- Market favors Degli at 68% de-vigged; the debutant cap of 65 applies, so 64
- Raposo's 50% takedown defense and earlier RNC loss to Jake Hadley expose him to Degli's submission game (RNC finish on DWCS)
- Raposo is low-output (2.29 SLpM, 33% accuracy, -1.03 differential) and wins close rounds through takedowns (1.94 per 15 minutes, 60%); four of his last five fights went to decision, three of them split
- Degli is on a short 40-day turnaround after DWCS and has no UFC data, so how good he is at this level is very uncertain
- Raposo's durability and decision-heavy history make Degli by decision more likely than a stoppage
Write-up
The market has Degli at 68% de-vigged. Degli makes his UFC debut off a DWCS rear-naked choke win over Paris Moran 40 days ago, so the debutant cap of 65 applies. His 100% finish rate comes from a single logged fight. Raposo has two straight wins (S-DEC over Allan Nascimento, U-DEC over Azat Maksum), but both were close, and before that he lost three in a row (two split decisions and an RNC loss to Jake Hadley on DWCS). His numbers point to a low-output fighter who stays close: 2.29 SLpM, 33% accuracy, a -1.03 strike differential and no submission attempts. His 1.94 takedowns per 15 minutes at 60% are his main way to win rounds. The problem is his 50% takedown defense against a submission grappler, plus the Hadley RNC loss as evidence he can be finished in scrambles. Degli's 15-3 regional record and finishing profile suggest he has the edge in grappling exchanges. Raposo is durable, though: four of his last five fights went to decision, so a clear decision is more likely than a stoppage. I see no specific reason to move far from the market and trim to 64 because of the debut cap and Raposo's experience in three-round UFC fights.
- Market favors Degli at 68%; debut uncertainty warrants reduced confidence
- Degli's recent submission win provides limited evidence of a grappling threat
- Raposo has consecutive decision wins and more UFC experience
- Recent decision-heavy results favor a three-round outcome
- Neither layoff exceeds the approximately 450-day risk threshold
Write-up
The supplied 68% market probability favors Degli; debut uncertainty lowers my estimate to 64%. His submission win over Paris Moran supports a grappling threat, but his statistical averages are not established UFC evidence. Raposo's two recent wins outweigh the stale form summary, and his UFC experience provides a stronger competitive benchmark. His four consecutive decisions suggest a finish is less certain than Degli's single recorded submission victory implies. Neither fighter has a concerning extended layoff. Method probabilities are conditional on Degli winning.