September 12, 2026
Noche UFC: Rodriguez vs. Silva
Card complete. Claude 8/13 (62%) · GPT 10/13 (77%)
All results
The Genie's read, written before the card
Noche UFC: Moreno and Fiorot carry a 13-fight card the models mostly split on
Noche UFC on September 12 runs 13 bouts, topped by Brandon Moreno against Joseph Morales at flyweight and Manon Fiorot against Alexa Grasso in a women's flyweight bout with title relevance. The card mixes ranked veterans (Blaydes, Ige, Klose, Salikhov) with a heavy share of debutants and near-debutants whose data is thin or missing. Several bouts have no market line yet, and the two models disagree on five of the thirteen fights, so the betting read is narrow.
For bettors
SelectiveThe record says model picks add nothing beyond the price, and favorites in the 55 to 75% band where both models agree are the only spots that have held up. On this card that leaves Fiorot and Martinez as clean fits, with McMillen and Tarin technically qualifying but built on debut-level data. Five bouts have model disagreement or no line, and Bahamondes, Belgaroui and Silva are priced past 75%.
- Manon Fiorot in Manon Fiorot vs Alexa Grasso: Market 65%, Claude 64%, GPT 73%, Elo 58%. Higher output, better defense, longer frame, and Grasso is 483 days out.
- David Martinez in David Martinez vs Dan Ige: Market 72%, Claude 68%, GPT 59%. Ige debuts at bantamweight at 35 after 30 featherweight fights, 1-4 in his last five.
- Jean Silva's stat block is the wrong fighter (age 48, 7,721-day layoff); GPT's Delgado pick is built on that error. Ignore it.
- Moreno is the models' favorite but the market underdog at 46%; the record says model underdogs lose money.
- McMillen, Rahiki, Tarin, Gantt, King and Rosas all have debut-level or empty UFC data. Any number quoted for them is a tiny sample.
- Bahamondes (81%) and Belgaroui (83%) are agreed favorites but priced past the range that has paid on the record.
Bout by bout
Brandon Moreno vs Joseph MoralesBoth models take Moreno, market has Morales 54%. Moreno lands 3.84 per minute to 2.00; Morales' 26% takedown defense decides it.
Manon Fiorot vs Alexa GrassoBoth models and market (65%) on Fiorot. Her 5.66 output and +2.08 differential against Grasso's 4.11 at range settle it.
Waldo Cortes Acosta vs Curtis BlaydesNo line. Claude leans Cortes Acosta by KO, GPT Blaydes by decision. Blaydes' 5.12 takedowns per 15 versus 73% takedown defense.
Tommy McMillen vs Marwan RahikiBoth models on McMillen, market 57%. Both have zero completed UFC stats on record, so the 13.54 SLpM figure is a tiny sample.
Jean Silva vs Jose DelgadoClaude Silva by KO, market 77%. GPT's Delgado pick rests on stats pulled from the wrong Jean Silva. Watch, do not price it.
David Martinez vs Dan IgeBoth models and market (72%) on Martinez. Ige's first cut to 135 at age 35, off two losses, is the whole story.
Tim Elliott vs Edgar ChairezModels split, market Chairez 66%, Elo a coin flip. Elliott's 3.61 takedowns per 15 versus his neck exposure in scrambles.
Ignacio Bahamondes vs Muslim SalikhovBoth models on Bahamondes, market 81%. Salikhov is 42 and has been stopped early twice recently. Price too short to play.
JJ Aldrich vs Regina TarinBoth models on Tarin but below the market's 67%. Tarin is 21, 8-0, debut-level data. Aldrich's known ceiling versus unknowns.
Yousri Belgaroui vs Djorden SantosBoth models on Belgaroui, market 83%. Three straight finishes and a 79-inch reach; too short to bet.
Drakkar Klose vs Tommy GanttNo line. Both models lean Gantt, 12-0 with NC State wrestling, against Klose's 69% takedown defense at age 38. Watch spot.
Rafa Garcia vs RongzhuNo line. Both models on Garcia by decision. Rongzhu's 5.45 output versus 44% striking defense against a pressure grappler.
Sean King III vs Jessie RosasNo line, no UFC data, models split. King 6-0, Rosas 8-1. Nothing to price here.
For the couch
- Moreno vs Morales is the real disagreement on the card: the market likes Morales after his return, the models like Moreno's near-double strike output and Morales' 26% takedown defense.
- Fiorot vs Grasso is a range fight. Fiorot's 5.66 strikes per minute at 66% defense against Grasso's boxing, with Grasso returning after 483 days.
- Cortes Acosta vs Blaydes is wrestler against a 73% takedown defense; whether Blaydes can get his 5.12 takedowns per 15 to land decides it.
- Ige's drop to 135 at age 35 and Salikhov fighting at 42 off two early knockouts are the two veteran durability tests on the prelims.
- Klose vs Gantt and Rongzhu vs Garcia are pure style clashes: Division I wrestling against 69% takedown defense, and 5.45 strikes per minute against a pressure grappler.
Written by claude-fable-5-1 from the picks, prices, form and Elo on this page and Fight Genie's graded record; it is rewritten when the card or the picks change. Not betting advice.
Both models agree 9 of 13 fights
Yousri Belgaroui over Djorden Santos
Claude 74%
GPT 67%
GPT 67%
Brandon Moreno over Joseph Morales
Both call Decision
Claude 57%
GPT 82%
GPT 82%
Ignacio Bahamondes over Muslim Salikhov
Claude 74%
GPT 65%
GPT 65%
Manon Fiorot over Alexa Grasso
Both call Decision
Claude 64%
GPT 73%
GPT 73%
David Martinez over Dan Ige
Both call Decision
Claude 68%
GPT 59%
GPT 59%
Tommy McMillen over Marwan Rahiki
Claude 60%
GPT 64%
GPT 64%
Tommy Gantt over Drakkar Klose
Both call Decision
Claude 60%
GPT 58%
GPT 58%
Rafa Garcia over Rongzhu
Both call Decision
Claude 59%
GPT 59%
GPT 59%
Regina Tarin over JJ Aldrich
Both call Decision
Claude 58%
GPT 57%
GPT 57%
Double locks: both at 75% or higher 0 fights
Nothing clears the 75% bar from both models. The genie is hedging tonight.
Build your own list 9 match
Yousri Belgaroui over Djorden Santos
Claude 74%
GPT 67%
GPT 67%
Brandon Moreno over Joseph Morales
Both call Decision
Claude 57%
GPT 82%
GPT 82%
Ignacio Bahamondes over Muslim Salikhov
Claude 74%
GPT 65%
GPT 65%
Manon Fiorot over Alexa Grasso
Both call Decision
Claude 64%
GPT 73%
GPT 73%
David Martinez over Dan Ige
Both call Decision
Claude 68%
GPT 59%
GPT 59%
Tommy McMillen over Marwan Rahiki
Claude 60%
GPT 64%
GPT 64%
Tommy Gantt over Drakkar Klose
Both call Decision
Claude 60%
GPT 58%
GPT 58%
Rafa Garcia over Rongzhu
Both call Decision
Claude 59%
GPT 59%
GPT 59%
Regina Tarin over JJ Aldrich
Both call Decision
Claude 58%
GPT 57%
GPT 57%
Win confidence is the model's probability that its pick wins: 55 to 64 is a shrug, 65 to 74 is confident, 75 and up is the model betting its reputation.
KO/TKO, Submission, Decision is how the model splits the ways the fight ends, out of 100.
Odds are the sportsbook moneyline with the bookmaker margin removed, so the two percentages sum to 100. When a model's confidence beats the market's implied number, that gap is the value.
Elo is an opponent adjusted rating built from every UFC fight since 1994. Click any Elo number on the card for the full explanation, including what the star means.
FINAL: Brandon Moreno by S-DEC
Brandon Moreno +106 (45.722256664600124%)
Joseph Morales -136 (54.277743335399876%)
fanduel line
Moreno LWLLL 279d out Morales WWLLW 307d out last 5
Brandon Moreno last fought 279 days ago
L
vs Tatsuro Taira · KO/TKO Punches2025-12-06
W
vs Steve Erceg · U-DEC2025-03-29
L
vs win · 2024-11-02
L
vs Brandon Royval · S-DEC2024-02-24
L
vs Alexandre Pantoja · S-DEC2023-07-08
Joseph Morales last fought 307 days ago
W
vs Matt Schnell · SUB Guillotine Choke2025-11-08
W
vs Alibi Idiris · SUB Triangle Choke2025-08-16
L
vs Eric Shelton · S-DEC2018-11-10
L
vs Deiveson Figueiredo · KO/TKO2018-02-03
W
vs Robert Sanchez · SUB2017-08-05
Claude HIT
Brandon Moreno
57%win confidence
KO/TKO 18%
Submission 22%
Decision 60%
This is a genuine model-vs-market disagreement. The book has Morales at -136 (54%) while opponent-adjusted Elo has Moreno at 55% - and I side with Elo. Morales' two-fight run since his seven-year absence came against Alibi Idiris and a 35-year-old Matt Schnell who has now been finished in the first ...
GPT HIT
Brandon Moreno
82%win confidence
KO/TKO 22%
Submission 18%
Decision 60%
Moreno's supplied significant-strike output is nearly twice Morales's, at 3.84 versus 2.00 landed per minute, with modest advantages in accuracy and defense. Morales's 26% takedown defense suggests Moreno can supplement his striking with opportunistic takedowns, although Morales's high submission-at...
FINAL: Alexa Grasso by U-DEC
Manon Fiorot -225 (65.31483457844183%)
Alexa Grasso +172 (34.68516542155817%)
fanduel line
Fiorot WLWWW 329d out Grasso LLWWW 490d out last 5
Manon Fiorot last fought 329 days ago
W
vs Jasmine Jasudavicius · KO/TKO Punches2025-10-18
L
vs Valentina Shevchenko · U-DEC2025-05-10
W
vs Erin Blanchfield · U-DEC2024-03-30
W
vs Rose Namajunas · U-DEC2023-09-02
W
vs Katlyn Cerminara · U-DEC2022-10-22
Alexa Grasso last fought 490 days ago, long layoff
L
vs Natalia Silva · U-DEC2025-05-10
L
vs Valentina Shevchenko · U-DEC2024-03-30
W
vs Valentina Shevchenko · S-DEC2023-09-16
W
vs Valentina Shevchenko · SUB2023-03-04
W
vs Viviane Araujo · U-DEC2022-10-15
Claude MISS
Manon Fiorot
64%win confidence
KO/TKO 20%
Submission 8%
Decision 72%
Market (65%) and Elo (58%) both favor Fiorot, and the stylistic data supports that order. Fiorot is the higher-output, better-defended striker by a wide margin: 5.66 SLpM at 66% defense against Grasso's 4.11 SLpM at 58% defense, a +2.08 strike differential versus Grasso's +0.40. Fiorot's 5'7" frame ...
GPT MISS
Manon Fiorot
73%win confidence
KO/TKO 9%
Submission 3%
Decision 88%
Fiorot has the stronger statistical profile for a distance-striking fight: she lands 5.66 significant strikes per minute versus Grasso's 4.11, with a +2.08 striking differential versus +0.40. Her lateral movement and long-range attacks should help her accumulate scoring offense while limiting Grasso...
FINAL: Curtis Blaydes by U-DEC
Acosta LWW 126d out Blaydes LWWLL 154d out last 5
Waldo Cortes Acosta last fought 126 days ago
L
vs Alexander Volkov · U-DEC2026-05-09
W
vs Derrick Lewis · KO/TKO Punches2026-01-24
W
vs Shamil Gaziev · KO/TKO Punch2025-11-22
Curtis Blaydes last fought 154 days ago
L
vs Josh Hokit · U-DEC2026-04-11
W
vs Rizvan Kuniev · S-DEC2025-06-21
W
vs Jailton Almeida · KO/TKO2024-03-09
L
vs Tom Aspinall · KO/TKO2024-02-17
L
vs Sergei Pavlovich · KO/TKO2023-04-22
Claude MISS
Waldo Cortes Acosta
56%win confidence
KO/TKO 49%
Submission 4%
Decision 47%
No market line was supplied for this bout, so this is a UFC Stats and Elo read only. Elo favors Blaydes 60/40, but Cortes Acosta's rating is flagged provisional on a small in-system sample and his +42 trend is the sharpest on this card, while Blaydes' number is a career average that is increasingly ...
GPT HIT
Curtis Blaydes
67%win confidence
KO/TKO 42%
Submission 2%
Decision 56%
Blaydes has the stronger wrestling-based route to victory, averaging 5.12 takedowns per 15 minutes versus Cortes Acosta's 0.40. Repeated entries and mat returns could disrupt Cortes Acosta's higher striking output and create scoring opportunities through ground strikes. However, Cortes Acosta's 73% ...
FINAL: Tommy McMillen by U-DEC
Tommy McMillen -156 (57.49767565413734%)
Marwan Rahiki +122 (42.50232434586266%)
fanduel line
Claude HIT
Tommy McMillen
60%win confidence
KO/TKO 50%
Submission 5%
Decision 45%
Data caveat first: the dataCompleteness block flags both men as having zero completed UFC fights on record, while the recent-form log shows each with two UFC finishes in 2026. The per-minute numbers (McMillen 13.54 SLPM, Rahiki 7.75 SLPM) are therefore drawn from a tiny, possibly non-UFC sample and ...
GPT HIT
Tommy McMillen
64%win confidence
KO/TKO 44%
Submission 3%
Decision 53%
McMillen's supplied statistics favor him in a striking-led matchup: he lands 13.54 significant strikes per minute versus Rahiki's 7.75 while absorbing fewer, producing a substantially stronger striking differential. His listed reach advantage could help him establish distance and accumulate scoring ...
FINAL: Jean Silva by SUB Rear Naked Choke
Jean Silva -440 (76.96245733788398%)
Jose Delgado +310 (23.037542662116046%)
fanduel line
Silva WLWWW 230d out Delgado LWW 322d out last 5
Jean Silva last fought 230 days ago
W
vs Arnold Allen · U-DEC2026-01-24
L
vs Diego Lopes · KO/TKO Punches2025-09-13
W
vs Bryce Mitchell · SUB Guillotine Choke2025-04-12
W
vs Melsik Baghdasaryan · KO/TKO Punch2025-02-22
W
vs Drew Dober · KO/TKO2024-02-03
Jose Delgado last fought 322 days ago
L
vs Nathaniel Wood · U-DEC2025-10-25
W
vs Hyder Amil · KO/TKO Knee2025-06-28
W
vs Connor Matthews · KO/TKO Punches2025-02-15
Claude HIT
Jean Silva
68%win confidence
KO/TKO 45%
Submission 15%
Decision 40%
Critical data note: the enrichment and basics blocks for Jean Silva have pulled the wrong fighter - the 1977-born Brazilian who lost to Takanori Gomi at PRIDE Bushido 8 in 2005 (hence the 7,721-day layoff, 0.73 SLPM and 22% accuracy). Those numbers are garbage for this bout and are ignored. The hist...
GPT MISS
Jose Delgado
58%win confidence
KO/TKO 30%
Submission 10%
Decision 60%
Delgado is a tentative pick based strictly on the supplied statistics: his 6.23 significant strikes landed per minute and +2.02 striking differential substantially exceed Silva's 0.73 and -2.20. His reported takedown activity and 75% accuracy suggest an additional route to winning rounds if entries ...
FINAL: David Martinez by U-DEC
David Martinez -330 (72.29381443298969%)
Dan Ige +240 (27.706185567010305%)
fanduel line
Martinez WW 364d out Ige LWWLL 202d out last 5
David Martinez last fought 364 days ago
W
vs Rob Font · U-DEC2025-09-13
W
vs Saimon Oliveira · KO/TKO Knee2025-03-29
Dan Ige last fought 202 days ago
L
vs Melquizael Costa · KO/TKO Spinning Back Kick2026-02-21
W
vs Sean Woodson · KO/TKO Punches2025-04-12
W
vs Andre Fili · KO/TKO2024-02-10
L
vs Diego Lopes · U-DEC2024-01-27
L
vs Bryce Mitchell · U-DEC2023-09-23
Claude HIT
David Martinez
68%win confidence
KO/TKO 27%
Submission 5%
Decision 68%
This is Ige's first attempt at 135 lbs at age 35 after 30 pro fights at featherweight, and that cut is the single most important variable. His last two outings were a decision loss to Pitbull and a first-round spinning-back-kick KO loss to Melquizael Costa, so he arrives 1-4 in his last five and dro...
GPT HIT
David Martinez
59%win confidence
KO/TKO 23%
Submission 2%
Decision 75%
Conditional on the supplied matchup and a three-round bout, Martinez has the stronger striking profile: 4.82 significant strikes landed per minute versus 3.60, a +1.92 striking differential versus +0.04, and 69% striking defense versus 56%. Those advantages favor Martinez winning exchanges through o...
FINAL: Tim Elliott by U-DEC
Tim Elliott +180 (33.7361530715005%)
Edgar Chairez -235 (66.26384692849949%)
fanduel line
Elliott WWLWW 392d out Chairez WLWWL 532d out last 5
Tim Elliott last fought 392 days ago
W
vs Kai Asakura · SUB Guillotine Choke2025-08-16
W
vs Sumudaerji · SUB2023-12-09
L
vs Muhammad Mokaev · SUB2023-10-21
W
vs Victor Altamirano · U-DEC2023-06-03
W
vs Tagir Ulanbekov · U-DEC2022-03-05
Edgar Chairez last fought 532 days ago, long layoff
W
vs CJ Vergara · SUB Rear Naked Choke2025-03-29
L
vs Joshua Van · U-DEC2024-03-30
W
vs Daniel Lacerda · SUB2024-02-24
W
vs Daniel Lacerda · Overturned2023-09-16
L
vs Tatsuro Taira · U-DEC2023-07-08
Claude MISS
Edgar Chairez
58%win confidence
KO/TKO 18%
Submission 36%
Decision 46%
The market's 66% on Chairez feels a touch high given the Elo block calls this a coin flip (51/49), but I still land on the younger fighter for a stylistic reason rather than a form reason. Elliott's game is 3.61 takedowns per 15 minutes at 45% accuracy with a scramble-heavy, neck-exposing style that...
GPT HIT
Tim Elliott
64%win confidence
KO/TKO 10%
Submission 25%
Decision 65%
Elliott has the stronger statistical foundation for a wrestling-led decision: 3.61 takedowns per 15 minutes against Chairez's 47% takedown defense, plus a +0.51 significant-strike differential versus Chairez's -0.95. Repeated entries and effective offense from top position could reduce Chairez's opp...
FINAL: Ignacio Bahamondes by U-DEC
Ignacio Bahamondes -620 (81.15183246073299%)
Muslim Salikhov +400 (18.848167539267017%)
fanduel line
Bahamondes LWWWL 448d out Salikhov LLWLL 307d out last 5
Ignacio Bahamondes last fought 448 days ago
L
vs Rafael Fiziev · U-DEC2025-06-21
W
vs Jalin Turner · SUB Triangle Choke2025-03-08
W
vs Christos Giagos · KO/TKO2024-04-06
W
vs Manuel Torres · KO/TKO2024-03-30
L
vs Ludovit Klein · U-DEC2023-08-05
Muslim Salikhov last fought 307 days ago
L
vs Uros Medic · KO/TKO Punch2025-11-08
L
vs Song Kenan · 2024-11-23
W
vs Santiago Ponzinibbio · S-DEC2024-02-03
L
vs Randy Brown · KO/TKO2024-02-03
L
vs Nicolas Dalby · U-DEC2023-06-17
Claude HIT
Ignacio Bahamondes
74%win confidence
KO/TKO 58%
Submission 12%
Decision 30%
Elo has this near even (53/47) while the market is at -620, and I side with the market here because the Elo is carrying Salikhov's peak (1587) more than his present state. Salikhov is 42 years old, has been knocked out in the first round by Uros Medic and Randy Brown in two of his last four, and arr...
GPT HIT
Ignacio Bahamondes
65%win confidence
KO/TKO 37%
Submission 5%
Decision 58%
Bahamondes has the stronger statistical case for winning rounds: 5.99 significant strikes landed per minute versus 3.37, with a +1.92 striking differential compared with Salikhov's +0.41. Sustained combinations and distance management could let him outwork Salikhov, although career averages are not ...
FINAL: Regina Tarin by U-DEC
JJ Aldrich +186 (32.99225399254088%)
Regina Tarin -245 (67.00774600745912%)
fanduel line
Aldrich WWLWW 147d out Tarin last 5
JJ Aldrich last fought 147 days ago
W
vs Jamey-Lyn Horth · U-DEC2026-04-18
W
vs Andrea Lee · U-DEC2025-03-01
L
vs Veronica Hardy · U-DEC2023-12-16
W
vs Montana De La Rosa · U-DEC2023-10-07
W
vs Liang Na · KO/TKO2023-08-26
Regina Tarin no UFC fights on record
Claude HIT
Regina Tarin
58%win confidence
KO/TKO 12%
Submission 8%
Decision 80%
Tarin's UFCStats data is flagged as a debut-level sample (her Kareckaite win is in the fight log but not the stat record), so this is priced from the market prior (67% Tarin), physical profile and Aldrich's known ceiling rather than hard numbers. Tarin is 21, unbeaten at 8-0, two inches taller at 5'...
GPT HIT
Regina Tarin
57%win confidence
KO/TKO 20%
Submission 5%
Decision 75%
Tarin gets a narrow edge from her substantially higher significant-strike output: 7.60 landed per minute versus Aldrich's 3.92, with comparable accuracy. Her +0.60 striking differential also contrasts with Aldrich's -0.42, suggesting a potential advantage in sustained exchanges. However, Tarin absor...
FINAL: Yousri Belgaroui by KO/TKO Punch
Yousri Belgaroui -770 (83.45693097547063%)
Djorden Santos +470 (16.543069024529377%)
fanduel line
Belgaroui W 329d out Santos LWL 126d out last 5
Yousri Belgaroui last fought 329 days ago
W
vs Azamat Bekoev · KO/TKO Punches2025-10-18
Djorden Santos last fought 126 days ago
L
vs Baisangur Susurkaev · SUB Rear Naked Choke2026-05-09
W
vs Danny Barlow · U-DEC2025-10-18
L
vs Ozzy Diaz · U-DEC2025-03-08
Claude HIT
Yousri Belgaroui
74%win confidence
KO/TKO 52%
Submission 6%
Decision 42%
Market has Belgaroui at 83% while provisional Elo says only 57%; the truth sits in between but much closer to the market. Elo is under-crediting three consecutive finishes (Iwasaki on DWCS, Bekoev, and a knee KO of Abdul-Malik, an undefeated prospect) because he only has one rated UFC bout. Belgarou...
GPT HIT
Yousri Belgaroui
67%win confidence
KO/TKO 43%
Submission 3%
Decision 54%
Belgaroui has the stronger supplied striking profile: 6.10 significant strikes landed per minute at 64% accuracy versus Santos's 5.67 at 55%. His lower absorption rate and superior striking defense suggest an advantage in sustained stand-up exchanges. Santos's clearest adjustment is to mix takedowns...
FINAL: Tommy Gantt by SUB Triangle Choke
Klose WLWWW 392d out Gantt last 5
Drakkar Klose last fought 392 days ago
W
vs Edson Barboza · U-DEC2025-08-16
L
vs Joel Alvarez · KO/TKO Knee2024-12-14
W
vs Joaquim Silva · U-DEC2023-12-09
W
vs Joe Solecki · KO/TKO2023-12-02
W
vs Rafa Garcia · U-DEC2022-07-30
Tommy Gantt no UFC fights on record
Claude HIT
Tommy Gantt
60%win confidence
KO/TKO 24%
Submission 20%
Decision 56%
No market line provided, and Gantt's UFCStats record is flagged as debut-level despite his May KO of Artur Minev appearing in the fight log, so this rests on physical profile, Klose's known numbers and Gantt's pre-UFC pedigree. Gantt is 12-0 with a Division I wrestling base (NC State) and has finish...
GPT HIT
Tommy Gantt
58%win confidence
KO/TKO 12%
Submission 16%
Decision 72%
Gantt gets a narrow lean because his reported 11.29 takedowns per 15 minutes suggest sustained wrestling pressure against Klose's 69% takedown defense. Repeated entries could create opportunities for top-position offense, although control alone would not guarantee winning rounds. Klose has the stron...
FINAL: Rongzhu by U-DEC
Garcia WWWLW 140d out Rongzhu WWLLW 385d out last 5
Rafa Garcia last fought 140 days ago
W
vs Alexander Hernandez · U-DEC2026-04-25
W
vs Jared Gordon · KO/TKO Elbows2025-09-13
W
vs Vinc Pichel · U-DEC2025-03-29
L
vs Grant Dawson · KO/TKO2024-04-27
W
vs Clay Guida · U-DEC2023-04-15
Rongzhu last fought 385 days ago
W
vs Austin Hubbard · U-DEC2025-08-23
W
vs Kody Steele · U-DEC2025-02-08
L
vs Chris Padilla · KO/TKO2024-03-23
L
vs Ignacio Bahamondes · SUB2022-02-26
W
vs Brandon Jenkins · KO/TKO2021-09-18
Claude MISS
Rafa Garcia
59%win confidence
KO/TKO 27%
Submission 18%
Decision 55%
This is a pressure-grappler against a high-volume, low-defense striker, and the numbers point to Garcia grinding out rounds rather than Rongzhu winning a shootout. Rongzhu throws 5.45 significant strikes per minute at 51% accuracy, which is genuinely dangerous output, but he absorbs 5.8 per minute w...
GPT MISS
Rafa Garcia
59%win confidence
KO/TKO 20%
Submission 8%
Decision 72%
Garcia gets a narrow edge through stronger striking defense and a higher takedown rate, offering a route to winning rounds by combining clinch work with effective offense after takedowns. His 61% striking defense compares favorably with Rongzhu's 44%, while Rongzhu absorbs 5.80 significant strikes p...
FINAL: Sean King III by KO/TKO Slam
Claude MISS
Jessie Rosas
55%win confidence
KO/TKO 32%
Submission 22%
Decision 46%
Both men are UFC debutants with zero UFCStats data, so every striking, grappling and Elo field here is empty rather than informative, and this pick is made under explicit uncertainty. What is known: King arrives at 6-0, Rosas at 8-1. The lean to Rosas is narrow and rests on volume of professional ex...
GPT HIT
Sean King III
55%win confidence
KO/TKO 30%
Submission 20%
Decision 50%
King is a forced-selection placeholder, not an evidence-backed favorite: the supplied data support no meaningful separation between these fighters. All substantive performance metrics are missing, and the listed 0% figures should not be interpreted as measured deficiencies without attempt counts. Th...