- Suarez lands 6.2 takedowns per 15 min at 61% and has never had a takedown completed on her (100% defense), vs Jandiroba's 34% takedown accuracy
- Striking gap: Suarez lands 4.27 per min at 63% accuracy and absorbs 1.38, vs Jandiroba's 2.12 at 38%
- Common opponents: Suarez 3-0 (Godinez by sub, Lemos, Esparza), Jandiroba 2-1 with a decision loss to Esparza
- Jandiroba's 1.7 submission attempts per 15 min and guard skills punish any loose guillotine attempt, and she has not been finished in the UFC, so a decision is most likely
- Market (60%) and Elo (57%) agree, so a small move above the market is justified by the grappling matchup
Write-up
The market (Suarez 60% de-vigged) and Elo (57%) agree, and the matchup evidence supports a small move toward Suarez. Her wrestling volume is elite: 6.2 takedowns per 15 minutes at 61% accuracy, and no opponent has completed a takedown on her. Jandiroba averages 2.29 takedowns at only 34% accuracy and is unlikely to dictate where the fight happens. On the feet Suarez is also clearly better: 4.27 strikes landed per minute at 63% accuracy and 1.38 absorbed, vs Jandiroba's 2.12 landed at 38% and 2.73 absorbed. The common opponents favor Suarez. She is 3-0 against Godinez, Lemos and Esparza. Jandiroba is 2-1 against them, losing to Esparza. Jandiroba still has a real path. She is a high-level BJJ player who averages 1.7 submission attempts per 15 minutes and armbarred Lemos. Suarez's offense often involves front headlocks and guillotines, which can give up scrambles. Jandiroba has also never been finished in her UFC losses (decisions to Dern and Esparza). That durability and sub defense lower Suarez's finishing chances, even though she submitted Godinez, Andrade and De La Rosa. The likely fight is Suarez winning takedowns and controlling from top while staying out of leg-lock and armbar setups, which points to a decision. The layoffs are about equal (204 vs 211 days), and there is no fight-week news.
- Market and opponent-adjusted Elo both moderately favor Suarez.
- Suarez's wrestling efficiency supports top-position scoring, but Jandiroba presents submission and takedown-defense resistance.
- Comparable recent records and layoffs limit confidence; conflicting historical fields warrant caution.
Write-up
Suarez's supplied 60% de-vigged market probability is supported by the opponent-adjusted Elo estimate of 57%. Her higher takedown rate and accuracy favor securing top position, while her positive striking differential supports a scoring advantage without establishing superior standalone striking. Jandiroba's 73% takedown defense and higher submission-attempt average make prolonged grappling competitive and favor a decision over a confident finish prediction. Both are 2-1 across their latest three enriched results; Suarez's stronger common-opponent history offers additional support. Reported layoffs of 204 and 211 days provide no meaningful separation, and Suarez's older extended absences have been followed by multiple appearances. Jandiroba's structured history contains omissions and duplicates, so the enriched log takes precedence. No supplied news warrants moving off the market. Round assumes three scheduled rounds; method probabilities are conditional on Suarez winning.