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Michel Pereira vs Kyle Daukaus

Middleweight · Prelims · UFC Fight Night: Walker vs. Zhang

FINAL: Kyle Daukaus by KO/TKO Elbows
Michel Pereira
Michel Pereira
Age 31 · Elo 1553
LLWWW
119 days since last fight
vs
Kyle Daukaus
Kyle Daukaus
Age 32 · Elo 1505
LLWLL
993 days since last fight

Who wins, by source

Michel PereiraKyle Daukaus
Claude Claude: Michel Pereira 56% Claude: Kyle Daukaus 44% 56% 44% GPT GPT: Michel Pereira 68% GPT: Kyle Daukaus 32% 68% 32% Elo Elo: Michel Pereira 57% Elo: Kyle Daukaus 43% 57% 43%

Each row splits one source's view of the fight. The dashed line is even odds. Where the models sit further from the market, they are claiming an edge.

Tale of the tape

Michel PereiraKyle Daukaus
Strikes landed / min Michel Pereira Strikes landed / min: 4.46 4.46 Kyle Daukaus Strikes landed / min: 3.16 3.16 Strikes absorbed / min Michel Pereira Strikes absorbed / min: 4.23 4.23 Kyle Daukaus Strikes absorbed / min: 2.94 2.94 Striking accuracy Michel Pereira Striking accuracy: 53% 53% Kyle Daukaus Striking accuracy: 53% 53% Striking defense Michel Pereira Striking defense: 52% 52% Kyle Daukaus Striking defense: 42% 42% Takedowns / 15 min Michel Pereira Takedowns / 15 min: 1.27 1.27 Kyle Daukaus Takedowns / 15 min: 1.97 1.97 Takedown defense Michel Pereira Takedown defense: 76% 76% Kyle Daukaus Takedown defense: 79% 79% Sub attempts / 15 min Michel Pereira Sub attempts / 15 min: 0.8 0.8 Kyle Daukaus Sub attempts / 15 min: 2.0 2.0

Career UFC averages. Bars are scaled within each row, so compare left against right, not row against row. The stronger side is highlighted, and for strikes absorbed the lower number is the better one.

How it ends

KO/TKOSubmissionDecision
Claude Claude: KO/TKO 25% 25% Claude: Submission 15% 15% Claude: Decision 60% 60%GPT GPT: KO/TKO 18% 18% GPT: Submission 12% 12% GPT: Decision 70% 70%

Each model's split across the ways this fight can finish, out of 100.

The analysis

Claude
Michel Pereira by Decision, 56.120000000000005% confidence

Simplified prediction due to API limitations. Basic statistical comparison used.

GPT
Michel Pereira by Decision, 68% confidence

Pereira's superior striking accuracy, volume, and defensive metrics give him an advantage in a likely standup-heavy fight. Daukaus presents a significant submission threat, but his low takedown accuracy and Pereira's strong takedown defense reduce his chances of controlling the fight on the ground. Pereira's dynamic striking and ability to avoid extended grappling exchanges favor him over three rounds.