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Johnny Walker vs Zhang Mingyang

Light Heavyweight · Main card · UFC Fight Night: Walker vs. Zhang

FINAL: Johnny Walker by KO/TKO Punches
Johnny Walker
Johnny Walker
Age 33 · Elo 1535
LLLWW
580 days since last fight
vs
Zhang Mingyang
Zhang Mingyang
Age 27 · Elo 1516
WWW
119 days since last fight

Who wins, by source

Johnny WalkerZhang Mingyang
GPT GPT: Johnny Walker 33% GPT: Zhang Mingyang 67% 33% 67% Elo Elo: Johnny Walker 53% Elo: Zhang Mingyang 47% 53% 47%

Each row splits one source's view of the fight. The dashed line is even odds. Where the models sit further from the market, they are claiming an edge.

Tale of the tape

Johnny WalkerZhang Mingyang
Strikes landed / min Johnny Walker Strikes landed / min: 3.87 3.87 Zhang Mingyang Strikes landed / min: 9.23 9.23 Strikes absorbed / min Johnny Walker Strikes absorbed / min: 3.12 3.12 Zhang Mingyang Strikes absorbed / min: 6.39 6.39 Striking accuracy Johnny Walker Striking accuracy: 53% 53% Zhang Mingyang Striking accuracy: 57% 57% Striking defense Johnny Walker Striking defense: 44% 44% Zhang Mingyang Striking defense: 57% 57% Takedowns / 15 min Johnny Walker Takedowns / 15 min: 0.45 0.45 Zhang Mingyang Takedowns / 15 min: no data - Takedown defense Johnny Walker Takedown defense: 57% 57% Zhang Mingyang Takedown defense: 0% 0% Sub attempts / 15 min Johnny Walker Sub attempts / 15 min: 0.9 0.9 Zhang Mingyang Sub attempts / 15 min: no data -

Career UFC averages. Bars are scaled within each row, so compare left against right, not row against row. The stronger side is highlighted, and for strikes absorbed the lower number is the better one.

How it ends

KO/TKOSubmissionDecision
GPT GPT: KO/TKO 70% 70% GPT: Submission 5% GPT: Decision 25% 25%

Each model's split across the ways this fight can finish, out of 100.

The analysis

GPT
Zhang Mingyang by KO/TKO, 67% confidence

Zhang Mingyang's striking output (9.23 SLPM at 57% accuracy) is significantly higher and more accurate than Johnny Walker's, and Zhang absorbs more but defends at a higher rate. Walker's durability has been questionable against powerful strikers, and Zhang's aggressive style and finishing instinct are likely to exploit that. Walker's grappling is not a consistent path and Zhang has shown strong offensive pressure.