June 7, 2025
UFC 316: Dvalishvili vs. O'Malley 2
Card complete. GPT 10/12 (83%) · Claude 9/12 (75%)
All results
Both models agree 11 of 13 fights
Wang Cong over Ariane da Silva
Claude 75%
GPT 80%
GPT 80%
MarQuel Mederos over Mark Choinski
Claude 70%
GPT 85%
GPT 85%
Azamat Murzakanov over Brendson Ribeiro
Both call KO/TKO
Claude 80%
GPT 70%
GPT 70%
Joshua Van over Bruno Silva
Both call Decision
Claude 75%
GPT 70%
GPT 70%
Jeka Saragih over JooSang Yoo
Claude 65%
GPT 80%
GPT 80%
Kayla Harrison over Julianna Pena
Both call Decision
Claude 68%
GPT 75%
GPT 75%
Merab Dvalishvili over Sean O'Malley
Both call Decision
Claude 72%
GPT 70%
GPT 70%
Mario Bautista over Patchy Mix
Both call Decision
Claude 65%
GPT 75%
GPT 75%
Vicente Luque over Kevin Holland
Both call Decision
Claude 65%
GPT 65%
GPT 65%
Joe Pyfer over Kelvin Gastelum
Claude 60%
GPT 65%
GPT 65%
Quillan Salkilld over Yanal Ashmouz
Both call Decision
Claude 60%
GPT 65%
GPT 65%
Double locks: both at 75% or higher 1 fight
Wang Cong over Ariane da Silva
Claude 75%
GPT 80%
GPT 80%
Build your own list 11 match
Wang Cong over Ariane da Silva
Claude 75%
GPT 80%
GPT 80%
MarQuel Mederos over Mark Choinski
Claude 70%
GPT 85%
GPT 85%
Azamat Murzakanov over Brendson Ribeiro
Both call KO/TKO
Claude 80%
GPT 70%
GPT 70%
Joshua Van over Bruno Silva
Both call Decision
Claude 75%
GPT 70%
GPT 70%
Jeka Saragih over JooSang Yoo
Claude 65%
GPT 80%
GPT 80%
Kayla Harrison over Julianna Pena
Both call Decision
Claude 68%
GPT 75%
GPT 75%
Merab Dvalishvili over Sean O'Malley
Both call Decision
Claude 72%
GPT 70%
GPT 70%
Mario Bautista over Patchy Mix
Both call Decision
Claude 65%
GPT 75%
GPT 75%
Vicente Luque over Kevin Holland
Both call Decision
Claude 65%
GPT 65%
GPT 65%
Joe Pyfer over Kelvin Gastelum
Claude 60%
GPT 65%
GPT 65%
Quillan Salkilld over Yanal Ashmouz
Both call Decision
Claude 60%
GPT 65%
GPT 65%
Win confidence is the model's probability that its pick wins: 55 to 64 is a shrug, 65 to 74 is confident, 75 and up is the model betting its reputation.
KO/TKO, Submission, Decision is how the model splits the ways the fight ends, out of 100.
Odds are the sportsbook moneyline with the bookmaker margin removed, so the two percentages sum to 100. When a model's confidence beats the market's implied number, that gap is the value.
Elo is an opponent adjusted rating built from every UFC fight since 1994. Click any Elo number on the card for the full explanation, including what the star means.
FINAL: Merab Dvalishvili by SUB Guillotine Choke
Dvalishvili WWWWW 139d out O'Malley LWWWL 434d out last 5
Merab Dvalishvili last fought 139 days ago
W
vs Umar Nurmagomedov · U-DEC2025-01-18
W
vs Sean O'Malley · U-DEC2024-03-30
W
vs Henry Cejudo · U-DEC2024-02-17
W
vs Petr Yan · U-DEC2023-03-11
W
vs Jose Aldo · U-DEC2022-08-20
Sean O'Malley last fought 434 days ago
L
vs Merab Dvalishvili · U-DEC2024-03-30
W
vs Marlon Vera · U-DEC2024-03-09
W
vs Aljamain Sterling · KO/TKO2023-08-19
W
vs Petr Yan · S-DEC2022-10-22
L
vs Pedro Munhoz · CNC2022-07-02
Claude HIT
Merab Dvalishvili
72%win confidence
KO/TKO 10%
Submission 15%
Decision 75%
Dvalishvili's relentless wrestling and cardio present a significant stylistic challenge for O'Malley. While O'Malley has superior striking metrics (6.7 SLPM vs 4.35, 61% accuracy vs 42%), Merab's 6.09 takedowns per fight will likely neutralize O'Malley's range control. O'Malley's 61% TDD will be tes...
GPT HIT
Merab Dvalishvili
70%win confidence
KO/TKO 20%
Submission 10%
Decision 70%
Merab Dvalishvili is expected to win due to his superior takedown average and defense. His striking accuracy and defense are also noteworthy. While Sean O'Malley shows a higher striking volume and accuracy, his takedown defense is lower, which could lead to him being controlled on the ground by Dval...
FINAL: Kayla Harrison by SUB Kimura
Pena WLWWL 420d out Harrison WW 420d out last 5
Julianna Pena last fought 420 days ago
W
vs Raquel Pennington · S-DEC2024-04-13
L
vs Amanda Nunes · U-DEC2022-07-30
W
vs Amanda Nunes · SUB2021-12-11
W
vs Sara McMann · SUB2021-01-23
L
vs Germaine de Randamie · SUB2020-10-03
Kayla Harrison last fought 420 days ago
W
vs Holly Holm · SUB2024-04-13
W
vs Ketlen Vieira · U-DEC2024-04-13
Claude HIT
Kayla Harrison
68%win confidence
KO/TKO 20%
Submission 25%
Decision 55%
Harrison brings Olympic-level grappling credentials and superior physical attributes to this matchup. Her striking differential (+3.68 vs Pena's +0.72) and defensive metrics (64% vs 57%) give her a clear advantage on the feet. While Pena has shown tremendous heart and durability, Harrison's 100% TDD...
GPT HIT
Kayla Harrison
75%win confidence
KO/TKO 30%
Submission 20%
Decision 50%
Harrison's superior striking accuracy and volume, combined with her perfect takedown defense, should allow her to control the fight and outscore Pena.
FINAL: Joe Pyfer by U-DEC
Gastelum WLWLL 503d out Pyfer LWWWW 482d out last 5
Kelvin Gastelum last fought 503 days ago, long layoff
W
vs Daniel Rodriguez · U-DEC2024-01-20
L
vs Sean Brady · SUB2023-12-02
W
vs Chris Curtis · U-DEC2023-04-08
L
vs Jared Cannonier · U-DEC2021-08-21
L
vs Robert Whittaker · U-DEC2021-04-17
Joe Pyfer last fought 482 days ago, long layoff
L
vs Jack Hermansson · U-DEC2024-02-10
W
vs Marc-Andre Barriault · KO/TKO2024-01-27
W
vs Abdul Razak Alhassan · SUB2023-10-07
W
vs Gerald Meerschaert · KO/TKO2023-04-08
W
vs Alen Amedovski · KO/TKO2022-09-17
Claude HIT
Joe Pyfer
60%win confidence
KO/TKO 55%
Submission 15%
Decision 30%
Pyfer brings significant physical advantages to this matchup with his 5-inch height and 4-inch reach advantage over Gastelum. While their striking volume is nearly identical (Gastelum 3.74 vs Pyfer 3.72 SLPM), Pyfer's finishing ability and power give him an edge. Gastelum has the superior striking d...
GPT HIT
Joe Pyfer
65%win confidence
KO/TKO 25%
Submission 25%
Decision 50%
Joe Pyfer has a higher win rate and performs well against opponents with similar styles to Kelvin Gastelum. Despite a similar striking volume and accuracy, Pyfer's higher takedown average and submission average could be key in a close fight.
FINAL: Mario Bautista by U-DEC
Bautista WWWWW 420d out Mix last 5
Mario Bautista last fought 420 days ago
W
vs Jose Aldo · S-DEC2024-04-13
W
vs Ricky Simon · U-DEC2024-01-13
W
vs Da'Mon Blackshear · U-DEC2023-08-19
W
vs Guido Cannetti · SUB2023-03-11
W
vs Benito Lopez · SUB2022-11-05
Patchy Mix no UFC fights on record
Claude HIT
Mario Bautista
65%win confidence
KO/TKO 25%
Submission 15%
Decision 60%
Bautista brings UFC-proven striking volume (5.33 SLPM) and well-rounded skills against Mix's UFC debut. While Mix has elite submission skills from his Bellator career, Bautista's 66% takedown defense and switch stance versatility should allow him to keep the fight standing where he has the clear adv...
GPT HIT
Mario Bautista
75%win confidence
KO/TKO 20%
Submission 10%
Decision 70%
Mario Bautista has a significant advantage in both striking and grappling statistics. With Patchy Mix's lack of recorded stats, it suggests he is less experienced or less effective in fights. Bautista's superior Striking and Defense rates increase his chances of winning.
FINAL: Kevin Holland by SUB Anaconda Choke
Luque WLWLL 181d out Holland WLLLW 77d out last 5
Vicente Luque last fought 181 days ago
W
vs Themba Gorimbo · SUB Anaconda Choke2024-12-07
L
vs Joaquin Buckley · KO/TKO2024-03-30
W
vs Rafael Dos Anjos · U-DEC2023-08-12
L
vs Geoff Neal · KO/TKO2022-08-06
L
vs Belal Muhammad · U-DEC2022-04-16
Kevin Holland last fought 77 days ago
W
vs Gunnar Nelson · U-DEC2025-03-22
L
vs Reinier de Ridder · SUB Rear Naked Choke2025-01-18
L
vs Roman Dolidze · KO/TKO2024-04-13
L
vs Michael Page · U-DEC2024-03-09
W
vs Michal Oleksiejczuk · SUB2024-01-01
Claude MISS
Vicente Luque
65%win confidence
KO/TKO 30%
Submission 15%
Decision 55%
Luque possesses the more technically sound striking arsenal with superior defense (52% vs 50%) and will likely neutralize Holland's reach advantage through pressure fighting and leg kicks. Holland's recent form shows vulnerability, losing his last three fights including two by KO/TKO, while Luque ha...
GPT MISS
Vicente Luque
65%win confidence
KO/TKO 30%
Submission 20%
Decision 50%
Luque has a higher striking volume and accuracy, along with a better takedown defense. Although Holland has a physical advantage, Luque's overall striking and grappling statistics are superior.
FINAL: Joshua Van by KO/TKO Punches
Silva LLLWL 28d out Van WWWLW 90d out last 5
Bruno Silva last fought 28 days ago
L
vs Marc-Andre Barriault · KO/TKO Elbows2025-05-10
L
vs Manel Kape · KO/TKO Punches2024-12-14
L
vs Chris Weidman · U-DEC2024-03-30
W
vs Cody Durden · KO/TKO2024-02-10
L
vs Shara Magomedov · U-DEC2023-10-21
Joshua Van last fought 90 days ago
W
vs Rei Tsuruya · U-DEC2025-03-08
W
vs Cody Durden · U-DEC2024-12-07
W
vs Edgar Chairez · U-DEC2024-03-30
L
vs Charles Johnson · KO/TKO2024-02-03
W
vs Felipe Bunes · KO/TKO2024-01-13
Claude HIT
Joshua Van
75%win confidence
KO/TKO 20%
Submission 5%
Decision 75%
Van holds significant statistical advantages across multiple dimensions. His striking volume (8.39 SLPM vs Silva's 4.12) and accuracy (53% vs 49%) give him a clear edge in the stand-up exchanges. Van's defense is also markedly better at 58% compared to Silva's 41%, suggesting Silva will absorb signi...
GPT HIT
Joshua Van
70%win confidence
KO/TKO 30%
Submission 10%
Decision 60%
Joshua Van has a higher strike rate and better takedown accuracy and defense. His overall win rate is also higher.
FINAL: Azamat Murzakanov by KO/TKO Punches
Murzakanov LWWWW 202d out Ribeiro WLLL 84d out last 5
Azamat Murzakanov last fought 202 days ago
L
vs Nikita Krylov · 2024-11-16
W
vs Alonzo Menifield · KO/TKO2024-02-24
W
vs Dustin Jacoby · U-DEC2023-04-15
W
vs Devin Clark · KO/TKO2022-08-13
W
vs Tafon Nchukwi · KO/TKO2022-03-12
Brendson Ribeiro last fought 84 days ago
W
vs Diyar Nurgozhay · SUB Kimura2025-03-15
L
vs win · 2024-11-02
L
vs Zhang Mingyang · KO/TKO2024-02-17
L
vs Magomed Gadzhiyasulov · M-DEC2024-01-20
Claude HIT
Azamat Murzakanov
80%win confidence
KO/TKO 65%
Submission 5%
Decision 30%
Murzakanov holds decisive advantages in striking metrics with superior volume (4.72 SLPM vs 3.08), accuracy (56% vs 46%), and defense (61% vs 49%). His southpaw stance will create angles that Ribeiro struggles to defend against. Ribeiro's 0% takedown defense is particularly concerning against Murzak...
GPT HIT
Azamat Murzakanov
70%win confidence
KO/TKO 60%
Submission 10%
Decision 30%
Murzakanov has a higher striking accuracy and volume. Also, Ribeiro's takedown defense is weak which can be exploited by Murzakanov. Murzakanov's significant striking and takedown defense stats also suggest he may be more successful in keeping the fight standing where he can use his striking advanta...
Spivac LWLWW 139d out Cortes-Acosta WWWLW 510d out last 5
Serghei Spivac last fought 139 days ago
L
vs Jailton Almeida · KO/TKO Punches2025-01-18
W
vs Marcin Tybura · SUB2024-03-02
L
vs Ciryl Gane · KO/TKO2023-09-02
W
vs Derrick Lewis · SUB2023-02-04
W
vs Augusto Sakai · KO/TKO2022-08-06
Waldo Cortes-Acosta last fought 510 days ago, long layoff
W
vs Andrei Arlovski · U-DEC2024-01-13
W
vs Robelis Despaigne · U-DEC2023-12-16
W
vs Lukasz Brzeski · KO/TKO2023-08-26
L
vs Marcos Rogerio de Lima · U-DEC2023-04-29
W
vs Chase Sherman · U-DEC2022-11-19
Claude
Serghei Spivac
65%win confidence
KO/TKO 25%
Submission 40%
Decision 35%
Spivac possesses a significant grappling advantage that should prove decisive against Cortes-Acosta's striking-heavy approach. While Cortes-Acosta has the superior striking metrics (5.64 SLPM vs 3.51 SLPM) and a +2.04 striking differential, Spivac's wrestling credentials (4.63 TDAvg, 65% TDAcc) crea...
GPT
Waldo Cortes-Acosta
65%win confidence
KO/TKO 25%
Submission 10%
Decision 65%
Cortes-Acosta has a higher strike rate and a better defensive efficiency. While Spivac has a higher takedown average, Cortes-Acosta's takedown defense should mitigate this advantage. Both fighters have a similar striker style, but Cortes-Acosta's volume and accuracy give him the edge in a likely sta...
FINAL: Andreas Gustafsson by U-DEC
Williams LWWLW 111d out Gustafsson last 5
Khaos Williams last fought 111 days ago
L
vs Gabriel Bonfim · SUB D'Arce Choke2025-02-15
W
vs Carlston Harris · KO/TKO2023-12-23
W
vs Rolando Bedoya · S-DEC2023-05-06
L
vs Randy Brown · S-DEC2022-05-07
W
vs Miguel Baeza · KO/TKO2021-11-13
Andreas Gustafsson no UFC fights on record
Claude MISS
Khaos Williams
70%win confidence
KO/TKO 60%
Submission 5%
Decision 35%
Williams brings explosive striking power and proven UFC-level experience against Gustafsson, who despite impressive regional stats (77% striking accuracy, 4.56 SLPM) will face a significant step up in competition. Williams' 4-inch reach advantage (77" vs 73") will allow him to control distance and l...
GPT HIT
Andreas Gustafsson
65%win confidence
KO/TKO 20%
Submission 10%
Decision 70%
Despite Williams' higher SLPM, Gustafsson's superior striking accuracy, takedown average and takedown accuracy combined with 100% takedown defense suggest a strategic advantage. The striking volume of both fighters is fairly close, but Gustafsson has a better differential value indicating his abilit...
FINAL: Wang Cong by U-DEC
Silva LWWWL 406d out Cong WWW 118d out last 5
Ariane da Silva last fought 406 days ago
L
vs Karine Silva · U-DEC2024-04-27
W
vs Casey O'Neill · SUB2023-12-16
W
vs Melissa Gatto · S-DEC2023-07-01
W
vs JJ Aldrich · U-DEC2023-03-11
L
vs Priscila Cachoeira · KO/TKO2022-08-13
Wang Cong last fought 118 days ago
W
vs Bruna Brasil · U-DEC2025-02-08
W
vs Gabriella Fernandes · 2024-11-23
W
vs Victoria Leonardo · KO/TKO2024-03-16
Claude HIT
Wang Cong
75%win confidence
KO/TKO 55%
Submission 15%
Decision 30%
Wang Cong presents a rare combination of statistical dominance that should overwhelm da Silva. Wang's striking metrics are exceptional (7.07 SLPM with 59% accuracy vs da Silva's 4.1 SLPM with 41% accuracy), creating a massive +6.34 striking differential compared to da Silva's marginal +0.14. Wang's ...
GPT HIT
Wang Cong
80%win confidence
KO/TKO 20%
Submission 60%
Decision 20%
Wang Cong has superior striking and grappling stats. She lands more strikes per minute and absorbs fewer strikes per minute. Additionally, her takedown average and submission average are significantly higher than Ariane da Silva's.
FINAL: JooSang Yoo by KO/TKO Punch
Saragih LWL 510d out Yoo last 5
Jeka Saragih last fought 510 days ago, long layoff
L
vs Westin Wilson · SUB2024-01-13
W
vs Lucas Alexander · KO/TKO2023-11-18
L
vs Anshul Jubli · KO/TKO2023-02-04
JooSang Yoo no UFC fights on record
Claude MISS
Jeka Saragih
65%win confidence
KO/TKO 55%
Submission 10%
Decision 35%
Saragih brings UFC-level experience and proven striking power against the UFC debutant Yoo. With a SLPM of 2.73 and a positive strike differential, Saragih has shown he can both absorb punishment (2.65 SApM) and deliver significant offense. His 80% takedown accuracy and 2.21 takedowns per fight prov...
GPT MISS
Jeka Saragih
80%win confidence
KO/TKO 10%
Submission 20%
Decision 70%
Given the statistical data available, Jeka Saragih shows superior skills in striking and grappling compared to JooSang Yoo whose stats are unavailable or at zero. Saragih's takedown accuracy and defense are notably high which could be a key factor in controlling the fight.
FINAL: Quillan Salkilld by U-DEC
Salkilld W 118d out Ashmouz WLW 441d out last 5
Quillan Salkilld last fought 118 days ago
W
vs Anshul Jubli · KO/TKO Punch2025-02-08
Yanal Ashmouz last fought 441 days ago
W
vs Trevor Peek · U-DEC2024-03-23
L
vs Chris Duncan · U-DEC2023-07-22
W
vs Sam Patterson · KO/TKO2023-03-18
Claude HIT
Quillan Salkilld
60%win confidence
KO/TKO 25%
Submission 20%
Decision 55%
Salkilld's superior physical attributes (3-inch height and 6-inch reach advantage) combined with his high-volume striking (5.4 SLPM vs Ashmouz's 2.94) create a significant edge in this matchup. While Ashmouz has more UFC experience and a 75% win rate, his negative strike differential (-1.6) suggests...
GPT HIT
Quillan Salkilld
65%win confidence
KO/TKO 20%
Submission 10%
Decision 70%
Quillan Salkilld has superior striking, landing more strikes per minute and having a higher striking accuracy. Additionally, Salkilld's takedown average and defense are significantly higher, suggesting a strong grappling game. However, Ashmouz's win rate and defensive efficiency should not be undere...
FINAL: MarQuel Mederos by U-DEC
Mederos WW 70d out Choinski last 5
MarQuel Mederos last fought 70 days ago
W
vs Austin Hubbard · S-DEC2025-03-29
W
vs Landon Quinones · U-DEC2024-02-03
Mark Choinski no UFC fights on record
Claude HIT
MarQuel Mederos
70%win confidence
KO/TKO 60%
Submission 10%
Decision 30%
Mederos brings a significant statistical advantage into this matchup with his proven UFC-caliber striking. His 4.39 SLPM with solid 45% accuracy and impressive 63% striking defense creates a +1.1 strike differential that should be decisive against the debuting Choinski. Mederos' 90% takedown defense...
GPT HIT
MarQuel Mederos
85%win confidence
KO/TKO 0%
Submission 0%
Decision 100%
Given the available data, MarQuel Mederos shows superior performance in striking accuracy, defensive efficiency and overall win rate. There is insufficient data on Mark Choinski's performance to predict any significant threat he might pose.