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Xiao Long vs SuYoung You

Bantamweight · Prelims · UFC Fight Night: Walker vs. Zhang

FINAL: SuYoung You by U-DEC
Xiao Long
Xiao Long
Age 27 · Elo 1444
WL
272 days since last fight
vs
SuYoung You
SuYoung You
Age 29 · Elo 1520*
WL
161 days since last fight

Who wins, by source

Xiao LongSuYoung You
Claude Claude: Xiao Long 64% Claude: SuYoung You 36% 64% 36% GPT GPT: Xiao Long 26% GPT: SuYoung You 74% 26% 74% Elo Elo: Xiao Long 39% Elo: SuYoung You 61% 39% 61%

Each row splits one source's view of the fight. The dashed line is even odds. Where the models sit further from the market, they are claiming an edge.

Tale of the tape

Xiao LongSuYoung You
Strikes landed / min Xiao Long Strikes landed / min: 5.06 5.06 SuYoung You Strikes landed / min: 1.77 1.77 Strikes absorbed / min Xiao Long Strikes absorbed / min: 3.85 3.85 SuYoung You Strikes absorbed / min: 1.80 1.80 Striking accuracy Xiao Long Striking accuracy: 47% 47% SuYoung You Striking accuracy: 38% 38% Striking defense Xiao Long Striking defense: 50% 50% SuYoung You Striking defense: 64% 64% Takedowns / 15 min Xiao Long Takedowns / 15 min: 0.74 0.74 SuYoung You Takedowns / 15 min: 6.00 6.00 Takedown defense Xiao Long Takedown defense: 82% 82% SuYoung You Takedown defense: 75% 75% Sub attempts / 15 min Xiao Long Sub attempts / 15 min: no data - SuYoung You Sub attempts / 15 min: 0.5 0.5

Career UFC averages. Bars are scaled within each row, so compare left against right, not row against row. The stronger side is highlighted, and for strikes absorbed the lower number is the better one.

How it ends

KO/TKOSubmissionDecision
Claude Claude: KO/TKO 25% 25% Claude: Submission 15% 15% Claude: Decision 60% 60%GPT GPT: KO/TKO 7% GPT: Submission 19% 19% GPT: Decision 74% 74%

Each model's split across the ways this fight can finish, out of 100.

The analysis

Claude
Xiao Long by Decision, 63.605000000000004% confidence

Simplified prediction due to API limitations. Basic statistical comparison used.

GPT
SuYoung You by Decision, 74% confidence

SuYoung You's elite grappling volume (6 takedowns per fight, 63% accuracy) should dictate the pace and location of the fight. While Xiao Long has a clear striking advantage in both volume and accuracy, his takedown defense (78%) will be tested at a much higher frequency than he's faced before. You's superior striking defense (64%) and ability to stifle offense make it likely he can neutralize Long's output and control rounds on the mat.