Marlon Vera vs Charles Jourdain

Each row splits one source's view of the fight. The dashed line is even odds. Where the models sit further from the market, they are claiming an edge.

Career UFC averages. Bars are scaled within each row, so compare left against right, not row against row. The stronger side is highlighted, and for strikes absorbed the lower number is the better one.

Each model's split across the ways this fight can finish, out of 100.

This is the clearest model-vs-market tension on the card. Elo still favors Vera 57-43 because his rating was built against O'Malley, Sandhagen, Figueiredo and Munhoz, but the -37 recent trend tells the real story: four straight decision losses, the last two to Aiemann Zahabi and David Martinez, fighters a peak Vera would have been favored over. Vera's career numbers already show a negative striking differential (4.18 landed vs 5.34 absorbed) and that gap has widened as his notoriously slow starts have turned into slow full fights; he has zero finishes in his last five. Jourdain, by contrast, is 3-0 since dropping to bantamweight with two first-round guillotines and a unanimous decision over Kyler Phillips, a legitimately ranked opponent. He outlands his opponents (5.36 SLPM vs 4.11 absorbed) with a 56% defense rate that beats Vera's 50%. The common opponent (Davey Grant) favors Jourdain on method: he choked Grant out in one round where Vera needed a decision. Jourdain's 46% takedown defense is the exploitable hole, but Vera attempts only 0.47 takedowns per fight and has never been a wrestler-first fighter, so the hole is unlikely to be tested. Vera's durability (never stopped in 25 UFC bouts) and his 0.8 sub average make him a live dog if Jourdain gets reckless on the feet or dives on a guillotine that isn't there, which is why this is not above 62. I side with the market's Jourdain lean over the Elo prior, but at 62 rather than 68: the Elo still captures something about Vera's floor and late-round surges that the market may be over-discounting. Expect Jourdain to bank rounds one and two on volume and Vera to rally too late.

Jourdain's higher striking output, better defense and positive strike differential favor him in a predominantly standing fight. Vera has a grappling opportunity against Jourdain's 46% takedown defense, but his low takedown rate limits that advantage. Missing recent form and reliable finishing data temper confidence; the decision pick assumes three rounds.