June 28, 2025
UFC 317: Topuria vs. Oliveira
Card complete. GPT 9/11 (82%) · Claude 9/11 (82%)
All results
Both models agree 11 of 12 fights
Jhonata Diniz over Alvin Hines
Both call KO/TKO
Claude 75%
GPT 85%
GPT 85%
Payton Talbott over Felipe Lima
Claude 78%
GPT 70%
GPT 70%
Jacobe Smith over Niko Price
Claude 59%
GPT 75%
GPT 75%
Gregory Rodrigues over Jack Hermansson
Claude 68%
GPT 65%
GPT 65%
Terrance McKinney over Viacheslav Borshchev
Both call Submission
Claude 68%
GPT 65%
GPT 65%
Ilia Topuria over Charles Oliveira
Claude 65%
GPT 65%
GPT 65%
Alexandre Pantoja over Kai Kara-France
Both call Decision
Claude 70%
GPT 60%
GPT 60%
Joshua Van over Brandon Royval
Claude 60%
GPT 70%
GPT 70%
Renato Moicano over Beneil Dariush
Both call Decision
Claude 65%
GPT 65%
GPT 65%
Hyder Amil over Jose Delgado
Claude 65%
GPT 65%
GPT 65%
Tracy Cortez over Viviane Araujo
Both call Decision
Claude 63%
GPT 60%
GPT 60%
Double locks: both at 75% or higher 1 fight
Jhonata Diniz over Alvin Hines
Both call KO/TKO
Claude 75%
GPT 85%
GPT 85%
Build your own list 11 match
Jhonata Diniz over Alvin Hines
Both call KO/TKO
Claude 75%
GPT 85%
GPT 85%
Payton Talbott over Felipe Lima
Claude 78%
GPT 70%
GPT 70%
Jacobe Smith over Niko Price
Claude 59%
GPT 75%
GPT 75%
Gregory Rodrigues over Jack Hermansson
Claude 68%
GPT 65%
GPT 65%
Terrance McKinney over Viacheslav Borshchev
Both call Submission
Claude 68%
GPT 65%
GPT 65%
Ilia Topuria over Charles Oliveira
Claude 65%
GPT 65%
GPT 65%
Alexandre Pantoja over Kai Kara-France
Both call Decision
Claude 70%
GPT 60%
GPT 60%
Joshua Van over Brandon Royval
Claude 60%
GPT 70%
GPT 70%
Renato Moicano over Beneil Dariush
Both call Decision
Claude 65%
GPT 65%
GPT 65%
Hyder Amil over Jose Delgado
Claude 65%
GPT 65%
GPT 65%
Tracy Cortez over Viviane Araujo
Both call Decision
Claude 63%
GPT 60%
GPT 60%
Win confidence is the model's probability that its pick wins: 55 to 64 is a shrug, 65 to 74 is confident, 75 and up is the model betting its reputation.
KO/TKO, Submission, Decision is how the model splits the ways the fight ends, out of 100.
Odds are the sportsbook moneyline with the bookmaker margin removed, so the two percentages sum to 100. When a model's confidence beats the market's implied number, that gap is the value.
Elo is an opponent adjusted rating built from every UFC fight since 1994. Click any Elo number on the card for the full explanation, including what the star means.
FINAL: Ilia Topuria by KO/TKO Punch
Topuria WWWWW 496d out Oliveira WLWLW 223d out last 5
Ilia Topuria last fought 496 days ago, long layoff
W
vs Alexander Volkanovski · KO/TKO2024-02-17
W
vs Josh Emmett · U-DEC2023-06-24
W
vs Bryce Mitchell · SUB2022-12-10
W
vs Jai Herbert · KO/TKO2022-03-19
W
vs Ryan Hall · KO/TKO2021-07-10
Charles Oliveira last fought 223 days ago
W
vs Michael Chandler · 2024-11-16
L
vs Arman Tsarukyan · S-DEC2024-04-13
W
vs Beneil Dariush · KO/TKO2023-06-10
L
vs Islam Makhachev · SUB2022-10-22
W
vs Justin Gaethje · SUB2022-05-07
Claude HIT
Ilia Topuria
65%win confidence
KO/TKO 55%
Submission 10%
Decision 35%
Topuria's exceptional striking accuracy (47%) combined with his significant power advantage gives him a clear path to victory against Oliveira's vulnerable defense (49%). While Oliveira possesses a substantial submission threat (2.7 submissions per fight vs Topuria's 1.1), Topuria's elite takedown d...
GPT HIT
Ilia Topuria
65%win confidence
KO/TKO 25%
Submission 20%
Decision 55%
Topuria has a significantly higher strike defense and takedown defense, which will allow him to mitigate Oliveira's attacks and control the fight pace. His superior striking volume and accuracy could also grant him an edge in the stand-up exchanges.
FINAL: Alexandre Pantoja by SUB Rear Naked Choke
Pantoja WWWWW 202d out Kara-France WLLWW 475d out last 5
Alexandre Pantoja last fought 202 days ago
W
vs Kai Asakura · SUB Rear Naked Choke2024-12-07
W
vs Brandon Royval · U-DEC2023-12-16
W
vs Steve Erceg · U-DEC2023-12-09
W
vs Brandon Moreno · S-DEC2023-07-08
W
vs Alex Perez · SUB2022-07-30
Kai Kara-France last fought 475 days ago, long layoff
W
vs Steve Erceg · KO/TKO2024-03-09
L
vs Amir Albazi · S-DEC2023-06-03
L
vs Brandon Moreno · KO/TKO2022-07-30
W
vs Askar Askarov · U-DEC2022-03-26
W
vs Cody Garbrandt · KO/TKO2021-12-11
Claude HIT
Alexandre Pantoja
70%win confidence
KO/TKO 15%
Submission 25%
Decision 60%
Pantoja holds a significant historical edge over Kara-France, having performed better against 7 of their 8 common opponents (87.5% win rate vs 50%). While Kara-France possesses superior striking defense (65% vs Pantoja's 50%) and a better striking differential (+1.34 vs Pantoja's +0.44), Pantoja's g...
GPT HIT
Alexandre Pantoja
60%win confidence
KO/TKO 20%
Submission 10%
Decision 70%
Pantoja has a higher win rate and effective strike rate, and has performed better against common opponents. Pantoja also has a stronger takedown game which could lead to control of the fight.
FINAL: Joshua Van by U-DEC
Royval WWWLW 427d out Van WWWWL 21d out last 5
Brandon Royval last fought 427 days ago
W
vs Tatsuro Taira · S-DEC2024-04-27
W
vs Tatsuro Taira · S-DEC2024-04-20
W
vs Brandon Moreno · S-DEC2024-02-24
L
vs Alexandre Pantoja · U-DEC2023-12-16
W
vs Matheus Nicolau · KO/TKO2023-04-15
Joshua Van last fought 21 days ago
W
vs Bruno Silva · KO/TKO Punches2025-06-07
W
vs Rei Tsuruya · U-DEC2025-03-08
W
vs Cody Durden · U-DEC2024-12-07
W
vs Edgar Chairez · U-DEC2024-03-30
L
vs Charles Johnson · KO/TKO2024-02-03
Claude HIT
Joshua Van
60%win confidence
KO/TKO 30%
Submission 15%
Decision 55%
Van's extraordinary striking volume (8.39 SLPM vs Royval's 4.46) creates a significant offensive advantage that will be difficult for Royval to overcome. While Royval possesses better striking defense (47% vs Van's 58%), Van's superior takedown defense (83% vs Royval's 45%) will likely neutralize Ro...
GPT HIT
Joshua Van
70%win confidence
KO/TKO 60%
Submission 10%
Decision 30%
Joshua Van has a higher significant strike per minute rate (8.39 vs 4.46) and a higher striking accuracy (53% vs 39%). Additionally, Joshua's takedown defense is significantly better than Brandon's takedown accuracy, suggesting that Brandon might struggle to take the fight to the ground.
FINAL: Beneil Dariush by U-DEC
Dariush LLWWW 573d out Moicano LWWWW 160d out last 5
Beneil Dariush last fought 573 days ago, long layoff
L
vs Arman Tsarukyan · KO/TKO2023-12-02
L
vs Charles Oliveira · KO/TKO2023-06-10
W
vs Mateusz Gamrot · U-DEC2022-10-22
W
vs Tony Ferguson · U-DEC2021-05-15
W
vs Diego Ferreira · S-DEC2021-02-06
Renato Moicano last fought 160 days ago
L
vs Islam Makhachev · SUB D'Arce Choke2025-01-18
W
vs Jalin Turner · KO/TKO2024-04-13
W
vs Benoit Saint Denis · KO/TKO2024-04-06
W
vs Drew Dober · U-DEC2024-02-03
W
vs Brad Riddell · SUB2022-11-12
Claude MISS
Renato Moicano
65%win confidence
KO/TKO 25%
Submission 15%
Decision 60%
Moicano enters this bout with significant momentum, riding a 5-fight win streak while Dariush has dropped his last two by knockout. Moicano's striking metrics (4.42 SLPM vs Dariush's 3.78) give him a volume advantage, and his superior striking defense (60% vs 57%) should allow him to manage distance...
GPT MISS
Renato Moicano
65%win confidence
KO/TKO 20%
Submission 15%
Decision 65%
Based on the statistical analysis, Moicano has a slight edge over Dariush in terms of striking volume and accuracy. While Dariush has a better takedown defense, Moicano's overall defensive efficiency and effective strike rate are superior. Also, Moicano has performed better against common opponents.
FINAL: Payton Talbott by U-DEC
Talbott LWWW 160d out Lima WW 195d out last 5
Payton Talbott last fought 160 days ago
L
vs Raoni Barcelos · U-DEC2025-01-18
W
vs Cameron Saaiman · KO/TKO2024-03-23
W
vs Yanis Ghemmouri · KO/TKO2024-01-27
W
vs Nick Aguirre · SUB2023-11-18
Felipe Lima last fought 195 days ago
W
vs Miles Johns · U-DEC2024-12-14
W
vs Muhammad Naimov · SUB2024-01-20
Claude HIT
Payton Talbott
78%win confidence
KO/TKO 65%
Submission 10%
Decision 25%
Talbott presents a significant striking advantage with 8.38 SLPM compared to Lima's 3.29, creating a massive +5.09 differential. While Lima has better striking defense (64% vs 51%), Talbott's volume and accuracy (55%) will overwhelm Lima's defenses. Talbott's 90% takedown defense will neutralize Lim...
GPT HIT
Payton Talbott
70%win confidence
KO/TKO 20%
Submission 10%
Decision 70%
Talbott's superior striking volume and accuracy, coupled with his excellent takedown defense, should give him the edge in this fight. While Lima has a decent takedown game, it is unlikely he will be able to control the fight on the ground given Talbott's defense. The fight will likely go the distanc...
FINAL: Gregory Rodrigues by KO/TKO Punch
Hermansson WLWLW 503d out Rodrigues LWWWL 132d out last 5
Jack Hermansson last fought 503 days ago, long layoff
W
vs Joe Pyfer · U-DEC2024-02-10
L
vs Roman Dolidze · KO/TKO2022-12-03
W
vs Chris Curtis · U-DEC2022-07-23
L
vs Sean Strickland · S-DEC2022-02-05
W
vs Edmen Shahbazyan · U-DEC2021-05-22
Gregory Rodrigues last fought 132 days ago
L
vs Jared Cannonier · KO/TKO Punches2025-02-15
W
vs Christian Leroy Duncan · U-DEC2024-02-17
W
vs Brad Tavares · KO/TKO2024-02-10
W
vs Denis Tiuliulin · KO/TKO2023-08-19
L
vs Brunno Ferreira · KO/TKO2023-01-21
Claude HIT
Gregory Rodrigues
68%win confidence
KO/TKO 55%
Submission 15%
Decision 30%
Rodrigues holds key advantages in this matchup despite similar striking metrics. While Hermansson has slightly better striking defense (56% vs 51%), Rodrigues lands at higher volume (5.52 vs 5.09 SLPM) with better accuracy (56% vs 44%). The critical difference is in grappling - Rodrigues has 100% ta...
GPT HIT
Gregory Rodrigues
65%win confidence
KO/TKO 30%
Submission 20%
Decision 50%
Gregory Rodrigues has a higher striking accuracy, volume, and takedown average. Although Jack Hermansson has a better takedown defense, Rodrigues' overall statistics give him a slight edge in this matchup.
FINAL: Jose Delgado by KO/TKO Knee
Amil WWW 118d out Delgado W 132d out last 5
Hyder Amil last fought 118 days ago
W
vs William Gomis · S-DEC2025-03-01
W
vs Fernie Garcia · KO/TKO2024-02-10
W
vs JeongYeong Lee · KO/TKO2024-02-10
Jose Delgado last fought 132 days ago
W
vs Connor Matthews · KO/TKO Punches2025-02-15
Claude MISS
Hyder Amil
65%win confidence
KO/TKO 50%
Submission 25%
Decision 25%
This matchup presents a classic striker vs grappler dynamic. Amil has superior striking defense (61% vs 48%) with similar volume (6.31 vs 6.23 SLPM), giving him a significant edge in striking exchanges. While Delgado has impressive takedown metrics (7.01 TDAvg, 75% accuracy), Amil's 78% takedown def...
GPT MISS
Hyder Amil
65%win confidence
KO/TKO 30%
Submission 10%
Decision 60%
Amil's superior striking accuracy and defensive efficiency in combination with a strong takedown defense make him a solid pick. Delgado's striking accuracy and defense are weaker, which could lead to him absorbing more damage over the course of the fight. Even though Delgado has a high takedown aver...
FINAL: Tracy Cortez by U-DEC
Araujo WLWLL 223d out Cortez LWWWW 510d out last 5
Viviane Araujo last fought 223 days ago
W
vs Karine Silva · 2024-11-16
L
vs Natalia Silva · U-DEC2024-02-03
W
vs Jennifer Maia · U-DEC2023-10-14
L
vs Amanda Ribas · U-DEC2023-03-04
L
vs Alexa Grasso · U-DEC2022-10-15
Tracy Cortez last fought 510 days ago, long layoff
L
vs Rose Namajunas · U-DEC2024-02-03
W
vs Jasmine Jasudavicius · U-DEC2023-09-16
W
vs Melissa Gatto · U-DEC2022-05-07
W
vs Justine Kish · S-DEC2021-04-17
W
vs Stephanie Egger · U-DEC2020-10-10
Claude HIT
Tracy Cortez
63%win confidence
KO/TKO 15%
Submission 10%
Decision 75%
Cortez presents a more well-rounded skillset with superior striking differential (+0.70 vs -0.85) and comparable takedown ability. While Araujo has better takedown defense (78% vs 62%), Cortez's pressure-based approach and cleaner striking should allow her to control the pace. Araujo's recent form s...
GPT HIT
Tracy Cortez
60%win confidence
KO/TKO 20%
Submission 10%
Decision 70%
Tracy Cortez has a slightly higher win rate and better striking differential. Although Viviane Araujo has a higher takedown defense, Cortez's takedown average per fight is superior, which may allow her to control the fight and score points with the judges.
FINAL: Terrance McKinney by SUB Guillotine Choke
McKinney WLWWL 146d out Borshchev LWLLW 139d out last 5
Terrance McKinney last fought 146 days ago
W
vs Damir Hadzovic · KO/TKO Punches2025-02-01
L
vs Esteban Ribovics · KO/TKO2023-12-16
W
vs Brendon Marotte · KO/TKO2023-10-14
W
vs Mike Breeden · KO/TKO2023-08-12
L
vs Nazim Sadykhov · SUB2023-07-15
Viacheslav Borshchev last fought 139 days ago
L
vs Tom Nolan · U-DEC2025-02-08
W
vs James Llontop · S-DEC2024-03-16
L
vs Chase Hooper · SUB2023-12-16
L
vs Nazim Sadykhov · M-DEC2023-11-11
W
vs Maheshate · KO/TKO2023-05-20
Claude HIT
Terrance McKinney
68%win confidence
KO/TKO 25%
Submission 45%
Decision 30%
This matchup heavily favors McKinney's grappling against Borshchev's striking-heavy approach. McKinney averages 3.45 takedowns per fight with a 36% accuracy rate, while Borshchev has zero recorded takedowns and a concerning 35% takedown defense. The stylistic clash is significant - McKinney's explos...
GPT HIT
Terrance McKinney
65%win confidence
KO/TKO 15%
Submission 60%
Decision 25%
Given the significant difference in takedown defense, McKinney is likely to control the fight on the ground and potentially secure a submission win.
FINAL: Jacobe Smith by SUB Rear Naked Choke
Price LWLLW 427d out Smith W 167d out last 5
Niko Price last fought 427 days ago
L
vs Themba Gorimbo · U-DEC2024-04-27
W
vs Alex Morono · U-DEC2024-01-01
L
vs Robbie Lawler · KO/TKO2023-07-08
L
vs Phil Rowe · KO/TKO2022-12-03
W
vs Alex Oliveira · U-DEC2021-10-02
Jacobe Smith last fought 167 days ago
W
vs Preston Parsons · KO/TKO Punch2025-01-11
Claude HIT
Jacobe Smith
59%win confidence
KO/TKO 25%
Submission 15%
Decision 60%
Despite Price's significant experience advantage, Smith's statistical profile reveals exceptional efficiency that could translate to UFC success. Smith's striking accuracy (76% vs Price's 42%) and volume (6.95 SLPM vs 5.21) indicate a technical advantage on the feet. More significantly, Smith's wres...
GPT HIT
Jacobe Smith
75%win confidence
KO/TKO 65%
Submission 15%
Decision 20%
Jacobe Smith has a significant advantage in striking, with a higher striking volume and accuracy than Niko Price. His takedown average is also significantly higher than Price's, suggesting a strong ground game. However, his takedown defense is notably weak, indicating a potential vulnerability.
FINAL: Jhonata Diniz by U-DEC
Diniz LWW 223d out Hines last 5
Jhonata Diniz last fought 223 days ago
L
vs Marcin Tybura · 2024-11-16
W
vs Austen Lane · KO/TKO2024-04-27
W
vs Karl Williams · U-DEC2024-03-02
Alvin Hines no UFC fights on record
Claude HIT
Jhonata Diniz
75%win confidence
KO/TKO 65%
Submission 5%
Decision 30%
Diniz brings significant striking advantages with a 4.09 SLPM and +1.34 striking differential, while Hines is making his UFC debut with limited data. Diniz has shown moderate upward trajectory with two recent wins including a KO/TKO victory in April 2024. His orthodox stance and 79" reach provide ph...
GPT HIT
Jhonata Diniz
85%win confidence
KO/TKO 70%
Submission 0%
Decision 30%
Jhonata Diniz has a significantly higher striking accuracy and volume, as well as a superior defensive efficiency. Alvin Hines has no recorded stats, suggesting this may be his first professional fight or he has not had notable performances in the past.
Claude
Jackson McVey
60%win confidence
KO/TKO 30%
Submission 20%
Decision 50%
With both fighters making their UFC debuts and limited statistical data available, this prediction relies on subtle technical advantages. McVey's southpaw stance typically creates challenging angles for orthodox fighters, and at 26 years old compared to Ewert's 32, McVey likely possesses a slight at...
GPT
Unknown
55%win confidence
KO/TKO 33%
Submission 33%
Decision 34%
Both fighters lack statistical data and have no known record of performance. The prediction is based on limited data available.