Arman Tsarukyan vs Mauricio Ruffy

Each row splits one source's view of the fight. The dashed line is even odds. Where the models sit further from the market, they are claiming an edge.

Career UFC averages. Bars are scaled within each row, so compare left against right, not row against row. The stronger side is highlighted, and for strikes absorbed the lower number is the better one.

Each model's split across the ways this fight can finish, out of 100.

Ruffy is the most dangerous pure striker Tsarukyan has faced since Oliveira, and his knockouts of Fiziev and Chandler in 2026 are legitimate top-15 wins, not padding. But his only UFC loss is the blueprint for this fight: Benoit Saint Denis took him down, took his back and choked him in round two. Tsarukyan is a far better wrestler than Saint Denis, averaging 3.26 takedowns per 15 minutes and absorbing only 1.80 significant strikes per minute - the best defensive number on the card. His 37% takedown accuracy looks low but reflects relentless chain wrestling against elite opposition; Ruffy's 86% takedown defense is built on a five-fight sample where most opponents never tried. The 4-inch height and 3-inch reach edge give Ruffy a real window at range, especially in round one when Tsarukyan may carry rust from a 288-day layoff, and the market's 75% feels a touch rich given that Ruffy's power ends fights with one shot. Elo at 61% Tsarukyan is too low because Ruffy's rating is barely past provisional. I land near 70%: Tsarukyan closes distance behind level changes, drains Ruffy against the fence, and finds a choke or arm triangle once Ruffy gives up his back to stand - the same way he finished Hooker.

Tsarukyan's stronger striking differential (+2.05 versus +0.36) and takedown output offer more routes to winning rounds. Ruffy's 86% takedown defense and superior striking accuracy make him competitive, but his higher absorption favors Tsarukyan over time. Round assumes a three-round bout; method probabilities are conditional on Tsarukyan winning.