This bout was put together about two weeks out. Petroski's original Oct. 31 opponent, Azamat Bekoev, withdrew after a reported anaphylactic reaction, and Kondratavicius had lost his own opponent, Wes Schultz. The new pairing was then moved from the Oct. 31 Moicano vs. Nolan card to the Nov. 7 card.
- Andre Petroski Petroski's original opponent, Azamat Bekoev, withdrew from their Oct. 31 (UFC Vegas 123) bout. Bekoev said in a statement that he had an anaphylactic reaction, passed out inside a CVS after getting medication, and an ambulance was called. source
- Both AgentMMA reported that Wes Schultz was removed from his scheduled fight with Kondratavicius. With both men left without opponents, matchmakers paired Petroski and Kondratavicius for UFC Vegas 124 on Nov. 7. source
- Both UFCalendar reported that Bekoev came off the Oct. 31 card on Oct. 23 and Kondratavicius replaced him. The bout was then moved from UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. Nolan to the Nov. 7 Bonfim vs. Brady card, and the UFC gave no reason for the move. source
- Petroski has lost three straight, two by KO/TKO from punches (Rowston R1, Brundage), plus a 2024 TKO loss to Malkoun: his durability is declining
- Petroski's striking is net negative (2.75 SLpM vs 2.99 SApM, 49% accuracy, 51% defense), so he needs takedowns to win rounds
- Kondratavicius was already in camp for Nov 7 (vs Wes Schultz), so the late opponent swap affects game-planning more than conditioning
- Market says 73% and his recent form backs it, but he has only one UFC fight and carries a debut flag in the data, so confidence is held to 65
Write-up
The de-vigged market has Kondratavicius at 73%, and Petroski's recent record backs that up. Petroski has lost three straight. Two of those losses were stoppages from punches (Cam Rowston in R1, Sep 2025; Cody Brundage, May 2026), and a 2024 TKO loss to Jacob Malkoun points the same way: his durability has dropped as the opposition got better. His career profile (3.13 TD/15, 86% TDD, 1.2 sub attempts per 15) is a control grappler's. But he lands only 2.75 sig strikes per minute and absorbs 2.99, so when he can't set up his wrestling he loses the striking exchanges. The data has a gap here. The pipeline flags Kondratavicius as a UFC debutant with null stats, yet the form log shows a UFC decision win over Antonio Trocoli in March 2026 after a DWCS KO of Djani Barbir. In practice he has one UFC fight and a 9-1 pro record, so there are no meaningful per-minute numbers to compare. The 'short notice replacement' flag matters less than it looks. He was already in camp for a Nov 7 bout with Wes Schultz, and only the opponent changed, from a striker to a wrestler, about two weeks out. That change is the one real risk: he has had little time to prepare for Petroski's chain wrestling. I agree with the market's direction, but the debut flag caps me at 65 and his tiny UFC sample also argues for caution. This is about 8 points under the market, not a fade. The finish odds are split. Petroski's chin is now a real liability, but the Trocoli fight went the distance, and Petroski will try to slow things down with clinch and takedown attempts. Decision is the single most likely result, with a KO close behind.
- Market favors Kondratavicius at 73%; debut uncertainty caps confidence at 65%
- Petroski's latest enriched results show consecutive knockout losses
- Petroski's wrestling and UFC experience remain meaningful threats
- Conflicting Kondratavicius records prevent reliable statistical comparison
- Late opponent change, but an existing November 7 booking suggests preparation was underway
Write-up
Start from the supplied 73% market probability for Kondratavicius, but cap confidence at 65% because his debut flag contradicts the reported UFC history and makes his statistical averages unreliable. Petroski's enriched log shows three consecutive losses, including two straight knockout defeats, supporting a stoppage lean. His established UFC experience and wrestling provide a credible upset route; Kondratavicius's listed wins do not establish comparable opposition quality. The late opponent change adds uncertainty, although Kondratavicius was already scheduled to fight November 7. Neither supplied layoff reaches the 450-day risk threshold. Method percentages are conditional on a Kondratavicius victory.