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Sergei Pavlovich vs Waldo Cortes-Acosta

Heavyweight · Main card · UFC Fight Night: Walker vs. Zhang

Sergei Pavlovich
Sergei Pavlovich
Age 33 · Elo 1611
WLLWW
202 days since last fight
vs
Waldo Cortes-Acosta
Waldo Cortes-Acosta
Age 33 · Elo 1564
WWWLW
587 days since last fight

Who wins, by source

Sergei PavlovichWaldo Cortes-Acosta
GPT GPT: Sergei Pavlovich 72% GPT: Waldo Cortes-Acosta 28% 72% 28% Elo Elo: Sergei Pavlovich 57% Elo: Waldo Cortes-Acosta 43% 57% 43%

Each row splits one source's view of the fight. The dashed line is even odds. Where the models sit further from the market, they are claiming an edge.

Tale of the tape

Sergei PavlovichWaldo Cortes-Acosta
Strikes landed / min Sergei Pavlovich Strikes landed / min: 5.86 5.86 Waldo Cortes-Acosta Strikes landed / min: 5.64 5.64 Strikes absorbed / min Sergei Pavlovich Strikes absorbed / min: 5.03 5.03 Waldo Cortes-Acosta Strikes absorbed / min: 3.60 3.60 Striking accuracy Sergei Pavlovich Striking accuracy: 44% 44% Waldo Cortes-Acosta Striking accuracy: 48% 48% Striking defense Sergei Pavlovich Striking defense: 51% 51% Waldo Cortes-Acosta Striking defense: 52% 52% Takedowns / 15 min Sergei Pavlovich Takedowns / 15 min: 0.00 0.00 Waldo Cortes-Acosta Takedowns / 15 min: 0.55 0.55 Takedown defense Sergei Pavlovich Takedown defense: 75% 75% Waldo Cortes-Acosta Takedown defense: 60% 60% Sub attempts / 15 min Sergei Pavlovich Sub attempts / 15 min: 0.0 0.0 Waldo Cortes-Acosta Sub attempts / 15 min: 0.2 0.2

Career UFC averages. Bars are scaled within each row, so compare left against right, not row against row. The stronger side is highlighted, and for strikes absorbed the lower number is the better one.

How it ends

KO/TKOSubmissionDecision
GPT GPT: KO/TKO 65% 65% GPT: Submission 3% GPT: Decision 32% 32%

Each model's split across the ways this fight can finish, out of 100.

The analysis

GPT
Sergei Pavlovich by KO/TKO, 72% confidence

Pavlovich is an elite power puncher with a proven track record of early knockouts against top-tier heavyweights. While Cortes-Acosta displays solid striking volume, high accuracy, and a positive strike differential, he has not faced anyone with Pavlovich's finishing ability. Pavlovich's reach advantage (+6 inches) and aggressive style are likely to overcome Cortes-Acosta's more methodical approach and modest grappling threat.