence
KO/TKO 10%
Submission 60%
Decision 30%
Meerschaert's high submission average and proven finishing ability on the ground directly exploit Oleksiejczuk's historically weak submission defense. While Oleksiejczuk is the superior striker and more dangerous on the feet, his takedown defense (48%) and previous submission losses make him vulnera...
FINAL: Loopy Godinez by U-DEC
Andrade LWLWL 98d out Godinez WLLWW 140d out last 5
Jessica Andrade last fought 98 days ago
L
vs Jasmine Jasudavicius · SUB Rear Naked Choke2025-05-10
W
vs Marina Rodriguez · S-DEC2024-04-13
L
vs Natalia Silva · U-DEC2024-03-23
W
vs Mackenzie Dern · KO/TKO2023-11-11
L
vs Tatiana Suarez · SUB2023-08-05
Loopy Godinez last fought 140 days ago
W
vs Julia Polastri · U-DEC2025-03-29
L
vs Virna Jandiroba · U-DEC2024-03-30
L
vs Mackenzie Dern · U-DEC2024-02-24
W
vs Tabatha Ricci · S-DEC2023-11-11
W
vs Elise Reed · SUB2023-09-16
Claude MISS
Jessica Andrade
72%win confidence
KO/TKO 48%
Submission 12%
Decision 40%
Andrade's 4-0 record against common opponents versus Godinez's 1-3 demonstrates a clear quality gap. Andrade's superior striking volume (6.39 vs 4.28 SLPM) and power finishing ability (3 KO/TKO wins against shared opponents) will overwhelm Godinez, who is on a 3-fight losing streak and has shown vul...
GPT MISS
Jessica Andrade
67%win confidence
KO/TKO 22%
Submission 8%
Decision 70%
Andrade's superior striking volume, power, and proven success against common opponents give her the edge. While Godinez is a strong wrestler with excellent takedown defense, Andrade's pressure, high output, and ability to defend takedowns (71% TDDef) should allow her to dictate the pace and win roun...
FINAL: Alexander Hernandez by KO/TKO Punch
Hooper WWWWW 126d out Hernandez WWLLW 154d out last 5
Chase Hooper last fought 126 days ago
W
vs Jim Miller · U-DEC2025-04-12
W
vs Clay Guida · SUB Armbar2024-12-07
W
vs Viacheslav Borshchev · SUB2023-12-16
W
vs Jordan Leavitt · SUB2023-11-18
W
vs Nick Fiore · U-DEC2023-05-20
Alexander Hernandez last fought 154 days ago
W
vs Kurt Holobaugh · U-DEC2025-03-15
W
vs Austin Hubbard · S-DEC2024-04-13
L
vs Damon Jackson · S-DEC2024-04-06
L
vs Bill Algeo · U-DEC2023-10-07
W
vs Jim Miller · U-DEC2023-02-18
Claude MISS
Chase Hooper
65%win confidence
KO/TKO 15%
Submission 55%
Decision 30%
Hooper's 4-fight win streak (3 by submission) showcases elite grappling against Hernandez's poor 36% takedown accuracy and minimal submission defense. The 4-inch height and 2-inch reach advantage allows Hooper to control distance and secure takedowns. Hernandez's recent weight class instability (3 c...
GPT MISS
Chase Hooper
62%win confidence
KO/TKO 8%
Submission 54%
Decision 38%
Hooper holds significant grappling and submission advantages, evidenced by his higher takedown (2.59 per fight) and submission averages (2.2 per fight) compared to Hernandez's low submission output (0.1 per fight). Hernandez does possess superior striking defense (57% vs. 38%) and a higher takedown ...
FINAL: Drakkar Klose by U-DEC
Barboza LWWLL 601d out Klose LWWWW 244d out last 5
Edson Barboza last fought 601 days ago, long layoff
L
vs Lerone Murphy · U-DEC2023-12-23
W
vs Sodiq Yusuff · U-DEC2023-10-14
W
vs Billy Quarantillo · KO/TKO2023-04-15
L
vs Bryce Mitchell · U-DEC2022-03-05
L
vs Giga Chikadze · KO/TKO2021-08-28
Drakkar Klose last fought 244 days ago
L
vs Joel Alvarez · KO/TKO Knee2024-12-14
W
vs Joaquim Silva · U-DEC2023-12-09
W
vs Joe Solecki · KO/TKO2023-12-02
W
vs Rafa Garcia · U-DEC2022-07-30
W
vs Brandon Jenkins · KO/TKO2022-04-16
Claude HIT
Drakkar Klose
58%win confidence
KO/TKO 25%
Submission 5%
Decision 70%
Klose's 5-fight win streak and superior recent form (83.3% win rate) contrasts with Barboza's age (39) and mixed results. While Barboza holds a 5-inch reach advantage, Klose's better striking defense (50% vs 56%) and positive strike differential (+0.79 vs -0.54) indicate he can weather Barboza's att...
GPT HIT
Drakkar Klose
70%win confidence
KO/TKO 20%
Submission 5%
Decision 75%
Klose has superior striking accuracy, a positive strike differential, and a higher win rate. His higher takedown volume, combined with Barboza's declining strike differential and absorption rate, indicate Klose can mix in wrestling to disrupt Barboza's rhythm. Barboza's 5-inch reach edge and experie...
Battle WWWWW 251d out Ruziboev WWWLW 91d out last 5
Bryan Battle last fought 251 days ago
W
vs Randy Brown · S-DEC2024-12-07
W
vs Kevin Jousset · KO/TKO2024-04-06
W
vs Ange Loosa · CNC2024-03-16
W
vs AJ Fletcher · SUB2023-09-23
W
vs Gabe Green · KO/TKO2023-05-13
Nursulton Ruziboev last fought 91 days ago
W
vs Dustin Stoltzfus · U-DEC2025-05-17
W
vs Eric McConico · KO/TKO Punch2025-02-22
W
vs Sedriques Dumas · KO/TKO2024-03-30
L
vs Joaquin Buckley · U-DEC2023-12-16
W
vs Brunno Ferreira · KO/TKO2023-07-01
Claude
Bryan Battle
72%win confidence
KO/TKO 48%
Submission 15%
Decision 37%
Battle's superior striking volume (5.12 vs 2.59 SLPM) and recent finishing streak give him a significant edge. Ruziboev's poor takedown defense (33%) and frequent weight class changes indicate vulnerability. Battle has finished 3 of his last 5 fights by KO/TKO and maintains better striking accuracy ...
GPT
Bryan Battle
68%win confidence
KO/TKO 18%
Submission 7%
Decision 75%
Bryan Battle holds a significant edge in striking volume and accuracy, landing over 5 significant strikes per minute at a high 52% accuracy compared to Ruziboev's lower output. While Ruziboev is more accurate with takedowns, his takedown defense is poor (33%), and his striking defense is only slight...
FINAL: Karine Silva by U-DEC
Silva LWWWW 272d out Barbosa WLW 133d out last 5
Karine Silva last fought 272 days ago
L
vs Viviane Araujo · 2024-11-16
W
vs Ariane da Silva · U-DEC2024-04-27
W
vs Maryna Moroz · SUB2023-08-19
W
vs Ketlen Souza · SUB2023-06-03
W
vs Poliana Botelho · SUB2022-06-04
Dione Barbosa last fought 133 days ago
W
vs Diana Belbita · SUB Arm Triangle2025-04-05
L
vs Miranda Maverick · U-DEC2024-02-10
W
vs Ernesta Kareckaite · U-DEC2023-12-09
Claude HIT
Karine Silva
68%win confidence
KO/TKO 8%
Submission 62%
Decision 30%
Silva's elite grappling credentials (3.59 takedowns per fight, 72% accuracy) combined with her 3 submission wins in last 5 fights make her the clear favorite. Despite similar submission rates, Silva's superior takedown accuracy (72% vs 33%) and perfect UFC record before her last loss indicate higher...
GPT HIT
Karine Silva
65%win confidence
KO/TKO 8%
Submission 55%
Decision 37%
Silva's aggressive grappling (3.59 takedowns per 15 min, 72% accuracy) and high submission average (2.2 per 15 min) give her a proven edge against Barbosa, whose takedown defense is just 42%. While Barbosa is defensively sound on the feet and matches Silva's submission output, her lower grappling vo...
FINAL: Joseph Morales by SUB Triangle Choke
Idiris Morales LLW 2470d out last 5
Alibi Idiris no UFC fights on record
Joseph Morales last fought 2470 days ago, long layoff
L
vs Eric Shelton · S-DEC2018-11-10
L
vs Deiveson Figueiredo · KO/TKO2018-02-03
W
vs Robert Sanchez · SUB2017-08-05
Claude HIT
Joseph Morales
58%win confidence
KO/TKO 15%
Submission 35%
Decision 50%
Morales' UFC experience and established skill set make him the favorite against the debuting Idiris. With no available stats for Idiris and Morales showing submission threat (2.6 per fight), experience becomes the deciding factor. Morales' switch stance and reach advantage provide tactical options.
GPT HIT
Joseph Morales
75%win confidence
KO/TKO 10%
Submission 60%
Decision 30%
Joseph Morales holds a significant statistical and experience advantage, as Alibi Idiris has no quantifiable UFC data available, suggesting either an Octagon debut or no effective offense/defense in prior appearances. Morales displays above-average submission volume (2.6 subs per 15 minutes), decent...