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UFC Fight Night: Walker vs. ZhangHeavyweightMain card
Sergei Pavlovich
Sergei
Pavlovich
7-3UFC
33 yrsElo 1611
VS
Waldo Cortes-Acosta
Waldo
Cortes-Acosta
5-1UFC
33 yrsElo 1564
Who wins
GPT
72%
Pavlovich
Elo
57%
Pavlovich
1611 vs 1564
Tale of the tapeUFC averages
6'3" Height 6'4"
84" Reach 78"
Southpaw Stance Orthodox
5.86 Landed / min 5.64
5.03 Absorbed / minlower better 3.60
44% Strike accuracy 48%
51% Strike defense 52%
0.00 Takedowns / 15 0.55
0% TD accuracy 60%
75% TD defense 60%
0.0 Subs / 15 0.2
How it ends
GPT: KO/TKO 65%GPT: Submission 3%GPT: Decision 32%
65%KO/TKO
GPT calls KO/TKO
KO/TKO 65%Submission 3%Decision 32%
Formnewest first
Sergei Pavlovich202 days out
W
Jairzinho Rozenstruik
U-DEC · 2025-02-01
L
Alexander Volkov
U-DEC · 2024-01-20
L
Tom Aspinall
KO/TKO · 2023-11-11
W
Curtis Blaydes
KO/TKO · 2023-04-22
W
Tai Tuivasa
KO/TKO · 2022-12-03
Waldo Cortes-Acosta587 days out
W
Andrei Arlovski
U-DEC · 2024-01-13
W
Robelis Despaigne
U-DEC · 2023-12-16
W
Lukasz Brzeski
KO/TKO · 2023-08-26
L
Marcos Rogerio de Lima
U-DEC · 2023-04-29
W
Chase Sherman
U-DEC · 2022-11-19
Why
GPT
Sergei Pavlovich
72% · KO/TKO
  • Significant reach advantage for Pavlovich (+6 inches)
  • Elite knockout power and finishing history for Pavlovich
  • Cortes-Acosta's lower-level strength of schedule and less proven chin
Write-up

Pavlovich is an elite power puncher with a proven track record of early knockouts against top-tier heavyweights. While Cortes-Acosta displays solid striking volume, high accuracy, and a positive strike differential, he has not faced anyone with Pavlovich's finishing ability. Pavlovich's reach advantage (+6 inches) and aggressive style are likely to overcome Cortes-Acosta's more methodical approach and modest grappling threat.