July 19, 2025
UFC 318: Holloway vs. Poirier 3
Card complete. Claude 9/13 (69%) · GPT 9/13 (69%)
All results
Both models agree 10 of 14 fights
Ateba Gautier over Robert Valentin
Claude 78%
GPT 82%
GPT 82%
Brunno Ferreira over Jackson McVey
Both call KO/TKO
Claude 78%
GPT 78%
GPT 78%
Jimmy Crute over Marcin Prachnio
Both call Submission
Claude 72%
GPT 75%
GPT 75%
Islam Dulatov over Adam Fugitt
Both call Decision
Claude 68%
GPT 77%
GPT 77%
Daniel Zellhuber over Michael Johnson
Both call Decision
Claude 72%
GPT 70%
GPT 70%
Ryan Spann over Lukasz Brzeski
Both call Submission
Claude 68%
GPT 73%
GPT 73%
Nicolle Caliari over Carli Judice
Both call Submission
Claude 72%
GPT 65%
GPT 65%
Dan Ige over Patricio Freire
Both call Decision
Claude 72%
GPT 63%
GPT 63%
Max Holloway over Dustin Poirier
Both call Decision
Claude 68%
GPT 65%
GPT 65%
Daniel Rodriguez over Kevin Holland
Both call Decision
Claude 71%
GPT 61%
GPT 61%
Double locks: both at 75% or higher 2 fights
Ateba Gautier over Robert Valentin
Claude 78%
GPT 82%
GPT 82%
Brunno Ferreira over Jackson McVey
Both call KO/TKO
Claude 78%
GPT 78%
GPT 78%
Build your own list 10 match
Ateba Gautier over Robert Valentin
Claude 78%
GPT 82%
GPT 82%
Brunno Ferreira over Jackson McVey
Both call KO/TKO
Claude 78%
GPT 78%
GPT 78%
Jimmy Crute over Marcin Prachnio
Both call Submission
Claude 72%
GPT 75%
GPT 75%
Islam Dulatov over Adam Fugitt
Both call Decision
Claude 68%
GPT 77%
GPT 77%
Daniel Zellhuber over Michael Johnson
Both call Decision
Claude 72%
GPT 70%
GPT 70%
Ryan Spann over Lukasz Brzeski
Both call Submission
Claude 68%
GPT 73%
GPT 73%
Nicolle Caliari over Carli Judice
Both call Submission
Claude 72%
GPT 65%
GPT 65%
Dan Ige over Patricio Freire
Both call Decision
Claude 72%
GPT 63%
GPT 63%
Max Holloway over Dustin Poirier
Both call Decision
Claude 68%
GPT 65%
GPT 65%
Daniel Rodriguez over Kevin Holland
Both call Decision
Claude 71%
GPT 61%
GPT 61%
Win confidence is the model's probability that its pick wins: 55 to 64 is a shrug, 65 to 74 is confident, 75 and up is the model betting its reputation.
KO/TKO, Submission, Decision is how the model splits the ways the fight ends, out of 100.
Odds are the sportsbook moneyline with the bookmaker margin removed, so the two percentages sum to 100. When a model's confidence beats the market's implied number, that gap is the value.
Elo is an opponent adjusted rating built from every UFC fight since 1994. Click any Elo number on the card for the full explanation, including what the star means.
FINAL: Max Holloway by U-DEC
Holloway WWWLW 462d out Poirier WLLWL 496d out last 5
Max Holloway last fought 462 days ago, long layoff
W
vs Justin Gaethje · KO/TKO2024-04-13
W
vs Chan Sung Jung · KO/TKO2023-08-26
W
vs Arnold Allen · U-DEC2023-04-15
L
vs Alexander Volkanovski · U-DEC2022-07-02
W
vs Yair Rodriguez · U-DEC2021-11-13
Dustin Poirier last fought 496 days ago, long layoff
W
vs Benoit Saint Denis · KO/TKO2024-03-09
L
vs Islam Makhachev · SUB2024-01-01
L
vs Justin Gaethje · KO/TKO2023-07-29
W
vs Michael Chandler · SUB2022-11-12
L
vs Charles Oliveira · SUB2021-12-11
Claude HIT
Max Holloway
68%win confidence
KO/TKO 25%
Submission 5%
Decision 70%
Holloway's superior volume (7.17 SLPM vs 5.3), better striking defense (59% vs 52%), and dominant 6-1 record against common opponents gives him the edge. His recent KO of Gaethje at 155 proves his power carries up, while Poirier's 2-3 recent form with submission losses shows vulnerability. Max's 3-i...
GPT HIT
Max Holloway
65%win confidence
KO/TKO 18%
Submission 7%
Decision 75%
Holloway's superior striking volume, accuracy, and defensive metrics give him the edge in a high-paced, competitive fight. Poirier's grappling and power are threats, but Holloway's strong takedown defense and output are likely to sway the judges over five rounds.
FINAL: Paulo Costa by U-DEC
Costa LLWLL 517d out Kopylov WLWWW 188d out last 5
Paulo Costa last fought 517 days ago, long layoff
L
vs Robert Whittaker · U-DEC2024-02-17
L
vs Sean Strickland · S-DEC2024-01-01
W
vs Luke Rockhold · U-DEC2022-08-20
L
vs Marvin Vettori · U-DEC2021-10-23
L
vs Israel Adesanya · KO/TKO2020-09-26
Roman Kopylov last fought 188 days ago
W
vs Chris Curtis · KO/TKO Kick2025-01-11
L
vs Anthony Hernandez · SUB2024-02-17
W
vs Cesar Almeida · S-DEC2024-01-01
W
vs Josh Fremd · KO/TKO2023-09-16
W
vs Claudio Ribeiro · KO/TKO2023-07-29
Claude MISS
Roman Kopylov
62%win confidence
KO/TKO 45%
Submission 10%
Decision 45%
Kopylov's superior form (4-1 with 2 KOs) contrasts sharply with Costa's 1-4 slide. Despite Costa's volume edge (6.22 vs 4.33 SLPM), Kopylov's better defense (58% vs 49%), superior takedown defense (87% vs 80%), and southpaw stance advantage are decisive. Costa's -0.34 strike differential and poor re...
GPT HIT
Paulo Costa
66%win confidence
KO/TKO 58%
Submission 2%
Decision 40%
Costa brings superior power, higher striking volume, and a proven record against elite competition. While Kopylov is defensively sound and mixes in takedowns more often, Costa's pressure, physicality, and finishing ability are likely to overwhelm Kopylov in extended exchanges. Kopylov's takedown gam...
FINAL: Daniel Rodriguez by U-DEC
Holland WWLLL 42d out Rodriguez WWLLL 77d out last 5
Kevin Holland last fought 42 days ago
W
vs Vicente Luque · SUB Anaconda Choke2025-06-07
W
vs Gunnar Nelson · U-DEC2025-03-22
L
vs Reinier de Ridder · SUB Rear Naked Choke2025-01-18
L
vs Roman Dolidze · KO/TKO2024-04-13
L
vs Michael Page · U-DEC2024-03-09
Daniel Rodriguez last fought 77 days ago
W
vs Santiago Ponzinibbio · KO/TKO Punch2025-05-03
W
vs Alex Morono · S-DEC2024-04-27
L
vs Kelvin Gastelum · U-DEC2024-01-20
L
vs Ian Machado Garry · KO/TKO2023-05-13
L
vs Neil Magny · SUB2022-11-05
Claude HIT
Daniel Rodriguez
71%win confidence
KO/TKO 30%
Submission 15%
Decision 55%
Rodriguez's massive volume advantage (7.5 vs 4.24 SLPM) and superior defense (58% vs 50%) overwhelm Holland's physical advantages. Holland's 2-3 recent form with 2 KO losses shows chin deterioration, while Rodriguez is 2-2 but competitive. The 3.26 strike differential favoring Rodriguez and Holland'...
GPT HIT
Daniel Rodriguez
61%win confidence
KO/TKO 20%
Submission 12%
Decision 68%
Rodriguez's higher striking output (7.5 SLPM) and superior striking defense (58%) give him a statistical edge in a likely stand-up battle. Holland's reach advantage (7 inches) and submission threat provide danger, but Rodriguez absorbs more strikes yet consistently outlands opponents. Both have limi...
Ige WWLLW 98d out Freire last 5
Dan Ige last fought 98 days ago
W
vs Sean Woodson · KO/TKO Punches2025-04-12
W
vs Andre Fili · KO/TKO2024-02-10
L
vs Diego Lopes · U-DEC2024-01-27
L
vs Bryce Mitchell · U-DEC2023-09-23
W
vs Nate Landwehr · U-DEC2023-06-10
Patricio Freire no UFC fights on record
Claude
Dan Ige
72%win confidence
KO/TKO 28%
Submission 8%
Decision 64%
Ige's UFC experience and superior cardio should overwhelm Freire in his promotional debut. While Freire brings elite Bellator credentials, the transition to UFC's pace and pressure testing has historically been challenging. Ige's 6-inch reach advantage and proven durability against UFC-caliber strik...
GPT
Dan Ige
63%win confidence
KO/TKO 14%
Submission 9%
Decision 77%
Dan Ige's higher striking volume, slightly more accurate striking, and positive strike differential give him an advantage over Patricio Freire, whose UFC-level metrics show a negative strike differential and higher absorption rate. While Freire has elite takedown defense (94%) and a higher submissio...
FINAL: Michael Johnson by U-DEC
Johnson WWLWL 216d out Zellhuber LWWWL 476d out last 5
Michael Johnson last fought 216 days ago
W
vs Ottman Azaitar · KO/TKO Punch2024-12-14
W
vs Darrius Flowers · U-DEC2024-02-10
L
vs Diego Ferreira · KO/TKO2023-05-20
W
vs Marc Diakiese · U-DEC2022-12-03
L
vs Jamie Mullarkey · S-DEC2022-07-09
Daniel Zellhuber last fought 476 days ago, long layoff
L
vs Esteban Ribovics · S-DEC2024-03-30
W
vs Francisco Prado · U-DEC2024-02-24
W
vs Christos Giagos · SUB2023-09-16
W
vs Lando Vannata · U-DEC2023-04-15
L
vs Trey Ogden · U-DEC2022-09-17
Claude MISS
Daniel Zellhuber
72%win confidence
KO/TKO 25%
Submission 5%
Decision 70%
Zellhuber's significant physical advantages (3-inch height, 4-inch reach) combined with superior striking volume (6.26 vs 4.27 SLPM) and better recent form create a difficult matchup for the aging Johnson. While Johnson has veteran experience, Zellhuber's 94% takedown defense neutralizes Johnson's w...
GPT MISS
Daniel Zellhuber
70%win confidence
KO/TKO 18%
Submission 7%
Decision 75%
Zellhuber's significant edge in striking volume, physical advantages (height and reach), and elite takedown defense make him likely to outpoint Johnson over three rounds. Johnson's experience, speed, and defense should keep him competitive and limit Zellhuber's finishing chances, but Zellhuber's out...
FINAL: Vinicius Oliveira by U-DEC
Phillips LWWWL 448d out Oliveira WWW 167d out last 5
Kyler Phillips last fought 448 days ago
L
vs Rob Font · U-DEC2024-04-27
W
vs Pedro Munhoz · U-DEC2024-03-09
W
vs Raoni Barcelos · U-DEC2023-08-05
W
vs Marcelo Rojo · SUB2022-02-12
L
vs Raulian Paiva · M-DEC2021-07-24
Vinicius Oliveira last fought 167 days ago
W
vs Said Nurmagomedov · U-DEC2025-02-01
W
vs Benardo Sopaj · KO/TKO2024-03-02
W
vs Ricky Simon · U-DEC2024-01-27
Claude HIT
Vinicius Oliveira
68%win confidence
KO/TKO 45%
Submission 10%
Decision 45%
Oliveira enters on a perfect 3-0 UFC streak with momentum and finishing ability, while Phillips has dropped 2 straight. Oliveira's superior striking differential (3.0 vs 1.81) and recent KO victory suggest he can exploit Phillips' declining chin. Phillips' wrestling advantage is mitigated by Oliveir...
GPT MISS
Kyler Phillips
62%win confidence
KO/TKO 18%
Submission 12%
Decision 70%
Kyler Phillips combines strong striking defense (60%) and higher takedown output (2.63 per fight) with a well-rounded, athletic style. Oliveira is more aggressive offensively (higher SLpM, greater striking differential), but absorbs more strikes and has less reliable defensive metrics. Phillips' wre...
FINAL: Brendan Allen by U-DEC
Vettori LLWLW 126d out Allen LWLWW 146d out last 5
Marvin Vettori last fought 126 days ago
L
vs Roman Dolidze · U-DEC2025-03-15
L
vs Jared Cannonier · U-DEC2023-06-17
W
vs Roman Dolidze · U-DEC2023-03-18
L
vs Robert Whittaker · U-DEC2022-09-03
W
vs Paulo Costa · U-DEC2021-10-23
Brendan Allen last fought 146 days ago
L
vs Anthony Hernandez · U-DEC2025-02-22
W
vs Chris Curtis · S-DEC2024-04-06
L
vs Nassourdine Imavov · U-DEC2024-04-06
W
vs Paul Craig · SUB2023-11-18
W
vs Bruno Silva · SUB2023-06-24
Claude HIT
Brendan Allen
65%win confidence
KO/TKO 15%
Submission 50%
Decision 35%
Allen's elite submission game (1.3 subs per fight) presents major problems for Vettori's predictable grinding style. With 2 recent submission wins and superior finishing ability, Allen can threaten from bottom position where Vettori typically controls. Vettori's 69% TDD is vulnerable to Allen's impr...
GPT MISS
Marvin Vettori
67%win confidence
KO/TKO 10%
Submission 13%
Decision 77%
Vettori's durability, superior defensive metrics, and proven ability to outlast high-level opponents give him a clear edge in a likely high-paced, competitive fight. Allen's submission threat is significant, but Vettori's takedown defense and experience against elite grapplers reduce that risk. Expe...
FINAL: Nikolay Veretennikov by S-DEC
Prado LLWL 160d out Veretennikov LL 146d out last 5
Francisco Prado last fought 160 days ago
L
vs Jake Matthews · U-DEC2025-02-08
L
vs Daniel Zellhuber · U-DEC2024-02-24
W
vs Ottman Azaitar · KO/TKO2023-07-15
L
vs Jamie Mullarkey · U-DEC2023-02-11
Nikolay Veretennikov last fought 146 days ago
L
vs Austin Vanderford · KO/TKO Punches2025-02-22
L
vs Danny Barlow · S-DEC2024-03-02
Claude MISS
Francisco Prado
62%win confidence
KO/TKO 28%
Submission 8%
Decision 64%
Prado's youth advantage (22 vs 35) and superior striking accuracy (41% vs 59% but with better defense at 52% vs 54%) should allow him to outwork Veretennikov. Moving up from lightweight where he showed knockout power, Prado's 4.58 SLPM significantly outpaces Veretennikov's 3.4. Veretennikov is on a ...
GPT HIT
Nikolay Veretennikov
72%win confidence
KO/TKO 23%
Submission 7%
Decision 70%
Veretennikov's superior striking accuracy (59% vs 41%), positive striking differential, and notable physical advantages (6-inch reach, 1-inch height) suggest he will control the range and pace. Prado absorbs more strikes than he lands, has a negative strike differential, and struggles defensively (5...
FINAL: Ateba Gautier by KO/TKO Punch
Gautier W 112d out Valentin LL 105d out last 5
Ateba Gautier last fought 112 days ago
W
vs Jose Daniel Medina · KO/TKO Knee2025-03-29
Robert Valentin last fought 105 days ago
L
vs Torrez Finney · S-DEC2025-04-05
L
vs Ryan Loder · KO/TKO2024-03-16
Claude HIT
Ateba Gautier
78%win confidence
KO/TKO 72%
Submission 5%
Decision 23%
Gautier holds massive striking advantages with 5.33 SLPM vs Valentin's abysmal 0.15, plus 71% accuracy vs 50%. Valentin's 19% striking defense is catastrophically low and he's coming off back-to-back KO losses. Gautier's 4-inch reach advantage and superior height will allow him to pick apart Valenti...
GPT HIT
Ateba Gautier
82%win confidence
KO/TKO 31%
Submission 4%
Decision 65%
Gautier's striking volume and accuracy are exceptionally high compared to Valentin's extremely low output and poor defensive metrics. Valentin's only notable threat is his high submission average, but he has not demonstrated effective takedowns or control. Gautier's 90% takedown defense and massive ...
FINAL: Islam Dulatov by KO/TKO Punch
Fugitt WLWL 552d out Dulatov last 5
Adam Fugitt last fought 552 days ago, long layoff
W
vs Josh Quinlan · S-DEC2024-01-13
L
vs Mike Malott · SUB2023-06-10
W
vs Yusaku Kinoshita · KO/TKO2023-02-04
L
vs Michael Morales · KO/TKO2022-07-30
Islam Dulatov no UFC fights on record
Claude HIT
Islam Dulatov
68%win confidence
KO/TKO 22%
Submission 15%
Decision 63%
Dulatov's extraordinary 14.27 SLPM triples Fugitt's 4.72 output, creating overwhelming pressure. His 100% takedown accuracy (5.49 per fight) against Fugitt's 50% TDD suggests wrestling control. While Fugitt has UFC experience (3-2 record), Dulatov's volume-heavy approach and 8.78 striking differenti...
GPT HIT
Islam Dulatov
77%win confidence
KO/TKO 25%
Submission 5%
Decision 70%
Dulatov's striking volume (14.27 SLpM) and accuracy (56%) are significantly higher than Fugitt's, while Dulatov also boasts a perfect takedown accuracy and much higher takedown output. Fugitt's middling defensive metrics and lower offensive output suggest he will struggle to keep pace. However, Dula...
FINAL: Jimmy Crute by SUB Armbar
Crute LWLLW 742d out Prachnio LWLWL 517d out last 5
Jimmy Crute last fought 742 days ago, long layoff
L
vs Alonzo Menifield · SUB2023-07-08
W
vs Alonzo Menifield · M-DEC2023-02-11
L
vs Jamahal Hill · KO/TKO2021-12-04
L
vs Anthony Smith · KO/TKO2021-04-24
W
vs Modestas Bukauskas · KO/TKO2020-10-17
Marcin Prachnio last fought 517 days ago, long layoff
L
vs Modestas Bukauskas · SUB2024-02-17
W
vs Devin Clark · U-DEC2024-02-10
L
vs Vitor Petrino · SUB2023-07-08
W
vs William Knight · U-DEC2023-02-18
L
vs Philipe Lins · U-DEC2022-04-23
Claude HIT
Jimmy Crute
72%win confidence
KO/TKO 20%
Submission 55%
Decision 25%
Crute's superior grappling metrics (4.84 TD avg vs 0.15, 2.0 sub avg vs 0) combined with Prachnio's vulnerability to submissions (3 sub losses in last 5 fights) creates a clear path to victory. Prachnio's 53% TD defense and recent submission losses to Modestas Bukauskas and Devin Clark highlight his...
GPT HIT
Jimmy Crute
75%win confidence
KO/TKO 15%
Submission 55%
Decision 30%
Crute has a massive grappling advantage, with nearly 5 takedowns per fight and a high submission average, while Prachnio has poor takedown defense and almost no offensive grappling. Although Prachnio has a higher striking volume and accuracy, Crute has demonstrated better performance against common ...
FINAL: Ryan Spann by SUB Guillotine Choke
Spann LWLLW 448d out Brzeski LWLLL 223d out last 5
Ryan Spann last fought 448 days ago
L
vs Bogdan Guskov · KO/TKO2024-04-27
W
vs Ovince Saint Preux · SUB2024-04-13
L
vs Anthony Smith · S-DEC2023-08-26
L
vs Nikita Krylov · SUB2023-03-11
W
vs Dominick Reyes · KO/TKO2022-11-12
Lukasz Brzeski last fought 223 days ago
L
vs Kennedy Nzechukwu · KO/TKO Punch2024-12-07
W
vs Valter Walker · U-DEC2024-04-06
L
vs Mick Parkin · KO/TKO2024-02-17
L
vs Waldo Cortes-Acosta · KO/TKO2023-08-26
L
vs Karl Williams · U-DEC2023-03-11
Claude HIT
Ryan Spann
68%win confidence
KO/TKO 25%
Submission 50%
Decision 25%
Spann's move to heavyweight presents opportunities against Brzeski's poor 36% TD defense and 16.7% win rate. Spann's 1.7 sub average and recent back-to-back submission wins showcase his grappling threat. Brzeski's 1-5 UFC record with 3 KO losses indicates durability issues, while his striking volume...
GPT HIT
Ryan Spann
73%win confidence
KO/TKO 18%
Submission 52%
Decision 30%
Spann's grappling and submission rate are substantially higher than Brzeski's, while Brzeski's takedown defense is notably weak (36%). Spann is likely to exploit this defensive gap given his 1.7 submissions per fight and willingness to grapple. Although Brzeski holds a striking volume and accuracy e...
FINAL: Brunno Ferreira by SUB Armbar
Ferreira WWWLW 132d out McVey last 5
Brunno Ferreira last fought 132 days ago
W
vs Armen Petrosyan · SUB Armbar2025-03-08
W
vs Phil Hawes · KO/TKO2024-01-13
W
vs Dustin Stoltzfus · KO/TKO2024-01-06
L
vs Nursulton Ruziboev · KO/TKO2023-07-01
W
vs Gregory Rodrigues · KO/TKO2023-01-21
Jackson McVey no UFC fights on record
Claude HIT
Brunno Ferreira
78%win confidence
KO/TKO 70%
Submission 5%
Decision 25%
Ferreira's 4-1 record with 4 KO/TKO finishes demonstrates elite power at middleweight. McVey's UFC debut with no recorded statistics creates massive uncertainty. Ferreira's 4.99 SLPM and 54% accuracy indicate aggressive, effective striking. His recent 3-fight KO streak shows peak form, while McVey's...
GPT HIT
Brunno Ferreira
78%win confidence
KO/TKO 65%
Submission 5%
Decision 30%
Brunno Ferreira demonstrates clear statistical superiority in striking volume, accuracy, and defensive metrics, with significant UFC experience. Jackson McVey lacks any recorded UFC-level data, indicating either debut status or insufficient sample size, making his competitive level a major unknown. ...
FINAL: Carli Judice by KO/TKO Knee
Judice WL 126d out Caliari L 188d out last 5
Carli Judice last fought 126 days ago
W
vs Yuneisy Duben · KO/TKO Kick2025-03-15
L
vs Gabriella Fernandes · S-DEC2024-01-13
Nicolle Caliari last fought 188 days ago
L
vs Ernesta Kareckaite · S-DEC2025-01-11
Claude MISS
Nicolle Caliari
72%win confidence
KO/TKO 8%
Submission 67%
Decision 25%
This is a classic striker vs grappler matchup where Caliari's extreme grappling output (6.32 takedowns per fight, 6.3 submissions per fight) presents a nightmare scenario for Judice. Despite Judice's 70% takedown defense, Caliari's 66% takedown accuracy and relentless pressure will eventually break ...
GPT MISS
Nicolle Caliari
65%win confidence
KO/TKO 5%
Submission 50%
Decision 45%
Caliari's grappling metrics are elite, with 6.32 takedowns and 6.3 submissions attempted per fight, combined with a 66% takedown accuracy. Judice's 70% takedown defense is solid but untested against such volume, and her striking defense (52%) is vulnerable to takedown setups. Judice has a clear stri...