Back
UFC Fight Night: Walker vs. ZhangHeavyweightMain card
Sergei
Pavlovich
7-3UFC
VS
Waldo
Cortes-Acosta
5-1UFC
Who wins
Pavlovich winsevenCortes-Acosta wins
Elo 57% Pavlovich
GPT 72% Pavlovich
GPT
72%
Pavlovich
Elo
57%
Pavlovich
1611 vs 1564
Tale of the tapeUFC averages
6'3"
Height
6'4"
84"
Reach
78"
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
5.86
Landed / min
5.64
5.03
Absorbed / minlower better
3.60
44%
Strike accuracy
48%
51%
Strike defense
52%
0.00
Takedowns / 15
0.55
0%
TD accuracy
60%
75%
TD defense
60%
0.0
Subs / 15
0.2
How it ends
65%KO/TKO
GPT calls KO/TKO
KO/TKO 65%Submission 3%Decision 32%
Formnewest first
Sergei Pavlovich202 days out
W
Jairzinho Rozenstruik
U-DEC · 2025-02-01
L
Alexander Volkov
U-DEC · 2024-01-20
L
Tom Aspinall
KO/TKO · 2023-11-11
W
Curtis Blaydes
KO/TKO · 2023-04-22
W
Tai Tuivasa
KO/TKO · 2022-12-03
Waldo Cortes-Acosta587 days out
W
Andrei Arlovski
U-DEC · 2024-01-13
W
Robelis Despaigne
U-DEC · 2023-12-16
W
Lukasz Brzeski
KO/TKO · 2023-08-26
L
Marcos Rogerio de Lima
U-DEC · 2023-04-29
W
Chase Sherman
U-DEC · 2022-11-19
Why
GPT
Sergei Pavlovich
72% · KO/TKO
- Significant reach advantage for Pavlovich (+6 inches)
- Elite knockout power and finishing history for Pavlovich
- Cortes-Acosta's lower-level strength of schedule and less proven chin
Write-up
Pavlovich is an elite power puncher with a proven track record of early knockouts against top-tier heavyweights. While Cortes-Acosta displays solid striking volume, high accuracy, and a positive strike differential, he has not faced anyone with Pavlovich's finishing ability. Pavlovich's reach advantage (+6 inches) and aggressive style are likely to overcome Cortes-Acosta's more methodical approach and modest grappling threat.