May 10, 2025
UFC 315: Muhammad vs. Della Maddalena
Card complete. GPT 7/12 (58%) · Claude 6/12 (50%)
All results
Both models agree 11 of 12 fights
Brad Katona over Bekzat Almakhan
Both call Decision
Claude 80%
GPT 75%
GPT 75%
Benoit Saint Denis over Kyle Prepolec
Claude 80%
GPT 65%
GPT 65%
Jose Aldo over Aiemann Zahabi
Both call Decision
Claude 70%
GPT 70%
GPT 70%
Jessica Andrade over Jasmine Jasudavicius
Claude 70%
GPT 70%
GPT 70%
Natalia Silva over Alexa Grasso
Both call Decision
Claude 65%
GPT 70%
GPT 70%
Mike Malott over Charles Radtke
Claude 65%
GPT 65%
GPT 65%
Ion Cutelaba over Modestas Bukauskas
Both call KO/TKO
Claude 65%
GPT 65%
GPT 65%
Daniel Santos over JeongYeong Lee
Both call Decision
Claude 65%
GPT 65%
GPT 65%
Valentina Shevchenko over Manon Fiorot
Both call Decision
Claude 60%
GPT 65%
GPT 65%
Navajo Stirling over Ivan Erslan
Both call Decision
Claude 60%
GPT 65%
GPT 65%
Bruno Silva over Marc-Andre Barriault
Claude 60%
GPT 60%
GPT 60%
Double locks: both at 75% or higher 1 fight
Brad Katona over Bekzat Almakhan
Both call Decision
Claude 80%
GPT 75%
GPT 75%
Build your own list 11 match
Brad Katona over Bekzat Almakhan
Both call Decision
Claude 80%
GPT 75%
GPT 75%
Benoit Saint Denis over Kyle Prepolec
Claude 80%
GPT 65%
GPT 65%
Jose Aldo over Aiemann Zahabi
Both call Decision
Claude 70%
GPT 70%
GPT 70%
Jessica Andrade over Jasmine Jasudavicius
Claude 70%
GPT 70%
GPT 70%
Natalia Silva over Alexa Grasso
Both call Decision
Claude 65%
GPT 70%
GPT 70%
Mike Malott over Charles Radtke
Claude 65%
GPT 65%
GPT 65%
Ion Cutelaba over Modestas Bukauskas
Both call KO/TKO
Claude 65%
GPT 65%
GPT 65%
Daniel Santos over JeongYeong Lee
Both call Decision
Claude 65%
GPT 65%
GPT 65%
Valentina Shevchenko over Manon Fiorot
Both call Decision
Claude 60%
GPT 65%
GPT 65%
Navajo Stirling over Ivan Erslan
Both call Decision
Claude 60%
GPT 65%
GPT 65%
Bruno Silva over Marc-Andre Barriault
Claude 60%
GPT 60%
GPT 60%
Win confidence is the model's probability that its pick wins: 55 to 64 is a shrug, 65 to 74 is confident, 75 and up is the model betting its reputation.
KO/TKO, Submission, Decision is how the model splits the ways the fight ends, out of 100.
Odds are the sportsbook moneyline with the bookmaker margin removed, so the two percentages sum to 100. When a model's confidence beats the market's implied number, that gap is the value.
Elo is an opponent adjusted rating built from every UFC fight since 1994. Click any Elo number on the card for the full explanation, including what the star means.
FINAL: Jack Della Maddalena by U-DEC
Muhammad WWWWW 447d out Maddalena WWWWW 426d out last 5
Belal Muhammad last fought 447 days ago
W
vs Leon Edwards · U-DEC2024-02-17
W
vs Gilbert Burns · U-DEC2023-05-06
W
vs Sean Brady · KO/TKO2022-10-22
W
vs Vicente Luque · U-DEC2022-04-16
W
vs Stephen Thompson · U-DEC2021-12-18
Jack Della Maddalena last fought 426 days ago
W
vs Gilbert Burns · KO/TKO2024-03-09
W
vs Kevin Holland · S-DEC2023-09-16
W
vs Bassil Hafez · S-DEC2023-07-15
W
vs Randy Brown · SUB2023-02-11
W
vs Danny Roberts · KO/TKO2022-11-19
Claude MISS
Belal Muhammad
65%win confidence
KO/TKO 15%
Submission 10%
Decision 75%
Muhammad presents a stylistic challenge for Della Maddalena with his wrestling-heavy approach and defensive striking. While JDM has superior striking metrics (6.74 SLPM vs 4.39, 53% accuracy vs 43%), Muhammad's takedown average (2.28 per fight) and excellent takedown defense (89%) will be the differ...
GPT HIT
Jack Della Maddalena
65%win confidence
KO/TKO 25%
Submission 15%
Decision 60%
Jack Della Maddalena has a higher strike volume and accuracy, and also a higher strike defense. Although Belal Muhammad has a higher takedown average and defense, Della Maddalena's takedown defense is also strong. The fight is likely to be mostly stand-up given the striking styles of both fighters.
FINAL: Valentina Shevchenko by U-DEC
Shevchenko WLLWW 406d out Fiorot WWWWW 406d out last 5
Valentina Shevchenko last fought 406 days ago
W
vs Alexa Grasso · U-DEC2024-03-30
L
vs Alexa Grasso · S-DEC2023-09-16
L
vs Alexa Grasso · SUB2023-03-04
W
vs Taila Santos · S-DEC2022-06-11
W
vs Lauren Murphy · KO/TKO2021-09-25
Manon Fiorot last fought 406 days ago
W
vs Erin Blanchfield · U-DEC2024-03-30
W
vs Rose Namajunas · U-DEC2023-09-02
W
vs Katlyn Cerminara · U-DEC2022-10-22
W
vs Jennifer Maia · U-DEC2022-03-26
W
vs Mayra Bueno Silva · U-DEC2021-10-16
Claude HIT
Valentina Shevchenko
60%win confidence
KO/TKO 20%
Submission 15%
Decision 65%
Despite Fiorot's impressive striking volume (6.26 SLPM vs Shevchenko's 3.16) and recent win streak, Shevchenko's technical diversity and championship experience will be decisive factors. Shevchenko holds significant advantages in takedown accuracy (64% vs 42%) and overall grappling efficiency, which...
GPT HIT
Valentina Shevchenko
65%win confidence
KO/TKO 25%
Submission 10%
Decision 65%
Shevchenko has a better takedown average and accuracy, which could play a significant role in the fight. She also has a higher striking defense and overall defensive efficiency, indicating that she can potentially avoid damage better than Fiorot.
FINAL: Aiemann Zahabi by U-DEC
Aldo LWLWW 392d out Zahabi LWWWW 189d out last 5
Jose Aldo last fought 392 days ago
L
vs Mario Bautista · S-DEC2024-04-13
W
vs Jonathan Martinez · U-DEC2023-12-09
L
vs Merab Dvalishvili · U-DEC2022-08-20
W
vs Rob Font · U-DEC2021-12-04
W
vs Pedro Munhoz · U-DEC2021-08-07
Aiemann Zahabi last fought 189 days ago
L
vs win · 2024-11-02
W
vs Javid Basharat · U-DEC2024-03-02
W
vs Aoriqileng · KO/TKO2023-06-10
W
vs Ricky Turcios · U-DEC2022-07-09
W
vs Drako Rodriguez · KO/TKO2021-02-20
Claude MISS
Jose Aldo
70%win confidence
KO/TKO 25%
Submission 5%
Decision 70%
Despite Aldo's recent mixed results, his technical advantages over Zahabi remain significant. Aldo's superior reach advantage (70" vs 68") combined with his legendary leg kicks and counter-striking will control the distance against Zahabi. While Zahabi has better striking defense (71% vs Aldo's 60%)...
GPT MISS
Jose Aldo
70%win confidence
KO/TKO 30%
Submission 10%
Decision 60%
Jose Aldo's higher takedown defense, combined with his striking accuracy and experience, are likely to give him an edge. Although Zahabi has a higher strike per minute rate, his lower takedown accuracy and defense may pose a challenge against Aldo.
FINAL: Natalia Silva by U-DEC
Grasso LWWWW 406d out Silva WWWWW 413d out last 5
Alexa Grasso last fought 406 days ago
L
vs Valentina Shevchenko · U-DEC2024-03-30
W
vs Valentina Shevchenko · S-DEC2023-09-16
W
vs Valentina Shevchenko · SUB2023-03-04
W
vs Viviane Araujo · U-DEC2022-10-15
W
vs Joanne Wood · SUB2022-03-26
Natalia Silva last fought 413 days ago
W
vs Jessica Andrade · U-DEC2024-03-23
W
vs Viviane Araujo · U-DEC2024-02-03
W
vs Andrea Lee · U-DEC2023-08-19
W
vs Victoria Leonardo · KO/TKO2023-05-20
W
vs Tereza Bleda · KO/TKO2022-11-19
Claude HIT
Natalia Silva
65%win confidence
KO/TKO 15%
Submission 5%
Decision 80%
Silva brings superior striking metrics (5.19 SLPM vs Grasso's 4.19) with better accuracy (47% vs 41%) and significantly better defensive striking (64% vs 58%). Silva's exceptional takedown defense (91%) will neutralize Grasso's already modest takedown game (40% accuracy). While Grasso has submission...
GPT HIT
Natalia Silva
70%win confidence
KO/TKO 20%
Submission 10%
Decision 70%
Natalia Silva has a higher striking volume, better strike accuracy, and superior defense, which gives her the advantage in stand-up exchanges. Although Alexa Grasso has a slightly better takedown average, Silva's takedown defense is significantly higher, suggesting that she'll be able to keep the fi...
FINAL: Benoit Saint Denis by SUB Arm Triangle
Denis LLWWW 399d out Prepolec LL 2065d out last 5
Benoit Saint Denis last fought 399 days ago
L
vs Renato Moicano · KO/TKO2024-04-06
L
vs Dustin Poirier · KO/TKO2024-03-09
W
vs Matt Frevola · KO/TKO2023-11-11
W
vs Thiago Moises · KO/TKO2023-09-02
W
vs Ismael Bonfim · SUB2023-07-01
Kyle Prepolec last fought 2065 days ago, long layoff
L
vs Austin Hubbard · U-DEC2019-09-14
L
vs Nordine Taleb · U-DEC2019-05-04
Claude HIT
Benoit Saint Denis
80%win confidence
KO/TKO 65%
Submission 20%
Decision 15%
Saint Denis holds significant advantages across multiple dimensions despite his recent setbacks. His southpaw-vs-southpaw matchup against Prepolec favors his higher-volume striking (5.17 SLPM vs 3.2) and vastly superior grappling metrics. Prepolec's 40% TDD will be severely tested against Saint Deni...
GPT HIT
Benoit Saint Denis
65%win confidence
KO/TKO 20%
Submission 15%
Decision 65%
Benoit Saint Denis has a higher strike volume and accuracy. His takedown average and defense also outperform Kyle Prepolec's. Even though Kyle has better strike defense, his overall stats are weaker.
FINAL: Mike Malott by KO/TKO Punch
Malott LLWWW 189d out Radtke LWLW 181d out last 5
Mike Malott last fought 189 days ago
L
vs win · 2024-11-02
L
vs Neil Magny · KO/TKO2024-01-20
W
vs Adam Fugitt · SUB2023-06-10
W
vs Yohan Lainesse · SUB2023-02-25
W
vs Mickey Gall · KO/TKO2022-04-09
Charles Radtke last fought 181 days ago
L
vs win · 2024-11-09
W
vs Gilbert Urbina · KO/TKO2024-02-03
L
vs Carlos Prates · KO/TKO2024-01-06
W
vs Blood Diamond · U-DEC2023-09-09
Claude HIT
Mike Malott
65%win confidence
KO/TKO 20%
Submission 45%
Decision 35%
This welterweight clash pits Malott's well-rounded game against Radtke's striking-focused approach. Malott's 4-inch height advantage and superior grappling credentials (2.27 TDs per fight, 0.8 submissions) create a clear path to victory against Radtke, who has perfect TDD (100%) but against limited ...
GPT HIT
Mike Malott
65%win confidence
KO/TKO 10%
Submission 15%
Decision 75%
Based on the data, Mike Malott has a stronger takedown game and higher striking volume than Charles Radtke. Despite Radtke's superior striking accuracy and defense, Malott's takedown threat can disrupt Radtke's striking rhythm. The fight is likely to go to a decision due to both fighters' lack of fi...
FINAL: Jasmine Jasudavicius by SUB Rear Naked Choke
Andrade WLWLL 392d out Jasudavicius WLWWL 97d out last 5
Jessica Andrade last fought 392 days ago
W
vs Marina Rodriguez · S-DEC2024-04-13
L
vs Natalia Silva · U-DEC2024-03-23
W
vs Mackenzie Dern · KO/TKO2023-11-11
L
vs Tatiana Suarez · SUB2023-08-05
L
vs Yan Xiaonan · KO/TKO2023-05-06
Jasmine Jasudavicius last fought 97 days ago
W
vs Mayra Bueno Silva · U-DEC2025-02-01
L
vs win · 2024-11-02
W
vs Fatima Kline · U-DEC2024-02-03
W
vs Priscila Cachoeira · SUB2024-01-20
L
vs Tracy Cortez · U-DEC2023-09-16
Claude MISS
Jessica Andrade
70%win confidence
KO/TKO 55%
Submission 10%
Decision 35%
This women's flyweight bout features a classic power vs. size dynamic. Despite giving up 6 inches in both height and reach, Andrade's exceptional volume (6.44 SLPM vs. Jasudavicius' 3.71) and power advantage should be the difference maker. Andrade's experience edge is massive, having faced elite com...
GPT MISS
Jessica Andrade
70%win confidence
KO/TKO 20%
Submission 10%
Decision 70%
Andrade's higher striking volume and accuracy, combined with her superior takedown accuracy and defense, make her the more likely victor. Although Jasudavicius has a higher overall win rate, the striking differential and takedown stats favor Andrade. The lack of significant data in ground control an...
FINAL: Modestas Bukauskas by S-DEC
Bukauskas WWLWW 76d out Cutelaba WWLWL 76d out last 5
Modestas Bukauskas last fought 76 days ago
W
vs Rafael Cerqueira · KO/TKO Punches2025-02-22
W
vs Marcin Prachnio · SUB2024-02-17
L
vs Vitor Petrino · KO/TKO2023-11-04
W
vs Zac Pauga · U-DEC2023-06-17
W
vs Tyson Pedro · U-DEC2023-02-11
Ion Cutelaba last fought 76 days ago
W
vs Ibo Aslan · SUB Arm Triangle2025-02-22
W
vs Ivan Erslan · S-DEC2024-04-06
L
vs Philipe Lins · U-DEC2024-03-09
W
vs Tanner Boser · KO/TKO2023-04-15
L
vs Kennedy Nzechukwu · KO/TKO2022-11-19
Claude MISS
Ion Cutelaba
65%win confidence
KO/TKO 55%
Submission 10%
Decision 35%
Cutelaba holds a significant edge in offensive wrestling (4.17 vs 0.37 TDAvg) and striking power. While Bukauskas has shown improved submission skills with his recent guillotine win, Cutelaba's aggressive blitzing style and superior takedown game will likely overwhelm him. Bukauskas absorbs 4.11 str...
GPT MISS
Ion Cutelaba
65%win confidence
KO/TKO 70%
Submission 10%
Decision 20%
Based on the stats, Ion Cutelaba has a higher strike volume and takedown average than Modestas Bukauskas. Additionally, Cutelaba's performance against common opponents has been superior.
FINAL: Navajo Stirling by U-DEC
Stirling W 146d out Erslan L 399d out last 5
Navajo Stirling last fought 146 days ago
W
vs Tuco Tokkos · U-DEC2024-12-14
Ivan Erslan last fought 399 days ago
L
vs Ion Cutelaba · S-DEC2024-04-06
Claude HIT
Navajo Stirling
60%win confidence
KO/TKO 25%
Submission 5%
Decision 70%
Stirling possesses significant advantages in striking volume (5.82 vs 2.6 SLPM) and reach (79" vs 72"). This 7-inch reach differential will be crucial in a matchup between two orthodox fighters. While Erslan has more UFC experience, his recent form shows consecutive losses and difficulty adapting to...
GPT HIT
Navajo Stirling
65%win confidence
KO/TKO 20%
Submission 10%
Decision 70%
Stirling's superior striking volume and defensive statistics suggest a striking-based decision victory, as both fighters have shown little grappling effectiveness.
FINAL: Marc-Andre Barriault by KO/TKO Elbows
Barriault LLWWL 468d out Silva LLWLL 146d out last 5
Marc-Andre Barriault last fought 468 days ago, long layoff
L
vs Joe Pyfer · KO/TKO2024-01-27
L
vs Chris Curtis · S-DEC2024-01-20
W
vs Eryk Anders · U-DEC2023-06-10
W
vs Julian Marquez · KO/TKO2023-03-04
L
vs Anthony Hernandez · SUB2022-09-17
Bruno Silva last fought 146 days ago
L
vs Manel Kape · KO/TKO Punches2024-12-14
L
vs Chris Weidman · U-DEC2024-03-30
W
vs Cody Durden · KO/TKO2024-02-10
L
vs Shara Magomedov · U-DEC2023-10-21
L
vs Brendan Allen · SUB2023-06-24
Claude MISS
Bruno Silva
60%win confidence
KO/TKO 60%
Submission 5%
Decision 35%
Despite Barriault's volume advantage (5.98 vs 4.12 SLPM), Silva possesses the more dangerous striking power and has performed better against common opponents. Both fighters have struggled with defensive liabilities, but Barriault's recent form is concerning with consecutive losses including a KO def...
GPT MISS
Bruno Silva
60%win confidence
KO/TKO 30%
Submission 10%
Decision 60%
Bruno Silva has a better win rate and has performed better against common opponents. Also, Silva's takedown defense is higher than Barriault's takedown accuracy, which could limit Barriault's ground game.
FINAL: Daniel Santos by U-DEC
Santos WWL 707d out Lee LWW 454d out last 5
Daniel Santos last fought 707 days ago, long layoff
W
vs Johnny Munoz · U-DEC2023-06-03
W
vs John Castaneda · KO/TKO2022-10-01
L
vs Julio Arce · U-DEC2022-04-09
JeongYeong Lee last fought 454 days ago, long layoff
L
vs Hyder Amil · KO/TKO2024-02-10
W
vs Blake Bilder · U-DEC2024-02-03
W
vs Yizha · S-DEC2023-02-04
Claude HIT
Daniel Santos
65%win confidence
KO/TKO 25%
Submission 10%
Decision 65%
Santos brings significantly higher striking volume (4.26 SLPM vs Lee's 2.84) which should allow him to outwork Lee over three rounds. While Lee has better striking accuracy (52% vs 37%), Santos' output advantage should overcome this deficit. Santos also has a stronger takedown average (1.9 vs 0.93) ...
GPT HIT
Daniel Santos
65%win confidence
KO/TKO 25%
Submission 5%
Decision 70%
Daniel Santos possesses a higher significant strike rate and takedown average. Although JeongYeong Lee has a slightly better striking accuracy and takedown defense, Santos' volume and pressure are likely to give him the edge in a decision.
FINAL: Bekzat Almakhan by KO/TKO Punch
Katona LLWWL 378d out Almakhan L 433d out last 5
Brad Katona last fought 378 days ago
L
vs Jean Matsumoto · U-DEC2024-04-27
L
vs Garrett Armfield · U-DEC2024-01-20
W
vs Jesse Butler · U-DEC2024-01-06
W
vs Cody Gibson · U-DEC2023-08-19
L
vs Hunter Azure · U-DEC2019-09-14
Bekzat Almakhan last fought 433 days ago
L
vs Umar Nurmagomedov · U-DEC2024-03-02
Claude MISS
Brad Katona
80%win confidence
KO/TKO 15%
Submission 20%
Decision 65%
This matchup heavily favors Katona based on the striking metrics alone. Katona's 4.84 SLPM dwarfs Almakhan's mere 0.2 SLPM, indicating a massive output disparity. Almakhan's striking defense (30%) is significantly worse than Katona's (50%), making him vulnerable to Katona's high-volume approach. Kat...
GPT MISS
Brad Katona
75%win confidence
KO/TKO 20%
Submission 5%
Decision 75%
Brad Katona has a significant advantage in striking volume and accuracy, as well as takedown average and defense. Bekzat Almakhan's low striking volume and accuracy, coupled with poor takedown accuracy and defense, make it difficult for him to pose a significant threat to Katona.