- Market (59%) and Elo (60%) agree on Silva; the Elo gap is 67 with both ratings non-provisional
- Silva's wrestling (72% TD accuracy, 3.59 TD/15, 2.2 sub attempts/15) against Fernandes's 59% TDD and 0.67 TD/15 is the main edge
- Silva's recent losses came against stronger opposition (Barber, Jasudavicius), all by decision, so her durability holds up
- Fernandes's volume (3.73 SLpM) is her route to winning rounds, but her -1.83 striking differential and the KO loss to O'Neill show she can be hurt
Write-up
Both priors agree. The market has Silva at 59% de-vigged and Elo has her at 60% (1551 vs 1483, a 67-point gap, neither rating provisional). I see no matchup reason to move off that. Silva's skid looks worse than it is: her two straight losses were decisions to Maycee Barber and Jasmine Jasudavicius, both higher-ranked fighters than Fernandes, and she wasn't finished in either. The style matchup favors her. Silva lands takedowns well (72% accuracy, 3.59 per 15) and threatens submissions (2.2 attempts per 15). Fernandes has a 59% TDD, 0.67 TD/15 and only 22% takedown accuracy, so Silva should be able to set the range and the position. Fernandes is a southpaw striker with more volume (3.73 SLpM vs Silva's 2.67 at 35% accuracy), but she absorbs 5.56 sig strikes per minute, a -1.83 differential, and was stopped by Casey O'Neill in March 2026. If she keeps it standing at range she can win rounds on volume, and that is the path to an upset. Common opponent: both lost decisions to Jasudavicius, which tells us little. Silva's listed 0% TDD is a data artifact (no recorded attempts against her) and is not counted here. Fernandes's dataset is also messy: the Wang Cong result shows as a loss in one table and an RNC win in another. Silva's last five UFC fights all went to decision, while Fernandes absorbs a lot and has been finished, so a decision is most likely, with a late submission as the main finishing route. Confidence sits at 60, matching both priors.
- Market and opponent-adjusted Elo agree on a modest Silva advantage
- Silva's takedown production offers her clearest winning route
- Five consecutive Silva decisions outweigh submission averages for method selection
- Fernandes' striking output presents a threat, but her absorption is higher
- Conflicting records limit certainty; reported layoffs are below 450 days
Write-up
Silva's 59% market probability aligns with the opponent-adjusted Elo estimate of 60%, supporting a modest favorite despite her two consecutive losses. Her 3.59 takedown average and 72% accuracy provide a plausible advantage against Fernandes' 59% takedown defense. Fernandes offers greater striking output and accuracy, but absorbs substantially more strikes. Silva's five consecutive decisions favor a decision prediction over her career submission activity. Conflicting Fernandes fight logs and record totals limit confidence in recent-form comparisons. Neither reported layoff approaches the 450-day risk threshold, and no material fight-week news supports moving away from the market. Method probabilities are conditional on Silva winning.